Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[Tomp94]

It's due to end early December.
We all know life isn't going back to normal any time soon
Johnson has said the tier system will come back after the lockdown ends
My guess is that the tier system will be tinkered with, to include harsher restrictions in all tiers, meaning that some businesses that were allowed to open in tiers 1 and 2 will no longer be able to open, and this is why the furlough scheme has been extended. It'll also continue to include no indoor mixing of house holds.


What is everyone else's predictions?
I wish I could predict every business that was open pre lockdown 2.0 re opens in a covid secure way, and authorities and the government are told to shove their fines and their society and economy destroying rules where the sun does not shine.

 

[PTR 444]

My guess is that the whole of England will go into a blanket tier 2 restriction, so no mixing of households but all non-essential businesses can reopen. In addition, a special easement would likely be created to allow people to move to one another household for Christmas if they received a positive test, however they would only be allowed to go there and back once to prevent constant jumping between households. This idea would be similar to the student evacuation plan, and I do think it’s unfair that at the moment, students can go home early while everyone else can’t even if they work from home. After all, the government wanted to save Christmas.

 

[philjo]

There was some discussion on the radio suggesting that the tiers after lockdown would be set by region (e.g. North West England) rather than by county or council area to reduce the confusion of the regulations due to tier boundaries dividing towns etc. E.g. Wigan had different restrictions to Manchester and Liverpool for a short time. Of course there will still be some like that.

 

[Andy Pacer]

There was some discussion on the radio suggesting that the tiers after lockdown would be set by region (e.g. North West England) rather than by county or council area to reduce the confusion of the regulations due to tier boundaries dividing towns etc. E.g. Wigan had different restrictions to Manchester and Liverpool for a short time. Of course there will still be some like that.

There will always be a point where the boundary line seems harsh, but regions definitely seems more sensible and understandable than Counties.

 

[yorksrob]

I don't mind regional restrictions per se, but tier 3 needs to go.

 

[duncanp]

I agree with the notion that the whole of England will go into Tier 2, simply because it will cause a lot of resentment if pubs and restaurants are closed in some parts of the country for Christmas, when they are open in other parts of the country. The government will want to avoid people travelling out of their local area just to get a drink or something to eat.

You may also find that there are some adjustments to the rules about how many people can meet indoors, and from how many different households.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

I don't mind regional restrictions per se, but tier 3 needs to go.

I've heard reports that the government may even introduce a tier 4 with even harsher restrictions for certain areas which will effectively mean they'll still be in full lockdown. I really hope that's not true, we really should be looking at removing all restrictions, not adding more.

 

[Tomp94]

There was some discussion on the radio suggesting that the tiers after lockdown would be set by region (e.g. North West England) rather than by county or council area to reduce the confusion of the regulations due to tier boundaries dividing towns etc. E.g. Wigan had different restrictions to Manchester and Liverpool for a short time. Of course there will still be some like that.

But that's farcical and unfair. I live in Worthing, in terms of the number of cases per 100,000 we have less than half the national average at the moment. It would be unfair to put extra restrictions on us, while more populated areas north of me in say mid Sussex, have higher levels of infection.

I work in a community centre, and am terrified we won't be able to re open in December because either we'd be fully closed as now, or we'd have so few groups that could operate here that it'd be unviable for us to re open -- I'm trying to complete a house purchase, and will be able to complete if it can go through before the lockdown ends -- after that, if I remain furloughed I'll have to let my lender know, and the whole move could be called off!

I agree with the notion that the wohle of England will go into Tier 2, simply because it will cause a lot of resentment if pubs and restaurants are closed in some parts of the country for Christmas, when they are open in other parts of the country. The government will want to avoid people travelling out of their local area just to get a drink or something to eat.

You may also find that there are some adjustments to the rules about how many people can meet indoors, and from how many different households.

Perhaps an end to the "rule of six" then

 

[cuccir]

I'm pretty sure my family in rural Cumbria would be unimpressed with a regional lockdown that would lump them in with restrictions for Gerater Manchester/Merseyside outbreak. I don't see what was wrong with local authority-based, given it's local authorities who hold the cash to manage lockdowns.

