Lines that will be lost due to Climate Change

[randyrippley]

Ultimately, it isn't beyond Network Rail to protect infrastructure when the time comes, however some routes near the sea could become costly to maintain, especially with natural sea erosion, even ignoring the effects of rising sea levels.............

thats not really true....you can defend exposed lines such as Dawlish with enhanced protection, but wetland lines at or below sea level like you have in Somerset, Lancashire and the fens cannot realistically be protected against rising sea levels.
For those areas you cannot protect the railways in isolation: for instance in Somerset you would need to protect all of the levels, and the only way to do that would be to impound Bridgwater Bay and commission massive pumping capability. To protect the Lancashire wetlands you'd need a project equivalent to the Dutch Zuider Zee reclamations, with a sea barrier stretching from somewhere around Formby to Barrow-in-Furness. The pumping capacity required would be overwhelming, though I guess you could get a fair amount of tidal energy out of it. You'd also have to question whether the resources exist to provide enough concrete to build the barrier

 

[HSTEd]

Abandoning a town is highly unlikely to be an economically wise decision.
The cost of housing and the associated infrastructure is so enormous that it would be cheaper to build massive Delta-works sized defences rather than abandon them.

Even five thousand houses, without the other stuff, could easily cost a billion pounds to replace.

 

[reddragon]

Abandoning a town is highly unlikely to be an economically wise decision.
The cost of housing and the associated infrastructure is so enormous that it would be cheaper to build massive Delta-works sized defences rather than abandon them.

Even five thousand houses, without the other stuff, could easily cost a billion pounds to replace.

Fairbourne is to be abandoned as are several East Coast villages. You can't beat the tide!!

 

[HSTEd]

Fairbourne is to be abandoned as are several East Coast villages. You can't beat the tide!!

Will the Gwynedd Council be forced to provide replacement housing for these people?

No, it has simply decided to abrogate its responsibility because it can do so and suffer no negative consequences.

Replacement value for the 450 houses in the village is something approaching £100m.
That is money that society will have to find, let alone all the supporting infrastructure.

It is almost certainly cheaper to defend-in-place, but the accountants just love dumping the externality on other people and ignoring it.

 

[trainmania100]

Close the marshlink and go via Tonbridge

 

[reddragon]

Will the Gwynedd Council be forced to provide replacement housing for these people?

No, it has simply decided to abrogate its responsibility because it can do so and suffer no negative consequences.

Replacement value for the 450 houses in the village is something approaching £100m.
That is money that society will have to find, let alone all the supporting infrastructure.

It is almost certainly cheaper to defend-in-place, but the accountants just love dumping the externality on other people and ignoring it.

Most of the houses under £100k, so less than half that and a fraction of the cost of defending the impossible!

 

[HSTEd]

Most of the houses under £100k

That might have something to do with the fact that the council has effectively condemned them to be lost to the sea, without compensation?

Those 450 houses will need replacing, and the value of an average house in the UK is now £226,000.

The house prices in the area are now , so less than half that and a fraction of the cost of defending the impossible!

It is far from impossible to defend them, in the Netherlands they successfully defend houses that are metres below the low tide mark, let alone below the high tide mark!

The council saves money by condemning the settlement, and has no obligation to provide any compensation, so of course they condemn them so they can get out of their obligations.

 

[Clayton]

That might have something to do with the fact that the council has effectively condemned them to be lost to the sea, without compensation?

Those 450 houses will need replacing, and the value of an average house in the UK is now £226,000.


It is far from impossible to defend them, in the Netherlands they successfully defend houses that are metres below the low tide mark, let alone below the high tide mark!

The council saves money by condemning the settlement, and has no obligation to provide any compensation, so of course they condemn them so they can get out of their obligations.

Like many local authorities the council has no money due to Tory cuts. The government would have to step in but it’s obviously felt the village isn’t worth saving

 

[AM9]

Coastal erosion has always taken place. How on earth do you think that cliffs form?

