Lockdown in England from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December

[DB]

I am hearing Boris will address the nation on Monday with details of the new restrictions coming on from 03•DMR•20.

The question is whether they will be even worse then the current ones!

 

[kez19]

I am hearing Boris will address the nation on Monday with details of the new restrictions coming on from 03•DMR•20.

Probably tell us Christmas trees spread Covid next...

 

[Yew]

The question is whether they will be even worse then the current ones!

I suppose we will find out if this "strictly time-limited" measure will be as described...

 

[trainophile]

I wonder how we will stand if he does extend it after assuring us it would end on 2nd December, given that people may have made plans involving travel, hairdressing etc, for the following period. Don't envy the rail companies and hotels fielding yet more refund claims.

 

[35B]

I wonder how we will stand if he does extend it after assuring us it would end on 2nd December, given that people may have made plans involving travel, hairdressing etc, for the following period. Don't envy the rail companies and hotels fielding yet more refund claims.

Look at Ulster for the impact of believing promises no politician can reasonably make.

 

[duncanp]

I am hearing Boris will address the nation on Monday with details of the new restrictions coming on from 03•DMR•20.

Where did you hear that from?

I can't see it mentioned anywhere on any of the usual news sites.

 

[joncombe]

Where did you hear that from?

I can't see it mentioned anywhere on any of the usual news sites.

It is hinted at on the front page of the Telegraph today (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs/the_papers) you can read it if you zoom in enough. Though it does seem to be the only paper that mentions it, but I would not be at all surprised. I think anyone that thought we'd go back to the previous set of restrictions on the 3rd of December was a huge optimist.

 

[duncanp]

I have a subscription to The Telegraph, and the most relevant article I can find is the one below:-

Exclusive: Families set for week of freedom in Christmas easing of Covid restrictions

Boris Johnson prepares to announce relaxation of rules from December 22 to 28, allowing several families to join one 'bubble'

www.telegraph.co.uk

The closest to a hint is

• The Government announcement of a "winter plan", which could come as early as Monday, will also see Mr Johnson set out details of "strengthened tiers" to replace the current system of restrictions.

The other relevant sentences are:-

• "But the Prime Minister will say that the strength of the restrictions for the rest of next month will depend on how well the public complies with the current lockdown, which expires on December 2"
• While three tiers are expected to remain, each is likely to be bolstered, so that demands which previously applied to Tier 2 – such as a ban on household indoor mixing – may apply at the lowest level.
  
  
• Government sources said the new system would be more "consistent", with clear rules attached to each tier. Some new elements will be introduced, with gyms and leisure facilities allowed to remain open in all parts of the country regardless of the tier an area is in.
  
  
• Crucially, decisions about which areas are placed into which tiers will be made by central Government. Ministers hope to avoid the stand-offs and wrangling seen earlier this year when Greater Manchester council refused to accept Tier 3 status (see video below).
• Ministers will wait until the end of the week to announce the placing of different areas into tiers, with assessment linked to the latest infections data.

There is nothing specific about the hospitality sector, but given the statement above about gyms and leisure facilities, it may be that pubs in Tier 3 are allowed to serve alcohol without meals, provided that they observe all the other protocols about households meeting and distancing. The reason I say this is that there was not a big spike of cases when pubs re-opened in July, and that was without compulsory track & trace, masks and the 10pm closing time. The government will also want to avoid people travelling from an area where places are closed to one where they are open. However, this is all speculation, and we shall just have to wait and see.

Families will be allowed to meet for up to a week at Christmas – but tough restrictions could remain in place until then under Government plans to be announced early next week.
Boris Johnson is preparing to announce a UK-wide relaxation of rules from December 22 to 28, allowing several families to join in one "bubble", The Telegraph can reveal.
But the Prime Minister will say that the strength of the restrictions for the rest of next month will depend on how well the public complies with the current lockdown, which expires on December 2.
On Friday night, ministers heralded "a ray of light" in the Covid battle, with the NHS gearing up to administer the first jabs.
Every adult in England could be vaccinated by April under NHS draft plans which would see 44 million people receive jabs within five months. Under the timetable, roll-out for people aged 18 to 50 could even start in late January after older people and care workers are vaccinated.
The provisional schedule – which depends on the authorisation and arrival of millions of vaccines – sees care home residents and staff, NHS workers and the elderly starting to receive jabs before Christmas, and a far wider roll-out in the New Year.

