Bantamzen
Established Member
That's then not the current infection rate, but an average for over a month. Current positive cases are at around 1,000 per day and have been steadily falling.
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Is it time to relax the 2m social distancing guideline? (WHO guidance is 1m)
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That's then not the current infection rate, but an average for over a month. Current positive cases are at around 1,000 per day and have been steadily falling.
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I've heard it quoted on the radio.
I think it may be extrapolated from the community testing that's taking place.
scotrail158713
Established Member
I’ve decided to change my original vote now, from 1 metre on June 1st to July 1st. The government are planning a fairly normal return to life from the start of July, and 2m distancing just isn’t possible with that.
1m ('where possible') seems sensible and rather natural to me. I'm quite keen on personal space and people closer than 1m (when there is the option of spreading out) feel too close.
It does seem that this should have been done *before* all the shops reopened though - the last thing they needed after three months of forced closure was to go to the expense of refitting for 2m separation, only to have it changed shortly thereafter.
(o/t, but in 'totally predictable news', I note the reports of high-street shops announcing redundancies/closures has already become a daily thing, and the furlough scheme hasn't even ended yet).
Bantamzen
Established Member
Ah, I see. Doing a bit of noising around on the inter'web it seems that 5K figure might be coming from the tracking of the symptoms, as opposed to actual confirmed cases, which incidentally came in at just a touch over 1,000 for 09/06/20 (Data source available below):
England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.
So whilst the actual infection could be as high as 5,000, it could also be quite a bit lower if people are having some of the symptoms, but not actually having the virus. Which is why the track and trace doesn't work as well unless everyone actually gets a test done, and looking at the data that is either not happening or a lot of people are flagging false positives.
Ah, I see. Doing a bit of noising around on the inter'web it seems that 5K figure might be coming from the tracking of the symptoms, as opposed to actual confirmed cases, which incidentally came in at just a touch over 1,000 for 09/06/20 (Data source available below):
England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.www.gov.uk
So whilst the actual infection could be as high as 5,000, it could also be quite a bit lower if people are having some of the symptoms, but not actually having the virus. Which is why the track and trace doesn't work as well unless everyone actually gets a test done, and looking at the data that is either not happening or a lot of people are flagging false positives.
Yes, I suppose the issue with track and trace is that the person has to have symptoms in the first place, which is why they have to extrapolate.
Peter Mugridge
Veteran Member
Wasn't the 5,000 a day the latest Office of National Statistics estimate, down from their previous estimate of 8,000 a day?
Class 33
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Someone on here mentioned that they predict social distancing will be scrapped altogether by mid July. I'd LOVE that to be true. But I can't see the government allowing it to go from 2 metre social distancing straight to gone altogether. Can't see that happening atall. So hopefully in the easing of lockdown due on 4th July, that the 2 metre rule is at least reduced to 1 metre. Then the next easing of lockdown in early August, hopefully and surely then that social distancing is scrapped altogether. We can't go on with this social distancing nonsense for months and months and months!
It will be a bit ridiculous if the next step is it's just reduced to 1.5 metre, as that won't make much difference to the current 2 metres!
A news article I read somewhere predicts that within the next 3 weeks that there will be a day when there will be ZERO Coronavirus deaths in the UK. I agree that that is very likely. It could even possibly be this weekend, as the Saturday and Sunday deaths last week were only about 55. Weekend deaths are of course always lower than the weekday deaths. But I think within the next 3 or certainly 4 weeks, that we would have reached a weekday when the deaths are down to ZERO. We've come a long way now from the HORRENDOUS days back in April when the daily deaths were in the 800's and 900's.
It will be a bit ridiculous if the next step is it's just reduced to 1.5 metre, as that won't make much difference to the current 2 metres!
A news article I read somewhere predicts that within the next 3 weeks that there will be a day when there will be ZERO Coronavirus deaths in the UK. I agree that that is very likely. It could even possibly be this weekend, as the Saturday and Sunday deaths last week were only about 55. Weekend deaths are of course always lower than the weekday deaths. But I think within the next 3 or certainly 4 weeks, that we would have reached a weekday when the deaths are down to ZERO. We've come a long way now from the HORRENDOUS days back in April when the daily deaths were in the 800's and 900's.
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I highly doubt that social distancing will be scrapped altogether by mid July. Chris Whitty originally said at one of the daily briefings that social distancing would be needed till the end of the year at least - this is clearly not practical and I think this is being realised now, but the logical next step is a reduction to 1 metre - a fair balance between the economy and public health, while cases continue to decline. Besides, they need only point towards all the other countries which have a smaller distance to prove that it is not necessary. I think the over-cautiousness is starting to be realised by a lot of MPs, as I'm seeing more articles regarding backbenchers who want the distance reduced.
We have made good progress despite what the moaners would have us believe and we are in a much better position than we were this time 6 weeks ago.
I think some form of social distancing may be required for indoors, but are people seriously telling me I can't play football outdoors until 2021? I don't think I would accept that!
