Keolis Amey Wales - Future Rolling Stock

[craigybagel]

I thought that the TfW FLIRTS were going to come with Pantographs so they could use overhead wires going north of Queen Street up the Rhymney Line? Aren’t they also going to be used on the Cheltenham to south Wales stoppers as well - meaning they could use the overhead wires between STJ and Cardiff?

Two separate fleets. Some will be trimode (electric, battery and diesel) for working Rhymney/Coryton - Barry/VOG, and some will be diesel only for the routes currently worked by 170s (Cardiff - Cheltenham/Ebbw Vale/Maesteg).

 

[TheWalrus]

At peak times, it is one GWR IET every half hour in and out of Swansea. In addition, had Cardiff to Swansea been electrified, then the TfW stoppers would also surely have been electric? Ideally, these stoppers might have gone all the way from Swansea to Bristol TM / Bath using electricity. It might even have swung things in favour of having the Manchester to west Wales trains as bi-mode being they would be under the wires between Manchester & Crewe and Newport & Swansea.

So at best it’s 3tph. Most of the day is 1tph. Swanline is 1tp2h. Manchester-Carmarthen/Milford Haven is doing to be DMUs unfortunately so no luck there. Overall, it’s probably not worth electrifying at this current time. I would certainly prioritise Chiltern and Snow hill lines first.

 

[anthony263]

WG did say they would use emus on Swanline services and look at running them hourly to Bristol tm as part of the business care for electrification to Swansea

 

[Meerkat]

I've been saying for ages that if the Welsh Government has specified bi-modes for those services the case for Cardiff-Swansea electrification would have been much better. It's too late now, unfortunately.

if they electrified to Barry/Penarth then the Rhymney bi-mode Flirts could take over the diesel Flirt routes, making Swansea electrification more viable.
The Valley lines would all be Citylinks then.

 

[Envoy]

if they electrified to Barry/Penarth then the Rhymney bi-mode Flirts could take over the diesel Flirt routes, making Swansea electrification more viable.
The Valley lines would all be Citylinks then.

Would Network Rail let the Citylinks onto the Barry line being as it it used for diversions when the main line is shut?

 

[Envoy]

Two separate fleets. Some will be trimode (electric, battery and diesel) for working Rhymney/Coryton - Barry/VOG, and some will be diesel only for the routes currently worked by 170s (Cardiff - Cheltenham/Ebbw Vale/Maesteg).

Many thanks for clarifying that. I just don’t get why FLIRTS capable of using the overhead wires on the Rhymney line and diesel on the Vale of Glamorgan Coast Line are ordered yet a diesel only version is ordered for operation under the wires that already exist between Cardiff & STJ ? This seems to be short sighted? I also wonder if the government will change its mind and electrify Cardiff to Swansea meaning that Wales will be stuck with new trains that can only operate on diesel - be it the FLIRTS for the Cheltenham - Maesteg run / or stoppers between Cardiff & Swansea as well as the long distance CAF trains. Look at how air pollution has dropped with the lockdown and so many cars not being used. Removing diesel powered trains where possible and thus preventing passengers & staff breathing in those fumes must be desirable.

 

[Meerkat]

Would Network Rail let the Citylinks onto the Barry line being as it it used for diversions when the main line is shut?

Well freight will be allowed up the valleys, and the City line Citylinks will be crossing the “heavy rail” in the Canton area.

 

[craigybagel]

Many thanks for clarifying that. I just don’t get why FLIRTS capable of using the overhead wires on the Rhymney line and diesel on the Vale of Glamorgan Coast Line are ordered yet a diesel only version is ordered for operation under the wires that already exist between Cardiff & STJ ? This seems to be short sighted? I also wonder if the government will change its mind and electrify Cardiff to Swansea meaning that Wales will be stuck with new trains that can only operate on diesel - be it the FLIRTS for the Cheltenham - Maesteg run / or stoppers between Cardiff & Swansea as well as the long distance CAF trains. Look at how air pollution has dropped with the lockdown and so many cars not being used. Removing diesel powered trains where possible and thus preventing passengers & staff breathing in those fumes must be desirable.

