Liberal Democrats - where next for them?

[AlterEgo]

We've talked about the disastrous election results for Labour, and we've talked about where they might head next ideologically.

What about the Lib Dems? With Brexit a certainty now, what do they turn their attention to? Given the party rules say the leader must be a sitting MP, who will they elect as their leader next?

For my money, the Lib Dems are spent as an electoral force, having, in my view, abandoned centrism in any meaningful sense. They've struggled to attract the talent they used to; remember Ashdown and Kennedy?

Where do you see the Lib Dems' future?

 

[nlogax]

In an ideal world the LDs would disband, figure out their stance and return to parliament with a renewed vision and fresh policies - if they agreed to remain intact as a party at all. In the context of Brexit on the cusp of actually happening, and with 11 sitting MPs they're a bit stuck, likely having to morph in the same way as Labour had to in the late 80s and early 90s.

Surely this will have to be a case of going back to the basics of identifying what it is they actually believe in and wish to strive for in a post-Brexit world, and maybe voting for a leader who people actually like and respect. Like other parties they're fighting for a diminishing pool of political talent and mindshare. I don't see the LDs undergoing a transformation independently of other parties. Labour's long overdue implosion will inevitably to feed into what this reinvented centre-left party will become. It's going to take a few years.

 

[notlob.divad]

I think they will just give Davey the leadership. They have only just had a contest, and he was the only other candidate to Swinson.

There result in terms of % votes was actually decent last week. They had the biggest increase in vote share of any party, and they only lost Swinson's seat by 150 votes. But that vote is spread here there and everywhere, as a result FPTP kills them. They need to get back to what they did best (before Clegg-mania) they need to think local, use their presence on the national stage to leverage the local councils they held, and start to re-solidify their base. Focus their resources in places they can win influence and re-gain people's trust. I think abandoning their 'remain' platform would be a mistake, but it will have to lie dorment for a while. If as the majority of economists and observers expect, Brexit hits the economy, then it will be the time to return, but being careful to avoid the "we told you so" line.

 

[TheBigD]

We've talked about the disastrous election results for Labour, and we've talked about where they might head next ideologically.

What about the Lib Dems? With Brexit a certainty now, what do they turn their attention to? Given the party rules say the leader must be a sitting MP, who will they elect as their leader next?

For my money, the Lib Dems are spent as an electoral force, having, in my view, abandoned centrism in any meaningful sense. They've struggled to attract the talent they used to; remember Ashdown and Kennedy?

Where do you see the Lib Dems' future?

With politics more polarised is there a space for the Lid Dems?

Over the last decade they've managed to piss off the student vote, Ukip/Brexit party became the place for the protest vote, those on the left hate them for the coalition, those on the right now vote for the Tories, and Jo "it's all about me me me" Swinson's disastrous election campaign even alienated remainders.

I'm not optimistic a new leader is going to turn that around. I suspect they'll bump along with their 11 MPs and their fortunes will depend on what direction Labour go.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I think they will just give Davey the leadership. They have only just had a contest, and he was the only other candidate to Swinson.
Their result in terms of % votes was actually decent last week. They had the biggest increase in vote share of any party, and they only lost Swinson's seat by 150 votes.

Agreed. They will stay around and bide their time.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

With politics more polarised is there a space for the Lid Dems?

I'm not optimistic a new leader is going to turn that around. I suspect they'll bump along with their 11 MPs and their fortunes will depend on what direction Labour go.

If Labour go more left (is that possible?) or even stay as left as they are - I think there is a place for the Lib Dems. If people get sick of polarized politics, I also think Lib Dems will be a place they can go. Certainly FPTP screws them

 

[TheBigD]

I think they will just give Davey the leadership. They have only just had a contest, and he was the only other candidate to Swinson.

I suspect Christine Jardine/Layla Moran might have something to say on that. The new MP for St Albans, Daisy Cooper wasn't ruling it out either on LBC last Sunday morning.

Tim Farron has definitely ruled it out.

 

[Enthusiast]

They need to change their name for a start as they are neither liberal not democratic.

