Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[Bletchleyite]

I personally think the risk at most sporting fixtures have been grossly exaggerated. The vast majority of people will enter through a door close to their seat proceed straight to there seat and remain there until they leave meaning they only come into close contact with a very small number of people (and in most cases an even smaller number of households). Yes there will have to be long term restrictions on events such as music festivals where everyone is constantly pushing and shoving each other to get to the front but there is probably more risk to most from a family wedding than a football match. The only potential issue with sporting events was in the early stage where people travelling may have allowed the virus to spread to different parts of the country (and indirect impacts on resource utilisation), but even then the impacts could be mitigated by allowing only locals to attend games (which for most clubs outside of the big 4 will have only a limited impact).

I've seen a similar thing TBH, at a sporting type event with allocated seating you actually come within 2m of relatively few people during a visit to such a thing, potentially fewer than 10. The main issues are caused in people congregating (in pubs/bar areas and in queues to enter) at and before/after such events.

Standing events like gigs are a bit different, people are packed in far closer and move around a lot more, the whole event could probably be considered to be like a bar in that regard.

Though I do see a possibility for the reopening of some (particularly larger) pubs/bars if they move to the European model, i.e. spread things out a bit and only offer table service with the venue considered to be full if each party can't have their own table. Most probably to avoid arguments advance reservation would be necessary.

 

[Mat17]

As an aside, to add to my previous list of issues which will make it challenging to revert to normal timetables, there’s a few people at many place taking the opportunity to bring forward retirement. Again this will prove a problem with no training taking place as replacement could be some time away.

Well I'm one of those people with a pending guard's job waiting to commence training and as yet it's there but on hold until this scenario develops further, be that to some kind of new way of working, or resolves (which could be a few years down the line).

However, retiring staff aside, someone else raised the point about staff competencies expiring and not being able to kept up to date due to staffing level reductions or training being on hold. I guess this impacts in so many ways it's hard to know which way is right to go.

 

[bramling]

I've seen a similar thing TBH, at a sporting type event with allocated seating you actually come within 2m of relatively few people during a visit to such a thing, potentially fewer than 10. The main issues are caused in people congregating (in pubs/bar areas and in queues to enter) at and before/after such events.

Standing events like gigs are a bit different, people are packed in far closer and move around a lot more, the whole event could probably be considered to be like a bar in that regard.

Though I do see a possibility for the reopening of some (particularly larger) pubs/bars if they move to the European model, i.e. spread things out a bit and only offer table service with the venue considered to be full if each party can't have their own table. Most probably to avoid arguments advance reservation would be necessary.

I think the bigger problem with sports events and the like is, as you say, congregating before and after, and of course transport.

It would be quite possible to say that people may only travel by private car (albeit hundreds of cars converging on the same place all at once could cause problems), but then some people will moan about how unfair it is that those without cars are disadvantaged. Can’t win sometimes!

 

[Esker-pades]

Are there plenty of unused platforms too?

If you import a few from the 1960s.

 

[d9009alycidon]

How long does a service need to be withdrawn from a route before parliamentary powers are needed, for example the service from Glasgow Central to Cumbernauld has been withdrawn as part of the current measures, rendering Coatbridge Central station effectively closed, with no trains scheduled to serve the station, if these service withdrawals are extended, I would have thought that some process would have to be followed?

 

[Esker-pades]

How long does a service need to be withdrawn from a route before parliamentary powers are needed, for example the service from Glasgow Central to Cumbernauld has been withdrawn as part of the current measures, rendering Coatbridge Central station effectively closed, with no trains scheduled to serve the station, if these service withdrawals are extended, I would have thought that some process would have to be followed?

The government has suspended all franchise agreements for 6 months. If the lockdown measures go on for longer, this could be extended. That is the process that has been followed, and will most likely continue to be until we move towards 'normal' again.

 

[d9009alycidon]

Thanks

 

[Cardiff123]

Like has been suggested, long term social distancing in public life will be very difficult to implement. The obvious strategy to contain the virus once lockdown is lifted is rigorous and widespread testing of the general population. the 'test, trace and isolate' strategy has worked very well in South Korea, Australia and New Zealand to contain and limit the spread of the virus.

