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Is London becoming a problem again?

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HSTEd

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The infection fatality rate in London is substantially lower than in the rest of the UK, probably because in the rest of the UK its been mainly infected care home patients and it's run out of London care homes to infect and is reduced to infecting the general population.

Couldn’t have happened at a worse time either, as if there is a spike because of this, it will appear in evidence as if it was due to the lifting of restrictions tomorrow, and that could result in the lockdown being reinstated or prolonged simply because people can’t control themselves.

Reimposing the lockdown will be socially and politically untenable.
It has effectively collapsed - about when the often decried behavioural people said it would!

Probably the only tenable solution is to embrace the Sweden model, as we probably shold have done already.
 
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AM9

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Just compare apples with apples and it is slowly decreasing. 113 today means the chances of seeing double digits tomorrow is a bit lower than I initially thought but then we are the days/week after a Bank Holiday weekend so you could probably revise today's and tomorrow's figures 5-10% down had we had 5 working days last week not 4. I estimate today's 113 would've been low-mid 100s after a 5-day working week.

The 7 day rolling average has, however, just started to drop again after having been almost flat during the short working week.
It will probably rise about 2 weeks after June 15th when shop and much else open up. That is what many of the experts are fearing.
 

AM9

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The infection fatality rate in London is substantially lower than in the rest of the UK, probably because in the rest of the UK its been mainly infected care home patients and it's run out of London care homes to infect and is reduced to infecting the general population.



Reimposing the lockdown will be socially and politically untenable.
It has effectively collapsed - about when the often decried behavioural people said it would!

Probably the only tenable solution is to embrace the Sweden model, as we probably shold have done already.
It's all very well predicting the impatience of the poulation, but if a second wave occurs, it will be encumbent of the government to do something to protect everybody, including the impatient and those denial of the problem.
 

Qwerty133

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All those attending this protest should be publicly told through the media to self isolate for two weeks by the government or mayor of London.
I would agree with this, and a similar message should be portrayed for those at that house party last night and those who have been to busy beaches where social distancing hasn't been maintained. While I can completely understand the desire to attend such protests, and strongly believe it would be completely wrong for anyone in attendance to be punished under the corona restrictions, it is unfortunately true that a mass protest is almost the perfect environment for the virus to spread. It would clearly by a tragedy for a protest against the brutal and totally unjustified murder of a black man due to his race to (directly or not) cause the death of more black people because of the virus.
 

HSTEd

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It's all very well predicting the impatience of the poulation, but if a second wave occurs, it will be encumbent of the government to do something to protect everybody, including the impatient and those denial of the problem.

What measures do you propose to impose to enforce this?
Given the cultural limitations, the collapse in public consent, and the limitations in government personnel, there is very little that could be done.
Unless you want to be Ferdinand Schorner, its impractical.
 

scotrail158713

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busy beaches where social distancing hasn't been maintained
Has it though? I’d argue that, even at busy beaches, it’s fairly easy to keep your distance from people. I hope you’re not judging it on those pictures in the news which can tell a completely different story to how spread out people really are.
 

philosopher

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I would agree with this, and a similar message should be portrayed for those at that house party last night and those who have been to busy beaches where social distancing hasn't been maintained. While I can completely understand the desire to attend such protests, and strongly believe it would be completely wrong for anyone in attendance to be punished under the corona restrictions, it is unfortunately true that a mass protest is almost the perfect environment for the virus to spread. It would clearly by a tragedy for a protest against the brutal and totally unjustified murder of a black man due to his race to (directly or not) cause the death of more black people because of the virus.

I agree those at the march should not be fined, even if it is technically illegal under the regulations. To be fair, from photos I have seen, it did look like most of the protesters were wearing masks and it is a windy day today in London. These should help minimise infections from this march. The illegal house party is more concerning, I can’t imagine too many of the party goers voluntary self isolating if told to.
 
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I agree those at the march should not be fined, even if it is technically illegal under the regulations.
Ironic then that some people are making a fuss about a government advisor, who they think might have breached the regulations and should be fined, but those on a demonstration should not. Is it a case of people I agree with - that is OK, people I disagree with - should be fined. Not a good or fair justice system though really, as who decides?. The regulations do not exempt anyone for wearing a mask as far as I know.
 

CaptainHaddock

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It will probably rise about 2 weeks after June 15th when shop and much else open up. That is what many of the experts are fearing.

Whatever your opinion you can always find an "expert" who agrees with you but if other countries are anything to go by, there's very little evidence that opening up shops and tourist attractions has any significant detrimental effect.

There were so-called "experts" predicting a rise in the number of infections after the VE Day parties three weeks ago, but that never happened either.
 

underbank

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Reimposing the lockdown will be socially and politically untenable.
It has effectively collapsed - about when the often decried behavioural people said it would!

