Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[jagardner1984]

There is sadly an economic reality to all this as well. Whilst the feeling on social media etc seems to be rather a lot of people are quite enjoying the government paying them 80% for staying at home, the long term numbers are just eye watering as a result. So there will be huge pressure to try and find a way to get some people back to work, and crucially, the kids back to school. Yesterday on my daily exercise I passed a number of Large empty industrial premises, and wondered if there might be some low density temporary office / light manufacturing premises built for companies to lease closer to people’s homes. As has been seen internationally, ideas such as split week schooling to allow lower density and lower contact, and allowing premises up to a certain size to reopen, or to do it on a regional basis as health care systems begin to recover. As others have said, mass public gatherings where virtually the main purpose is to be close to one another, pubs, clubs, Football stadia, theatres and cinemas, will doubtless be the very last places to reopen.

With the exception of a relative few with compromised immune or weak respiratory systems, the issue has never been the individual going to work, or indeed then getting sick, the issue has been the impact of that action on others, either as symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers, or crucially those who have had the virus but absolutely can still transmit the virus to others via surfaces etc. Indeed are possibly more likely to do so as people clean less when more confident of their own immunity.

As illiberal as it sounds, some kind of electronic tag with proof of immunisation status (67 million people won’t be immunised overnight) and Policed airport style security scanners at transport hubs to detect them, with it being a criminal offence to travel without being immunised (obvious priority to key workers before implementation) and enforced mass Contact free hand cleaning stations in public places.

Much as I am often a critic of the government, they tried asking nicely, and currently thousands of people are grieving loved ones as a result of the failure of that policy. Drastic temporary action will be required to allow any kind of significant economic activity to occur before mass immunisation is completed, and to avoid saddling our children with an even more spectacular degree of debt, austerity and decline.

 

[Bantamzen]

There is sadly an economic reality to all this as well. Whilst the feeling on social media etc seems to be rather a lot of people are quite enjoying the government paying them 80% for staying at home, the long term numbers are just eye watering as a result. So there will be huge pressure to try and find a way to get some people back to work, and crucially, the kids back to school. Yesterday on my daily exercise I passed a number of Large empty industrial premises, and wondered if there might be some low density temporary office / light manufacturing premises built for companies to lease closer to people’s homes. As has been seen internationally, ideas such as split week schooling to allow lower density and lower contact, and allowing premises up to a certain size to reopen, or to do it on a regional basis as health care systems begin to recover. As others have said, mass public gatherings where virtually the main purpose is to be close to one another, pubs, clubs, Football stadia, theatres and cinemas, will doubtless be the very last places to reopen.

With the exception of a relative few with compromised immune or weak respiratory systems, the issue has never been the individual going to work, or indeed then getting sick, the issue has been the impact of that action on others, either as symptomatic or asymptomatic carriers, or crucially those who have had the virus but absolutely can still transmit the virus to others via surfaces etc. Indeed are possibly more likely to do so as people clean less when more confident of their own immunity.

As illiberal as it sounds, some kind of electronic tag with proof of immunisation status (67 million people won’t be immunised overnight) and Policed airport style security scanners at transport hubs to detect them, with it being a criminal offence to travel without being immunised (obvious priority to key workers before implementation) and enforced mass Contact free hand cleaning stations in public places.

Much as I am often a critic of the government, they tried asking nicely, and currently thousands of people are grieving loved ones as a result of the failure of that policy. Drastic temporary action will be required to allow any kind of significant economic activity to occur before mass immunisation is completed, and to avoid saddling our children with an even more spectacular degree of debt, austerity and decline.

