Keolis Amey Wales - Future Rolling Stock

[superalbs]

The 175s are unreliable rubbish (with nice interiors, though needing a bit of a tidy, but they are not reliable). 150s are getting old but are very reliable workhorses.

175s also aren't useful for the high loadings Northern get due to their door layout. They would be suitable for Northern Connect (and indeed have operated those services in the past), but there's already new stock on order for that.

They wouldn't go unwanted on the Cardiff-Pompey route! Far better than a dreadfully unsuitable Turbo anyway.

But that's all assuming that this is a full fleet replacement. We've been surprised before.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Can we see 158s with their expensive ETCS kit being sent away?
I suppose Northern, or maybe EMT, GWR etc could always use them to replace 150s.
Be interesting to see what happens to Chester depot (currently Alstom 175s)

 

[507021]

and the awful 175s in the bin.

Excluding the Pacers, I don't think any DMUs should be scrapped any time soon.

 

[Dai Corner]

I'd be surprised if there wasn't full fleet replacement over the lifetime of the franchise. In fifteen years' time everything but the 175s would be well over forty years old. Even they'd be 33 years old.

Mr Skate's teasing tweets give no timescale for the £750m expenditure.

 

[PHILIPE]

Can we see 158s with their expensive ETCS kit being sent away?
I suppose Northern, or maybe EMT, GWR etc could always use them to replace 150sp.
Be interesting to see what happens to Chester depot (currently Alstom 175s)

I can't see the 158s being transferred away. Would be rather expensive to fir another fleet with ETCS unless somebody wants to throw money away.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can't see the 158s being transferred away. Would be rather expensive to fir another fleet with ETCS unless somebody wants to throw money away.

If it was built into new stock from day one it would not be expensive (in proportion with the cost of new stock) to do so.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I'd be surprised if there wasn't full fleet replacement over the lifetime of the franchise. In fifteen years' time everything but the 175s would be well over forty years old. Even they'd be 33 years old.

Mr Skate's teasing tweets give no timescale for the £750m expenditure.

Yes it's details we need. A promise of new trains in 10 years time is not what folk are wanting!

 

[Erniescooper]

If it was built into new stock from day one it would not be expensive (in proportion with the cost of new stock) to do so.

Class 195/331 come fitted with ETCS and Mk5a and 397 come prepped ready for ETCS.

 

[sw1ller]

Class 195/331 come fitted with ETCS and Mk5a and 397 come prepped ready for ETCS.

And having used the ERTMS on the 158s in mode 0, all I can say is they’re outdated, slow and rather unreliable. Think it’s time for a refit anyway.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Can we see 158s with their expensive ETCS kit being sent away?
I suppose Northern, or maybe EMT, GWR etc could always use them to replace 150s.
Be interesting to see what happens to Chester depot (currently Alstom 175s)

Beware the sunk cost fallacy. The fact that the 158s cost so much to fit with ETCS doesn't mean a single thing about whether it's a good idea to keep them moving forward. If new stock is better and cheaper, then it's a better idea. In any case, the cost of fitting ETCS to the 158s was an experimental one which needed to be done for the British rail industry to gain knowledge of the new ETCS world.

I'd be surprised if there wasn't full fleet replacement over the lifetime of the franchise. In fifteen years' time everything but the 175s would be well over forty years old. Even they'd be 33 years old.

Mr Skate's teasing tweets give no timescale for the £750m expenditure.

It's not common for new franchise contracts to involve introducing stock well after the start date. If the choice of new trains is made by the private sector bidders, then there's not a lot of incentive to introduce trains any later than absolutely necessary. Introducing new trains as soon as possible means the new assets have as long as possible under the same contract to deliver a return on investment. A longer-term replacement plan could be included in the contract but this would have to be at the direction of the responsible government. ATW doesn't have a vast number of trains which wouldn't be suitable for replacement in a standard start-of-franchise timeframe. The 175s might well end up being replaced early if they're no longer the best option for the rail network.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

A 15-year franchise does give more scope for complete fleet replacement.
That was the basis of the original 15-year franchises on West Coast, Cross-Country, South Eastern and LT&S, where all rolling stock was replaced.
Sadly that approach didn't work for the 2003 Wales & Borders franchise.

 

[Gareth Marston]

skates tweet says "new" not new build. Just saying....

 

[AlexNL]

I'm pretty sure that "new" can be interpreted as "new built" here, or do you think that KeolisAmey could get away with a batch of bi-mode 455's and bi-mode 707's?

 

[Bletchleyite]

skates tweet says "new" not new build. Just saying....

I think we can be fairly sure D78s aren't involved from what's been said so far.

 

[Dai Corner]

How many vehicles would £750m buy or £50m p.a. pay to lease?

