Long Term Ownership of an Electric Car

[bspahh]

Does anyone have any views on which electric cars have been engineered for a long life?

At the moment I have a diesel Mondeo. I paid £8500 for it from a Ford dealer, when it was 2 years 9 months old when it had done 56k miles. I've done 17k miles a year for 7 years, so its now at 175k miles.

If I had to replace it now, I would probably want an electric car, and to get one with a reasonable range. Having been used to a 750 mile range, I think I'll need at least 200 miles.

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That deal is to lease a Kia Niro 2. The headline rate is £263 a month over 24 months, with an up front payment of £2,365 with an allowance of 5000 miles a year. After 2 years, you hand the car back, hopefully with no payments. You will have paid £8,677 for 10000 miles, or 87p/mile.

You can adjust the settings to get other quotes. For example you could pay £312 for 48 months with a £3,745 up front payment and get 15000 miles, to pay a total of £18,721 at 31p/mile.

The list price is £34,890, with a £2,500 government grant, if you paid £2,390 as a deposit, borrowed £30,000 at 5.7% APR for 4 years, you would pay £700 a month, including £3,620 in interest. That comes to 60p/mile. You then own the car at the end.

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I realise I'm going to have to pay more, but I'm not enthused with paying more for 10000 miles than I did to buy my Mondeo outright.

In general I aim to keep running cars until they get scrapped.


I thought the Mondeo was a big, heavy car at 1456kg. However, a Hyundai Ionic 5 is 1900kg. Not only does it not come with a spare wheel and tyre, its not even supposed to be jacked up unless you use a workshop lift.

In the past, you could probably get by with using an old model of a car that had been forgotten by the manufacturer. However, an electric car will need ongoing support from the manufacturer to keep the software up to date. This will be to manage the wear and tear on the battery, how the car works with updated chargers, as well as security fixes. I don't see anything about manufacturers publishing the source code for the management software. When they decide to stop maintaining it, I daresay you will still be able to charge it at home, but you might find that public chargers will no longer work.

Kia and Hyundai have fairly long warranties. Free updates are all very well, but it means that you are relying on the goodwill from the manufacturer. I guess dealer servicing is a way to subscribe to keep getting updates, but I would like to see a commitment from a manufacturer for how long they will maintain and support the software for their cars.

For example, a breakdown lorry driver mentioned that he had picked up an electric car, where the battery had run flat, and the car was locked shut, with no mechanical override for the door locks. That sounds like a load of hassle in store for owners of that model once they get older.

Can weak cells in a battery get replaced, or does the whole battery need to be refurbished as a whole?

 

[jon0844]

A friend has leased a E-Niro (not sure the exact spec) for £230 a month, and that includes servicing. He's very happy and although that was a special offer, I think there are many deals to be had.

I intend to buy an EV but do very little mileage so the break even point is too high (like diesel cars used to be) and have leased a small car that's £140 a month (over 4 years) - the first car I've ever leased (and I'm very impressed so far).

Once that goes back, I hope an EV will be around the same sort of price range (£140-150/m) and may consider buying one. By then we'll have improved on the battery and charging tech, and economy of scale should have seen price cuts to the point that an ICE car will NOT be favourable under any circumstances.

As for the batteries; there are many firms now getting established that can service batteries rather than just replace them - but as the tech improves, you should find the batteries last a lot longer than they're warrantied for. Those that do see a drop in performance will then be ripe for taking to a specialist to recondition. Yes, that might cost a bit but consider the existing costs for maintaining an ICE car (many costs that can vary an awful lot). By comparison, an EV is a lot more simple and besides the usual wear and tear items, the batteries are pretty much the only major expense and an expense that is going to be pretty well known.

 

[bspahh]

As for the batteries; there are many firms now getting established that can service batteries rather than just replace them - but as the tech improves, you should find the batteries last a lot longer than they're warrantied for. Those that do see a drop in performance will then be ripe for taking to a specialist to recondition. Yes, that might cost a bit but consider the existing costs for maintaining an ICE car (many costs that can vary an awful lot). By comparison, an EV is a lot more simple and besides the usual wear and tear items, the batteries are pretty much the only major expense and an expense that is going to be pretty well known.

I think it will be like a mobile phone, where some manufacturers will follow Apple's lead and force you to use the official batteries. At the low end, there will be manufacturers that go bust, and then you need to hope that enough cars were sold for aftermarket suppliers to be interesting in taking over the supply. An electric car might be simple mechanically, there are manufacturers (yes you Citroen) who have a history of finding complex solutions to simple problems.

