Lib Dem leadership contest?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by TheNewNo2, 8 May 2015.

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  1. TheNewNo2

    TheNewNo2 Member

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    The exit polls predict that the Lib Dems will get 10 seats, and the results in so far show the Lib Dem vote share has almost completely collapsed, to the point that thus far they have mostly been beaten by the Greens and lost most of their deposits.

    I think it's pretty clear that the Lib Dems have collapsed totally, and so Nick Clegg's situation as leader is untenable. Who do you think will be the next Lib Dem leader, or will they even survive as a party?
     
  2. Flying Snail

    Flying Snail Member

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    The inevitable junior coalition partner backlash. It is often a no-win situation, refuse to join and form a government you will be slaughtered at a re-election from a hung parliament or form a government and support a party whose policies your core supporters disagree with.

    It happens here regularly, the smaller party suffers far more for failing to keep the big party in check than the big party suffers for their bad government.

    If the loser is strong enough with their core supporters they just about survive to build back up in the next few terms, if they are too small then they get wiped out.

    Changing leaders may seem to be the best thing to do following a big loss but I doubt it will have any great effect either way, the only thing that will help the LDs is time, enough for people to forget why they ditched them in droves now or more importantly enough time to find more timely things to hate about the other parties.

    Sorry that that doesn't really answer the question, at this stage it is more an issue of which of them are left to take over from Clegg.
     
  3. me123

    me123 Established Member

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    Clegg has survived. Might make him a bit more difficult to oust.
     
  4. Johnuk123

    Johnuk123 Established Member

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    He'll be gone very very soon.
     
  5. Jonny

    Jonny Established Member

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    Who's going to replace him?
     
  6. Johnuk123

    Johnuk123 Established Member

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    Will be hard from 8 mp's.
     
  7. bb21

    bb21 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Whoever it is, it will be a fresh face, and it will be an opportunity to shake off the past and present the party as a new-start.

    Unfortunately Clegg has become an image of the last five years, a reminder of the coalition government and all of LibDem's failures in those last five years. (They of course have achieved a few things but people will be unlikely to remember that.) He has therefore, as this election has shown, become a liability for the party. Without him standing down it would be pretty difficult for the party to move on.
     
  8. Ironside

    Ironside Member

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    With so few lib dems left, I don't think him resigning unless one of those few is exceptionally talented.
     
  9. bb21

    bb21 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    The chosen one can always be mentored for a few years if necessary unless none of the eight has the right qualities, which I highly doubt. There is no point rushing it now. It is going to take a good while to make back all the lost ground anyway.
     
  10. ainsworth74

    ainsworth74 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Why does the leader have to be an MP?
     
  11. Ironside

    Ironside Member

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    They don't but it does look a bit odd when they arnt, unless they they are a new party.
     
  12. ainsworth74

    ainsworth74 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    Well after a drubbing like this I rather think the Lib Dems might need a reboot on the level of being a 'new party'!
     
  13. bb21

    bb21 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    It doesn't have to be an MP but it would be an obvious starting point. (Norman Lamb as the leader of the Lib Dems anyone? ;))

    Aside from Clegg and possibly Norman Lamb, I don't think there are any high-profile Lib Dem MPs left.
     
  14. jcollins

    jcollins Veteran Member

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    Leader of a Party doesn't have to be a MP - see the Greens, UKIP or SNP. You could in theory put Vince Cable as leader despite him losing his seat but as someone who's unlikely to stand in 5 years time that probably wouldn't be a good decision.
     
  15. me123

    me123 Established Member

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    I'm not sure who could take over from the current crop of MPs. All of them have at least had some political experience:

    Alistair Carmichael, Orkney & Shetland, has government experience as Scottish Minister, but I'm not convinced that he's the best choice to speak nationally. Orcadians and Shetlanders, as I've said before, are still more likely to support that candidate rather than the party and may resist their MP being occupied with national issues. Furthermore, the unique demands of that constituency (requiring to serve to groups of islands that are notoriously difficult to travel between) could mean that he would be unable to assume the role whilst serving his constituents.

    Tim Farron, Westmorland & Lonsdale, was president of the party, has held his seat for 10 years to date, and served as environment spokesman for a while. Maybe not the most impressive credentials, but you've got so few MPs to choose from. He could go for it.

    Greg Mulholland, Leeds North West, has also held his seat for 10 years, and served as health and education spokesman and has some experience as a spokesman and on committees, but not much in a leadership role.

    Nick Clegg, Sheffield Hallam, is the likely outgoing incumbent. He won't stay.

