Keolis Amey Wales - Future Rolling Stock

Gareth Marston

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Are you basing that on that 6 month old presentation document that you seem to still think is new again...? Are you not getting it?! The extra 4x 769s have already been ordered and I believe they're part of the May stock introduction along with the 5x 769s ordered under ATW and the 5x ex-GWR (FGW) 153s, so I'm taking "quite old extra trains looking into being leased from February" to mean "units of rumoured class(es) introduced into temporary service three months sooner"... I still don't get why a 6 month old presentation document was linked to when it has nothing to do with the much more recent "quite old extra trains looking into being leased" said by James Price in the recent meeting.
Well what classes are they and where are they coming from? And where's your source? Civil servants look into lots of things many in fact most don't happen. just because there's been a hint that something maybe happening doesn't mean it will.
 
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anamyd

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Well what classes are they and where are they coming from? And where's your source? Civil servants look into lots of things many in fact most don't happen. just because there's been a hint that something maybe happening doesn't mean it will.
I don't know for definite and I don't have one, sorry. Still not clear on why a 6 month old presentation document was linked, surely by now neither you nor PHILIPE thinks that it's new...?
 

berneyarms

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Perhaps we can all just wait until something is actually announced rather than endless speculation?

None of us actually know anything at this stage.

We can just hope that TfW are trying to source additional short term stock over and above that outlined in the franchise document.
 

krus_aragon

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I don't know for definite and I don't have one, sorry. Still not clear on why a 6 month old presentation document was linked, surely by now neither you nor PHILIPE thinks that it's new...?
No, neither of them will think that it's new (I'm certain that Gareth won't). It is useful in making clear what rolling stock was already expected, and therefore nothing in that document can be the possible "quite old, extra" rolling stock being sought.

With regards to the extra 769s tagged on since, my understanding is that those have been definitively ordered. So they wouldn't fit the bill of the tentative availability described to the committee.

So there's something (or things) else under consideration. There are rumours of Northern Pacers on this forum, and now suggestions of 156s.

I think (hope) we're all on the same hymn sheet in that TfW are looking for extra unknown rolling stock just for next year, and that no official description of this stock has been made. (Further speculation continues, of course.)
 

Gareth Marston

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I don't know for definite and I don't have one, sorry. Still not clear on why a 6 month old presentation document was linked, surely by now neither you nor PHILIPE thinks that it's new...?
It's not new but it is the plan for the franchise ( we know the 769 introduction has slipped and another 4 units have been added). It's also all been budgeted for, whereas anything extra "looked at" will come with a price tag even a Pacer. What gets deleted to pay for it or where does the extra £ come from?
 

anamyd

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No, neither of them will think that it's new (I'm certain that Gareth won't). It is useful in making clear what rolling stock was already expected, and therefore nothing in that document can be the possible "quite old, extra" rolling stock being sought.

With regards to the extra 769s tagged on since, my understanding is that those have been definitively ordered. So they wouldn't fit the bill of the tentative availability described to the committee.

So there's something (or things) else under consideration. There are rumours of Northern Pacers on this forum, and now suggestions of 156s.

I think (hope) we're all on the same hymn sheet in that TfW are looking for extra unknown rolling stock just for next year, and that no official description of this stock has been made. (Further speculation continues, of course.)
Thank you!!! (Not necessarily siding, pardon the pun)
 

Cardiff123

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That's the longer term plan. I was thinking more about the short term. If TFW are looking for other stock then 156s would be more popular than 144s and they are PRM compliant so they could be used for longer. As it stands, the Anglia 156s have no home after they finish in Norwich.
And when are GA likely to be finished with these 156s? TfW are looking at 'short term old trains' that will be available from early next year, not from May/June or later.
 

krus_aragon

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Do we know if orders have been placed for the new rolling stock yet? Some news on TOPS numbers would be encouraging.
There were plenty of reports of the "preferred bidder" announcements back in June, but the only actual contract/order announcement I've found is in the International Railway Journal:
IRJ said:
Wales & Borders train and tram-train contract signed
Aug 13, 2018
THE KeolisAmey joint venture, which won a 15-year contract in May to operate the Wales & Borders franchise and develop the South Wales Metro, has placed an order with Stadler for 36 CityLink tram-trains and 35 Flirt multiple units, with delivery due to start in 2022.
 