CDF-STJ is really not a great distance and these units won't be spending very long under the wires - especially when these units will also work to Ebbw Vale and Maesteg on services that will spend less and no time at all under the wires respectively. Given its likely the traction system will be similar if not identical to the bi modes, I'd be very surprised if electrical equipment couldn't be retrofitted at a later date, there's just very little need for them now.

Well freight will be allowed up the valleys, and the City line Citylinks will be crossing the “heavy rail” in the Canton area.

And the existing Sheffield citylinks interact perfectly happily with other trains. That's the whole point of them.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Not quite because the 756s will be Tri-mode trains whereas the 231s will be diesel-electric trains. The only difference is the batteries that will be fitted to the 756s

There are a few more differences than a 756 just being a 231 plus pantograph and batteries. The interiors are also expected to be different (159 seats on a tri-mode vs 171 on a class 231 for example). Also, both the centre coaches of one type will have just one central door (like the Anglia FLIRTS). The other type will have one centre carriage like that and the other with two sets of doors on each side (like the driving vehicles of the TfW FLIRTS).

Voyagers are a bit different as each vehicle is primarily independent, the engine on that vehicle feeds it's own traction equipment whereas the FLIRTs will have the traction equipment at either end fed from the central engine pod. I would expect (hope!) that the construction should make retrofitting Pantographs and transformers relatively easy, but we won't know until they arrive I suppose! It is quite shameful that amid all the talk about needing to decarbonise they aren't coming with pantographs, especially as they have electric transmissions. Less inexcusable than the mechanical transmissions on the CAFs though...

Mechanical transmissions on the CAF stock presumably means that even if the transmissions were replaced they would have the same problem as Voyagers of needing to add a high-voltage feed between vehicles? Future-proof the CAF stock aint.

Personally I think all new stock should be electric, bi-mode or tri-mode, no more new diesel-only stock.

I agree completely. The 195s, 196s and 197s should never have been allowed. You could perhaps have made an argument in favour of 70-90 DMUs of a similar spec to the 197s to be spread between Northern, WMT, TfW and GWR as class 150 replacements on the basis that even in 30 years you are not going to be able to do enough electrification to completely eliminate all DMUs. But Northern and TfW both having large new fleets of diesel-only stock is madness.

Anything 3/4 tph and above I would consider electrifying.

My benchmark for passenger rail services is 5 coaches per direction per hour, but obviously I agree that you should start with the busiest (and higher speed) routes first.

But with a lot of the TfW stock, you're going to end up wasting extra fuel carrying the extra weight of all the electrical equipment around when it would be rarely if ever used. That's not going to be great for the environment either.

With current wires the class 197 fleet is planned to operate the following sections under wires as a minimum:

• Manchester Airport - Warrington Bank Quay
• Manchester Piccadily - Crewe
• Wolverhampton - Birmingham International
• Cardiff - Newport

Perhaps not enough to offset the extra weight, but how much extra weight are we talking about? At the very least go for a diesel-electric multiple unit with space for a pantograph etc. to be added later. That way you aren't carrying around much (if any) extra weight compared to a DMU and can make use of OHLE in future.

With 3tph (at least 8 vehicles per hour, probably more) now I think there would be a reasonable case for Shrewsbury - Wolverhampton electrification, which would I think very much tip the balance in favour of bi-modes for the Cambrian and Birmingham-Wrexham-Chester. With bi-modes on Swansea-Manchester and the promised (I think) hourly Swanline service you would have 17 vehicles (assuming 3-car on Swanline and 9-car on GWR) per hour that could be electric between Bridgend and Swansea, more east of Bridgend if the Maesteg service can be electric.

Don't forget also that the Welsh Government are now interested in rail devolution and have said that they want this so they get a share of the Network Rail budget which they want to put towards wires along the north Wales coast and Cardiff-Swansea. If they are serious about that, they may find that they have shot themselves in the foot by allowing Wales to be swamped by so many class 197s. There's nowhere sensible to cascade that many DMUs to.