 

[Bald Rick]

Can weak cells in a battery get replaced, or does the whole battery need to be refurbished as a whole?

Depends on the manufacturer of the car. Tesla certainly replace cells (albeit rarely, and usually only on high mileage models) and some of their cars have lifetime guarantees on the batteries.

 

[NoRoute]

I realise I'm going to have to pay more, but I'm not enthused with paying more for 10000 miles than I did to buy my Mondeo outright.

In general I aim to keep running cars until they get scrapped.

I don't think the economical model of buying a good used car, 2 to 3 years old at a hefty discount works for EVs yet because there aren't enough used EVs coming through. Go back 3 years and most of the EVs being sold had shorter ranges and were selling in low quantities, many of the long range models started ramping up sales from 2019 onward, so it will be another year or two until these start appearing in the used market in any quantity. Plus at the moment, all used cars are selling at a hefty premium because of manufacturing shortages.

Go back to around 2018 and there were more PHEVs being sold than EVs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't think the economical model of buying a good used car, 2 to 3 years old at a hefty discount works for EVs yet because there aren't enough used EVs coming through. Go back 3 years and most of the EVs being sold had shorter ranges and were selling in low quantities, many of the long range models started ramping up sales from 2019 onward, so it will be another year or two until these start appearing in the used market in any quantity. Plus at the moment, all used cars are selling at a hefty premium because of manufacturing shortages.

The only EV that has been around in sufficient quantities for long enough for this to happen is the Nissan Leaf, so looking at the market for those should give an idea of how it might look in 5-10 years' time.

 

[jon0844]

The Leaf had a number of issues regarding battery longevity due to poor thermal management, but even then it seems people are still surprised how good the batteries have held up. There are clearly some bargains to be had, if you can put up with its (subjectively) interesting look.

Fortunately, the tech has improved a lot in the last few years. In the next year or so there are likely going to be a lot of cars off-lease and available for very good prices, and with plenty of life left in them.

For people like me that won't be doing high mileage, the batteries are going to be just fine.

Plus, a lot of EVs have a very high-spec compared to the sort of ICE cars people may compare against. Proper climate control, adaptive cruise, Android Auto/Apple Car Play and so on. There are still plenty of cars on sale with almost no creature comforts.

 

[bspahh]

The leasing companies are generally pretty good at predicting the future value of cars (barring things like effects of covid and the silicon chip shortage this year).
The Fleet News Running Cost Calculator predicts the future value of new cars in a few years time. It uses the P11D list prices, when some manufacturers will offer significant discounts. I'm not sure if the effects of these discounts are included in the "total cost". If instead you look at leasing costs, then it will include a discount in the overall cost, which might help to prioritise different models even if you don't end up with a lease.

For 3 years and 30k miles if I take the cheapest Electric/Petrol/Diesel/Hybrid to own, I find it interesting that the cheapest in overall cost per mile "Large family car" is the most expensive to buy.

Model           Type     Total Cost  Fuel   Depreciation  Service P11D price Future value   Details
Hyundai IONIQ 5 Electric 60.38ppm   4.48ppm   53.75ppm     2.2ppm   £36,940  £20,816 56.4%  Hatch 5Dr 0.0Electric 58kWh 170 SE Connect Auto 22MY
Skoda Superb    Petrol   61.74ppm  12.85ppm   46.07ppm     2.8ppm   £26,025  £12,205 46.9%  Hatch 5Dr 1.5TSI ACT 150 GPF SS €6 SE Technology 6Spd 21.25MY
Ford Mondeo     Diesel   63.63ppm  10.86ppm   49.53ppm     3.2ppm   £25,335  £10,477 41.4%  Hatch 5Dr 2.0 EcoBlu 150 SS Zetec Edition 6Spd 21.75MY
Toyota Camry    Hybrid   68.47ppm  11.35ppm   53.81ppm     3.3ppm   £32,680  £15,892 48.6%  Saloon 2.5VVT-h 218 SS €6 Design CVT Auto 21MY

This is for "small family cars"

Model           Type     Total Cost  Fuel    Depreciation  Service P11D price Future value   Details
Toyota Prius    Hybrid    46.62ppm   9.00ppm   35.40ppm     2.2ppm   £24,695  £14,076 57.0%  Hatch 5Dr 1.8VVT-h 122 SS Active CVT 20MY £24,695 46.62p
Skoda Scala     Petrol    48.73ppm  11.35ppm   34.35ppm     3.0ppm   £17,035   £6,729 39.5%  Hatch 5Dr 1.0TSI 95 GPF SS €6 S 21.25
Volkswagen ID.3 Electric  48.87ppm   4.04ppm   42.09ppm     2.7ppm   £29,580  £16,953 57.3%  Hatch 5Dr 0.0Electric Pure Performance 45kWh 150 Life Auto 22MY
Vauxhall Astra  Diesel    51.13ppm   9.56ppm   39.04ppm     2.5ppm   £19,985   £8,273 41.4%  Hatch 5Dr 1.5 Turbo D 122 DPFR SS €6 Griffin Edition 6Spd 21.75MY £19,985 51.13p

