The Welsh could just buy new bi-modes - the 197s can replace 158s elsewhere.
Bi-mode shouldn‘t be judged just on mileage but also where those miles are. They would be on electric through the cities and suburbs - where the pollution is more dangerous (and higher from accelerations) and the extra performance will have the most effect. Pretty sure the West Midlands would prefer electric performance between the airport and Wolverhampton, and certainly not want the diesels in New Street!
Would be in CAF/ROSCO interest to do a deal to swap TfW diesels for bi-modes and lease the 197s out to replace 158s elsewhere.
Class 197s are not a suitable replacement for 158s. Class 158s are a regional express type ideal for long-distance fast/semi-fast services like Aberystwyth-Birmingham or Cardiff-Portsmouth. The class 197s are inferior to 158s on work like that. This isn't just about door configuration,
the class 197 does not meet Rail Delivery Group best-practice standards for long-distance services. According to the best practice, there are
not enough toilets on a class 197 for long-distance work. The seat:toilet ratio on a 2-car 197 barely meets the best-practice for short-distance/commuter services. Seating capacity on a 197 is similar to a 175, with fewer table bays and reduced seat-pitch. Fewer table bays and fewer seats compared to a 158 too. The only good things I can say about the 197s are that they have unit-end gangways (unlike a 175) a slightly better seat-pitch than a 158.
Playing devils advocate, if they said today go ahead with any electrification project, how many years would it be until it opened?
GWEP was supposed to take about 6 years to wire up Paddington to Bristol, Oxford and Newbury so I would expect the smaller job of Crewe to Holyhead could be done in about five years.
Pity caf didn't offer tfw a bi mode version of their civity series
They do offer a bi-mode Civity on their website but it's unclear whether they offer it within UK loading gauge.
If there was a realistic chance of much electrification taking place, and if when these trains were ordered there was the money to spend on future proofing the fleet, then yes there may well have been a better case for bi modes.
But we're living with a government that cancelled plans to electrify the Windermere branch, a much more obvious candidate then anything in Wales.
A different government would be responsible if Network Rail spending was devolved. Also, I think Windermere was cancelled before
removal of diesel-only trains by 2040 was annouced (that's already almost 10 years prior to the expected life expiry of class 195s, unless Northern specified cheap and flimsy trains that are expected to fall apart by 2041). There is also a Rail Industry Decarbonisation Taskforce now, which is recomending a substantial amount of additional electrification which could lead the government to a change of heart.
The W&B franchise needed new stock several years ago, so there was no time to wait and see if there was a case for ordering bimodes in the future.
It didn't need 77 new-build diesel trains. It needed new stock for the Cardiff metro network (which the new TOC is delivering in a form which appears to be electrification-compatible) and 20-30 additional regional express trains to suplement the class 158s and 175s. In hindsight that could come from EMR who are expected to release 158s but at the time that may not have been known so a new build of 20-30 DMUs would have been reasonable and would be cascadable (to replace older DMUs in unwired areas) in the event of electrification on part of the network.
I don't think modern diesel trains are really a problem. For example, the Northern 195s are very modern with brand new diesel engines which are extremely low emission. I, for one, can't really tell the difference between a 195 and a 331 when on board.
It depends what emissions you are talking about. The fuel consumption of Northern's class 195s is not much different to their class 158s, so CO2 emissions will be similar. Of course, pepole inhaling CO2 is far less of a problem than people inhaling some of the stuff that comes out of a 158 but CO2 is still harmful to the environment.
Anyway you look at it, a diesel train is more efficient and comfortable than a car...
More efficient than a petrol or diesel car yes, but sales of new petrol and diesel cars are expected to be banned at some point in the 2030s. The percentage of ultra low emission vehicles in the private car fleet will then increase rapidly and trains may no longer be seen as an environmentally friendly mode, except on electrified routes of course. As for comfort, have you not seen all the 'ironing board' complaints? Car makers don't fit ironing board seats in their vehicles; the UK passenger rail industry currently does.