ATW have about 250 DMU cars I believe.

 

[theblackwatch]

I'm pretty sure that "new" can be interpreted as "new built" here, or do you think that KeolisAmey could get away with a batch of bi-mode 455's and bi-mode 707's?

Or a fleet of ePacer 144s perhaps?

 

[cactustwirly]

They wouldn't go unwanted on the Cardiff-Pompey route! Far better than a dreadfully unsuitable Turbo anyway.

But that's all assuming that this is a full fleet replacement. We've been surprised before.

Mountains & Molehills spring to mind, 166s will provide the Pompey route with a much needed capacity boost.
With some new seats they'll be perfect for the route.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Well, it seems like it *is* full fleet replacement (and significant expansion) - part tram and part heavy rail.

I bet Northern are happy - plenty of potential 15x for them now...

 

[WatcherZero]

Five new stations including in Cardiff at Gabalfa, Crwys Road, Loudoun Square and the Flourish (next to the Wales Millennium Centre), serviced by tram-trains that will run on battery power on street across Cardiff. One new station at Nantgarw to serve DWP facility.

£1.9bn infrastructure investment, £800m in trains increasing capacity by 65% and 95% fleet replacement by new build units rather than mileage by 2023. (other 5% new but not new build?) final choice of vehicle design subject to track surveys.
50% of new rolling stock to be built by CAF in Wales.
650 new staff including 30 apprentices a year.
100% renewable powered with 50% welsh sourced, cycle lockers and secure stations accreditation.
29% increases in services, 61% on Sundays
Smart ticketing, cheaper off peak, and reductions in fares in North Wales and at 50% of Valleys stations

 

[Roose]

'More old trains to be freed to send to the north' will hardly excite Northern's users!

The fairly complete transformation of fleets for franchises let after Northern rather suggests the north missed out yet again by comparison and may be travelling on the fleet with the oldest average age.

 

[AlexNL]

95% fleet replacement by new build units rather than mileage by 2023. (other 5% new but not new build?)

WalesOnline writes:

"All trains will be replaced by 2023 when 95% of journeys (though not on mileage) will be on brand new trains"

The remaining 5% is for journeys with other operators, perhaps?

 

[Dai Corner]

WalesOnline writes:

"All trains will be replaced by 2023 when 95% of journeys (though not on mileage) will be on brand new trains"

The remaining 5% is for journeys with other operators, perhaps?

Or on the Cl 175s? They're only about 18 years old so plenty of life in them yet.

 

[dp21]

WalesOnline writes:

"All trains will be replaced by 2023 when 95% of journeys (though not on mileage) will be on brand new trains"

The remaining 5% is for journeys with other operators, perhaps?

My suspicion is that this will be on some sort of cascaded stock. It doesn't say that ALL these trains they'll be replacing the old ones with will be brand new.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Sounds like they might have gone down the same road as SWR and are getting a fairly homogeneous fleet which makes long term maintenance a lot easier.

ATW have older units of many different types scattered over 10 different locations overnight of which only 3 are capable of more than overnight servicing.

 

[tiptoptaff]

Interesting that they're planning to replace all stock. Is that all Valleys or all total? The 175s are decent units and it'd be shame to see them go. Unsure where they'd end up.

 

[jw]

Say goodbye to the 158s but hello to refreshed 2-car 170s for the Heart of Wales line..

• Replace the entire fleet of class 158s with new diesel multiple units (DMUs) on the Cambrian line during 2022, providing extra seats on the busiest services.
• Introduce new two and three-car DMUs on the Milford Haven to Manchester service by 2023.
• On the Heart of Wales line, introduce refurbished Class 170 two-car units by 2022.

http://tfw.gov.wales/whats-happening-south-west-and-mid-wales

 

[Domh245]

Spotted this on the borders page:

"Create a true intercity experience on the North-South long-distance services, bringing 12 newly refurbished Mark IV carriages into use on Cardiff to Holyhead services via Shrewsbury and Chester."

 

[jw]

North Wales to get new DMUs and Mk4s

• Introduce the new fleet of diesel multiple units (DMUs) to the North Wales Coast in 2022
• Create a true intercity experience on the North-South long-distance services, bringing 12 newly refurbished Mark IV carriages to Wales.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

12 Mk4 coaches means the Mk3 LHCS is being replaced.
So that's all of 1.5 of LNER's 31 Mk4 rakes spoken for!
Presumably 3x4-car sets (2 in use and 1 spare)?

 

[tiptoptaff]

12 Mk4 coaches means the Mk3 LHCS is being replaced.
So that's all of 1.5 of LNER's 31 Mk4 rakes spoken for!
Presumably 3x4-car sets (2 in use and 1 spare)?

Mk3s going as they're owned by Arriva.