 

[D365]

They need to change their name for a start as they are neither liberal not democratic.

In comparison to whom?

The most disappointing thing for me is coming to terms with the fact that a genuinely viable centre-left party does not appear to be a possibility in the near future. I can't imagine my political stance being particularly unique among electorate.

 

[cactustwirly]

They actually did really well near me, almost unseating John Redwood and cutting Theresa May's majority by over 7000 votes, unfortunately it wasn't enough to actually win any seats.

 

[Comstock]

They actually did really well near me, almost unseating John Redwood and cutting Theresa May's majority by over 7000 votes, unfortunately it wasn't enough to actually win any seats.

Well exactly, they are still a clear second in many constituencies where Labour are nowhere.

Labour's best shot at winning in 2024 may be some sort of pact with the LibDems, which offers opportunities for them maybe?

 

[edwin_m]

I think they will just give Davey the leadership. They have only just had a contest, and he was the only other candidate to Swinson.

There result in terms of % votes was actually decent last week. They had the biggest increase in vote share of any party, and they only lost Swinson's seat by 150 votes. But that vote is spread here there and everywhere, as a result FPTP kills them. They need to get back to what they did best (before Clegg-mania) they need to think local, use their presence on the national stage to leverage the local councils they held, and start to re-solidify their base. Focus their resources in places they can win influence and re-gain people's trust. I think abandoning their 'remain' platform would be a mistake, but it will have to lie dorment for a while. If as the majority of economists and observers expect, Brexit hits the economy, then it will be the time to return, but being careful to avoid the "we told you so" line.

I'd largely agree with that. Tactical factors probably counted against them in most constituencies, people either feeling that a LibDem vote would let Corbyn in or later on realizing Corbyn had no chance of winning and in most places a vote for Labour was the best hope of stopping Boris. So their true level of support might be closer to the 20% or so earlier in the campaign.

Their policy of going for government and standing in every seat (which admittedly they've done as long as I can remember) almost certainly increased the Tory majority. So probably they should aim to be more selective and not stand everywhere, especially where the person most likely to beat the Tory is a Labour moderate who can act as a restraining influence on some of the more radical left policies. But all this does depend in a big way on where Labour goes over the next couple of years.

 

[mmh]

Their policy of going for government and standing in every seat (which admittedly they've done as long as I can remember)

Are you sure about that? They deliberately didn't stand against Plaid Cymru and the Green Party in seats where they're less popular.

I don't know if this feeble attempt at a "remain alliance" went down well in LibDem circles, but it was badly received by PC supporters.

 

[Enthusiast]

In comparison to whom?

Anybody who would consider the unilateral dismissal of a decision made by 17.4m people as somewhat undemocratic.

Allegedly the three year argument over Brexit was not that it should happen but how it should happen. The LD 2017 manifesto said this:

"The Liberal Democrats are the only party that will give the people a chance to change Britain’s future by holding a referendum on the final Brexit deal with the option to remain in the European Union. This will be the only opportunity for the British public to reject a ‘hard’ Brexit that means leaving the single market, ending freedom of movement and abandoning the customs union."

So, no mention of ditching it entirely without reference to the electorate. Then in 2019 along comes their dearly departed leader of four months and publishes a manifesto that declares they will do exactly that. They gained 1.3m votes on the back of that (principally from Remainers who had nowhere else to go). But clearly not enough for even some staunch Remainers believed it was a step to far to simply kick the referendum result into touch. Their attitude was that if they get a sniff of power the 17.4m can shove it.

 

[hexagon789]

Personally I think they are now in much the same situation as the Liberals were frolics 1945 into the 1960s. Whether they remain at rock bottom with just a core rump of seats really depends on the nation's situation and politics in the next 5 years. I don't think they'll return to the heady heights of 62 seats for years if ever somehow though.

 

[Ianno87]

Honestly? As much I still personally believe Brexit is a monumentally collosally daft thing for the country to be embarking upon, I think it's time for all the Stop Brexit campaigning to end as it's basically an inevitability.

