Assuming the Lancashire electrification happens and it is for the lines between Manchester Piccadilly and Blackpool North (via Bolton and Preston), from Manchester Piccadilly to LIverpool Lime Street (via Eccles) and from Liverpool to Wigan (via St Helens). As far as we know there are no plans to extend wires to Windermere, Barrow or Southport via Wigan Wallgate. *so*, assuming all services remain the same (they wont, of course, but assuming for now...) with the exception of Manchester Airport - Barrow (which becomes a Northern run Lancaster - Barrow service integrated with the existing Carlisle - Barrow - Lancaster service) and the Windermere line (which becomes a self contained shuttle run by Northern)... ...the DMUs saved are as follows: NORTHERN Liverpool to Blackpool - hourly service - Three hour round trip = three units Liverpool to Wigan - half hourly service - Two hour round trip = four units Manchester Victoria - Blackpool - hourly service four hour round trip - four units Hazel Grove - Preston - hourly service - three hour round trip = three units Liverpool to Manchester Airport - hourly service - Three hour round trip = three units Liverpool to Manchester Victoria - hourly service - Two hour round trip = two units Liverpool to Warrington Bank Quay - hourly service - Two hour round trip = two units TRANSPENNINE Fifteen units (Manchester Airport to Blackpool/ Barrow/ Windermere/ Glasgow/ Edinburgh, interworked) ...BUT, Lancaster to Barrow two-hourly service - two hour round trip = one unit Windermere branch - hourly service - one hour round trip = one unit So, by my reckoning thats seventeen Northern DMUs saved, but two more needed (to cover Barrow/ Windermere), so fifteen net units. Plus fifteen TPE units. So thirty DMUs spare. Yes, there are some currently doubled up, but thats a lot harder to quantify. Yes, there is some interworking (And my rough and ready figures dont take that into account). But, thats how I count it (feel free to do your own figures). TPE lose fifteen units, which would mean six 185s go to strengthen the core Newcastle service plus nine 170s go spare. The logical place for the 170s would be Scotrail (who could release a number of 158s) or NXEA (who already run 170s and have nine 156s that could be shared between Northern/ EMT). I dont see the point in giving the 170s to another TOC as a micro fleet is hard to maintain, and itd mean doubling up of services if they went to Cross Country or London Midland. Northern gain fifteen units, which would mean a few Pacers are freed up. I dont think we have the luxury of being able to withdraw any just yet, so these would mainly be lumped on to existing services for capacity (ideally coupling Sprinters together to maintain a corridor connection, with Pacers replacing 153s and 153s being tagged on to 155/156s etc). Maybe donate a couple of units (each) to EMT/ ATW/ FGW who could each do with some additional DMUs. Given that there are 86 319s, and only around thirty needed to convert the Lancashire lines, could other 319s be used to replace the 321s and 323s with Northern? The 321s are four coaches and could add capacity to NXEA, whilst the 323s could go to London Midland for beefing up capacity. However, the 323s are only three coaches - could the platforms on the Glossop/ Stoke/ Crewe lines cope with four coach trains? (I appreciate that some 319s may be needed later on if the Thames Valley branches are wired up, but once the new Thameslink EMUs arrive they are going to be needed somewhere, and it makes sense to me to share the 321/323s elsewhere and Northern to take a load more 319s) What do you reckon? And, yes, a lot of the figures come from Wikepedia, before anyone spots massive holes!