Is the National Grid sufficiently resilient?

[Intellectual98]

V2G is starting. I know of a few people who have had their chargers converted.

To clarify I meant large scale adoption of it. Most EVs aren't capable, the only one I know is the Leaf and UK trials are just starting iirc.

That depends on the fault.
A fire in the electrical switchyard or similar could result in the circuit breakers openly instantenously with little warning.
Or an emergency scram.

Or if there is a fault that needs a shutdown the operators might have a few minutes to phone the grid operator and tell them they are about to trip before it happens.

Interesting. I would assume a facility which such a high output and therefore impact on the network would be designed with redundancy in all areas.
A couple of minutes warning could be vital to prepare for a large loss in generation capabilities.

 

[AM9]

In a post-carbon all-electric world, grid collapse is a matter of life and death.
If this had escalated further we could have been looking at mass blackouts for hours whilst they ran the Black Start procedure.

If that happened in mid-winter, people would have died. Potentially thousands.

And the carbon emissions for spinning reserve is relatively minor.

That people may die is not an excuse for relaxing the transition. Global warning will kill billions if appropriate measures are dropped because it is easier to pretend there isn't a problem. There needs to be sufficient capacity in sustinable sources. Eventually those in power will realise that, hopefully before it is too late.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't think any fossil plant can react to a loss of nearly 2GW in a matter of minutes. It still takes time to get relatively fast reacting gas generators up to speed. Load shedding (preferably intelligent*) and battery backups have by far the fastest reaction times. Fast reaction is the best way to prevent a runaway grid collapse.

We now have CCGT plants that can start from standby in less than ten minutes.
And Dinorwig demonstrates that this sort of fault should not collapse a grid.
1800MW from zero in 16 seconds if the plant is on standby.
National Grid and Government just cut corners and they've destroyed the reliability of one of the best engineered grids in the world.

V2G is unfortunately going to be hopelessly uneconomic, the losses from going all the way from the HV system to the LV system, into the car, out of the car, through the LV system back to the HV system are just enormous.

That people may die is not an excuse for relaxing the transition. Global warning will kill billions if appropriate measures are dropped because it is easier to pretend there isn't a problem. There needs to be sufficient capacity in sustinable sources. Eventually those in power will realise that, hopefully before it is too late.

Leaving aside that it is almost certainly far too late.
Burning enough gas to maintain spinning reserve to stop the grid falling over will not significantly affect carbon emissions.

And that is leaving aside things like Dinorwig that could prevent this.
What is needed is for the Government to admit that the private sector is not capable of responsibly running the energy system and return to the system that built the most reliable grid in the world in the first place.

 

[Intellectual98]

We now have CCGT plants that can start from standby in less than ten minutes.
And Dinorwig demonstrates that this sort of fault should not collapse a grid.
1800MW from zero in 16 seconds if the plant is on standby.
National Grid and Government just cut corners and they've destroyed the reliability of one of the best engineered grids in the world.

I totally agree of cutting corners and underinvestment being an issue along with poor long and mid term planning. All caused by sucsessive governemnts.However there are other solutions to this problem rather than idling fossil generators and that was my point.

 

[AM9]

To clarify I meant large scale adoption of it. Most EVs aren't capable, the only one I know is the Leaf and UK trials are just starting iirc. ...

Mandated that all new cars/chargers are compliant from some time in 2020. The total number of EVS on the road by then will be a small fraction of those using compliant chargers in say 2025 or 2030.

 

[Dren Ahmeti]

We now have CCGT plants that can start from standby in less than ten minutes.
And Dinorwig demonstrates that this sort of fault should not collapse a grid.
1800MW from zero in 16 seconds if the plant is on standby.
National Grid and Government just cut corners and they've destroyed the reliability of one of the best engineered grids in the world.

V2G is unfortunately going to be hopelessly uneconomic, the losses from going all the way from the HV system to the LV system, into the car, out of the car, through the LV system back to the HV system are just enormous.



Leaving aside that it is almost certainly far too late.
Burning enough gas to maintain spinning reserve to stop the grid falling over will not significantly affect carbon emissions.

And that is leaving aside things like Dinorwig that could prevent this.
What is needed is for the Government to admit that the private sector is not capable of responsibility running the energy system and return to the system that built the most reliable grid in the world in the first place.

The issue is we do not have any reasonable way to store the massive amounts of excess energy we do and can produce, which causes a constant balancing act between supply and demand.