Many thanks for clarifying that. I just don’t get why FLIRTS capable of using the overhead wires on the Rhymney line and diesel on the Vale of Glamorgan Coast Line are ordered yet a diesel only version is ordered for operation under the wires that already exist between Cardiff & STJ ? This seems to be short sighted? I also wonder if the government will change its mind and electrify Cardiff to Swansea meaning that Wales will be stuck with new trains that can only operate on diesel - be it the FLIRTS for the Cheltenham - Maesteg run / or stoppers between Cardiff & Swansea as well as the long distance CAF trains. Look at how air pollution has dropped with the lockdown and so many cars not being used. Removing diesel powered trains where possible and thus preventing passengers & staff breathing in those fumes must be desirable.

The 231s will hopefully be fairly easy to convert to bi-mode if the money is there. The 197s on the other hand will be used as an excuse not to electrify unless the Welsh Government wake up sharpish and realise the massive mistake they have made and cut the size of the order. Allowing the 158s and 175s to stay for a few more years will give time to formulate an electrification plan and procure bi-modes accordingly.

 

[Meerkat]

The Welsh could just buy new bi-modes - the 197s can replace 158s elsewhere.
Bi-mode shouldn‘t be judged just on mileage but also where those miles are. They would be on electric through the cities and suburbs - where the pollution is more dangerous (and higher from accelerations) and the extra performance will have the most effect. Pretty sure the West Midlands would prefer electric performance between the airport and Wolverhampton, and certainly not want the diesels in New Street!

 

[Envoy]

Rhydgaled has made some very valid points above. If the Welsh Government would like to get control of more of the rail infrastructure and electrify the North Wales Coast Line and Cardiff to Swansea, how could they justify that when they have ordered a new fleet of diesel only class 197’s? Absolutely bonkers!

Meercat (above) also makes the valid point that it is not good to have diesel trains going in to heavily polluted Birmingham New Street. As Rhydgaled says, if the line from Wolverhampton to Shrewsbury were electrified, that would surely tip the balance into having bi-modes for the Cambrian & the services to north Wales via Wrexham.

 

[Bob Price]

Playing devils advocate, if they said today go ahead with any electrification project, how many years would it be until it opened? Agree bimodes are good but there is a limit to carrying equipment around which isn't used unless a big chunk of the route is wired.

 

[anthony263]

Pity caf didn't offer tfw a bi mode version of their civity series perhaps with a limited number of 2 carriage dmus. Although I would have just retained the 175s as Chester seem to look after them well enough

 

[Meerkat]

Would be in CAF/ROSCO interest to do a deal to swap TfW diesels for bi-modes and lease the 197s out to replace 158s elsewhere.

 

[craigybagel]

If there was a realistic chance of much electrification taking place, and if when these trains were ordered there was the money to spend on future proofing the fleet, then yes there may well have been a better case for bi modes.

But we're living with a government that cancelled plans to electrify the Windermere branch, a much more obvious candidate then anything in Wales. If they can't justify that, or Cardiff-Swansea (which would seem the most obvious candidate in Wales) then there really isn't any hope for any of the other routes. Even if bi modes were ordered, the current government isn't prepared to pay for these kind of things. That's the reality of it.

As for the suggestion that the Welsh Government would sort it out if they were given their own budget, the same problem still exists. They can make claims over what they'll do with hypothetical money, but we already have one of the most heavily subsidised networks in the country. How they think they can pay for such things in the real world is anyone's guess.

The W&B franchise needed new stock several years ago, so there was no time to wait and see if there was a case for ordering bimodes in the future. The network as it is now is (in my opinion anyway, and clearly also in the opinion of the folks who make these decisions) not electrified enough to justify the expense of bimodes, so DMUs were the sensible decision. The part of the network that is most likely to see more electrification, the area around Cardiff, is getting DEMUs which as I said above are likely to be easily converted to BiMode if the need arises. But as for the rest of the network - I'm not due to retire until the 2050s and I'd be very surprised if my route card at the North end of the network has any greater amount of electrified track then as it does now.