(these are all quite different cars to own, but the electric cars get you the most environmental brownie points)

 

[Bald Rick]

Fortunately, the tech has improved a lot in the last few years. In the next year or so there are likely going to be a lot of cars off-lease and available for very good prices, and with plenty of life left in them.

I do wonder if EVs will change the lease duration somewhat. Most people start trading in after 3-4 years, partly because that’s when things start to go wrong on some cars; but there’s less to go wrong on EVs. I wonder if this will push typical lease periods out a little.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The Leaf had a number of issues regarding battery longevity due to poor thermal management, but even then it seems people are still surprised how good the batteries have held up. There are clearly some bargains to be had, if you can put up with its (subjectively) interesting look.

In essence the Leaf has reached "second-car runaround" territory - others will in due course.

 

[bspahh]

I do wonder if EVs will change the lease duration somewhat. Most people start trading in after 3-4 years, partly because that’s when things start to go wrong on some cars; but there’s less to go wrong on EVs. I wonder if this will push typical lease periods out a little.

Perhaps yes in the long term. However, there is still quite rapid progress in electric cars. If you commit to a long lease today, it locks you into today's hardware. Some people will want the flexibility to switch after a few years, perhaps if they pick a car which doesn't support the chargers that end up as the best for speed/cost/convenience.

 

[jon0844]

I'm banking on some big improvements in battery and charging tech within the next 46 months (two months in to my 4 year lease!). I actually think we'll see some big changes quicker than that.

 

[JohnMcL7]

I do wonder if EVs will change the lease duration somewhat. Most people start trading in after 3-4 years, partly because that’s when things start to go wrong on some cars; but there’s less to go wrong on EVs. I wonder if this will push typical lease periods out a little.

I don't think people change at three to four years due to reliability but because they want something newer, there's plenty cars with longer warranties already and having mostly owned cars from 3-4 years onwards there's been barely anything wrong with them. The main parts have been wear and tear ones such as tyres and brakes which electric cars also need.

Engines these days are generally extremely reliable and it's often the electronics that let them down and electric cars again are also vulnerable to those, a friend's Tesla has had three trips back to the dealer in its first year alone whereas I haven't had any cars that have needed that once even at much older ages. It's a more extreme example and I'm not saying it's typical of electric cars but there's still plenty to go wrong with them. I was amused reading an article by a journalist whose Tesla while parked on its own told him it needed to go to the dealer and that was it, wouldn't even start which he pointed out even the most unreliable Alfa he'd driven over the years had managed better than that.

 

[trebor79]

Tesla build quality bisnt the best. 2 colleagues have them as company cars and both had to have work almost immediately for a variety of faults. I had a sweaty day riding around in my bosses with the aircon stuck at 23 degrees set point on a sunny day. Nice.
Shut lines still not wonderful on them.
Lots of quirks. Like the sat nav zooms out when approaching a junction, so all the detail disappears and you can't actually see which exit from the roundabout you need. Does the opposite of what it should.
Less said about the autopilot the better.

I wouldn't have one, even if I could afford one. Much better cars out there and some of them are giving Tesla a run for their money on range now too.

 

[david1212]

I do wonder if EVs will change the lease duration somewhat. Most people start trading in after 3-4 years, partly because that’s when things start to go wrong on some cars; but there’s less to go wrong on EVs. I wonder if this will push typical lease periods out a little.

I don't think people change at three to four years due to reliability but because they want something newer, there's plenty cars with longer warranties already and having mostly owned cars from 3-4 years onwards there's been barely anything wrong with them. The main parts have been wear and tear ones such as tyres and brakes which electric cars also need.

Engines these days are generally extremely reliable and it's often the electronics that let them down and electric cars again are also vulnerable to those, a friend's Tesla has had three trips back to the dealer in its first year alone whereas I haven't had any cars that have needed that once even at much older ages. It's a more extreme example and I'm not saying it's typical of electric cars but there's still plenty to go wrong with them. I was amused reading an article by a journalist whose Tesla while parked on its own told him it needed to go to the dealer and that was it, wouldn't even start which he pointed out even the most unreliable Alfa he'd driven over the years had managed better than that.