 

[AM9]

I totally agree of cutting corners and underinvestment being an issue along with poor long and mid term planning. All caused by sucsessive governemnts.However there are other solutions to this problem rather than idling fossil generators and that was my point.

Maintaining CO2 generating systems is not a solution unless everybody stops believing that climate change is a serious threat to all.

 

[AM9]

The issue is we do not have any reasonable way to store the massive amounts of excess energy we do and can produce, which causes a constant balancing act between supply and demand.

Then ultimately, we will have to live within our means.

 

[Intellectual98]

Mandated that all new cars/chargers are compliant from some time in 2020. The total number of EVS on the road by then will be a small fraction of those using compliant chargers in say 2025 or 2030.

The only mandate I am aware of is for smart chargers, which could potentially give load balancing but there's currently no central way to control this. If your smart charger isn't directly supplied by your energy supplier then there's no load balancing available.

I'm not aware of any requirement for new cars to be V2G compliant, and even if there was a mandate for this then it's likely this would be new models of ev only. As cars run on a 5-10 year product cycle that would take a long time to filter down to all new cars.

 

[hwl]

Then ultimately, we will have to live within our means.

They are looking at adding another pumped storage station in Scotland.

 

[AM9]

They are looking at adding another pumped storage station in Scotland.

That's reassuring, - so not everbody shrugs it off as 'too difficult' (i.e can't be bothered to change my ways).

 

[Intellectual98]

"v2g is unforortunately going to be hopelessly uneconomic, the losses from going all the way from the HV system to the LV system, into the car, out of the car, through the LV system back to the HV system are just enormous."

V2G is already economical. Nothing different here to large scale battery storage installations, which are already in place and making money.
Electric prices during high renewable generation can even become negative. The grid pay you to use electricity, you can then sell that back in peak demand. It might not be economic for the end user as we will be screwed on generation and sale prices just like on home solar installs, but for a company that can guarantee a minimum emergency reserve of power to the grid it would be very lucrative.

 

[HSTEd]

Electric prices during high renewable generation can even become negative. The grid pay you to use electricity, you can then sell that back in peak demand. It might not be economic for the end user as we will be screwed on generation and sale prices just like on home solar installs, but for a company that can guarantee a minimum emergency reserve of power to the grid it would be very lucrative.

Grid prices only go negative because of the huge market distortions inherent in the current subsidy system for renewables.
It's not economic but the system is embraced because it makes financiers more money this way.

V2G has all the downsides of large scale battery installations but with far higher losses because the batteries will be on the end of the LV distribution system rather than directly adjacent to the HV system.
Oh and your batteries have to be fully charged in the morning of there will be hell to pay.

And your batteries have no proper thermal management, and the power electronics used will have been value engineered to death because they are designed to charge the batteries, not be most efficietn for V2G operations that benefit someone who is not the person who paid for the charger.

 

[Bald Rick]

MW or GW?

GW amended!

That certainly wasn't my experience. I alighted a westbound Circle line train at Farringdon at about 17:40. When I arrived on the northbound TL platform there was an 8-car 700 there, quite full with one pair of doors open but all others closed. After about 5 minutes, they were opened and it was emptied. There was a cluster of passengers surrounding a uniformed member of staff asking questions about how to get to various destinations. I managed to ask between two of them: "are they accepting TL tickets at Euston?" He said yes so I went back to the LU platforms and boarded the first westbound train to Euston Square. On checking RTT, I went to the P9,10 & 11 ramp as there was a Tring train due at 18:34. I asked a uniformed staff member whether they were accepting TL tickets and he said yes. He asked me of my destination to which I said St Albans Abbey via Watford Junction so he said that I should get an MKC bound train from P9, which was fast to WFJ so I would be in time for the 18:56 Abbey Flyer.
All went well and I was in SAA on time at 19:12. So there was no issue with ticket acceptance for me.

Exactly the trains I advised some of my friends to catch. Others were a couple of hours later having sat it out in the pub.

They are looking at adding another pumped storage station in Scotland.

Coire Glas. 1.5GW. All gone quiet on it for a year or two. I’m walking in the Glen concerned in a few weeks.

 

[Intellectual98]

Grid prices only go negative because of the huge market distortions inherent in the current subsidy system for renewables.
It's not economic but the system is embraced because it makes financiers more money this way.