 

[toby_farman]

If there was a realistic chance of much electrification taking place, and if when these trains were ordered there was the money to spend on future proofing the fleet, then yes there may well have been a better case for bi modes.

But we're living with a government that cancelled plans to electrify the Windermere branch, a much more obvious candidate then anything in Wales. If they can't justify that, or Cardiff-Swansea (which would seem the most obvious candidate in Wales) then there really isn't any hope for any of the other routes. Even if bi modes were ordered, the current government isn't prepared to pay for these kind of things. That's the reality of it.

As for the suggestion that the Welsh Government would sort it out if they were given their own budget, the same problem still exists. They can make claims over what they'll do with hypothetical money, but we already have one of the most heavily subsidised networks in the country. How they think they can pay for such things in the real world is anyone's guess.

The W&B franchise needed new stock several years ago, so there was no time to wait and see if there was a case for ordering bimodes in the future. The network as it is now is (in my opinion anyway, and clearly also in the opinion of the folks who make these decisions) not electrified enough to justify the expense of bimodes, so DMUs were the sensible decision. The part of the network that is most likely to see more electrification, the area around Cardiff, is getting DEMUs which as I said above are likely to be easily converted to BiMode if the need arises. But as for the rest of the network - I'm not due to retire until the 2050s and I'd be very surprised if my route card at the North end of the network has any greater amount of electrified track then as it does now.

I don't think modern diesel trains are really a problem. For example, the Northern 195s are very modern with brand new diesel engines which are extremely low emission. I, for one, can't really tell the difference between a 195 and a 331 when on board. Anyway you look at it, a diesel train is more efficient and comfortable than a car... The 195s don't operate under enough electric track to justify carrying a pantograph and maintaining it, if it's never used.

 

[Meerkat]

If there was a realistic chance of much electrification taking place, and if when these trains were ordered there was the money to spend on future proofing the fleet, then yes there may well have been a better case for bi modes.

But we're living with a government that cancelled plans to electrify the Windermere branch, a much more obvious candidate then anything in Wales. If they can't justify that, or Cardiff-Swansea (which would seem the most obvious candidate in Wales) then there really isn't any hope for any of the other routes. Even if bi modes were ordered, the current government isn't prepared to pay for these kind of things. That's the reality of it.

As for the suggestion that the Welsh Government would sort it out if they were given their own budget, the same problem still exists. They can make claims over what they'll do with hypothetical money, but we already have one of the most heavily subsidised networks in the country. How they think they can pay for such things in the real world is anyone's guess.

The W&B franchise needed new stock several years ago, so there was no time to wait and see if there was a case for ordering bimodes in the future. The network as it is now is (in my opinion anyway, and clearly also in the opinion of the folks who make these decisions) not electrified enough to justify the expense of bimodes, so DMUs were the sensible decision. The part of the network that is most likely to see more electrification, the area around Cardiff, is getting DEMUs which as I said above are likely to be easily converted to BiMode if the need arises. But as for the rest of the network - I'm not due to retire until the 2050s and I'd be very surprised if my route card at the North end of the network has any greater amount of electrified track then as it does now.

They didn’t have to choose the most difficult DMU set up to change to electric possible though did they?

 

[Nick Ashwell]

I don't think modern diesel trains are really a problem. For example, the Northern 195s are very modern with brand new diesel engines which are extremely low emission. I, for one, can't really tell the difference between a 195 and a 331 when on board. Anyway you look at it, a diesel train is more efficient and comfortable than a car... The 195s don't operate under enough electric track to justify carrying a pantograph and maintaining it, if it's never used.

Yet a diesel train isn't always as efficient as a car. You can't call a diesel train more efficient than an electric car...

 

[supervc-10]

The advantage the newer diesels have is the massive reduction in particulates and NOx emissions compared to older ones, due to the exhaust treatments. This is why new diesel locomotives are difficult in the UK- those emissions treatments take up a lot of space.