Future "lockdowns" will be localised/regionalised as soon as numbers start to increase in a particular area. We can't have a "nationwide" lockdown again as not only will the people not stand for it, it's not really the best way of dealing with different regions have different infection rates.
 

Andy Pacer

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Future "lockdowns" will be localised/regionalised as soon as numbers start to increase in a particular area. We can't have a "nationwide" lockdown again as not only will the people not stand for it, it's not really the best way of dealing with different regions have different infection rates.
I think you're right about people not standing for a further nationwide lock down. The government has been openly praising of people's compliance so far, but I doubt people would willingly go through it again.
 

AM9

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Whatever your opinion you can always find an "expert" who agrees with you but if other countries are anything to go by, there's very little evidence that opening up shops and tourist attractions has any significant detrimental effect.

There were so-called "experts" predicting a rise in the number of infections after the VE Day parties three weeks ago, but that never happened either.
You need to read the news. It isn't 'an expert', it's quite a few, indeed a significant part of SAGE. Other countries waited until their infection rate had fallen well below that which ours is still at rather than giving in when nagged by some of it's citizens and businessmen.
 

CaptainHaddock

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You need to read the news. It isn't 'an expert', it's quite a few, indeed a significant part of SAGE. Other countries waited until their infection rate had fallen well below that which ours is still at rather than giving in when nagged by some of it's citizens and businessmen.

I've read plenty of news, thanks very much but suggestions of what might happen in the future isn't news, it's just speculation.

The SAGE committee consists of over 50 members; obviously they won't all agree on everything, indeed it's often said that if you ask 50 different scientists the same question you'll get 50 different answers! It's clear however that the overwhelming majority of them are recommending easing the lockdown as soon as possible.
 

AM9

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I've read plenty of news, thanks very much but suggestions of what might happen in the future isn't news, it's just speculation.

The SAGE committee consists of over 50 members; obviously they won't all agree on everything, indeed it's often said that if you ask 50 different scientists the same question you'll get 50 different answers! It's clear however that the overwhelming majority of them are recommending easing the lockdown as soon as possible.
Wait and see then.
 

yorksrob

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I don't think we should get too excited. It's not as though they've thrown open the gin palaces and night spots. The new regulations are still very out doorsy and distanced (assuming people follow them).
 

Enthusiast

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it will be encumbent of the government to do something to protect everybody,
I keep on saying that he government cannot protect everybody. The sooner "everybody" learns to accept that the sooner we can move on. People that are particularly vulnerable or those who are apprehensive can remain locked up (though those in the second category should not have their wages paid by the taxpayer). The rest will have to get on with it.
 

yorkie

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I keep on saying that he government cannot protect everybody. The sooner "everybody" learns to accept that the sooner we can move on. People that are particularly vulnerable or those who are apprehensive can remain locked up (though those in the second category should not have their wages paid by the taxpayer). The rest will have to get on with it.
I completely agree but let's try to stick to the question regarding London specifically.
 

Domh245

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The latest estimates for R by PHE and Cambridge University show that the problem is in fact the North West and South West - London is more or less bang on average!


RegionMedian R95% Crl (lower)95% Crl (upper)
East of England0.940.731.14
London0.950.721.20
Midlands0.900.731.07
North East & Yorkshire0.890.751.04
North West1.010.831.18
South East0.970.781.17
South West1.000.771.29
Data from https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
MEN article about it
 

Bedpan

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I thought they were estimating the R rate in London at something like 0.4 a week or two ago, a long way below the rest of the country as the rest of the country seemed to be "catching up". I rise from 0.4 to 0.95 out to be of concern when, thanks to Cummigs effectively saying that what he did was actually okay and so there was no need to for him to apologise, has led to people tending to pay less regard to the social distancing rules.
 

AM9

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I thought they were estimating the R rate in London at something like 0.4 a week or two ago, a long way below the rest of the country as the rest of the country seemed to be "catching up". I rise from 0.4 to 0.95 out to be of concern when, thanks to Cummigs effectively saying that what he did was actually okay and so there was no need to for him to apologise, has led to people tending to pay less regard to the social distancing rules.
That's fine as long as those ignoring the rules in London are happy to be held responsible themselves for perpetuating whatever restrictions that are necessary there.
 

underbank

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That's fine as long as those ignoring the rules in London are happy to be held responsible themselves for perpetuating whatever restrictions that are necessary there.

This is it! People need to start accepting their own role in all this rather than hypocritically blaming others. Breaking a rule because someone else broke a rule is pretty stupid when you look at the risks and repercussions.
 

yorkie

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I thought they were estimating the R rate in London at something like 0.4 a week or two ago, a long way below the rest of the country as the rest of the country seemed to be "catching up"...
There is more testing now; also bear in mind the R value is calculated based on the number of existing cases; the smaller the number of cases, the more it can fluctuate, and what's happening now is not unexpected. See: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/deterioration-in-r-number.205166/
 
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