V2G has all the downsides of large scale battery installations but with far higher losses because the batteries will be on the end of the LV distribution system rather than directly adjacent to the HV system.
Oh and your batteries have to be fully charged in the morning of there will be hell to pay.

And your batteries have no proper thermal management, and the power electronics used will have been value engineered to death because they are designed to charge the batteries, not be most efficietn for V2G operations that benefit someone who is not the person who paid for the charger.

Most EVs barring the leaf have great thermal management and a daily cycle would only use a small fraction of the capacity of the battery. Considering most EVs can fast charge at nearly 100KW, I'm sure the thermals on a 7.2KW V2G system would be perfectly within its capabilities.


The batteries will always be fully charged by the morning as overnight is when currently the electric is cheapest, so it will charge at that time. Why would being at the LV end of the system cause worse efficiency, surely it would be more efficient as it is closer to point of use.

 

[hwl]

Coire Glas. 1.5GW. All gone quiet on it for a year or two. I’m walking in the Glen concerned in a few weeks.

A few noises heard on it about a fortnight ago...

 

[ed1971]

That people may die is not an excuse for relaxing the transition. Global warning will kill billions if appropriate measures are dropped because it is easier to pretend there isn't a problem. There needs to be sufficient capacity in sustinable sources. Eventually those in power will realise that, hopefully before it is too late.

There are bigger issues too such as population explosion and the depletion of rainforests. From what I gather an area the size of Wales is being taken down every week. A lot of it for rearing cattle. https://www.conserve-energy-future.com/various-deforestation-facts.php

Two Interesting videos here:
https://www.conserve-energy-future....s-that-prove-global-warming-might-be-hoax.php
https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/leftist-climate-change-lies-exposed These needs closely listening to all through with an open mind.

The 'Man On Earth' series presented by Tony Robinson a few years back mentioned that we are due for another ice age in the next 1500 years and that CO2 emissions are helping to delay it. There is some in depth info about ice ages here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2016-06-15/what-is-an-ice-age-explainer/7185002

 

[HSTEd]

Most EVs barring the leaf have great thermal management

They have great thermal management by EV standards.
The standards for static battery installations are rather different, given that the batteries don't have to fit into a moving box.

Do you think static battery operators tolerate a situation where the battery pack is allowed to get below freezing?

and a daily cycle would only use a small fraction of the capacity of the battery.

Then only a tiny fraction of the storage capacity of the EV fleet will be available...... which starts to undermine the point of the entire thing.

The batteries will always be fully charged by the morning as overnight is when currently the electric is cheapest, so it will charge at that time.

Electricity is currently cheapest then, but in our glorious renewable future we have no idea when electricity willl be cheapest, indeed it will potentially change from day to day.
The charging load is also large enough that an EV dominated future would make nightime the peak time.

This gets even more extreme when we consider that solar produces absolutely no power on winter nights.

Why would being at the LV end of the system cause worse efficiency, surely it would be more efficient as it is closer to point of use.

That assumes the load is perfectly colocated with the cars.
It isn't.
Cars aren't distributed the same way as energy demand, for example a car in teh suburbs will have to support load in the city centre, so the power effectively flows up the LV system, into the HV system, traverses the HV system to the load centre and then flows through the LV system a second time.

 

[AM9]

"v2g is unforortunately going to be hopelessly uneconomic, the losses from going all the way from the HV system to the LV system, into the car, out of the car, through the LV system back to the HV system are just enormous."

V2g doesn't have to provide power into the HV network, just like domestic PV installations, (unless everybody on the same MV circuit is in total using less power than all the locally connected EVs are offering). It just means that less current is drawn from the MV/HV supply for all loads.

V2G is already economical. Nothing different here to large scale battery storage installations, which are already in place and making money.
Electric prices during high renewable generation can even become negative. The grid pay you to use electricity, you can then sell that back in peak demand. It might not be economic for the end user as we will be screwed on generation and sale prices just like on home solar installs, but for a company that can guarantee a minimum emergency reserve of power to the grid it would be very lucrative.

The whole issue will be managed by 'Smart Charging'. That will ensure not only that energy used for transport is charged at a higher rate than for other domestic useage, but also that power is charged according to the source and network costs in providing it. Those who insist on their vehicles being fully charged as soon after they arrive home on a winter's evening will be obliged to pay more than less impatient owners who are prepared to charge overnight or other times when there is spare capacity.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

13 June 2019: Unite union spokesman "The closure of Fiddlers Ferry Power Station increases the likelihood of possible future power cuts"
9 August 2019: massive power cuts!