 

[yorksrob]

I've heard reports that the government may even introduce a tier 4 with even harsher restrictions for certain areas which will effectively mean they'll still be in full lockdown. I really hope that's not true, we really should be looking at removing all restrictions, not adding more.

I think that if we supposedly come "out" of lockdown only to end up in tier three, it will poison the social contract between the population and the Government.

 

[DustyBin]

I predict regional restrictions as already mentioned and the introduction of a fourth tier which will probably be similar to the current lockdown....

 

[joncombe]

Regarding no mixing of households the Government may mandate it but it won't stop it happening. I was surprised to see this on the BBC Today To quote

A fifth of adults in Britain had direct contact indoors with someone who was not in their household or support bubble at the beginning of November, according to a new survey.

The Office for National Statistics found that 22% of those polled had had physical contact with at least one other person when socialising indoors in the previous 24 hours.

So almost a 1/4 of people had had indoor contact with someone outside their household/support bubble in the past 24 hours when they were surveyed. So take that over the whole period of this lockdown so far and I imagine the percentage of people that have mixed inside with another household at least once to be far higher than 22%. When we approach Christmas and New year if restrictions on household mixing are still in place I suspect they will be so widely flouted that it will become impossible to enforce.

 

[trainophile]

Who's going to give up their Christmas Day leave to go round the suburbs peering through windows to try to catch people out? Pointless nonsense.

I guess the pubs and restaurants will be praying for full re-opening to allow for workplace Christmas parties etc.

 

[MikeWM]

So almost a 1/4 of people had had indoor contact with someone outside their household/support bubble in the past 24 hours when they were surveyed.

And they were the ones who admitted it in the survey! One thing we've learnt is that in these matters a great many people are very much 'do as I say, not as I do'.

 

[AM9]

I predict regional restrictions as already mentioned and the introduction of a fourth tier which will probably be similar to the current lockdown....

News today is that infection rates in the north are falling and rising in the south so maybe there will be a higher tier in the home counties, subject to the hospital admissions genuinely falling in those areas that were put into tier 3.

 

[Crossover]

But that's farcical and unfair. I live in Worthing, in terms of the number of cases per 100,000 we have less than half the national average at the moment. It would be unfair to put extra restrictions on us, while more populated areas north of me in say mid Sussex, have higher levels of infection.

If you want farcical and unfair, maybe one should look no further than the ‘promised wouldn’t happen’ Lockdown 2.0 - many mutterings from those living in the south had been unwillingly dragged into it because of the ‘dirty north’

 

[yorksrob]

News today is that infection rates in the north are falling and rising in the south so maybe there will be a higher tier in the home counties, subject to the hospital admissions genuinely falling in those areas that were put into tier 3.

Or more accurately, tier 2.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I'm starting to suspect that after the grim numbers of cases and deaths reported in the last 48 hours, that Boris won't release the lockdown on the 2nd - regardless of Christmas looming.

Best case scenario is the current lockdown is eased but the whole country reverts back to an amended Tier system to at least allow non essential businesses to profit for the festive season.

Christmas is going to be a massive hurdle and New Year will be worse! My guess is the government will have to create some form of window for families to meet and at least interact for a short time.

I'm predicting the Covid restriction misery is probably going to continue until March/April time. The news about the vaccine is encouraging but even if they start to roll out the programme, it will not be an overnight solution. The estimated time scale is looking at this is as late as next September for it to stablise the Country.

CJ

 

[initiation]

because it will cause a lot of resentment if pubs and restaurants are closed in some parts of the country for Christmas, when they are open in other parts of the country.

Pubs weren't actually closed under the previous tier 3 but you were limited who you could go with. I'm sure that won't stop them changing the rules though with a new tier 4.

I guess the pubs and restaurants will be praying for full re-opening to allow for workplace Christmas parties etc

I honestly can't see very many companies (other than those with just a handful of staff) doing anything like a proper Christmas party. Perhaps individual teams might organise things themselves but there is no way HR/H&S would authorise it. For reference my company of 2000 UK staff has working from home until at least the Spring and office access is limited.