Long term social distancing will also be a nightmare to enforce. Once 'lockdown' is lifted, how will it be enforced in parks and public places? Will pubs, cinemas and theatres have to stay shut permanently as it's just as impossible to enforce there as it will be on public transport? And how will 'essential journeys' be policed once lockdown ends? For many people, travelling to see friends and family that they haven't seen for months will be 'essential' to them, even if government doesn't think do. I don't drive, so travelling to see my friends and family will be essential travel for me.

 

[Meerkat]

The contact tracing app will be very relevant to public transport.
However I have not seen any data suggesting how risky public transport is - do we even know for sure that asymptomatic people can transmit it at a probability relevant to public transport (as opposed to sharing a house)?

 

[ChrisC]

Long term social distancing will also be a nightmare to enforce. Once 'lockdown' is lifted, how will it be enforced in parks and public places? Will pubs, cinemas and theatres have to stay shut permanently as it's just as impossible to enforce there as it will be on public transport? And how will 'essential journeys' be policed once lockdown ends? For many people, travelling to see friends and family that they haven't seen for months will be 'essential' to them, even if government doesn't think do. I don't drive, so travelling to see my friends and family will be essential travel for me.

If it’s enforced for any longer than a few months it’s going to mean a complete change of lifestyle for so many people. I can’t see how the over 70’s can continue to isolate themselves from their family and friends beyond a few months and into next year, especially those who are very active. Whenever I travel, especially on XC services, there are always so many elderly people travelling from one end of the country to the other to stay with relatives. What about all the students who travel long distances to and from University? Can theatres, concert halls and cinemas stay closed beyond Christmas?
What about our city centres and shopping centres in the run up to Christmas and the transport to get to these places. All questions and thoughts that I can’t begin to get my head around.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Like has been suggested, long term social distancing in public life will be very difficult to implement. The obvious strategy to contain the virus once lockdown is lifted is rigorous and widespread testing of the general population. the 'test, trace and isolate' strategy has worked very well in South Korea, Australia and New Zealand to contain and limit the spread of the virus.

Long term social distancing will also be a nightmare to enforce. Once 'lockdown' is lifted, how will it be enforced in parks and public places? Will pubs, cinemas and theatres have to stay shut permanently as it's just as impossible to enforce there as it will be on public transport? And how will 'essential journeys' be policed once lockdown ends? For many people, travelling to see friends and family that they haven't seen for months will be 'essential' to them, even if government doesn't think do. I don't drive, so travelling to see my friends and family will be essential travel for me.

Social distancing isn't enforced at the moment, it's merely advised. Clearly there are some situations ( public transport, pubs, sporting events, concerts) where it would be virtually impossible to maintain a two metre distance from anyone else. Perhaps businesses in these sectors could simply put up signs saying "social distancing not practiced in this area, enter at your own risk"?

 

[bramling]

Social distancing isn't enforced at the moment, it's merely advised. Clearly there are some situations ( public transport, pubs, sporting events, concerts) where it would be virtually impossible to maintain a two metre distance from anyone else. Perhaps businesses in these sectors could simply put up signs saying "social distancing not practiced in this area, enter at your own risk"?

That's plain irresponsible IMO. It may be the case the individuals are happy to take the risk themselves, however this ignores the risk that they may pass it onto someone who's higher risk. This would only work with some pretty robust social distancing across the board, and I'm not convinced we're ever going to be that robust.

 

[Cardiff123]

If it’s enforced for any longer than a few months it’s going to mean a complete change of lifestyle for so many people. I can’t see how the over 70’s can continue to isolate themselves from their family and friends beyond a few months and into next year, especially those who are very active. Whenever I travel, especially on XC services, there are always so many elderly people travelling from one end of the country to the other to stay with relatives. What about all the students who travel long distances to and from University? Can theatres, concert halls and cinemas stay closed beyond Christmas?
What about our city centres and shopping centres in the run up to Christmas and the transport to get to these places. All questions and thoughts that I can’t begin to get my head around.

