Is London becoming a problem again?

[Bletchleyite]

This Tweet (which has been widely circulated):

Chris Giles on Twitter

“Only yesterday I was remarking on the increase in ambulance sirens you can hear from my home in North London. Turns out there has been a rise in hospital admissions. Let’s hope this is just a blip”

twitter.com

...shows figures showing that in London (only), hospital admissions due to COVID are back on the up again.

Yet London is a unique problem - it can't do without public transport (most other UK places by and large can) and it's impossible to distance on cramped deep Tube trains.

Are we going to have to revive the idea of a cordon round the M25?

 

[Mag_seven]

Local lockdowns will be the way forward as long as the virus is still circulating - maybe not locking down the whole of London but perhaps individual boroughs?

 

[leightonbd]

Not specific to London, but isn’t now is about the time one would expect to see any increase in the disease arising from increased socialising on the VE Day holiday weekend (three weeks ago now) and the gradual easing thereafter?

 

[scotrail158713]

Not specific to London, but isn’t now is about the time one would expect to see any increase in the disease arising from increased socialising on the VE Day holiday weekend (three weeks ago now) and the gradual easing thereafter?

It would follow previous trends

 

[CaptainHaddock]

This Tweet (which has been widely circulated):

Chris Giles on Twitter

“Only yesterday I was remarking on the increase in ambulance sirens you can hear from my home in North London. Turns out there has been a rise in hospital admissions. Let’s hope this is just a blip”

twitter.com

...shows figures showing that in London (only), hospital admissions due to COVID are back on the up again.

Yet London is a unique problem - it can't do without public transport (most other UK places by and large can) and it's impossible to distance on cramped deep Tube trains.

Are we going to have to revive the idea of a cordon round the M25?

So the evidence for your theory that hospital admissions in London are increasing is an unsubstantiated tweet from a complete stranger? A swift google search reveals no evidence of his claim.

I don't know who Chris Giles is but he sounds like one of those lockdown enthusiasts desperate to cling to every little bit of (unconfirmed) bad news in an effort to get the lockdown extended.

 

[Doctor Fegg]

I don't know who Chris Giles is but he sounds like one of those lockdown enthusiasts desperate to cling to every little bit of (unconfirmed) bad news in an effort to get the lockdown extended.

He's the economics editor of the Financial Times.

 

[Simon11]

Yes the source is wikipedia, however there were only 16 new cases of Covid on 28th May in London. Hardly a major issue with a population of 9 million in London. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_London

 

[yorksrob]

Hot temperatures are also known to cause an increase in excess illness and mortality. Perhaps this may account for some of the additional sirens.

 

[Mojo]

So the evidence for your theory that hospital admissions in London are increasing is an unsubstantiated tweet from a complete stranger? A swift google search reveals no evidence of his claim.

I don't know who Chris Giles is but he sounds like one of those lockdown enthusiasts desperate to cling to every little bit of (unconfirmed) bad news in an effort to get the lockdown extended.

To be fair the chart is legitimate; it comes from the gov weekly reports.

However two things are relevant, firstly the note at the bottom of the chart states that the increases in the final week should be taken with caution as further samples are still coming in.

Secondly, the number of current hospital customers with Covid (the above chart shows new admissions), in London, has fallen to 913 on 27/05 from 1,018 a week earlier.

 

[Mag_seven]

Would COVID admissions to hospitals in an ambulance require the "blues and twos"?

 

[Snow1964]

Hot temperatures are also known to cause an increase in excess illness and mortality. Perhaps this may account for some of the additional sirens.

Traffic has increased quite a lot in London
Many emergency service vehicles did not turn their sirens on a month ago when roads were empty (just used blue lights, except approaching busy junctions), so is this more ambulances call outs, or more use of sirens

 

[yorksrob]

Traffic has increased quite a lot in London
Many emergency service vehicles did not turn their sirens on a month ago when roads were empty (just used blue lights, except approaching busy junctions), so is this more ambulances call outs, or more use of sirens

Yes, I hadn't thought of that !

 

[MotorcycleAlan]

Secondly, the number of current hospital customers with Covid (the above chart shows new admissions), in London, has fallen to 913 on 27/05 from 1,018 a week earlier.

It is bad enough the railway talking of passengers as customers, but please don't tell me this is now how hospital patients are referred to.

 

[Sheps7755]

After working for the London ambulance service previously, the traffic one is a great point.
Also now its less of a concern people will start ringing ambulances again and won't be so concerned about going to hospital as the fear factor seems to be dying down a bit.

 

[Huntergreed]

Interesting the death rate was up to 324 today. That’s the biggest it’s been in a small while, I imagine the scientists will be keeping a very close eye on the statistics this weekend.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Interesting the death rate was up to 324 today. That’s the biggest it’s been in a small while, I imagine the scientists will be keeping a very close eye on the statistics this weekend.

I don't think it is (though it is still high), you can see the graphs here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888803/2020-05-29_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides_with_Annex.pdf

 

[Domh245]

Interesting the death rate was up to 324 today. That’s the biggest it’s been in a small while, I imagine the scientists will be keeping a very close eye on the statistics this weekend.