That solution sounds like something out a 1980's sci-fi movie, and is frankly completely unworkable. Some governments have already been musing about "immunity passports" but the devil is in the detail. Firstly a vaccine won't be widely available until at least next year, so you have to effectively lock-down your society & economy for far longer than they will be able to stand. Plus with hugely reduced ridership, transport operators in a privatised system won't hold out forever. If the money isn't coming in, they will eventually fold. This is already happening. Plus nobody even knows how long any successful vaccine will hold out against it. The moment it is introduced in any kind of bulk, the virus will start to mutate. A few incorrect copied sections of it's RNA could easily render the vaccine much less effective, and you are back to square one. In other words any "temporary" measures could quickly become permanent, and then you are back to lock-down, income & tax loss, more companies folding and so on. An ever-decreasing circle.

Secondly there is going to be problems with logistics. Even if you could get the infrastructure in place at transport hubs, not all public transport ridership passes through hubs. There are well over two thousand stations in the UK, and most don't have barriers or staff. So how would the government manage that? There's no point having uber-security at a hub if most punters have already mingled before getting there.

Finally, there's simply no need for such Orwellian measures. For the most part people can, and frankly should be mitigating risks themselves. So simple things like not touching your face until you have either washed or used a hand sanitiser, covering your mouth and nose before coughing or sneezing with a issue or something similar, even just getting out of the habit of all crushing into carriages closest to the exits as often happens on busy commuter trains. Beyond that other measures such as opening office / business hours and spreading out the commuter movements over more hours to reduce crushes, or even moving some functions away from the busiest areas to spread the commute out even more, and of course encouraging more working from home for at least part of the week. All of these are perfectly reasonable, and practical ways of massively reducing the risk of the virus spreading through public transport use.

One more thing, despite what people seem to want to believe, the overwhelming majority of people in this country are adhering to the asks. And it is starting to have an effect, both new infection and mortality rates are starting to level off. Maybe you need to re-focus your criticism back to the government and ask why they stalled on a test & trace regime, why they stalled when engineering & clothing firms offered their services to get much needed equipment to front-line healthcare staff, why they stalled on a EU-wide initiative to get respirators commissioned and built. A lot of reasons that many people have died when they might not have can be traced right back to Westminster.

 

[yorksrob]

Pubs, bars and restaurants are really difficult ones at a time of social distancing. They are essentially a breeding ground for the virus. And how do you keep everyone 2 metres apart? People go to pubs to socialise and chat, that will be difficult with your friends all 2 metres away from you.

I'm not sure that's insurmountable.

2m might be difficult, but people can sit apart and socialise. Many countries in Asia that have been more successful in controlling the spread of the virus, have cafes and restaurants open.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'm not sure that's insurmountable.

2m might be difficult, but people can sit apart and socialise. Many countries in Asia that have been more successful in controlling the spread of the virus, have cafes and restaurants open.

"Vertical drinking" would be a problem, but once we get cases down enough it might be enough to separate tables by 2m rather than individuals, which is what I think those countries are doing.

 

[yorksrob]

"Vertical drinking" would be a problem, but once we get cases down enough it might be enough to separate tables by 2m rather than individuals, which is what I think those countries are doing.

I've never been a fan of vertical drinking anyway.

People need to get beyond the view that people aren't going to meet anyone else for years on end. That's not going to happen. It will be a case of managing risk. ust having hand sanitizer readily available going in and out of places will be one way of mitigating risk.

 

[Bantamzen]

"Vertical drinking" would be a problem, but once we get cases down enough it might be enough to separate tables by 2m rather than individuals, which is what I think those countries are doing.

Just before pubs were shut, my local rearranged the seating in such a manner. It would offer a halfway house to limited re-opening sooner rather than later.

I've never been a fan of vertical drinking anyway.

Its never been a problem for me, I usually end up not vertical one way or another....

People need to get beyond the view that people aren't going to meet anyone else for years on end. That's not going to happen. It will be a case of managing risk. ust having hand sanitizer readily available going in and out of places will be one way of mitigating risk.