While things can start going wrong before 5 years another reason is the cost of routine maintenance due at 4 - 5 years and the choice to put the money into a newer car instead.

I paid for the work on my last car with a view of keeping until 10 years old although I changed just under 9 years, which as things turned out was well timed. My current car had an OTR price of £16,500 at January 2019. The production run was ending and relatively unpopular in the manufacturers range so probably deals to be had. Come December 2019 with 11,000 miles recorded I paid the franchised dealer £9,500. I sold my car to a local used trader rather than p/ex.

My usual annual mileage is 7,500 - 8,000 made up of 6,000 on commuting and local trips with the balance visiting friends & relatives, days out and annual holiday. However the current mileage of the car is only approaching 19,000 due to Covid resulting in much less leisure travel and furlough from work.

In two years time I have to make a choice
Option 1
Pay out £400+ for cambelt replacement, ~£150 for 2 year breakdown & recovery as much less than 2 x 1 year, £500 for 4 tyres, regular service £200 and MOT £50. Then keep the car 4 - 5 years.

Option 2
Put £1250+ towards another car.

I hope within 3 years to retire. Overall my annual mileage should fall but be mostly longer journeys for days out, short breaks and holidays. Given this I would choose a different car to be in for individual longer journeys. I will have some funds from my pension lump sum. However I certainly will not pay out ~£30,000 for a new EV. The price of a 1 - 2 year old EV and the realistic lifespan are unknowns.

At 10 years old / 60,000 miles my current car ought still to be very useable even if only worth £500. Hence an average capital cost of £1,000 per year.

If a 2 year old EV was £20,000 then effectively worthless at 10 years old because the batteries are life expired so unusable that is an average capital cost of £2,500 per year, which is way above my retirement budgeting. Even if maintenance is less that will only offset a small proportion of the much higher capital cost.

In terms of fuel the actual energy cost per mile for petrol / diesel and standard domestic rate electricity is similar. The total cost difference is because ~60% of the pump price for petrol & diesel is duty & VAT. As the number of EV's on the road increase the government can not afford the income loss so will recoup it in some way, most likely road pricing.

I do not know anyone with a pure EV and just one person with a hybrid which is a Toyota Yaris.

 

[reddragon]

Does anyone have any views on which electric cars have been engineered for a long life?

At the moment I have a diesel Mondeo. I paid £8500 for it from a Ford dealer, when it was 2 years 9 months old when it had done 56k miles. I've done 17k miles a year for 7 years, so its now at 175k miles.

If I had to replace it now, I would probably want an electric car, and to get one with a reasonable range. Having been used to a 750 mile range, I think I'll need at least 200 miles.

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I realise I'm going to have to pay more, but I'm not enthused with paying more for 10000 miles than I did to buy my Mondeo outright.

In general I aim to keep running cars until they get scrapped.


I thought the Mondeo was a big, heavy car at 1456kg. However, a Hyundai Ionic 5 is 1900kg. Not only does it not come with a spare wheel and tyre, its not even supposed to be jacked up unless you use a workshop lift.

In the past, you could probably get by with using an old model of a car that had been forgotten by the manufacturer. However, an electric car will need ongoing support from the manufacturer to keep the software up to date. This will be to manage the wear and tear on the battery, how the car works with updated chargers, as well as security fixes. I don't see anything about manufacturers publishing the source code for the management software. When they decide to stop maintaining it, I daresay you will still be able to charge it at home, but you might find that public chargers will no longer work.

Kia and Hyundai have fairly long warranties. Free updates are all very well, but it means that you are relying on the goodwill from the manufacturer. I guess dealer servicing is a way to subscribe to keep getting updates, but I would like to see a commitment from a manufacturer for how long they will maintain and support the software for their cars.

For example, a breakdown lorry driver mentioned that he had picked up an electric car, where the battery had run flat, and the car was locked shut, with no mechanical override for the door locks. That sounds like a load of hassle in store for owners of that model once they get older.

Can weak cells in a battery get replaced, or does the whole battery need to be refurbished as a whole?

I am going to work through here and answer most of the questions.

I would start by forgetting about the risk of battery failures, you are 100x more likely to have a fatal engine failure. There are 3 types of battery grouping: -

1 - early designed batteries. The Nissan LEAF dominates this block. The issue is that they have air cooled batteries and basic BMS (battery management system). These batteries degrade at a higher rate in particular on long trips with multi-rapid charging. The car itself is solid & reliable with the usual scatter of problems. On the flip side the LEAF is a solid long term performer with a taxi company in St Austell running them over 250k miles trouble free. They also have the particular benefit that you can but an early one with a 24kw battery degraded to 65% of capacity and swap in a 40kw battery from the current model in 4 hours! Cleevely Motors do this all the time and have videos on it, so have the Fully Charged Show. If you want a local runabout, a LEAF is excellent up to 300 miles on a 40kw version a day.