I think Fiddlers Ferry is on some standby contract until it closes.
But I suspect it is only activated for winter peak use or for planned outages elsewhere on the network.
There's no way it could have been mobilised for the 2-hour-ish outage yesterday.

Has the Unite man seen the multiple forests of wind turbines out in Liverpool Bay and in the Welsh hills?
Not to mention gas fired stations at Rocksavage (practically opposite Fiddlers Ferry) and Rockliffe (Flint).

 

[Intellectual98]

They have great thermal management by EV standards.
The standards for static battery installations are rather different, given that the batteries don't have to fit into a moving box.

Do you think static battery operators tolerate a situation where the battery pack is allowed to get below freezing?


Then only a tiny fraction of the storage capacity of the EV fleet will be available...... which starts to undermine the point of the entire thing.


Electricity is currently cheapest then, but in our glorious renewable future we have no idea when electricity willl be cheapest, indeed it will potentially change from day to day.
The charging load is also large enough that an EV dominated future would make nightime the peak time.

This gets even more extreme when we consider that solar produces absolutely no power on winter nights.



That assumes the load is perfectly colocated with the cars.
It isn't.
Cars aren't distributed the same way as energy demand, for example a car in teh suburbs will have to support load in the city centre, so the power effectively flows up the LV system, into the HV system, traverses the HV system to the load centre and then flows through the LV system a second time.

1, All EVs have battery heaters for very cold operation
2, A large fraction is available, but usually wouldn't be used except in extreme circumstances.
3, Night time will be the cheapest for the foreseeable future, until we no longer rely on nuclear to cover our base load.
4, Most will be used locally, some might be sent a bit further, but I can't see how these losses will be much greater than other situations. At source power stations are 22kv and are put through transformers to reach grid voltage, just as LV V2G would need to be. Transformers are pretty efficient at what they do and they work in both directions. Over 99% efficient in some modern designs.

 

[HSTEd]

1, All EVs have battery heaters for very cold operation

Yes, but the definition of "very cold" is again much different to that seen in static installations.
It's matter of degree.

2, A large fraction is available, but usually wouldn't be used except in extreme circumstances.

Then we will get into arguments about "extreme" circumstances, and we will see the same corner-cutting that lead to this situation as the definition is continually revised to the benefit of the grid operators.

3, Night time will be the cheapest for the foreseeable future, until we no longer rely on nuclear to cover our base load.

Nuclear does not even dominate the baseload supply today!
Rollout of electric cars will change that within 20 years. Charging power of electric cars could easily top 20+GWe.

And thats before anyone tries any electric bus shenanigans.

4, Most will be used locally, some might be sent a bit further, but I can't see how these losses will be much greater than other situations. Transformers are pretty efficient at what they do and they work in both directions. Over 99% efficient in some modern designs.

Transformers are not the major losses.
The major losses will be in the LV conductors
There is reason transformers are normally rigged for 250V output on the secondary side.
Losses are substantial there.

 

[Intellectual98]

Yes, but the definition of "very cold" is again much different to that seen in static installations.
It's matter of degree.


Then we will get into arguments about "extreme" circumstances, and we will see the same corner-cutting that lead to this situation as the definition is continually revised to the benefit of the grid operators.

Nuclear does not even dominate the baseload supply today!
Rollout of electric cars will change that within 20 years. Charging power of electric cars could easily top 20+GWe.

And thats before anyone tries any electric bus shenanigans.

Transformers are not the major losses.
The major losses will be in the LV conductors
There is reason transformers are normally rigged for 250V output on the secondary side.
Losses are substantial there.

You are a huge bundle of negativity, but haven't provided much in the way of other solutions. Pumped hydro is great, but not a long term solution, there's not enough glens in Scotland even if we filled them all, and I'm pretty sure there will be some losses in the 300 miles to get the leccy back to London.

 

[AM9]

There are bigger issues too such as population explosion and the depletion of rainforests. From what I gather an area the size of Wales is being taken down every week. A lot of it for rearing cattle. https://www.conserve-energy-future.com/various-deforestation-facts.php

Two Interesting videos here:
https://www.conserve-energy-future....s-that-prove-global-warming-might-be-hoax.php
https://www.heartland.org/multimedia/videos/leftist-climate-change-lies-exposed These needs closely listening to all through with an open mind.