Stop it, stop it now! Sensible & easily implementable solutions will make some people very cross, and interfere with their dystopian fantasies…

 

[yorksrob]

Stop it, stop it now! Sensible & easily implementable solutions will make some people very cross, and interfere with their dystopian fantasies…

That assumes they actually start making enough of the stuff at some stage of course

 

[Bantamzen]

That assumes they actually start making enough of the stuff at some stage of course

In the US many breweries are already on it. So its not too difficult to imagine that some here could switch some operations to do this whilst demand in pubs is suppressed.

 

[cuccir]

I suspect all venues - pubs, restaurants, sporst grounds, theatres, university lecture-halls, conference centres, soft-plays etc etc etc - will have reduced capacity when they reopen, particularly any such venues which are in 'phase 1' of reopening. Initial reopening will probably also include a ban on gatherings over a certain number (this is what is happening or proposed in countries such as Denmark, France and Germany where reopening is underway or scheduled in). This isn't a perfect solution, but is a practical way of managing this process on a national level.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In the US many breweries are already on it. So its not too difficult to imagine that some here could switch some operations to do this whilst demand in pubs is suppressed.

They already have - Brewdog is doing it, for instance. Like with bog roll, it just takes a little time to replenish stocks when there is continuing high demand.

 

[yorksrob]

I suspect all venues - pubs, restaurants, sporst grounds, theatres, university lecture-halls, conference centres, soft-plays etc etc etc - will have reduced capacity when they reopen, particularly any such venues which are in 'phase 1' of reopening. Initial reopening will probably also include a ban on gatherings over a certain number (this is what is happening or proposed in countries such as Denmark, France and Germany where reopening is underway or scheduled in). This isn't a perfect solution, but is a practical way of managing this process on a national level.

Indeed. It's not perfect but its a way forward.

 

[Bantamzen]

They already have - Brewdog is doing it, for instance. Like with bog roll, it just takes a little time to replenish stocks when there is continuing high demand.

Then as a medium term solution this might just be an option for getting some normality back. On a week like this I would love to be able to sit in a beer garden with a cold un....

 

[Bletchleyite]

Then as a medium term solution this might just be an option for getting some normality back. On a week like this I would love to be able to sit in a beer garden with a cold un....

A beer garden is of course lower risk than inside the pub, too. It's quite possible that some pubs could be reopened for consumption outside only with table service.

Generally more scope for distancing, too, by e.g. closing the car park and extending the beer garden over that, maybe on fake grass to make it seem a bit less like you're, er, sitting in the car park.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

I suspect all venues - pubs, restaurants, sporst grounds, theatres, university lecture-halls, conference centres, soft-plays etc etc etc - will have reduced capacity when they reopen, particularly any such venues which are in 'phase 1' of reopening. Initial reopening will probably also include a ban on gatherings over a certain number (this is what is happening or proposed in countries such as Denmark, France and Germany where reopening is underway or scheduled in). This isn't a perfect solution, but is a practical way of managing this process on a national level.

I'm a big fan of real ale micropubs and fear they could be amongst the worst affected businesses if draconion social distancing laws are brought in.

By their very nature, micropubs are much smaller than typical pubs and, with the emphasis on conversation and closer interaction with other customers, any enforcement of the two metre rule would mean they could only allow 4 or 5 customers at any time which would make their businesses unviable.

I would hope the goverment would give smaller premises like micropubs and perhaps small craft shops an exemption to any two metre rule, if indeed such a rule is maintained.

 

[C J Snarzell]

One thing I will definately be doing once the measures are relaxed is being a lot more firm towards people who I feel encroach on my personal space with 'hygiene' issues.

I remember being in a queue a few weeks ago, before this madness started and a bloke behind me stunk like a polecat. Out of politeness and courtesy I didn't say anything but he was testing my patience being stood so close.

If I ever end up in a similar situation again l'll definately be challenging it - I think its a case of having to I'm afraid once we resume normality again.

CJ

 

[Bletchleyite]

A lot of micropubs are like smaller restaurants, though, in that off sales ("bottle shop" type stuff) are a very large part of their market. There are examples of both locally - indeed, prior to the lockdown I recommended one such restaurant for the MK RUK meal - the latter's main trade is takeaway with the restaurant business being a very minor part of their business so they'll cope.