2 - Standard Lithium Batteries are fitted to most EVs. They have a 25 year life split between a car then grid storage. They are unlikely to fail in this time, just store less energy hence less range

3 - Million mile batteries - These LFP batteries are made by CATL or BYD in China and will last an incredible amount of time. Designed for buses, as storage for the life of a building / system etc they will outlast you and your kids and maybe grandkids! They are fitted to China built Tesla M3 & Model Y standard range; MG5 & MG ZS standard range plus the new BYD models coming our way. Mote the MG5 is an estate

There are already IT geeks cracking codes & modifying software on cars. The key has been interface modules. Much of it is open source with no security if you plug in.

If you drive an EV until it dies, then run it until the 12V battery dies you have an issue. They all by law have a mechanical key to get in / out. If you drive an ICE until it runs dry, clogging up the injectors and then leave the lights on until the battery goes flat, guess what, the same happens!

Battery cells are easy to replace in current cars as a simple module switch out, but some future ones with structural batteries that isn't possible. The BMS simply bypasses them and manages the battery so not too much of an issue.

I think it will be like a mobile phone, where some manufacturers will follow Apple's lead and force you to use the official batteries. At the low end, there will be manufacturers that go bust, and then you need to hope that enough cars were sold for aftermarket suppliers to be interesting in taking over the supply. An electric car might be simple mechanically, there are manufacturers (yes you Citroen) who have a history of finding complex solutions to simple problems.

Most manufacturers use Chinese / Korean made battery cells from a few suppliers and put them in a standard platform used by multiple manufacturers/ Citroen use the PSA platform leaving no room for complications beyond the body fit out!

I do wonder if EVs will change the lease duration somewhat. Most people start trading in after 3-4 years, partly because that’s when things start to go wrong on some cars; but there’s less to go wrong on EVs. I wonder if this will push typical lease periods out a little.

It is true that EVs last trouble free for much of their life. The driver for me going to my 3rd EV is range and tech advances, that's it. I have no worries at all about maintenance. Once legacy models of 3-4 year leases fades, much longer leases will appear or maybe hybrid leases where the lease is split in 2 parts, as the current 3-4 year lease then a secondary lease at a lower rate until its yours.

Tesla build quality bisnt the best. 2 colleagues have them as company cars and both had to have work almost immediately for a variety of faults. I had a sweaty day riding around in my bosses with the aircon stuck at 23 degrees set point on a sunny day. Nice.
Shut lines still not wonderful on them.
Lots of quirks. Like the sat nav zooms out when approaching a junction, so all the detail disappears and you can't actually see which exit from the roundabout you need. Does the opposite of what it should.
Less said about the autopilot the better.

I wouldn't have one, even if I could afford one. Much better cars out there and some of them are giving Tesla a run for their money on range now too.

Apparently the China made ones don't have that problem!

If a 2 year old EV was £20,000 then effectively worthless at 10 years old because the batteries are life expired so unusable that is an average capital cost of £2,500 per year, which is way above my retirement budgeting. Even if maintenance is less that will only offset a small proportion of the much higher capital cost.

In terms of fuel the actual energy cost per mile for petrol / diesel and standard domestic rate electricity is similar. The total cost difference is because ~60% of the pump price for petrol & diesel is duty & VAT. As the number of EV's on the road increase the government can not afford the income loss so will recoup it in some way, most likely road pricing.

I do not know anyone with a pure EV and just one person with a hybrid which is a Toyota Yaris.

Apparently just 4 Nissan LEAFs suffered total battery loos and they were based in Nevada and heat killed them. If you write off an EV, you still have £10-£20k of battery you can sell.

Fuel currently costs 50p/litre before tax, so 5p/unit the same as night rate electric. An EV is 3x as efficient as an ICE so it costs a third to drive on that untaxed basis.

My EV costs me 1.25p/mile on energy. Road pricing will be added to ALL road vehicles on top of current taxes.

 

[bspahh]

There are already IT geeks cracking codes & modifying software on cars. The key has been interface modules. Much of it is open source with no security if you plug in.

I would much prefer a manufacturer to have an official statement on the license for their code.

There might not be any security at the moment, but I want to be sure that I can use a public fast charger in 10 years time, and not have them block my car because it doesn't have the manufacturer's officially signed firmware.