Health officials said it was too early to commit to the timetable in the plans, which were leaked to Health Service Journal, but on Friday night Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, said he was growing "more and more confident" that life will be closer to normal in the spring.
Mr Hancock said Britain was now "clearly near the peak" of the pandemic's second wave, with figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggesting that infections have dropped by almost one fifth in a week.
He told a Downing Street press conference: "This is a virus that has cast a shadow over this incredibly difficult year. And we've always known that the best long-term answer will be the ray of light provided by a vaccine."
On Friday, the Health Secretary asked British regulators to start their assessment of the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine, with hopes that it could receive approval within days of them receiving full safety data on Monday.
"This is another important step forward in tackling this pandemic," he said, adding that the NHS would be ready to start vaccinations next month. Trial data found that the vaccine offers 95 per cent protection against Covid and works just as well in older people, with no major safety concerns.

Health chiefs said the NHS was having to plan for many different scenarios, and that the draft vaccine schedule drawn up a week ago had since been amended in light of updated information from manufacturers.
But on Friday night Professor Jonathan Van Tam, the deputy chief medical officer, said the health service intended to "move with as much pace as we can possibly muster" with only a matter of weeks difference between priority groups.
Next week, Mr Johnson is expected to outline a "four nations" plan for Christmas, setting out proposals for families to spend up to seven days together. Government sources said it would be "inconceivable" that families would not be allowed to attend Christmas church services, with talks between the nations on the details of the plans.
Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, is understood to have pushed for the freedoms to be introduced several days before Christmas, starting on December 22, to allow pubs and restaurants to enjoy some "normal days" of trade before the holiday.
A Whitehall source said consideration had been given to lifting restrictions on December 24 but it was feared that would not give businesses enough time to benefit from pre-Christmas footfall.
The Government announcement of a "winter plan", which could come as early as Monday, will also see Mr Johnson set out details of "strengthened tiers" to replace the current system of restrictions.
While three tiers are expected to remain, each is likely to be bolstered, so that demands which previously applied to Tier 2 – such as a ban on household indoor mixing – may apply at the lowest level.
Government sources said the new system would be more "consistent", with clear rules attached to each tier. Some new elements will be introduced, with gyms and leisure facilities allowed to remain open in all parts of the country regardless of the tier an area is in.
Crucially, decisions about which areas are placed into which tiers will be made by central Government. Ministers hope to avoid the stand-offs and wrangling seen earlier this year when Greater Manchester council refused to accept Tier 3 status (see video below).

Ministers will wait until the end of the week to announce the placing of different areas into tiers, with assessment linked to the latest infections data.
The ONS confirmed on Friday that daily coronavirus infections in England have fallen significantly for the first time in the second wave.
The official 'R' value has also dropped to between 1.0 and 1.1, down from 1.0 to 1.2 last week. The 'R' value is several weeks out of date, so does not reflect the impact of the second national lockdown, which was brought in on November 5.
The ONS surveillance data showed that daily infection rates in the week up to November 14, were 38,900 per day, down from 45,700 the previous week – a drop of 18 per cent.

 

[Jamesrob637]

So nothing is certain until probably around the 15th of December

 

[Chester1]

I am expecting Greater Manchester to go back into Tier 3 until Christmas. Tier 3 seemed to be not quite capable of keeping the R below 1 in cities but mass testing should be able to get it below the line. Tier 1 is inadequate for rural areas with them starting to catch up before lockdown. A Tier 2 / Tier 3 division across England makes the most sense to reduce spread before Christmas. I would reintroduce eat out to help out for Tier 3 areas to encourage households to go out to compensate for loss of custom from households not being able to mix indoors.

 

[trainophile]

So nothing is certain until probably around the 15th of December

If that's the case I intend to stick with my plans for 3rd to whenever they announce anything different.

 

[big_rig]

I have a subscription to The Telegraph, and the most relevant article I can find is the one below:-

Exclusive: Families set for week of freedom in Christmas easing of Covid restrictions

Boris Johnson prepares to announce relaxation of rules from December 22 to 28, allowing several families to join one 'bubble'

www.telegraph.co.uk

The closest to a hint is

• The Government announcement of a "winter plan", which could come as early as Monday, will also see Mr Johnson set out details of "strengthened tiers" to replace the current system of restrictions.

The other relevant sentences are:-

• "But the Prime Minister will say that the strength of the restrictions for the rest of next month will depend on how well the public complies with the current lockdown, which expires on December 2"
• While three tiers are expected to remain, each is likely to be bolstered, so that demands which previously applied to Tier 2 – such as a ban on household indoor mixing – may apply at the lowest level.
  
  
• Government sources said the new system would be more "consistent", with clear rules attached to each tier. Some new elements will be introduced, with gyms and leisure facilities allowed to remain open in all parts of the country regardless of the tier an area is in.
  