    Norman Lamb, Norfolk North, is probably the most likely candidate. He has slightly more experience (elected in 2001), has ministerial experience in the coalition, and I suspect is the most likely MP to take the role.

    Mark Williams, Ceredigion, hasn't really been a high profile Lib Dem, and I doubt he really has the credentials to compete against the other MPs. On the other hand, given the dire result, perhaps a fresh face is what's needed?

    Tom Brake, Carshalton & Wallington, has had front bench experience since his election in 1997, but has been quieter as of late. He didn't hold any particularly important or high-profile offices in the coalition. Possibly a credible candidate, but I suspect he's not aiming towards leadership.

    John Pugh, Southport, has again had front bench experience, but has focussed on back bench activities during the coalition. Again, I don't think leadership is his aim.

    I'd agree that none of them are likely to be credible candidates. However, as has been said, you don't need to be an MP. However, I think you'd have to hold a reasonable office. Perhaps the Lib Dems as a pro-European party will choose one of their 12 MEPs, who might be in a good place to support our membership in the EU in our forthcoming referendum.
    --- old post above --- --- new post below ---
    True, however SNP's leader is the First Minister of Scotland, and UKIP's leader is a high profile MEP. Only the Greens are represented by a politician who does not currently hold office.

    I think it's unlikely that a party would nominate someone who has just suffered a crushing defeat to lead it going forward!
     
  16. Johnuk123

    Johnuk123 Established Member

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    Now that the Liberals have virtually ceased to exist they could have anybody whatsoever as leader, nobody cares and nobody is interested.
     
  17. TheNewNo2

    TheNewNo2 Member

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    I guess the leader is guaranteed to be a middle-aged white man, judging by the names of their MPs...
     
  18. jcollins

    jcollins Veteran Member

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    He was one of the most vocal MPs about getting Pacers replaced though.
     
  19. me123

    me123 Established Member

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    He might as well bang on about scrapping pacers, no-one's going to listen to the Lib Dems any more. A shame, because they had some cracking local MPs who've lost their seats through no real fault of their own.
     
  20. jcollins

    jcollins Veteran Member

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    Does anyone have the full list of Lib Dems which have been re-elected?
     
  21. bb21

    bb21 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    The list is in Post 15. me123 did a good summary of each one.

    (No, your eyes did not deceive you. There are eight LibDem MPs left.)
     
  22. edwin_m

    edwin_m Veteran Member

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    I actually think Nick Clegg made the best of a bad lot. The arithmetic in 2010 meant he couldn't go into power with Labour unless a collection of other parties had joined as well, and while I certainly don't agree with all of what they did, I think there was a need to have a strong government at the time. However he would have been better advised not to look as if he was enjoying it so much...

    I suspect we are now going to find out what a Tory government would have done without the restraining influence of the Lib Dems.
     
  23. bb21

    bb21 Moderator Staff Member Moderator

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    First thing, force snooping legislation through parliament.

    Theresa May said it herself during the interview, not in these exact words, but that was what she meant in her own roundabout way pretending it was something else.

    No one to stop them now.
     
  24. telstarbox

    telstarbox Established Member

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    I would have said Vince Cable but as he's now gone, Tim Farron who has just retained his seat.
     
  25. MidlandMainlie

    MidlandMainlie Member

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    Tim Farron and Norman Lamb are the two most likely candidates. Funnily enough to stand as a candidate for the leadership requires the support of 10% of MP's which equates to 0.8 of an MP :) Farron as former president of the party also has a good relationship and strong support from Lib Dem activists.
     
  26. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    Farron or Lamb - Farron perhaps based on his (alleged) record of opposing his colleagues in government
     
  27. TheKnightWho

    TheKnightWho Established Member

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    As well as 200 members or something :p
    --- old post above --- --- new post below ---
    Thank you for speaking on everyone's behalf John.

    You know, you're a delight to have on this forum sometimes. It's almost like you're a gigantic hypocrite - crying and getting insulted when things don't go your way, and gloating when they do :roll:

    Your beloved Nigel did terribly. No-one cares who UKIP's leader is either.
     
  28. 47802

    47802 Established Member

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    They still had 2.4 million votes so I don't think they have exactly ceased to exist.

    If Labour decide to go further Left which some seem to want, which in my view would be political suicide in England then there is plenty of ground for the Lib Dems to build on.
     
  29. jcollins

    jcollins Veteran Member

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    Tony Blair has warned them not to do that and to instead go in the other direction. Specifically he's said don't just praise hard working families but to have policies which will make them think Labour is the best party.
     
  30. edwin_m

    edwin_m Veteran Member

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    I can't help thinking that if Tony Blair wants Labour to do something, about half the party will want to do the opposite.
     
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