Battery cells are easy to replace in current cars as a simple module switch out, but some future ones with structural batteries that isn't possible. The BMS simply bypasses them and manages the battery so not too much of an issue.


Most manufacturers use Chinese / Korean made battery cells from a few suppliers and put them in a standard platform used by multiple manufacturers/ Citroen use the PSA platform leaving no room for complications beyond the body fit out!

A car might use standard cells, but I want to be sure that they can be replaced in the future. Are the battery packs easily accessible? Are the cells in the battery pack glued in place?

Will the BMS only work with cells that have been certified, in the same way that some inkjet printers force you to use branded cartridges? They might not do that at the moment, but its something that could be turned on with a firmware upgrade.

I want to buy a car from a company that makes a profit, because I want the manufacturer to be around to keep supporting it. Free and Open Source Software is useful for long term support, but its also good to have professional software engineers, to write the code properly in the first place.

 

[reddragon]

I would much prefer a manufacturer to have an official statement on the license for their code.

There might not be any security at the moment, but I want to be sure that I can use a public fast charger in 10 years time, and not have them block my car because it doesn't have the manufacturer's officially signed firmware.



A car might use standard cells, but I want to be sure that they can be replaced in the future. Are the battery packs easily accessible? Are the cells in the battery pack glued in place?

Will the BMS only work with cells that have been certified, in the same way that some inkjet printers force you to use branded cartridges? They might not do that at the moment, but its something that could be turned on with a firmware upgrade.

I want to buy a car from a company that makes a profit, because I want the manufacturer to be around to keep supporting it. Free and Open Source Software is useful for long term support, but its also good to have professional software engineers, to write the code properly in the first place.

The basic battery management systems & charging systems are mostly standardised international formats, so charging shouldn't be an issue. There are plenty who do classic car conversions and add charging systems. The ability to adjust certain aspects or 'tune' the cars are quite simple. Getting beyond that is blocked by manufacturers code. Self drive is heavily encrypted. So yes, a simple electric car can be modded, but you can't play with infotainment, autonomy etc.

Battery packs are simply bolted underneath and plugged in. A like for like replacement is said to take 4 hours. The formats vary, but they are often in boxes within the pack and these can be changed, individual cells are not really changeable. Going forwards, integrated structural batteries will not have this flexibility.

You can mix any cells / BMS system and attach them to any car. When you replace a 24kw battery in an old LEAF with a 40kw pack you have a little box you put i the cable line to translate new battery to car systems. There are apps you can get with a plug to connect your cars to read them.

Making sure you manufacturer still exists or will support you is a complex one. Many legacy car makers will fold, so even big ones despite take overs & joining together will not keep them afloat. I'd be a liar if I told you who will survive the biggest shake up the industry has ever seen but look at warning signs.

In the USA only Tesla makes any money, GM is a money-pit and Ford is at least making a good go at it although very late start.
In Asia Kia & Hyundai stand out, but Japanese makes are in trouble with all of them contracting and loosing the pace. Toyota seems to be on a suicide mission at the moment!
In Europe we depend entirely on Chinese products to make cars, they will sooner or later cut out the middleman and buy these once proud names of these legacy companies as a front as they have already done with MG, Rover, Volvo, London Taxis etc. It's hard to say who will fold first as national subsidies might allow some to hold out longer.

China is about to totally dominate. All electronics & batteries are made & developed in China. Their cars are now better than ours and it's only a matter of style & taste that differentiates now.

I have gone for MG simple because they are cheap, the tech is ahead of Europe although the packaging is a bit behind and China will use that brand to front a UK factory at one of the sites they already own, just as Nissan / Toyota / Honda did.

 

[trebor79]

In the USA only Tesla makes any money,

China is about to totally dominate. All electronics & batteries are made & developed in China. Their cars are now better than ours and it's only a matter of style & taste that differentiates now.

I have gone for MG simple because they are cheap, the tech is ahead of Europe although the packaging is a bit behind and China will use that brand to front a UK factory at one of the sites they already own, just as Nissan / Toyota / Honda did.

Tesla only makes a profit because it is able to sell certificates to legacy manufacturers who have failed to sell their legally mandated quotas of zeronemission vehicles. That revenue is going to collapse very shortly.
Legacy manufacturers are rapidly catching Tesla up on range, and are ahead in terms of quality. The self drive thing is a pipe dream IMO, at least for another decade and I'm not certain what the actual utility of it is or will be.