If there's enough electrification to make bi-modes worthwile on the routes the 197s are being bought for, then the 197s will be cascaded elsewhere. There are plenty of areas across the UK where they would be greatly appreciated - there are a lot of 150s, 156s, 158s etc out there which could do with replacement! The Welsh Government owning the vehicles is not a significant hindrance to this. They could either sell the vehicles to a ROSCO or they could lease the vehicles out themselves.

The diesel-only FLIRTS are a great idea IMO. People keep saying how modular the Stadler equipment is- it would really surprise me if they're anything but a bi-mode train where the pantograph and transformers are simply left out. Same with the 769s, which are having their pantographs removed. The diesel system on them provides bus power to the 700V DC system (IIRC), just the same as the 25kV system does. I believe that the FLIRTS use a similar idea.

 

[Domh245]

They're definitely an improvement over existing diesel stock, but that doesn't mean that they couldn't be better -

They didn’t have to choose the most difficult DMU set up to change to electric possible though did they?

I suspect that going for DEMU or bi-mode would have been too expensive - particularly as it would incur additional costs for design and development of it. The 197s will be particularly cheap (relatively!) as they're pretty much just clones of 196s, themselves not much more than a redeveloped 195.

 

[Rhydgaled]

The Welsh could just buy new bi-modes - the 197s can replace 158s elsewhere.
Bi-mode shouldn‘t be judged just on mileage but also where those miles are. They would be on electric through the cities and suburbs - where the pollution is more dangerous (and higher from accelerations) and the extra performance will have the most effect. Pretty sure the West Midlands would prefer electric performance between the airport and Wolverhampton, and certainly not want the diesels in New Street!

Would be in CAF/ROSCO interest to do a deal to swap TfW diesels for bi-modes and lease the 197s out to replace 158s elsewhere.

Class 197s are not a suitable replacement for 158s. Class 158s are a regional express type ideal for long-distance fast/semi-fast services like Aberystwyth-Birmingham or Cardiff-Portsmouth. The class 197s are inferior to 158s on work like that. This isn't just about door configuration, the class 197 does not meet Rail Delivery Group best-practice standards for long-distance services. According to the best practice, there are not enough toilets on a class 197 for long-distance work. The seat:toilet ratio on a 2-car 197 barely meets the best-practice for short-distance/commuter services. Seating capacity on a 197 is similar to a 175, with fewer table bays and reduced seat-pitch. Fewer table bays and fewer seats compared to a 158 too. The only good things I can say about the 197s are that they have unit-end gangways (unlike a 175) a slightly better seat-pitch than a 158.

Playing devils advocate, if they said today go ahead with any electrification project, how many years would it be until it opened?

GWEP was supposed to take about 6 years to wire up Paddington to Bristol, Oxford and Newbury so I would expect the smaller job of Crewe to Holyhead could be done in about five years.

Pity caf didn't offer tfw a bi mode version of their civity series

They do offer a bi-mode Civity on their website but it's unclear whether they offer it within UK loading gauge.

If there was a realistic chance of much electrification taking place, and if when these trains were ordered there was the money to spend on future proofing the fleet, then yes there may well have been a better case for bi modes.

But we're living with a government that cancelled plans to electrify the Windermere branch, a much more obvious candidate then anything in Wales.

A different government would be responsible if Network Rail spending was devolved. Also, I think Windermere was cancelled before removal of diesel-only trains by 2040 was annouced (that's already almost 10 years prior to the expected life expiry of class 195s, unless Northern specified cheap and flimsy trains that are expected to fall apart by 2041). There is also a Rail Industry Decarbonisation Taskforce now, which is recomending a substantial amount of additional electrification which could lead the government to a change of heart.

The W&B franchise needed new stock several years ago, so there was no time to wait and see if there was a case for ordering bimodes in the future.

It didn't need 77 new-build diesel trains. It needed new stock for the Cardiff metro network (which the new TOC is delivering in a form which appears to be electrification-compatible) and 20-30 additional regional express trains to suplement the class 158s and 175s. In hindsight that could come from EMR who are expected to release 158s but at the time that may not have been known so a new build of 20-30 DMUs would have been reasonable and would be cascadable (to replace older DMUs in unwired areas) in the event of electrification on part of the network.