I think that in no small part that'll be reporting delays. Tracking the hospital deaths (as they're consistent throughout!) they've plateaued at about 100 a day for the last week or so but there's been a spike in the previous two days where deaths were reported from months previously, indeed the earliest death reported today came from 19th March!

 

[30907]

Interesting the death rate was up to 324 today. That’s the biggest it’s been in a small while, I imagine the scientists will be keeping a very close eye on the statistics this weekend.

Slightly lower than previous 2 days.

 

[sheff1]

Interesting the death rate was up to 324 today. That’s the biggest it’s been in a small while,

It is actually lower than the previous 2 days, which were 412 & 377. Also bear in mind that there can be delays in reporting, so the daily figures are less meaningful than longer term rolling figures.

 

[Busaholic]

After Weston (Super Mare) General Hospital was closed to all new admissions, even A and E, earlier in the week because of a surge in Covid cases, including among NHS staff, there were many tweets and Facebook stuff yesterday from Bristol residents concerning greatly increased helicopter activity, and two people able to see the Royal Infirmary's helipad from their homes said they'd seen a lot of helicopters land there during the day. Given Bristol's proximity to Weston, this certainly presents food for thought.

 

[30907]

After Weston (Super Mare) General Hospital was closed to all new admissions, even A and E, earlier in the week because of a surge in Covid cases, including among NHS staff, there were many tweets and Facebook stuff yesterday from Bristol residents concerning greatly increased helicopter activity, and two people able to see the Royal Infirmary's helipad from their homes said they'd seen a lot of helicopters land there during the day. Given Bristol's proximity to Weston, this certainly presents food for thought.

In this case Covid was reportedly spreading IN the WSM hospital not in the community.

 

[Busaholic]

In this case Covid was reportedly spreading IN the WSM hospital not in the community.

That's hardly reassuring: if that is the case, the repercussions for the community could be a lot greater and sooner. If I lived in Weston I'd be very concerned, and I don't scare easily.

 

[MikeWM]

Number of new cases in the country per day continues to trend down fairly rapidly - despite an ever-increasing number of tests being performed. I see no sign whatsoever of a spike due to (mild) loosening of the lockdown over the past few weeks, or the much-mentioned 'VE day conga lines'. Same trend as with pretty much every European country.

Daily death figures, unfortunately, will lag somewhat on the way down. Partly due to reporting delays, partly due to the fact that people will sadly die due to complications caused by a nasty case of the virus (eg. after a long spell on a ventilator) which may be many weeks or even months after first getting it.

 

[Mogster]

That's hardly reassuring: if that is the case, the repercussions for the community could be a lot greater and sooner. If I lived in Weston I'd be very concerned, and I don't scare easily.

Drive carefully and lay off the DIY, it’s not the time to make yourself into an avoidable hospital case...

 

[yorkie]

After Weston (Super Mare) General Hospital was closed to all new admissions, even A and E, earlier in the week because of a surge in Covid cases, including among NHS staff, there were many tweets and Facebook stuff yesterday from Bristol residents concerning greatly increased helicopter activity, and two people able to see the Royal Infirmary's helipad from their homes said they'd seen a lot of helicopters land there during the day. Given Bristol's proximity to Weston, this certainly presents food for thought.

Do you have a reliable source for this?

According to source I've read it was more of an internal issue within the hospital:

Asymptomatic staff test Covid-19 positive at Somerset hospital

Unions call for answers after admissions stopped at Weston general hospital to halt the spread of the virus

www.theguardian.com

A hospital that this week shut its doors to new patients in a bid to control a Covid-19 outbreak has said that as many as 40% of staff from a cohort tested after contact with infected patients were found to be positive.

The development comes amid heightened concerns about the spread of coronavirus among NHS workers after the trust governing Weston general hospital in Somerset said there was “an emerging picture” of staff with no symptoms testing positive.

 

[Bletchleyite]

An interesting question there would be why - a lack of suitable PPE, or perhaps it being worn incorrectly?

 

[Busaholic]

Do you have a reliable source for this?

According to source I've read it was more of an internal issue within the hospital:

Asymptomatic staff test Covid-19 positive at Somerset hospital

Unions call for answers after admissions stopped at Weston general hospital to halt the spread of the virus

www.theguardian.com

I'm not understanding your question.

 

[yorkie]

I'm not understanding your question.

I am asking if you have a source for your claim; a hyperlink to a reputable source and a quote from it would be useful (and required by forum rules when you are referring to external content)

 

[Djgr]

The time between infection and death is around three/four weeks and so any increase in deaths (which have steadily fallen consistently over the past six weeks and are now around 1/3 peak) would not relate to any recent change in behaviour/restrictions.

In addition it is really hard to become infected in the open air and so all these recent pictures of (allegedly) crowded beaches are a complete irrelevance.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Who reckons double digits death toll Monday if not Sunday? I predict low-100s Sunday and 95-99 Monday, giving an average of around 100. Last weekend averaged 125 (Sunday, Monday and Tuesday cumulative figures) and the previous weekend averaged 165 (Sunday and Monday cumulative figures).