Once, by the time the next election has come around in 5 years' time, voters the northern mining towns realise that they've been screwed over, infrastructure is just as strained as it always was, and there is the realisation that the grass is not indeed greener outside the EU, perhaps a new centrist movement (with the corresponding part of the Labour spectrum) to be progressive once again and set about rejoining the EU.

 

[edwin_m]

Anybody who would consider the unilateral dismissal of a decision made by 17.4m people as somewhat undemocratic.

Allegedly the three year argument over Brexit was not that it should happen but how it should happen. The LD 2017 manifesto said this:

"The Liberal Democrats are the only party that will give the people a chance to change Britain’s future by holding a referendum on the final Brexit deal with the option to remain in the European Union. This will be the only opportunity for the British public to reject a ‘hard’ Brexit that means leaving the single market, ending freedom of movement and abandoning the customs union."

So, no mention of ditching it entirely without reference to the electorate. Then in 2019 along comes their dearly departed leader of four months and publishes a manifesto that declares they will do exactly that. They gained 1.3m votes on the back of that (principally from Remainers who had nowhere else to go). But clearly not enough for even some staunch Remainers believed it was a step to far to simply kick the referendum result into touch. Their attitude was that if they get a sniff of power the 17.4m can shove it.

If the LibDems had obtained a Parliamentary majority they would have claimed a democratic mandate to cancel Brexit, just as the Tories having obtained a majority are now claiming a mandate to push their deal through. It was politically inept of the LibDems to make that commitment - both because of how it looked and because they've long been opposed to a voting system that gives disproportionate power to a government that doesn't get a majority of the popular vote. But it wasn't undemocratic under the standard of democracy we live with under first past the post.

 

[underbank]

Perhaps Tim Farron can be persuaded to become leader again. He's an exceptional and very popular MP in his constituency. He's Northern so he could help capture some of the disenfranchised Northern voters. They've only a pool of 11 MPs to choose from, so it's not as if there's much choice.

 

[hexagon789]

Perhaps Tim Farron can be persuaded to become leader again.

Doubt it somehow, my money's on Davey

 

[nlogax]

Perhaps Tim Farron can be persuaded to become leader again.

Nope. He already ruled himself out three days ago.

 

[underbank]

Nope. He already ruled himself out three days ago.

That's shame, still the country's loss is Kendal's gain.

 

[edwin_m]

If Farron were to stand again the press would just bring up again the conflict between his Christian beliefs and party policy. I doubt he'd want to go through that personally and it wouldn't be good for the party either.

 

[tbtc]

For my money, the Lib Dems are spent as an electoral force, having, in my view, abandoned centrism in any meaningful sense. They've struggled to attract the talent they used to; remember Ashdown and Kennedy?

When were they a major electoral force though?

They finished a distant third at the election, but they almost always finish a distant third at the election (since the high water mark of the SDP/ Liberal alliance) - this is hardly any different

The leadership isn't as talented as it used to be? Same could be said of Labour considering Rebecca Long Bailey for leadership because Laura Pidcock lost her seat - when you consider the talented cabinet the party had twenty years ago - politics is no longer as attractive for the truly talented, which is why we are stuck with the quirky eccentrics who have egos to feed or talentless fundamentalists who couldn't earn significantly more money elsewhere

Seems its okay for people on the far left/ far right to have "principled" positions that aren't electorally successful but if the LibDems can't win power with their centralism then people see there being no point to them - maybe "principles" don't count unless they are extreme ones, dunno.

I'd largely agree with that. Tactical factors probably counted against them in most constituencies, people either feeling that a LibDem vote would let Corbyn in or later on realizing Corbyn had no chance of winning and in most places a vote for Labour was the best hope of stopping Boris. So their true level of support might be closer to the 20% or so earlier in the campaign

I'd agree with that 20% figure.