  
• Crucially, decisions about which areas are placed into which tiers will be made by central Government. Ministers hope to avoid the stand-offs and wrangling seen earlier this year when Greater Manchester council refused to accept Tier 3 status (see video below).
• Ministers will wait until the end of the week to announce the placing of different areas into tiers, with assessment linked to the latest infections data.

There is nothing specific about the hospitality sector, but given the statement above about gyms and leisure facilities, it may be that pubs in Tier 3 are allowed to serve alcohol without meals, provided that they observe all the other protocols about households meeting and distancing. The reason I say this is that there was not a big spike of cases when pubs re-opened in July, and that was without compulsory track & trace, masks and the 10pm closing time. The government will also want to avoid people travelling from an area where places are closed to one where they are open. However, this is all speculation, and we shall just have to wait and see.

Thank you for posting this, it is quite a source of frustration that these hints are usually hidden behind a paywall!

If that line about gyms is true that would be a nice Christmas present (not withstanding that most of this is nonsense, but still)

 

[Mag_seven]

But the Prime Minister will say that the strength of the restrictions for the rest of next month will depend on how well the public complies with the current lockdown, which expires on December 2"

I'm getting fed up with this "behave yourselves people or you won't be allowed to celebrate Christmas or whatever" narrative.

I'm fed up with being treated like a child who can't be trusted assess the risks for myself.

 

[DB]

I'm getting fed up with this "behave yourselves people or you won't be allowed to celebrate Christmas or whatever" narrative.

I'm fed up with being treated like a child who can't be trusted assess the risks for myself.

Yes, quite.

And I am increasingly getting the impression that more and more people are ignoring his threats and trying to carry on as normally as possible.

 

[35B]

I'm getting fed up with this "behave yourselves people or you won't be allowed to celebrate Christmas or whatever" narrative.

I'm fed up with being treated like a child who can't be trusted assess the risks for myself.

There's a problem with that though - my risk, or your risk, is low. But if the population at large disregard the principles behind control of the epidemic, the effect will be magnified as the numbers of people ill rise beyond the ability of the health system to cope with them.

The recent announcements in Northern Ireland show where that can lead.

 

[DB]

There's a problem with that though - my risk, or your risk, is low. But if the population at large disregard the principles behind control of the epidemic, the effect will be magnified as the numbers of people ill rise beyond the ability of the health system to cope with them.

The recent announcements in Northern Ireland show where that can lead.

Put more effort into protecting those particularly at risk then, so far as is possible. It is well known exactly who they are. Treating the whole of society like naughty children is not the answer.

And the NHS is nowhere near being overwhelmed anyway. The figures show that, and I had a letter from them this week inviting me to book a health check which they apparently offer everyone over 40, once every five years. If they had any capacity issues, things like this would be the first to be put on hold, but clearly haven't been.

 

[Peter Sarf]

I have noticed a few times it being said that 1 days relaxation of lockdown has to be paid for by five days lock down. I can believe it even though it seems very grim. In summer that would not have applied (longer and warmer days). That leads me to the slightly optimistic conclusion that the powers that be will keep a lockdown (or tiers if we are lucky) going until a few days before Christmas. Then everyone is let loose until just after new years eve. Then the BIG hangover begins with a long lockdown until the weather gets warmer and the days longer.

I really hope we get some freedom for the shortest days of the year !.

As for going out for a drink. I have drunk so little for the last 9 months that I will probably be so unused to alcohol that I will be comatose hours before the clocks chime in the new year .

 

[DB]

I have noticed a few times it being said that 1 days relaxation of lockdown has to be paid for by five days lock down. I can believe it even though it seems very grim. In summer that would not have applied (longer and warmer days). That leads me to the slightly optimistic conclusion that the powers that be will keep a lockdown (or tiers if we are lucky) going until a few days before Christmas. Then everyone is let loose until just after new years eve. Then the BIG hangover begins with a long lockdown until the weather gets warmer and the days longer.

I really hope we get some freedom for the shortest days of the year !.

As for going out for a drink. I have drunk so little for the last 9 months that I will probably be so unused to alcohol that I will be comatose hours before the clocks chime in the new year .

Sounds like you are fully bought into this dystopian situation.

We should not be expected ti 'pay' (i.e. be punished) for trying to behave normally.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

I'm getting fed up with this "behave yourselves people or you won't be allowed to celebrate Christmas or whatever" narrative.

I'm fed up with being treated like a child who can't be trusted assess the risks for myself.