I am a young person, but due to an underlying health condition, i'm classed as being moderate-high risk. I'm normally well, but it means I'm in the group, along with the over 70s, that may need to be 'protected' and not be able to fully participate in 'normal life' whilst everyone else is allowed to get back to normal. Hence why I started this thread, to debate how keeping people 'safe' on public transport can be implemented, whether that's by social distancing or otherwise. I don't drive and I rely on buses and trains to go everywhere. If i'm not allowed on public transport until we get a vaccine, i'm effectively house bound for up to 2 years.

But I agree, the retail, leisure and hospitality industries are a minefield to work out how they can operate safely post lockdown in a social distancing society.

Social distancing isn't enforced at the moment, it's merely advised. Clearly there are some situations ( public transport, pubs, sporting events, concerts) where it would be virtually impossible to maintain a two metre distance from anyone else. Perhaps businesses in these sectors could simply put up signs saying "social distancing not practiced in this area, enter at your own risk"?

Isn't social distancing currently being enforced by the police? Groups of more than 2 people being broken up in public places, gatherings being broken up, people being moved on congregating in parks, and BTP patrolling stations stopping people travelling who are not making essential journeys?

 

[kermit]

As a lifelong rail enthusiast, I will now be quite anxious about travelling in a vehicle where it is likely that dozens of other people have touched any or all of the surfaces. If I have an option to travel in my car, the cleanliness of which I can control, I will very likely take it. Unless or until there are effective treatments (not ones touted by orange megalomaniacs) or a vaccine, that's just the way it will be. Most people don't share my bias towards public transport. I think the future looks very, very bleak indeed.

 

[Bald Rick]

As a lifelong rail enthusiast, I will now be quite anxious about travelling in a vehicle where it is likely that dozens of other people have touched any or all of the surfaces. If I have an option to travel in my car, the cleanliness of which I can control, I will very likely take it. Unless or until there are effective treatments (not ones touted by orange megalomaniacs) or a vaccine, that's just the way it will be. Most people don't share my bias towards public transport. I think the future looks very, very bleak indeed.

Fear not. There’s a sizeable proportion of the population who don’t share this view. I for one will be on the trains as soon as working back in the office is permitted, and I know that most peopl I work wit think the same.

Also, the proportion of the population that have not had the virus is reducing daily, and on the assumption that once you’ve had it you are immune (which seems quite likely) it won’t be too long (a few months) before the chances of catching the virus start diminishing rapidly.

 

[yorksrob]

If they do come up with a vaccine, we'll all be back to normal in terms of public transport.

I hope some pubs will have survived for me to visit though !

 

[Cardiff123]

If they do come up with a vaccine, we'll all be back to normal in terms of public transport.

I hope some pubs will have survived for me to visit though !

The problem though, is that even the WHO have suggested a vaccine is at least 12 months away, and even when it does become available, the general population will be at the bottom of the list for a vaccination. Frontline health workers, teachers, other local authority workers etc, will all be first.
So whilst I'm sure once the general population is vaccinated public transport will recover, not least due to the climate emergency, it's about how life goes on and is managed until a vaccine is developed.

 

[MDB1images]

It's a huge headache that no-one has answers to yet including the TOCs who have different opinions on social distance risks on board(even now for example some TOCs think doing revenue checks aren't a risk, others think it is-no joined up message).

It'll need a uniformed approach that passengers and staff can believe in and makes travelling as safe as realistically possible.

Fwiw, my own opinion,
far too many staff ill or self isolating for services to ramp up a notch across the industry so not sure a return to normality will arrive anytime soon.
Passengers have been told to stay off public transport as it's a risk, that will stick with those who can use a car so I don't see a mass rush back until a vaccine or real testing has been rolled out for that group.
Of the other groups I think leisure activity's that people travelled on the train for(weekend hotel stays, boozy days out, football, rugby, horse racing etc) will remain shut so I feel that market will take a while to return.

Certainly not an easy problem to solve particularly as there will remain a fear in this virus for a lot of the population for a long time yet.

 

[yorksrob]

The problem though, is that even the WHO have suggested a vaccine is at least 12 months away, and even when it does become available, the general population will be at the bottom of the list for a vaccination. Frontline health workers, teachers, other local authority workers etc, will all be first.
So whilst I'm sure once the general population is vaccinated public transport will recover, not least due to the climate emergency, it's about how life goes on and is managed until a vaccine is developed.