 

[kermit]

Is all this stuff about breweries and hand sanitiser an example of the sort of assumed half-knowledge (like vaccine in 12 months?) that plagues rational discussion on these issues? I could be wrong, but my understanding is that brewing can only ever produce a solution containing less than 20 per cent alcohol. In order to produce working hand sanitiser, you need a concentration of more than 60 per cent alcohol, which involves taking the brewed, weaker liquid, and putting it through a distilling process. Brewdog happen to own a distillery in Northeast Scotland (I don't know what they were making there before) which is why they have been able to produce high alcohol strength sanitiser. Incidentally, the vast majority of spirits (gin, vodka, brandy, whisky etc) sold would also be no use as sanitiser at around 40 per cent alcohol, but they are watered down for sale at that strength from the raw output of the stills that produce them.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One thing I will definately be doing once the measures are relaxed is being a lot more firm towards people who I feel encroach on my personal space with 'hygiene' issues.

I remember being in a queue a few weeks ago, before this madness started and a bloke behind me stunk like a polecat. Out of politeness and courtesy I didn't say anything but he was testing my patience being stood so close.

If I ever end up in a similar situation again l'll definately be challenging it - I think its a case of having to I'm afraid once we resume normality again.

I'm not sure why you'd think "stinking like a polecat" causes someone to have a substantially greater risk of having COVID19?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is all this stuff about breweries and hand sanitiser an example of the sort of assumed half-knowledge (like vaccine in 12 months?) that plagues rational discussion on these issues?

No, because they're actually doing it. You're right that it does require distillation, though.

 

[Bantamzen]

Is all this stuff about breweries and hand sanitiser an example of the sort of assumed half-knowledge (like vaccine in 12 months?) that plagues rational discussion on these issues? I could be wrong, but my understanding is that brewing can only ever produce a solution containing less than 20 per cent alcohol. In order to produce working hand sanitiser, you need a concentration of more than 60 per cent alcohol, which involves taking the brewed, weaker liquid, and putting it through a distilling process. Brewdog happen to own a distillery in Northeast Scotland (I don't know what they were making there before) which is why they have been able to produce high alcohol strength sanitiser. Incidentally, the vast majority of spirits (gin, vodka, brandy, whisky etc) sold would also be no use as sanitiser at around 40 per cent alcohol, but they are watered down for sale at that strength from the raw output of the stills that produce them.

Well plenty of breweries are doing in the US, I couldn't say what percentage they are producing at but it must be possible to do it to the required levels.

I'm not sure why you'd think "stinking like a polecat" causes someone to have a substantially greater risk of having COVID19?

I was thinking much the same.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

I'm not sure why you'd think "stinking like a polecat" causes someone to have a substantially greater risk of having COVID19?

I ould imagine someone with poor personal hygiene is the sort who would think nothing of coughing and spluttering over anyone close to them, thus being more likely to not only catch the virus but spread it as well.

 

[7Paul7]

Well plenty of breweries are doing in the US, I couldn't say what percentage they are producing at but it must be possible to do it to the required levels.



I was thinking much the same.

Presumably smelling is a sign of a bad hygiene routine giving an increased risk of the person catching it?

 

[Jamesrob637]

Sleazyjet have just announced that they will not sell the middle seat on their flights for the time being.

 

[yorksrob]

Is all this stuff about breweries and hand sanitiser an example of the sort of assumed half-knowledge (like vaccine in 12 months?) that plagues rational discussion on these issues? I could be wrong, but my understanding is that brewing can only ever produce a solution containing less than 20 per cent alcohol. In order to produce working hand sanitiser, you need a concentration of more than 60 per cent alcohol, which involves taking the brewed, weaker liquid, and putting it through a distilling process. Brewdog happen to own a distillery in Northeast Scotland (I don't know what they were making there before) which is why they have been able to produce high alcohol strength sanitiser. Incidentally, the vast majority of spirits (gin, vodka, brandy, whisky etc) sold would also be no use as sanitiser at around 40 per cent alcohol, but they are watered down for sale at that strength from the raw output of the stills that produce them.