CaptainHaddock
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Some of us are already back playing (albeit 3-a-side walking football with social distancing & no tackling)!
When that day comes we will look ludicrous as a nation if we still (on that day) are being requested to observe the 2m distancing guidance.
Scrotnig
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I think it will be reduced to 1m at some point and for all practical purposes I'm ok with that.
I've never liked anyone coming closer than that in the first place!
Of course, large gatherings like sports events and busy pubs are going to be a problem. I've said for a long time I don't see, for example, crowds being allowed at football matches until August 2021, the scheduled start of the next-but-one season.
Theatres and cinemas - I don't see a way forward for those and sadly I think most will close.
I've never liked anyone coming closer than that in the first place!
Of course, large gatherings like sports events and busy pubs are going to be a problem. I've said for a long time I don't see, for example, crowds being allowed at football matches until August 2021, the scheduled start of the next-but-one season.
Theatres and cinemas - I don't see a way forward for those and sadly I think most will close.
Class 33
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Well whilst 1 metre would be somewhat better and easier than 2 metres, there will still be the ongoing hassle and inconvenience of queues to get into shops, one way systems, etc. Hopefully 1 metre will only be fairly temporary, as it will certainly be ludicrous if this social distancing is still continuing say beyond a couple of months after we've wiped out Coronavirus deaths in the UK. I think Chris Whitty once said "Social distancing is here to stay now.". Even if reduced down to 1 metre, we can't go on like this for months or even years! Many businesses will still not be able to survive financially with even a 1 metre social distancing rule, such as theatres, cinemas and spas to name just a few.
In Scotland this happened for two days in a row, and our lockdown is much more restrictive than the English one. Despite 0 deaths she kept insisting this was a 'dangerous point' and 'it's far too early to consider reducing the distance'.
Today when questioned by a BBC journalist, she said '2m for now is the necessary distance to stay as safe as possible. 1m does reduce transmission to a degree, but we cannot guarantee at this point that if we reduced the distance to 1m that this would not push the 'R' above 1 and undo all the progress we've made'.
I think many cinemas could survive at 1m. Most people go in groups anyway (so presumably could sit together). And you don't get many showings that actually sell out - usually just blockbusters on opening weekend. So, while not ideal, I think they could cope with a reduction in auditorium capacity.
Theatre is rather more difficult I think.
scotrail158713
Established Member
Agree re cinemas. I can only remember being in the cinema once when it was completely full. Any other time it’s almost empty - even “peak” times (weekend etc).
Jamesrob637
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Yes they were mid-treble figures even on weekends then weren't they?
151 today is the lowest weekday total since the 24th of March, when it was 149, so only two more plus I don't think that figures incorporated all settings back then, so 149 was easily over 150 in reality, I'd say probably 160-170.
Enthusiast
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Just worth a mention that it isn't a rule and never has been. It is guidance to be followed where possible. Unfortunately just about every individual and organisation in the UK has taken it upon themselves to interpret it as an absolute rule, sometimes taking ridiculous measures to ensure its implementation. We read that "this [latest relaxation] is to be allowed - subject to social distancing". There is no means of making such a proviso. More than that there are many circumstances where it is neither possible nor practical. Public transport is one (unless capacity is reduced to unsustainable levels). Before the lockdown began Public Health England issued this information about "social distancing":
"Coronaviruses can be spread when people with the virus have close, sustained contact with people who are not infected. This typically means spending more than 15 minutes within two metres of an infected person, such as talking to someone for instance."
It then went on to describe how social distancing may be implemented:
"Any decision will balance both the need to protect people, with the social impact and the importance of maintaining day to day life, such as going to work or school." [my emphasis].
So where has this led us. It's led to this (sensible) guidance being interpreted as absolute law. It means people in the street will swerve into the road rather than pass within two metres of somebody. It's led to arguments in supermarkets when a fellow customer has invaded the two metre bubble of another as he passes by in the aisle. It has led to one way systems in supermarkets (note the "spending more than 15 minutes... in PHE's publication - how many people spend fifteen minutes in one place in a supermarket?). There is nothing to stop shops which open on Monday putting a notice in the window "Please respect your fellow customers by not coming into close proximity" (or something like that). No hazard tape measuring two metre gaps; no footprints on the floor; no one way systems. Totally unnecessary and in many instances totally ridiculous. When shopping in a supermarket the chances of (1) encountering a person with the virus (2) being close enough for them to pass it on to you and (3) being there for long enough are vanishingly small. The balance between protection and the importance of maintaining day to day life has been totally lost. Quite honestly it's about time common sense prevailed and if the government cannot see its way clear to showing some then the public will have to do it for them.
CaptainHaddock
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Good news! Social distancing to be scrapped from Monday!
Bad news - only on the Isle of Man.
"Social distancing rules for the general public are to be scrapped on the Isle of Man from Monday.
Howard Quayle said the decision had been taken to "get society back to normal".