This is very true.

Perhaps in the meantime they will have to introduce a carriage for people who are more at risk. A specially spaced carriage that you can only get in with a doctors note.

This is off the top of my head, but we will need some ingenuity in managing this.

 

[matt]

The problem though, is that even the WHO have suggested a vaccine is at least 12 months away, and even when it does become available, the general population will be at the bottom of the list for a vaccination. Frontline health workers, teachers, other local authority workers etc, will all be first.
So whilst I'm sure once the general population is vaccinated public transport will recover, not least due to the climate emergency, it's about how life goes on and is managed until a vaccine is developed.

Oxford University are aiming for a vaccine by September. They estimated an 80% of achieving this. Human trials start within the next two weeks. Obviously once the vaccine is found it will still need to be mass produced.

 

[Meerkat]

I would rather they didn’t rush too much. It could end up being given to half the planet - be rather unfortunate if they missed a major side effect......

 

[Cardiff123]

This is very true.

Perhaps in the meantime they will have to introduce a carriage for people who are more at risk. A specially spaced carriage that you can only get in with a doctors note.

This is off the top of my head, but we will need some ingenuity in managing this.

A good idea, but only really enforceable on long distance routes. And what would happen on GWR when a 5 car IET turns up instead of a 10 car? Just cancel the 'high risk' passengers carriage? I guess the most obvious answer is to suspend or reduce first class accommodation, and have one first class carriage per long distance train just for 'high risk' passengers until a vaccine is widely available.
On all other routes, this would be impossible to enforce though.

Oxford University are aiming for a vaccine by September. They estimated an 80% of achieving this. Human trials start within the next two weeks. Obviously once the vaccine is found it will still need to be mass produced.

I've seen that story, but the WHO have basically rubbished the suggestion a vaccine can be widely available that quickly, considering it usually takes a decade to manufacture and approve widespread vaccination programs. Most scientists are saying 12 - 18 months for a widespread vaccination program to be implemented.

 

[Mogster]

Oxford University are aiming for a vaccine by September. They estimated an 80% of achieving this. Human trials start within the next two weeks. Obviously once the vaccine is found it will still need to be mass produced.

Vaccine trials usually have at least 4 phases and take years. There may be a limited trial of possible vaccine candidates on a few healthy volunteers this year but the following phases and would normally take many years. Of course if anything unexpected crops up at any trial stage you have to start again. There’s all sorts of stuff that needs to be checked like drug interactions, safety in pregnancy, safety in different age groups, does it work effectively in all age groups? Not checking properly is asking for trouble.

It’s worth remembering that research groups have to compete for funding...

 

[Greybeard33]

Also, the proportion of the population that have not had the virus is reducing daily, and on the assumption that once you’ve had it you are immune (which seems quite likely) it won’t be too long (a few months) before the chances of catching the virus start diminishing rapidly.

We do not know the proportion of the UK population who have not had the virus, because of the lack of testing. The number of positive tests in the UK now stands at about 98000, increasing by about 5000 daily; most of these tests have been on hospital patients. Data from countries that have carried out mass testing suggests that at least 10% of those infected need hospital treatment. On that basis, no more than 1 million people in the UK have had the virus so far, increasing by no more than 50000/day.

With a population of 67 million, the best estimate is therefore that at least 98.5% have not yet had the virus, reducing by no more than 2.2% per month. At this rate it will take over two years to get down to 40% who have not had it, by which point herd immunity might reduce the infection rate. But many experts doubt that immunity will last as long as two years, so it could end up with a perpetual round of re-infection....

 

[Bletchleyite]

I am pretty sure it will end up "going round" rather like flu. I am hoping it will do what most viruses do, and as it mutates becomes less deadly. It's not in a virus's interest to kill its hosts as it impedes spread, so less deadly viruses tend to be favoured in evolutionary terms.

If it ends up being no more deadly than a cold, it will simply be a nuisance alongside other colds.