I don't think modern diesel trains are really a problem. For example, the Northern 195s are very modern with brand new diesel engines which are extremely low emission. I, for one, can't really tell the difference between a 195 and a 331 when on board.

It depends what emissions you are talking about. The fuel consumption of Northern's class 195s is not much different to their class 158s, so CO2 emissions will be similar. Of course, pepole inhaling CO2 is far less of a problem than people inhaling some of the stuff that comes out of a 158 but CO2 is still harmful to the environment.

Anyway you look at it, a diesel train is more efficient and comfortable than a car...

More efficient than a petrol or diesel car yes, but sales of new petrol and diesel cars are expected to be banned at some point in the 2030s. The percentage of ultra low emission vehicles in the private car fleet will then increase rapidly and trains may no longer be seen as an environmentally friendly mode, except on electrified routes of course. As for comfort, have you not seen all the 'ironing board' complaints? Car makers don't fit ironing board seats in their vehicles; the UK passenger rail industry currently does.

 

[Rhydgaled]

The Welsh Government owning the vehicles is not a significant hindrance to this. They could either sell the vehicles to a ROSCO or they could lease the vehicles out themselves.

I'm not sure the Welsh Government will own the new fleet; I did read somewhere that they were planning to own them but received a lease offer they couldn't refuse. All I could get from TfW was that the class 197 fleet is "privately financed".

 

[TheWalrus]

Playing devils advocate, if they said today go ahead with any electrification project, how many years would it be until it opened? Agree bimodes are good but there is a limit to carrying equipment around which isn't used unless a big chunk of the route is wired.

What sort of ratio of electrification to non-electrified line or minimum mileage are we looking at to make bi-modes worth using?

 

[Meerkat]

Class 197s are not a suitable replacement for 158s.

It’s what TfW are using them for so it’s a bit odd that you don’t think anyone else could use them to replace 158s!

 

[craigybagel]

They didn’t have to choose the most difficult DMU set up to change to electric possible though did they?

They did if it was the only way to get the required number of units within a set budget. Given the 197s are likely to be similar in design to the 195s and 196s already being produced, it's also likely that they would be cheaper then a bespoke DEMU design.

Again I feel the need to make the point that I feel I have to make on every thread about the future of the W&B franchise: it's an extremely heavily subsidised franchise. Where do people propose finding the money to pay for extra frivolities like future proofing for an electrification that will almost certainly never happen.

 

[craigybagel]

GWEP was supposed to take about 6 years to wire up Paddington to Bristol, Oxford and Newbury so I would expect the smaller job of Crewe to Holyhead could be done in about five years.

Although it's worth pointing out that the North Wales coast would be a very challenging line to electrify, arguably more so then the GWML. Lots of exposed coastal running, tunnels, Brittania Bridge, and the issue of the Crewe to Chester line (IIRC it has so many low bridges that would require rebuilding it was suggested it would be cheaper and easier to build an entirely new alignment instead). You'd also need to resignal the remaining mechanical signalling areas as well (so everything West of Colwyn Bay).

A different government would be responsible if Network Rail spending was devolved.

Different government, same lack of funds. Although to be fair, the Welsh Government have proven themselves very good at throwing money at projects with limited business cases (see Cardiff Airport as a prime example) so I'll concede they are at least more likely to do all of this then Westminster.

It didn't need 77 new-build diesel trains. It needed new stock for the Cardiff metro network (which the new TOC is delivering in a form which appears to be electrification-compatible) and 20-30 additional regional express trains to suplement the class 158s and 175s. In hindsight that could come from EMR who are expected to release 158s but at the time that may not have been known so a new build of 20-30 DMUs would have been reasonable and would be cascadable (to replace older DMUs in unwired areas) in the event of electrification on part of the network.

The dramatic timetable recast is based around a uniform fleet, with services dividing to cater to more markets. You won't be able to do that if you end up with 3 incompatible fleets for long distance services. The fact that 158s and 175s are incompatible causes enough headaches as it is. You'd also lose the benefits of reduced training and maintenance costs through a uniform fleet, the time savings offered through shorter dwell times with doors at ⅓ and ⅔, and presumably a discount from CAF for buying in bulk. You'd also still have the issue of running diesel trains under the wires.