The problem is that, in a FPTP general election, the LibDem vote will always get squeezed - this time round the argument was along the lines of "if you don't vote Labour then I suppose you enjoy seeing kids on hospital floors and millions dying due to austerity" and "if you do vote Labour then I suppose you want to turn Britain into an anti-semitic version of Venezuela" - no wonder a lot of people who'd like to support the third party felt compelled to back the least worst of the big two parties. Massive guilt trip in last week's election (if you don't vote for us then you hate the NHS or you hate the Queen/ Armed Forces etc). With a fairer voting system, they'd take around a fifth of the vote because it'd be safe to vote yellow without it guaranteeing a red or blue landslide

Their policy of going for government and standing in every seat (which admittedly they've done as long as I can remember) almost certainly increased the Tory majority. So probably they should aim to be more selective and not stand everywhere, especially where the person most likely to beat the Tory is a Labour moderate who can act as a restraining influence on some of the more radical left policies. But all this does depend in a big way on where Labour goes over the next couple of years.

Sounds fair in theory but Labour showed absolutely no inclination to help out in such a way (e.g. sending Labour canvassers to Finchley & Golders Green in the final days of campaigning, even though Burger would have had a decent chance of unseating the Tories) - whilst the LibDems were able to find common ground with the Greens/ Plaid, Labour showed no willingness to help LIbDems (there were a number of seats where the LibDem vote was the difference between Labour/Tory votes but there were also a number of seats where the Labour vote was the difference between Tory/ LibDem votes - it cuts both ways).

Plus there's the way that roughly half of LibDem voters are "wet" Tories, so wouldn't want to vote for a party that would only exist to prop up Labour - I'd like to think that there's scope for a third party at national elections, rather than seeing the LibDems reduced to being a kind of "Labour b-team"

Anybody who would consider the unilateral dismissal of a decision made by 17.4m people as somewhat undemocratic

I'm struggling to see why saying that you'd pursue a particular policy if you won a national election outright is undemocratic?

They lost the referendum on proportional representation - are they undemocratic for still wanting to change the voting system? Same with the SNP losing the Independence referendum - are they undemocratic for still wanting an independent Scotland?

Or should parties be forced to only carry out things that people have voted for years ago? Is there a deadline, after which it would be okay to want something that was previously rejected? How long did people wait after the 1975 referendum to suggest that they still wanted to leave the EEC?

(similarly, do the three Tory victories on a platform of austerity, continuing with a privatised railway, keeping nuclear weapons, selling arms to dodgy regimes etc mean it'd be undemocratic for parties to suggest that the UK could pursue other courses of action?)

If Farron were to stand again the press would just bring up again the conflict between his Christian beliefs and party policy. I doubt he'd want to go through that personally and it wouldn't be good for the party either.

It's funny how people use Farron's religion as a reason to question his commitment to gay rights but Christians like Rees Mogg seem to be okay with the effects of austerity with nobody asking how homelessness/ poverty etc are compatible with their religion - I'm not defending Farron - I don't agree with the guy - but there's a certain hypocrisy in expecting him to carry out policies in accordance with scripture when little scrutiny is given to other "religious" politicians (or at least ones who want to play the religion card)

 

[Cowley]

Doubt it somehow, my money's on Davey

I felt at the time that they should have gone with him in the first place. Still haven’t changed my mind either.

 

[hexagon789]

I felt at the time that they should have gone with him in the first place. Still haven’t changed my mind either.

I was surprised they picked Swinson over Davey, but politics is full of surprises

 

[bramling]

I think they will just give Davey the leadership. They have only just had a contest, and he was the only other candidate to Swinson.

There result in terms of % votes was actually decent last week. They had the biggest increase in vote share of any party, and they only lost Swinson's seat by 150 votes. But that vote is spread here there and everywhere, as a result FPTP kills them. They need to get back to what they did best (before Clegg-mania) they need to think local, use their presence on the national stage to leverage the local councils they held, and start to re-solidify their base. Focus their resources in places they can win influence and re-gain people's trust. I think abandoning their 'remain' platform would be a mistake, but it will have to lie dorment for a while. If as the majority of economists and observers expect, Brexit hits the economy, then it will be the time to return, but being careful to avoid the "we told you so" line.

The problem with the Lib Dems is that their bounce under Kennedy happened off the back of the Iraq war (which to their credit they sort of got right, albeit possibly for the wrong reasons), at the same time relying on rather volatile groups of voters like students.