Someone will have to start churning it out in larger quantities than now, though I doubt breweries are particularly best placed to do that.

 

[Western Lord]

I suspect all venues - pubs, restaurants, sporst grounds, theatres, university lecture-halls, conference centres, soft-plays etc etc etc - will have reduced capacity when they reopen, particularly any such venues which are in 'phase 1' of reopening. Initial reopening will probably also include a ban on gatherings over a certain number (this is what is happening or proposed in countries such as Denmark, France and Germany where reopening is underway or scheduled in). This isn't a perfect solution, but is a practical way of managing this process on a national level.

Pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc. are commercial enterprises that exist to make money for their owners. You cannot make money with "reduced capacity" unless you greatly increase your prices. If these are the conditions under which these businesses are allowed to open, most will not open due to the lack of profitability.

 

[yorksrob]

Pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc. are commercial enterprises that exist to make money for their owners. You cannot make money with "reduced capacity" unless you greatly increase your prices. If these are the conditions under which these businesses are allowed to open, most will not open due to the lack of profitability.

It depends on the case. I can imagine that there are some free houses where it would be better to start getting in some reduced revenue, rather than nothing.

For cinemas, I should imagine running costs are similar whether you have five or five hundred people in there, so as long as they can make enough to cover their overheads, opening might be better.

Commercial landowners will need to rreduce rents if they want to see any income from their assets as well.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Pubs, restaurants, theatres, cinemas etc. are commercial enterprises that exist to make money for their owners. You cannot make money with "reduced capacity" unless you greatly increase your prices. If these are the conditions under which these businesses are allowed to open, most will not open due to the lack of profitability.

Some will, some won't. Cinemas are often half-empty, for instance. They could use dynamic pricing to try to smooth this a bit.

 

[Mathew S]

Someone will have to start churning it out in larger quantities than now, though I doubt breweries are particularly best placed to do that.

INEOS, having created a new manufacturing facility in 10 days at Newton Aycliffe, are currently producing a million bottles of the stuff every day from that facility alone. Obviously, initially, all the additional supplies they, and other companies/organisations, are producing are going to the NHS and other places where they're most needed. In time, though, I would suggest we can expect to see them become available to the public.

It's so simple to make that I'm sure a brewery could easily manage it. I mean, we made a small batch in the university lab the other week and, while there's the challenges of handling large amounts of the raw materials if you want to do it at scale, it's not technically difficult.

 

[AM9]

Someone will have to start churning it out in larger quantities than now, though I doubt breweries are particularly best placed to do that.

Although William Grant & Sons whisky distillery (and others) have turned about 50% of their capacity into producing pure ethanol to supply sanitiser manufacturers and are considering aquiring the materials to make the whole product themselves, (maybe whisky flavoured).
see here:
https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/...make-5m-litres-of-alcohol-for-hand-sanitiser/

 

[yorksrob]

INEOS, having created a new manufacturing facility in 10 days at Newton Aycliffe, are currently producing a million bottles of the stuff every day from that facility alone. Obviously, initially, all the additional supplies they, and other companies/organisations, are producing are going to the NHS and other places where they're most needed. In time, though, I would suggest we can expect to see them become available to the public.

It's so simple to make that I'm sure a brewery could easily manage it. I mean, we made a small batch in the university lab the other week and, while there's the challenges of handling large amounts of the raw materials if you want to do it at scale, it's not technically difficult.

Although William Grant & Sons whisky distillery (and others) have turned about 50% of their capacity into producing pure ethanol to supply sanitiser manufacturers and are considering aquiring the materials to make the whole product themselves, (maybe whisky flavoured).
see here:
https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/...make-5m-litres-of-alcohol-for-hand-sanitiser/

That's good. We'll need a lot of it.