I find it very difficult to take notice of instructions from people who clearly cannot behave themselves, nor do they take management responsibility for their 'staff' who ignore the rules.

If the rules are as essential as it is suggested, a new mouthpiece is essential.

 

[island]

Probably tell us Christmas trees spread Covid next...

They had to pass another regulation (SI 2020/1326) a day or two ago to allow Christmas trees to be sold, because as it stood they were caught by the closure of "non-essential" retail.

 

[Mojo]

They had to pass another regulation (SI 2020/1326) a day or two ago to allow Christmas trees to be sold, because as it stood they were caught by the closure of "non-essential" retail.

Very good

I note a message from Ikea's in the week announcing that they will be selling their famous Christmas trees this year but only if you pre-order on the website because of regulatory reasons (obviously this was before the regulations you mention were published).

 

[kez19]

They had to pass another regulation (SI 2020/1326) a day or two ago to allow Christmas trees to be sold, because as it stood they were caught by the closure of "non-essential" retail.

I think it further proves a point the minds behind the madness.

 

[Darandio]

the effect will be magnified as the numbers of people ill rise beyond the ability of the health system to cope with them.

But they told us we were at that point nearly three weeks ago, it was one of the reasons why they called an immediate press conference to tell us we needed to have another lockdown. Not that we needed a lockdown to prevent us getting to that point, we were already there.

Anyone looking at the data could see we weren't, it was nowhere near and it never got anywhere near over the following two weeks before the current restrictions would have their effect. It was lies and false data.

 

[35B]

But they told us we were at that point nearly three weeks ago, it was one of the reasons why they called an immediate press conference to tell us we needed to have another lockdown. Not that we needed a lockdown to prevent us getting to that point, we were already there.

Anyone looking at the data could see we weren't, it was nowhere near and it never got anywhere near over the following two weeks before the current restrictions would have their effect. It was lies and false data.

Really? So the continued increases that have been seen are a figment of the imagination, and likewise the restrictions imposed in a number of countries are wholly unnecessary?

If this virus is contagious - which it is - and people are meeting in circumstances where they can transmit it - which will happen at a "normal" Christmas - then the only question is of how many more people will be infected with Covid than if we didn't have a "normal" Christmas. Hell's teeth, even Sweden is putting restrictions in place and pressing people to limit contact right now.

 

[bramling]

Really? So the continued increases that have been seen are a figment of the imagination, and likewise the restrictions imposed in a number of countries are wholly unnecessary?

If this virus is contagious - which it is - and people are meeting in circumstances where they can transmit it - which will happen at a "normal" Christmas - then the only question is of how many more people will be infected with Covid than if we didn't have a "normal" Christmas. Hell's teeth, even Sweden is putting restrictions in place and pressing people to limit contact right now.

Which makes a mockery of the whole thing. If it’s so bad then there’s no way a break should be taken for Christmas. Of course in reality they know people are going to do their own thing regardless, so this is more an exercise in BJ and Matt not losing face.

The best thing they could probably do is try to keep things like new year toned down, so that we don’t see the usual mass brawl.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Really? So the continued increases that have been seen are a figment of the imagination, and likewise the restrictions imposed in a number of countries are wholly unnecessary?

If this virus is contagious - which it is - and people are meeting in circumstances where they can transmit it - which will happen at a "normal" Christmas - then the only question is of how many more people will be infected with Covid than if we didn't have a "normal" Christmas. Hell's teeth, even Sweden is putting restrictions in place and pressing people to limit contact right now.

Seventeen days after lockdown 1 the peak was reached and that looks like its happened this time although on this occasion we had the benefit of tier 2&3 as well. Furthermore levels of testing are now a factor of 100 higher than April and cases are reducing ie levels of postivity are dropping so they will achieve the conditions to release lockdown v2 and claim success is my view and Father "Boris" Christmas will be able to ride to the rescue of festivities so we end 2020 on some sort of a high and retailers can live to fight another day. Then half way into January the collateral damage from this will become evident and lockdown 3 will be imposed with the justification that Jan/Feb are slow times so the year anyhow so just buckle up folks and get on with it one more time as the vaccine coming over the hills.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

• While three tiers are expected to remain, each is likely to be bolstered, so that demands which previously applied to Tier 2 – such as a ban on household indoor mixing – may apply at the lowest level.
  
  
• Government sources said the new system would be more "consistent", with clear rules attached to each tier. Some new elements will be introduced, with gyms and leisure facilities allowed to remain open in all parts of the country regardless of the tier an area is in.
  