I agree China is probably going get at least much market share as the Korean companies.
I don't think they'll open a UK factory. Indeed no vehicle assembly takes place at Longbridge and the site is steadily disappearing under new housing. I believe a small part is still extant, but is capable only if limited final assembly from kits. Even that hadn't been done for around 5 years now, so may well just be an empty building. The cabability to build complete cars from scratch disappeared shortly after MG Rover collapsed.
If a factory were to be opened in the UK, I think it would be at one of the new Freeport's.

 

[reddragon]

Tesla only makes a profit because it is able to sell certificates to legacy manufacturers who have failed to sell their legally mandated quotas of zeronemission vehicles. That revenue is going to collapse very shortly.
Legacy manufacturers are rapidly catching Tesla up on range, and are ahead in terms of quality. The self drive thing is a pipe dream IMO, at least for another decade and I'm not certain what the actual utility of it is or will be.

I agree China is probably going get at least much market share as the Korean companies.
I don't think they'll open a UK factory. Indeed no vehicle assembly takes place at Longbridge and the site is steadily disappearing under new housing. I believe a small part is still extant, but is capable only if limited final assembly from kits. Even that hadn't been done for around 5 years now, so may well just be an empty building. The cabability to build complete cars from scratch disappeared shortly after MG Rover collapsed.
If a factory were to be opened in the UK, I think it would be at one of the new Freeport's.

You underestimate Tesla by a long way and clearly like 99% of people don't understand their clever business model that investors have finally caught on about which is why the company value is sky rocketing! That credit revenue isn't going to collapse anytime soon because some daft manufacturers are well behind the curve and the target goes up every year.

Analysts say Tesla had a 5 year lead on the rest of the pack and it is still growing, their China made models exceed German standards and they are soon to open a Berlin factory. Today they dominate EV sales outside of China and in China they are taking market share. Their fans love the tech & performance, are annoyed about the niggles but will not switch. The reliability scores maybe low but those same owners have the highest satisfaction rating of any manufacturer.

Self driving is coming like it or not. How long & where remains the question. 20 years ago the question was why do we need smartphone, 30 is was why do we need mobile phones or the internet.

China has scale with a population 10x that or Korea & Japan combined and all the natural resources needed. You cannot beat that.

A Chinese company will build factories in Europe for trade / tax reasons. MG, BYD or Xpeng will be financially encouraged to do so to protect some kind of manufacturing here.

 

[skyhigh]

If a 2 year old EV was £20,000 then effectively worthless at 10 years old because the batteries are life expired

You're not going to have an expired battery at 10 years - an EV battery is nothing like a phone battery. Time has no noticeable ill effect on capacity or durability. I saw a post on Facebook the other day where a Tesla owner had hit 300,000 miles and his car was still going strong, with the only work done on it being routine servicing (it kept the original brake pads for 220,000 miles.....)

 

[Bletchleyite]

You're not going to have an expired battery at 10 years - an EV battery is nothing like a phone battery. Time has no noticeable ill effect on capacity or durability. I saw a post on Facebook the other day where a Tesla owner had hit 300,000 miles and his car was still going strong, with the only work done on it being routine servicing (it kept the original brake pads for 220,000 miles.....)

The key difference is that because a phone has to be small and can't have a fan it is very difficult to do any kind of thermal management. Even laptops can't do much more than a CPU fan. Whereas a car has plenty of options for this.

 

[reddragon]

You're not going to have an expired battery at 10 years - an EV battery is nothing like a phone battery. Time has no noticeable ill effect on capacity or durability. I saw a post on Facebook the other day where a Tesla owner had hit 300,000 miles and his car was still going strong, with the only work done on it being routine servicing (it kept the original brake pads for 220,000 miles.....)

There's a Tesla that has exceeded 1 million kms in Europe too with little work and in the US there's a fleet of Tesla hire cars that do intercity runs on 250k miles a year that get tyres & checks only with very little maintenance.

C&C Taxis in St Austell, the first in the UK to go EV hold many records with Nissan LEAFs. They also have the ENV200, a Tesla and are getting MG5s

 

[trebor79]

You underestimate Tesla by a long way and clearly like 99% of people don't understand their clever business model that investors have finally caught on about which is why the company value is sky rocketing! That credit revenue isn't going to collapse anytime soon because some daft manufacturers are well behind the curve and the target goes up every year.

25% of new car registrations in the UK are now fully electric and take-up is accelerating. We're probably not more than 24 months away from cost-parity with ICE cars. Cheaper brands are matching Tesla for performance in the areas that matter (range, battery life and useful acceleration - 0-60 in 2.3 seconds might be fun, but most people aren't going to pay a whacking premium for things like that and virtual whoppee cushions on the seats).
I don't think it's going to take anything like as long as some Tesla investors think for that revenue to evaporate. Then Tesla is just another premium car company and it is absolutely trounced in terms of quality by the traditional premium car manufacturers, and the established budget manufacturers are now also giving them a run for their money. The Model 3 already looks dated, there are much more modern looking cars with very similar performance available for a lot less money.
This pincer on their market share is only going to squeeze tighter as the rest of the industry shifts to electric. Tesla have had is easy for a decade, and are going to have to compete on different terms just as their green credit revenue starts to disappear.
It's going to be interesting to watch anyway!