 

[HSTEd]

Well SAGE is demanding "tougher" restrictions.

After all the idea of a short lockdown was a lie to sell it to the public.
It's the same playbook as March.

 

[yorksrob]

Pubs weren't actually closed under the previous tier 3 but you were limited who you could go with. I'm sure that won't stop them changing the rules though with a new tier 4.

That was tier 2. No visiting hospitality with anyone from outside your household, tier 3 No hospitality without a substantial meal.

 

[DustyBin]

News today is that infection rates in the north are falling and rising in the south so maybe there will be a higher tier in the home counties, subject to the hospital admissions genuinely falling in those areas that were put into tier 3.

The North East never made it into tier 3 although it was heading that way.

Well SAGE is demanding "tougher" restrictions.

After all the idea of a short lockdown was a lie to sell it to the public.
It's the same playbook as March.

That's the danger. Was Cummings pro or anti lockdown, does anybody know?

 

[big_rig]

The North East never made it into tier 3 although it was heading that way.



That's the danger. Was Cummings pro or anti lockdown, does anybody know?

From memory it was reported that Cummings played a significant role in having the lockdown introduced in the first place. I remember reading that he made a swift move from 'herd immunity' to pushing the 250,000/500,000 deaths forecasts and following the rest of Europe into lockdown (which I at the time supported but looking back on it there is the argument that cases were falling prior to the lockdown and it was overkill).

 

[philosopher]

Pubs weren't actually closed under the previous tier 3 but you were limited who you could go with. I'm sure that won't stop them changing the rules though with a new tier 4.


I honestly can't see very many companies (other than those with just a handful of staff) doing anything like a proper Christmas party. Perhaps individual teams might organise things themselves but there is no way HR/H&S would authorise it. For reference my company of 2000 UK staff has working from home until at least the Spring and office access is limited.

Any work team party would be restricted to six people and if in a tier two or three area would be restricted to an outdoor activity, which in December may not be too fun. That is of course provided they do not use the business meeting loophole.

 

[birchesgreen]

Who is going to be surprised if the lockdown is extended?

 

[greyman42]

Who is going to be surprised if the lockdown is extended?

I for one do not think it will be.

 

[bramling]

I for one do not think it will be.

I don’t think it will be, as people will go ballistic, and I think even BJ knows that. However, I suspect there will be some level of restriction.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see non-essential shops re-open but pubs remain closed. Unfortunately pre-Christmas isn’t a wonderful time to be re-opening pubs if they’re so worried about them being a spread machine. In reality people will of course simply meet in their homes.

 

[birchesgreen]

I am afraid it will be, but i like being glass half empty in these cases so i can be pleasantly surprised

 

[duncanp]

I don’t think it will be, as people will go ballistic, and I think even BJ knows that. However, I suspect there will be some level of restriction.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see non-essential shops re-open but pubs remain closed. Unfortunately pre-Christmas isn’t a wonderful time to be re-opening pubs if they’re so worried about them being a spread machine. In reality people will of course simply meet in their homes.

I think pubs may remain closed for an extra week (just as a sop to the coronaphobes), but I would be very surprised if they remain closed over Christmas and the New Year. As you say, if pubs are closed then people are going to meet in their homes, where numbers and social distancing will go out the window. So surely it is better to re-open pubs, where the rules can be enforced, especially as data shows that hospitality is only responsible for about 5% of virus transmissions.

With the arch locktivist Dominic Cummings out of the way ( ) Boris Johnson may just decide to put the whole country into Tier 2 for the festive season.

Although I see that "SAGE" are sticking their oar in and saying that if we return to the previous Tiered system, virus transmissions will rise again. I do wish these people would just shut up and let us get on with our lives.

 

[Domh245]

The only politically acceptable extension I can see is a short one of no more than a week, sold specifically on the basis of driving transmission down to allow christmas to be somewhat normal. If not that, I expect a return to tiers on the 3rd