The 'Man On Earth' series presented by Tony Robinson a few years back mentioned that we are due for another ice age in the next 1500 years and that CO2 emissions are helping to delay it. There is some in depth info about ice ages here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2016-06-15/what-is-an-ice-age-explainer/7185002

All arguments to be used by deniers against biting the bullet over CO2 production. We will eventually have to 'cut our coat according to our cloth', as in reducing activities that cause ever increasing climate change. If that isn't addressed soon, it will be too late to do anything as the climate will change even without humans adding to CO2. Everybody is seeing a comfort zone called 'net zero carbon emissions'. That may not be enough, - it may be necessary to actually have a net negative CO2 emissions state.

This thread is now so far off topic. The bottom line is that the national grid has been allowed to slip back to a 'just about managing' capacity and has been/will be caught out from time to time. There's little chance of a right-wing government changing it's view that it should be run as a profit source rather than as an essential service unless they can find somebody to blame. Although we havent seen any official analysis of the breakdown, it looks like a money-saving relaxation in 2014 was at least part to blame, so we'll stumble onwards to the next major network collapse. It seems that there was no loss of life this time so maybe that is why there is just rhetoric and finger-pointing going on at the moment. Maybe our railways need less efficient but more robust power equipment to cope with what might become a 3rd-world like national grid.

 

[AngusH]

Without wishing to bring politics into this, I think we import a lot of power from the EU when we are short. If we leave without a deal, do we know if those extra supplies will still be available?

Thankfully ofgem has been negotiating with the various countries in case there is a "no deal" brexit.

Details of new agreements is here:

https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publicatio...nectors-apply-event-uk-leaves-eu-without-deal

I believe it was always done on commercial terms, so if it made sense before it will probably continue to happen.

 

[yorksrob]

Clearly not.

Does anyone else remember, we had a massive power cut in London about ten years ago, due to bits of the grid overloading and everything else following.

Has the electricity industry acted on it !

 

[AM9]

Clearly not.

Does anyone else remember, we had a massive power cut in London about ten years ago, due to bits of the grid overloading and everything else following.

Has the electricity industry acted on it !

They've likely done some modelling to determine the probability of a recurrence, then the collateral damage that such an event might cost, then somebody (in accounts or a government ministry) has decided that it would cost too much and they will wing it. The question is as always in contingency planning, how much do we (the end users) want to pay for it? A friend who worked for the CEGB said today that they probably have not done anything wrong as far as this event is concerned and there will probably be a similar event in 10 or so years hence.

 

[yorksrob]

I pe

They've likely done some modelling to determine the probability of a recurrence, then the collateral damage that such an event might cost, then somebody (in accounts or a government ministry has decided that it would cost too much and they will wing it. The question is as always in contingency planning, how much do we (the end users) want to pay for it? A friend who worked for the CEGB said today that they probably not done anything wrong as far as this event is concerned and there will probably be a similar event in 10 or so years hence.

Fair point. I suppose the last one was around a decade ago.

Do we trust the next one to be though !

The bigger picture is how do we incentivise the grid, to ensure that the lights remain on !

 

[PartyOperator]

The issue in this case was not one of generating capacity - it's summer and fairly warm so demand is well below what the system can supply. It's just that most generating units take a while to start up so responding to the loss of two large generators in a short space of time is hard. When most coal and AGR units are gone in a few years it could get tricky though.

Once the EPRs are up and running that will be a roughly 1750MW potential loss of generation (net output is more like 1600MW but house loads still need to be met immediately after tripping and the single turbine-generator is rated for 1750 or so). It takes a few seconds to go from full output to nothing in an automatic trip. Not sure how the grid will deal with this, but they've had long enough to come up with a plan and I'm sure it will be ready by the time the reactors start up. Large offshore wind farms and new interconnectors will present similar challenges.

I'm not too worried about the ten-yearly type events like this. It happens and it's disruptive, but so are hot weather, ice, snow, floods, wind, IT failures, accidents on the roads, fires, volcanic ash and all the rest. Most power outages are caused by faults on the distribution networks anyway.

 

[AM9]

I pe


Fair point. I suppose the last one was around a decade ago.

Do we trust the next one to be though !

The bigger picture is how do we incentivise the grid, to ensure that the lights remain on !

I'm not sure what you mean by incentivise?