Gareth Marston

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Just came across my National Express leaflet from back in 2001. £375 million was promised on new rolling stock for the Wales and Borders franchise. No detail of what classes etc.

A reminder of what should have happened.
 

Cardiff123

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Oh well judging by the stories in the Northern Pacer withdrawals thread I think TfW can forget about getting their hands on the 'quite old trains' that they're looking for from next February.
I'd say derogations are now inevitable. There's no way the rest of the 158s and all of the 150s can be modified in 2019 without the 769s arriving until May, and even then it'll only be 5 until the 4 extra they've ordered arrive.
 

anamyd

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Oh well judging by the stories in the Northern Pacer withdrawals thread I think TfW can forget about getting their hands on the 'quite old trains' that they're looking for from next February.
I'd say derogations are now inevitable. There's no way the rest of the 158s and all of the 150s can be modified in 2019 without the 769s arriving until May, and even then it'll only be 5 until the 4 extra they've ordered arrive.
Speaking in March 2019, if no "quite old extra trains" have entered temporary service with TfW Rail, either they couldn't get any or they're delayed until later this year...

Speaking in December 2018, December 2021 / January 2022 should be the realistic absolute deadline for the PRM mods. Will TfW Rail / KeolisAmey have to pay a "PRM fine" starting from the 1st of January 2020 to allow unmodified units to continue in service before they're modified...? In the TfW Rail disabled and older peoples' travel guide or whatever it's called, there is a statement of "all our trains will be PRM-TSI compliant by 2020". Surely this is a lie, because realistically that's not going to be the case...? :-/
 

Cardiff123

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Speaking in March 2019, if no "quite old extra trains" have entered temporary service with TfW Rail, either they couldn't get any or they're delayed until later this year...

Speaking in December 2018, December 2021 / January 2022 should be the realistic absolute deadline for the PRM mods. Will TfW Rail / KeolisAmey have to pay a "PRM fine" starting from the 1st of January 2020 to allow unmodified units to continue in service before they're modified...? In the TfW Rail disabled and older peoples' travel guide or whatever it's called, there is a statement of "all our trains will be PRM-TSI compliant by 2020". Surely this is a lie, because realistically that's not going to be the case...? :-/
It can still be the case, if passengers are prepared to accept widespread bustitution next year, which this autumn has shown they are not.
 

anamyd

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It can still be the case, if passengers are prepared to accept widespread bustitution next year, which this autumn has shown they are not.
If it is going to be the case, then where are all the extra PRM modification workshops that have(n't) been built to speed up the process by 1.5 to 2 years...?
 

Parallel

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They’re probably going to have to really reduce down capacity everywhere next year to get as many units as possible done.

I wonder how many of the below we will see:

1tp2h Shrewsbury to Aberystwyth 2 car (158)
1tp2h Machynlleth to Pwllheli 2 car (158)
1tph Birmingham - Shrewsbury 4 car (158/150)(detaching 2 to work to join another train back)
1tp2h Shrewsbury to Holyhead 2 car (158)
1tph Manchester to Llandudno 2/3 car (150/158/175)
BUS Llandudno to Blaenau
BUS Chester to Crewe
BUS Shrewsbury to Crewe local
1tph West Wales to Manchester 3 coaches (175)
1tph Maesteg to Cheltenham 2 car (175/Pacer?)
1tp4h HOWL 1/2 car (150/153/175?)
1tph City Line (14x/153) - Ticket acceptance on buses?
BUS - Cardiff Bay (not going to happen but probably should to free up a unit)
Valley lines - Mainly pacers and some 150s. Maybe some trains turning around at Pontypridd and Caerphilly/Ystrad Mynach instead. Buses to supplement.
BUS - Fishguard route
1tp2h Carmarthen to Pembroke 2 cars (150/14x/153)

Buses to supplement reduced frequency/capacity.