Analysts say Tesla had a 5 year lead on the rest of the pack and it is still growing, their China made models exceed German standards and they are soon to open a Berlin factory. Today they dominate EV sales outside of China and in China they are taking market share. Their fans love the tech & performance, are annoyed about the niggles but will not switch. The reliability scores maybe low but those same owners have the highest satisfaction rating of any manufacturer.

But they've only dominated because until very recently if you wanted a practical EV, they were pretty much the only choice. I mean 5 years ago it was Tesla or offer absolute joke junk like the Ranault Twizy, Reva GeWhizz or a Leaf with a rubbish battery and short range. There's much more choice now, many of which are equally as practical in terms of range and charging as Tesla whilst being much cheaper and that choice is expanding every month.
Same with satisfaction. A lot of that will have been based upon enjoying the electric driving experience and overlooking the niggles. As the electric experience becomes the norm, people will pay more attention to the niggles and realise it's not good enough. I'm sure satisfaction was very high amongst purchasers of early motor cars, when everyone else was still using horses or donkeys but look how quickly the niggles and annoyances of the early motor cars were soon seen as unacceptable.

n, post: 5352981, member: 33843"]Self driving is coming like it or not. How long & where remains the question. 20 years ago the question was why do we need smartphone, 30 is was why do we need mobile phones or the internet.

Maybe, maybe nowt. I just don't think it's something that most people are particularly interest in. When you buy a Tesla you're buying a lot of kit, technology and software which may or may not fulfill it's purported function at some point in the future. If you're really flush you can pay an extra circa £5k for even more kit that doesn't yet do what it says on the tin, but might in the future.
Tesla are going to have to realise that a very large proportion of people will take the cheaper alternative than be forced to pay for all this tech that they currently cannot really use, and probably have no particular interest in using it. Again it all just adds up to having to pay a premium for the Tesla badge.
I'm not convinced it'll ever work properly on our country roads anyway. We tried it in my bosses Tesla and it was both interesting and terrifying at the same time with lots of "what the **** is it doing now?" moments.

 

[reddragon]

At the Fully Charged Show I tried out pretty much every EV that exists. For me in that segment the Ford Mustang stood out for practicability. Munro Associates say it's a dinosaur under the hood in tear down

Kia / Hyundai are the current real competition for Tesla but China are coming!

The legacy German makes were just bling

 

[trebor79]

Kia / Hyundai are the current real competition for Tesla but China are coming!

Agree. The Korean cars are stylish, decent spec, decent range, decent price. Chinese are/will be stylish, decent spec, decent range, very decent price.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Chinese are/will be stylish, decent spec, decent range, very decent price.

The MGs have a decent range and a decent price. I wouldn't say they satisfy the other two, they are a bit cheap-and-nasty, certainly the SUV. I did look but quickly decided I'd rather a Kia e-Niro by a long way.

 

[reddragon]

The MGs have a decent range and a decent price. I wouldn't say they satisfy the other two, they are a bit cheap-and-nasty, certainly the SUV. I did look but quickly decided I'd rather a Kia e-Niro by a long way.

Having driven all 3, I found the e-Niro good but a lot smaller than I expected. Allegedly the boot was the same size as my LEAF, but the whole car was a lot smaller. The MG ZS wallowed a lot and was a bit dated, but the new model addresses this. I liked & bought the MG5 due to space and how it drove. The infotainment is a tad slow but I'll just use android auto.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Having driven all 3, I found the e-Niro goo but a lot smaller than I expected. Allegedly the boot was the same size as my LEAF, but the whole car was a lot smaller. The MG ZS wallowed a lot and was a bit dated, but the new model addresses this. I liked & bought the MG5 due to space and how it drove. The infotainment is a tad slow but I'll just use android auto.

I guess you're going to need an e-Sportage to solve that, and I reckon it'll be along soon and every bit as good value as the e-Niro.

 

[reddragon]

I guess you're going to need an e-Sportage to solve that, and I reckon it'll be along soon and every bit as good value as the e-Niro.

My next car preference was the e-Niro, so I was so disappointed with the high price, long wait and tiny boot. The MG5 won in each of those categories.