I think they are possibly a spent force, as they’ve been in the wilderness for quite a while and the last election proved no breakthrough at all. The way they have carried on over Brexit will have alienated quite a lot of voters.

In all honesty, putting aside views on Brexit, I was pretty unimpressed with some of the rather dirty tactics exhibited by the Lib Dem literature cluttering up my doormat over the last month - not least implying that the local Labour candidate had dropped out and that Labour voters should switch to Lib Dems instead. This is not the first time we’ve had this sort of thing locally, and if this is how they try to win votes then it’s good riddance quite frankly. All I see is bandwagon politics, and that’s how they’ve been for as long as I can remember. Not forgetting of course a message of theirs in the south-west - “vote for us in sunny Torbay as we’re the orange party the colour of sandy beaches and sunshine” - sort of sums them up really.

 

[Master29]

I live in what was once a Lib Dem stronghold but the Tories doubled their majority over them this time round. They didn't exactly help themselves as they must have cut down a rain forest with the amount of post we had which was virtually every day telling us how important it was to unseat the Tories. Literally it was every day.

I think they ruined themselves by Clegg (Oh sorry. Sir Nick) jumping into bed with Cameron much to the horror of Liberal die hards. I think they need to completely reform as a party or perhaps go back to the old Liberal Party, who also had a candidate in my constituency. People probably though of Swinson as a closet Tory anyway. I know I did.

 

[bramling]

I live in what was once a Lib Dem stronghold but the Tories doubled their majority over them this time round. They didn't exactly help themselves as they must have cut down a rain forest with the amount of post we had which was virtually every day telling us how important it was to unseat the Tories. Literally it was every day.

I think they ruined themselves by Clegg (Oh sorry. Sir Nick) jumping into bed with Cameron much to the horror of Liberal die hards. I think they need to completely reform as a party or perhaps go back to the old Liberal Party, who also had a candidate in my constituency. People probably though of Swinson as a closet Tory anyway. I know I did.

Again I think this sums up part of their problem. For the first time in living memory they formed part of a government - a coalition one where compromise was required and happened - and they got pilloried for it. Yet most people I know regard the 2010-15 government as being reasonably satisfactory, and Clegg a reasonably competent DPM.

A lot of the problem is the LDs model themselves far too much as a party of protest. This simply isn’t a reliable enough setup, and history has proven that successful parties need to have ideas of their own. The mountain of stuff I had from them at this election was pretty much 100% bashing either Brexit (mostly) or failing that the other two parties, including some personal attacks on their local candidates. All their local council electioneering here over the years has been along similar lines.

Pretty much all the Lib Dems have been good for is when people want to say “stuff it I’m sick of Labour and the Conservatives I’m voting Lib Dem this time”, or when there’s a bandwagon issue either locally or nationally. This simply isn’t enough to be a credible political force, and I think over time people have seen through this and they’ve been found out.

 

[Master29]

Again I think this sums up part of their problem. For the first time in living memory they formed part of a government - a coalition one where compromise was required and happened - and they got pilloried for it. Yet most people I know regard the 2010-15 government as being reasonably satisfactory, and Clegg a reasonably competent DPM.

A lot of the problem is the LDs model themselves far too much as a party of protest. This simply isn’t a reliable enough setup, and history has proven that successful parties need to have ideas of their own. The mountain of stuff I had from them at this election was pretty much 100% bashing either Brexit (mostly) or failing that the other two parties, including some personal attacks on their local candidates. All their local council electioneering here over the years has been along similar lines.

Pretty much all the Lib Dems have been good for is when people want to say “stuff it I’m sick of Labour and the Conservatives I’m voting Lib Dem this time”, or when there’s a bandwagon issue either locally or nationally. This simply isn’t enough to be a credible political force, and I think over time people have seen through this and they’ve been found out.

Pretty much spot on with the Lib Dems being nothing more than a protest party and having no identity of their own.

 

[edwin_m]

Pretty much spot on with the Lib Dems being nothing more than a protest party and having no identity of their own.

They had a major difference from the policies of the other parties this time … not that it did them much good.