Please note that I’m not saying any above is a good idea, just predictions for what might happen!
 

anamyd

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Would the Works/Depot capacity be available to do a large number at one time ?
That's what I want to know as well. Surely there must be some fine that will have to be paid if units continue to operate without modifications in 2020 and 2021 until they're modified...?
 

Gareth Marston

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Good news for public transport per se in Wales in the near future?

Lee Waters AM for Llanelli and most high profile M4 Relief Road opponent appointed as Junior Transport Minister in Mark Drakefords first cabinet.
 

Cardiff123

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Good news for public transport per se in Wales in the near future?

Lee Waters AM for Llanelli and most high profile M4 Relief Road opponent appointed as Junior Transport Minister in Mark Drakefords first cabinet.
It's certainly a very interesting appointment and I don't think Lee Waters would have accepted the job if he knew he'd have to resign within a few weeks against the relief road 'black route'.
Let's hope this does signal a real shift in direction for public and sustainable transport and rail spending in Wales. It's desperately needed after 10 years of stagnation under Carwyn Jones.
 

Meerkat

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However nice it would be to take the strain with trains it just isn’t possible and IMO the M4 Newport Bypass should have been built years ago. Just get on with it!
 

Gareth Marston

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Deleted -the M4 Relief Road Black Route?:p

The signs are there-

  • Carwyn Jones was bullish in public about "approving" the Black Route before he stepped down and then went very quite in the last couple of weeks and didn't happen.
  • The Inspectors Report hasn't been published despite being completed months ago- the noise from Welsh Government is "its taking time to analysis and is very complex" - this is is civil service speak for "there's a problem" and given it was commissioned to give the green light to the Black Route the problem can only be it hasn't.
  • The promised vote for AM's hasn't happened.
  • Its most outspoken critic in the Assembly has been made a Junior Transport Minister.
  • The new First Minister refused to given any commitment to it in his campaign to become Welsh Labour Leader.
 

krus_aragon

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Whatever option is selected for the M4 bypass, I think we can be certain that none of Keolis-Amey's new rolling stock will operate on it (see thread title).
 

Gareth Marston

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Whatever option is selected for the M4 bypass, I think we can be certain that none of Keolis-Amey's new rolling stock will operate on it (see thread title).
No - but if the black route is rejected the focus of Welsh Governments Transport policy and implementation moves away from "big road schemes" to other things which is maybe good news for future South Wales Metro extensions, electrification, Swansea Bay Metro, North Wales Metro etc and therefore railway rolling stock.
 

Broseley man

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The tolls on the bridges are about to be removed, signage is being put in place. The prediction is six million extra trips.

The electrification out of Wales is unfinished and doesn't anyway improve Cardiff to Bristol.

There is no stock yet to improve Cardiff to Bristol.

A decision needs to be made on the Newport Southern bypass which alleviates the two lane section bottleneck at Brynglas tunnels on the M4 north of Newport. We know this well!!

Mark Drakeford takes over as new First Minister from Carwyn Jones. Mark studiously DID NOT commit to supporting the new bypass. He has appointed Lee Waters as Junior Transport Minister, an adamant opponent of the new bypass, and that suggests that the new bypass will be abandoned otherwise Lee would be resigning straightaway.

So. Who knows where the joined up thinking is?

Imagine if new capacity electric trains were introduced on the Cardiff/Bristol axis before the tolls were lifted.

The effect of all the new traffic at Brynglas and where the M48 and M4 converge on both sides of the Severn will be interesting. The bit from Almondsbury round Bristol to Bath is already hard to drive. I hate it.

Nevertheless Michael Gove is just the best Environment Secretary and wouldn't be letting this happen if it weren't to be improving air quality around Cardiff and Bristol and Bath. Oh! Bath has just discovered its air quality is a problem and has a complex scheme to keep traffic away from the centre. This will help! NOT.

I suppose the four tracking on Filton Bank does give some hope for better rail services. To me there should be a high speed, frequent link Cardiff, Newport, Bristol, Bath.

Port Talbot also has MAJOR air quality problems. Encouraging more M4 traffic along the M4 which goes almost through the centre won't help.


RANT OVER.

Urgh.
 

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