 

[Rhydgaled]

It’s what TfW are using them for so it’s a bit odd that you don’t think anyone else could use them to replace 158s!

I don't think TfW should be using them to replace 158s either. I think TfW have got it very wrong.

They did if it was the only way to get the required number of units within a set budget. Given the 197s are likely to be similar in design to the 195s and 196s already being produced, it's also likely that they would be cheaper then a bespoke DEMU design.

But 77 new units wasn't required. Going into speculation mode, presumably the ITT had a 'quality' weighting whih favoured more new stock, so KeolisAmey went for the cheapest way of doing that which is a large fleet of unsuitable basic DMUs.

future proofing for an electrification that will almost certainly never happen.

The future is coming in the form of an Ultra Low Emission bus, taxi and private car fleet (the latter by around 2050, the previous two potentially by around 2030 in Wales). If rail electrification does not happen questions will be asked and targets (eg. remove diesel-only trains by 2040) will be missed.

Although it's worth pointing out that the North Wales coast would be a very challenging line to electrify, arguably more so then the GWML. Lots of exposed coastal running, tunnels, Brittania Bridge, and the issue of the Crewe to Chester line (IIRC it has so many low bridges that would require rebuilding it was suggested it would be cheaper and easier to build an entirely new alignment instead). You'd also need to resignal the remaining mechanical signalling areas as well (so everything West of Colwyn Bay).

Fair point about the bridges but presumably mechanical signalling is not impacted by electrical interference so could in theroy remain in place on an electrified railway (I know this would be highly unlikely).

Different government, same lack of funds.

Different government, potentially a different lack of fund as well. The Welsh Government argue that the share of Network Rail investment that is spent in Wales is less than Wales' share of the UK population. Thus if devolution requires a funding allocation which is in line with the share of the population the Welsh Government will have more to spend on Network Rail than is currently spent in Wales. This makes electrification significantly more likely to happen if devolution happens, and Scotland are doing electrification which shows that a devolved government does not necessary follow the Westminster example of being reluctant to invest in certain areas.

The dramatic timetable recast is based around a uniform fleet, with services dividing to cater to more markets. You won't be able to do that if you end up with 3 incompatible fleets for long distance services. The fact that 158s and 175s are incompatible causes enough headaches as it is.

It would be a headache yes but there are ways to make it work, especially if you can obtain an additional 20 or so 158s from EMR. Off the top of my head the only additional markets I can think of which TfW plan to enable through portion working are Liverpool to Cardiff and north Wales. The only other new portion-working proposed as far as I recall is the Manchester-Milford trains reducing from 5 coaches to 2 or maybe 3 west of Swansea.

You'd also lose the benefits of reduced training and maintenance costs through a uniform fleet

That's a fair point, but doesn't in my view outweigh the reduction in passenger comfort and the long-term diesel impact that the planned large uniform fleet of 197s would bring.

You'd also still have the issue of running diesel trains under the wires.

I would, but they would be 20-30 year old diesel trains rather than brand new ones which would help the case for electrification and leave open the possibility of getting something capable of making use of the wires this side of 2040. They would also be relatively comfortable class 158 and class 175 DMUs giving some potential for modal shift to slightly offset the diesel emissions; I can't see many giving up cars to ride on the Sophia-seated, toilet-limited, class 197s.

 

[Meerkat]

Different government, potentially a different lack of fund as well. The Welsh Government argue that the share of Network Rail investment that is spent in Wales is less than Wales' share of the UK population.

i really hope they don’t get away with that nonsense!

 

[Energy]

I would imagine that the 197s were specced to be pretty cheap, bimodes would cost more and may go outside the budget they can reasonably have for trains.

 

[tomuk]

If the WG were worried about budget why faff about with buying Stadler Tram Trains and TriModes and taking over the Valleys from NR. The cheapest solution would be to electrify the Valleys as originally planned and use leased straight EMUs.