The first railway lost to the sea was probably Whitby to Redcar in the 1950s, which had a long history of cliffside erosion before it was given up. The current rather strange Whitby service involving reversal at Battersby in the middle of nowhere is a result. Dover to Folkestone built over notably soft chalk likewise has a long history of trouble - it was inconveniently closed for much of World War 1 100 years ago because of it.

I recall both tracks fully wrecked at Dawlish in a 1960s winter storm. Of course, in those days it was sorted out by all the area gangs in days.

As someone has mentioned the Somerset Levels, just about all in West Somerset will tell you that the issues nowadays are entirely down to loonies from Defra in London stopping the longstanding dredging of the main drainage rivers, which had gone on for a couple of centuries. On the Somerton to Taunton stretch Langport station had always flooded most winters (remember those little maps you drew in primary school where you did the wiggly little river and wrote "flood plain" alongside) and was much improved in recent decades until Defra struck. Steam locos used to wade through, to the extent that they arrived at Taunton on what steam remained in the boiler, the fire having been drowned out. Can't do that any more with the shiny new 800s. The main line through Athelney has long been a source of overtime for the Taunton pw crews, huge amounts of ballast have gone in over the years there - but apparently Network Rail don't budget that much for it now. So guess what happens ...

.... flood plains flood when they get too expensive to keep draining.

 

[daodao]

Fairbourne won't be the first bit of the Cardigan bay coast to be lost to the sea. The legend of Cantre’r Gwaelod recalls an earlier such event.

 

[reddragon]

Fairbourne won't be the first bit of the Cardigan bay coast to be lost to the sea. The legend of Cantre’r Gwaelod recalls an earlier such event.

You have been reading about the lost forest exposed by Storm Hannah!

The Solway Junction railway was lost to the sea in 1931, after several viaduct losses!

 

[daodao]

You have been reading about the lost forest exposed by Storm Hannah!

The Solway Junction railway was lost to the sea in 1931, after several viaduct losses!

I've known about the legend of Cantre’r Gwaelod for over 30 years.

 

[bramling]

The Solway Junction railway was lost to the sea in 1931, after several viaduct losses!

That was more down to design issues with the viaduct though, in particular its susceptibility to ice.

 

[6Gman]

Heat as well appears to be a concern, especially with the summers getting progressively warmer year on year. Definitely think air con is going to have to become a staple of many trains going forward!

Which will require extra energy which will mean extra fuel consumption which will mean extra carbon emissions which will mean ...

 

[AM9]

Which will require extra energy which will mean extra fuel consumption which will mean extra carbon emissions which will mean ...

Another turn of the screw to keep some travellers a bit cooler. Tough on everybody else.

 

[kylemore]

Its only utter morons like Trump and greedy Bas****s like oil company bosses who are 'deniers'

Not to mention those utter morons the Maldives Government, once true believers, indeed at the forefront of the cult...sorry, movement, with apocalyptic visions of mass evacuations etc, they are now building a massive $800m airport extension and planning for large population increases. Heretics! Deniers!

Mind you maybe they know something we don't...…..

 

[Robertj21a]

Many years ago I was involved in producing sea level rise maps, now it will take seconds, back then it took weeks.

Doncaster would be a seaside town with a 5m rise.

Might improve the town.....

 

[HSTEd]

I'm afraid we need barrages on all major estuaries. The best thing available to us is to shorten the coastline.

Also the barrages will provide shelter for wildlife and potential floating towns like those starting to develop in the Netherlands.

 

[Meerkat]

Also the barrages will provide shelter for wildlife

The main opposition to barrages is normally birdwatchers with their endless fascination with mud.....

 

[StoneRoad]

Some of L'aal Ratty - alongside the estuary and up to around Muncaster (Mill not Castle) is as close, if not closer, to sea level as Boston Lodge.

 

[HSTEd]

The main opposition to barrages is normally birdwatchers with their endless fascination with mud.....

Unfortunately that mud will largely go when sea level rise puts it under anyway

 

[CaptainHaddock]

It's just a hunch but my guess is that no lines will be lost to climate change and in 30 years time the usual eco-nutters will still be banging on hysterically about the impending climate emergency, just like they've been doing for the past 30 years.

We"ve all read the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, haven't we?