Twenty-four people have died from coronavirus on the island but there have been no new cases for 22 days.
Rules on social distancing would remain in place for those working in health care and elderly care homes, the chief minister said.
The announcement makes the island the first place in the British Isles to drop social distancing."
Bad news - only on the Isle of Man.
Coronavirus: Isle of Man to scrap social distancing rules
People will no longer have to keep two metres apart from Monday, the chief minister says.
www.bbc.co.uk
"Social distancing rules for the general public are to be scrapped on the Isle of Man from Monday.
Howard Quayle said the decision had been taken to "get society back to normal".
Twenty-four people have died from coronavirus on the island but there have been no new cases for 22 days.
Rules on social distancing would remain in place for those working in health care and elderly care homes, the chief minister said.
The announcement makes the island the first place in the British Isles to drop social distancing."
Whilst I tend to agree with your second comment that I don't particularly like it I recognise it is neccessary for a normal society. For example on a train (just to get back on topic!) passengers sat side-by-side will be < 1 metre apart. If we're going to allow people to say block off the seat next to them to maintain 1 metre distance then fares are going to have to rise to pay for the extra space per passenger or we're going to have to have a policy of a train becoming "full" and not taking on any more passengers, even when there is physically room for them to fit. I don't welcome that and it would be a particular problem at times of disruption. It not just trains of course, it applies equally for buses, planes, ferries, trams and so on.
There are other cases such as in queues where if you didn't allow close proxmity the queue would need a lot more space given over to it, which we often don't have. Ticket offices and ticket machines at stations being a good example or queues to get through ticket gates at major terminals. As well as queues to board at bus stations or for flights or ferries and so on.
Using a lift is another. If you live or work in a high-rise building are we going to insist only 1 "household" can occupy the lift at any one time to maintain social distancing? If I worked at (say) the top floor of Canary Wharf (which I don't) I'd not welcome the queue for the lifts that would cause or the alternative "well you could always go up the stairs"!
Similarly concerts, sporting events, festivals etc, aren't likely to be possible or at least financially viable with even 1m distancing unless prices increase signficantly.
Even The Guardian seems to agree on that point...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...etre-distancing-rule-in-england-causing-chaos
...or at least until the end of the article, when they manage to dig up the 'director of the Centre for Behaviour Change at University College London' - not at all sinister job title, that - to point out that actually we probably shouldn't be reducing it at all, because we all still need to be scared. Or something.
Wow that is great news. I hope the UK Government will be watching closely to see how it goes. I hope it goes well and we can do the same!
This is interesting but quite logical given that it's been over three weeks since a case. There's not really any justification for it to continue.Good news! Social distancing to be scrapped from Monday!
Bad news - only on the Isle of Man.
Coronavirus: Isle of Man to scrap social distancing rules
People will no longer have to keep two metres apart from Monday, the chief minister says.www.bbc.co.uk
"Social distancing rules for the general public are to be scrapped on the Isle of Man from Monday.
Howard Quayle said the decision had been taken to "get society back to normal".
Twenty-four people have died from coronavirus on the island but there have been no new cases for 22 days.
Rules on social distancing would remain in place for those working in health care and elderly care homes, the chief minister said.
The announcement makes the island the first place in the British Isles to drop social distancing."
This prompted me to measure the length of my arm, something I don't ever recall doing before ! It was 75 cm. My partners was 67 cm.
As we are both of average height that suggests 2 arm lengths is closer to 1.5m than 1m. I would go so far as to suggest that a single arm's length is actually plenty far enough for 'social distancing' and, of course, is a distance which is very easy to assess - just hold your arm out.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Agreed. Very, very rarely do I have to sit next to someone in the cinema. Indeed, if I look at the seat map and can't get a seat on the end with a gap next to me (OK, you need 2 for 1m, but even so) I will usually look to pick a different film or screening. This very, very rarely actually happens.
For the vast majority of showings other than premieres, you'd easily get away with every other row blocked out and 2 seats between groups without any reduction in the number able to attend the screening. And with allocated seating and people booking mostly in advance, you could contact trace people sat near an infected person easily enough, too.
Bantamzen
Established Member
So basically, we shouldn't reduce the distance because of some little signs? Nothing dystopian there then! Talking of which....
Also known as the Ministry of Love....
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Why would it need to be scrapped? 2m is better than 1m, so why not keep 2m in a given shop if it is workable? Allowing 1m is for places 2m is not workable.
C J Snarzell
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I do think some elements of social distancing should remain. For example, in the local Tesco Express they have screens up and markings on the floor to ensure people retain safe distances. I don't see any reason why this cannot remain in place.
Perhaps you need to say that the distance should be a minimum of 1 metre. If you can operate successfully with 2 metres, then fine, but I think most people would acknowledge that 2 metres is not workable in many pubs and shops, as well as most public transport if the rule is strictly applied.
If the distance is reduced from 2 metres to 1 metre, then the money spent on stickers is not wasted - you can just allow 1 person to stand in the space between two stickers.
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