  
• Crucially, decisions about which areas are placed into which tiers will be made by central Government. Ministers hope to avoid the stand-offs and wrangling seen earlier this year when Greater Manchester council refused to accept Tier 3 status (see video below).
• Ministers will wait until the end of the week to announce the placing of different areas into tiers, with assessment linked to the latest infections data.

In other words, having recently granted the powers to local authorities so that they rather than central Government would get blamed for any messes, they've now taken the powers back again because central Government got blamed for the mess anyway? Oh, and while they're at it, they've changed all the details of the "single consistent tier system" so everyone will have to learn it again from scratch and they'll only gradually reaslise they've effectively been tricked into being put in a higher level of restriction than before without it being explicitly stated up front?

 

[Peter Sarf]

Sounds like you are fully bought into this dystopian situation.

We should not be expected ti 'pay' (i.e. be punished) for trying to behave normally.

Try arguing that with the virus known as Covid-19.

I find it very difficult to take notice of instructions from people who clearly cannot behave themselves, nor do they take management responsibility for their 'staff' who ignore the rules.

If the rules are as essential as it is suggested, a new mouthpiece is essential.

Their poor example is costing lives and I will remember it come election time.

Seventeen days after lockdown 1 the peak was reached and that looks like its happened this time although on this occasion we had the benefit of tier 2&3 as well. Furthermore levels of testing are now a factor of 100 higher than April and cases are reducing ie levels of postivity are dropping so they will achieve the conditions to release lockdown v2 and claim success is my view and Father "Boris" Christmas will be able to ride to the rescue of festivities so we end 2020 on some sort of a high and retailers can live to fight another day. Then half way into January the collateral damage from this will become evident and lockdown 3 will be imposed with the justification that Jan/Feb are slow times so the year anyhow so just buckle up folks and get on with it one more time as the vaccine coming over the hills.

That seems to be the best we can hope for perhaps. I hold out hope for a lockdown free season or two as winter gets out of the way. Then it is up to vaccines to prove their worth and the general level of vulnerability in the human race to reduce to a level that is manageable without lockdowns - like flu has become.

In other words, having recently granted the powers to local authorities so that they rather than central Government would get blamed for any messes, they've now taken the powers back again because central Government got blamed for the mess anyway? Oh, and while they're at it, they've changed all the details of the "single consistent tier system" so everyone will have to learn it again from scratch and they'll only gradually reaslise they've effectively been tricked into being put in a higher level of restriction than before without it being explicitly stated up front?

I do wonder if the departure of Dominic Cummings, driven perhaps by the tide of inevitability, has resulted in the drawing back of powers to central government ?.

The new and improved tiers might, on closer examination, look remarkably like a lockdown unfortunately. The only one thing that will be true of the tiers is, that by definition, they have to be different to each other. So, since tier 1 will have to be less restrictive than tier 3, it follows that tier 1 has to be be less restrictive than a lockdown. That is unless tier 3 is more restrictive than the current lockdown .

OVERALL
We have to accept that the human race is made up of individuals. We did not get to the place we are now, as the dominant lifeform on the planet, by not "breaking the rules". But sometimes the need for certain rules becomes painfully obvious. Sometimes it is not so obvious - until too late. Covid-19 is a fact of life (umm death) but its threat is not necessarily obvious until it is too late. It is easy to ignore the risk of death (we do it all the time) but the biggest threat is one and all's access to healthcare. Result is draconian changes to our sense of freedom called a lockdown. Down with Covid-19 I say .

 

[DB]

Try arguing that with the virus known as Covid-19.

Viruses don't have the ability to engage in arguments - they just spread, as they have evolved to do.

The point is that many of these restrictions (masks, etc) have no evidence for any benefit at all, and the others are at most slowing down the spread a bit. To what purpose? The NHS is not being overwhelmed, despite government claims, and the front-runner for the vaccine is at best going to reduce the symptoms a bit.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Viruses don't have the ability to engage in arguments - they just spread, as they have evolved to do.

The point is that many of these restrictions (masks, etc) have no evidence for any benefit at all, and the others are at most slowing down the spread a bit. To what purpose? The NHS is not being overwhelmed, despite government claims, and the front-runner for the vaccine is at best going to reduce the symptoms a bit.

That is why we have to react and not get indignant.

I believe the NHS was overwhelmed and will be again this winter. I am aware that there is an increase in out-patient work and lesser procedures being done in private hospitals. My partners private hospital is apparently busier than normal. That might be purely due to the backlog from the last spike/surge. But I think it is also due to the need to free up as much capacity as possible in the NHS hospitals that have intensive care facilities ready for the coming winter.