 

[Clayton]

It's just a hunch but my guess is that no lines will be lost to climate change and in 30 years time the usual eco-nutters will still be banging on hysterically about the impending climate emergency, just like they've been doing for the past 30 years.

We"ve all read the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, haven't we?

Top scientist, are you? Otherwise be quiet

 

[kylemore]

It's just a hunch but my guess is that no lines will be lost to climate change and in 30 years time the usual eco-nutters will still be banging on hysterically about the impending climate emergency, just like they've been doing for the past 30 years.

We"ve all read the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, haven't we?

My hunch as well, and there are plenty of "Top scientists" who agree or at least are uncomfortable with the alarmist hysteria.

So please don't "be quiet"!

 

[George Buckley]

Oban and Kyle Of Lochalsh stations are both potentially at risk as both the stations are on the quay side!

 

[Elwyn]

It's just a hunch but my guess is that no lines will be lost to climate change and in 30 years time the usual eco-nutters will still be banging on hysterically about the impending climate emergency, just like they've been doing for the past 30 years.

We"ve all read the story of The Boy Who Cried Wolf, haven't we?

Sir John Franklin set off in 1845 to find the North West Passage. As everyone knows he was frozen in and his expedition came to grief. In the 19th century no-one ever succeeded in getting through from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Ever. However today cruise ships do it every summer. Funny that. I wonder what changed? Why has all the ice suddenly gone away?

 

[Chester1]

If Fairbourne does become the first village to go due to climate change impacts, wouldn't the Cambrian Coast line by default be "the first" railway to be lost as the village is served by the said line?

Also while its effects may not perfectly offset rising sea levels this century, post-glacial rebound is raising land in north Wales, northern England and Scotland, which will slow down the effects of rising sea levels in this area. In contrast, everywhere else land is falling, so the low railways of East Anglia and the south coastal routes have more to worry about.

The cost of protecting the village and the railway are different. There is a significant risk of the sea wall being breached and water surging into the village. That would kill people and wash much of the village away. The railway could be raised a bit and repaired if or when it is breached. It would provide a degree of protection to the A493 too.

That might have something to do with the fact that the council has effectively condemned them to be lost to the sea, without compensation?

Those 450 houses will need replacing, and the value of an average house in the UK is now £226,000.


It is far from impossible to defend them, in the Netherlands they successfully defend houses that are metres below the low tide mark, let alone below the high tide mark!

The council saves money by condemning the settlement, and has no obligation to provide any compensation, so of course they condemn them so they can get out of their obligations.

The value of property in the wider area is much lower than the UK average. £75m would be my guess for the real value of the 450 homes. If Fairbourne was a town of 10,000 or 20,000 people then a Dutch scheme would make sense. Its just 450 homes on land that is barely above sea level and surrounded on three sides by the sea and a river estuary. Its easy to see why the decision to abandon Fairbourne has been made. Gwynedd Council should not be paying compensation. A demolition and compensation scheme should be funded by the Welsh Government (environment being a devolved area).

 

[DPWH]

The consensus amongst scientists is that climate change is happening. Temperatures have increased over the past 100 years, and are set to increase further. That's what scientists do - they observe and report. The question for people, particularly politicians, is what we and they can do to address the problem.

Of course, pretending it doesn't exist is a way of addressing the problem. It's a way that won't help things in the long term, but it preserves the status quo at least. But there is a notable discourse disconnect between economists and ecologists.

 

[RSimons]

My hunch as well, and there are plenty of "Top scientists" who agree or at least are uncomfortable with the alarmist hysteria.

So please don't "be quiet"!

If global warming, resulting in climate change, is not taking place then 150 years of physics is wrong. Expecting a sea level rise of 20m is being realistic. Alarmism is saying it could happen within 50 years.

(Editted because I accidentally hit the ‘post’ button)

 

[Julia]

How high above the winter water is the Ely to Peterborough line?

Tolerably, as it's all on embankment. Ely-Norwich is arguably more problematic, particularly around Shippea Hill where the land (apart from the summit of the "hill" - Shippea was once an island) is already below sea level.

And there's a reason why Waterbeach is named thus...