 

[NorthernSpirit]

Long term social distancing will also be a nightmare to enforce. Once 'lockdown' is lifted, how will it be enforced in parks and public places? Will pubs, cinemas and theatres have to stay shut permanently as it's just as impossible to enforce there as it will be on public transport? And how will 'essential journeys' be policed once lockdown ends? For many people, travelling to see friends and family that they haven't seen for months will be 'essential' to them, even if government doesn't think do. I don't drive, so travelling to see my friends and family will be essential travel for me.

I'm guessing that there will be a phased reopening of pubs and whatnot. The rural country pubs reopen first then as time goes on the average town pubs reopen then a few months later city centre pubs then reopen. Cinemas could function but every other seat is out of use. However with public transport, everyone's journey will be essential after being stuck indoors for months on end and to get out and about to clear their heads.

 

[Greybeard33]

I am pretty sure it will end up "going round" rather like flu. I am hoping it will do what most viruses do, and as it mutates becomes less deadly. It's not in a virus's interest to kill its hosts as it impedes spread, so less deadly viruses tend to be favoured in evolutionary terms.

If it ends up being no more deadly than a cold, it will simply be a nuisance alongside other colds.

Waiting for the virus to evolve and (hopefully) become less deadly seems like a policy Mr Micawber would have approved of!

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Then are we going to enter the relm of papers to prove who's in our household? i.e. so that a family can occupy seats together

Can't see anyone needing that. If we went down that path of avoiding reservations too close to other reservations, then the rather obvious solution is: If someone reserves multiple seats at the same time, then you assume they are people able to travel together and so put them in seats next to each other (perhaps an extra question on the online booking system to confirm that). But people making separate bookings are placed a minimum distance apart. Problem solved (with a small element of trust which will be adequate if most of the population respect the rules).

The real problem is, do you allow people without reservations on long distance trains. That's a toughie because many long distance trains become commuter trains at the 'far' end of their route. Imagine for example, insisting on reservations between Preston and Lancaster on the London-Glasgow pendolinos. That wouldn't go down well.

 

[Cardiff123]

Apologies for this article being behind a paywall, but I suspect this will apply all over the UK, but with the Prime Minister currently being out of action, no one is available to make such an announcement like this at a UK level yet.

Coronavirus in Scotland: Social restrictions vital until vaccine is found, Nicola Sturgeon says

Restrictions to daily life to keep the coronavirus at bay are expected to be the new normal for a very long time, the first minister has said.Scottish health officials have stressed that Covid-19 is “here to stay” and that there will be no return to the herd immunity strategy under which about

www.thetimes.co.uk

Restrictions to daily life to keep coronavirus at bay are expected to be the new normal for a very long time, the first minister has said.

Scottish health officials have stressed that Covid-19 is “here to stay” and there will be no return to the herd immunity exit strategy that would have seen around 60 per cent of population infected.

Nicola Sturgeon said social restrictions to suppress the spread of the virus would have to remain in place until a vaccine emerges.

Speaking at a briefing today in Edinburgh, Ms Sturgeon said: “Coronavirus is not simply going to go away, and that we know for certain.

“We know that herd immunity has become one of these phrases that is often talked about in misleading ways.

“Herd immunity is what you can get through a vaccine, for example. We know a vaccine is still some time away, although hopefully not that far away, so we are going to have to continue to manage and suppress the virus for some time to come.”

The Welsh education minister also said the same when asked about potential school re-openings in Wales on Wednesday:

ITV Wales News on Twitter

“"Social distancing practices are due to continue for a considerable period of time." Education Minister Kirsty Williams says when schools do reopen it will not be business as usual. https://t.co/UDkHOxAJ7X”

twitter.com

 

[Cardiff123]

I'm guessing that there will be a phased reopening of pubs and whatnot. The rural country pubs reopen first then as time goes on the average town pubs reopen then a few months later city centre pubs then reopen. Cinemas could function but every other seat is out of use. However with public transport, everyone's journey will be essential after being stuck indoors for months on end and to get out and about to clear their heads.

Pubs, bars and restaurants are really difficult ones at a time of social distancing. They are essentially a breeding ground for the virus. And how do you keep everyone 2 metres apart? People go to pubs to socialise and chat, that will be difficult with your friends all 2 metres away from you.