Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

WM Bus

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I agree completely, but where I live in Scotland the 'route map' certainly doesn't seem to suggest this is on the cards anytime soon.

Phase 2 (Around Late June/Early July) States:



Phase 3 (Around Late July/Early-Mid August) States:



Scotland are in my opinion taking a far too harsh approach on the suppression of the disease, even compared to Westminster. Is it really practical for this level of low capacity to carry on for months to come as planned by the Scottish Government? I'm getting fearful that one of the big firms here is going to end up dying off before they realise the damage this has caused, and by that point the damage will have likely been done.
Has there been any announcement of whats likely to happen in England?
 
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Bletchleyite

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Has there been any announcement of whats likely to happen in England?
No, England hasn't published that far ahead, which might be for a few reasons:
1. They like being secretive (they have all along)
2. They can't be held to commitments in case things have to change
3. They haven't been competent enough to work it out.

I suspect a mixture of all three.
 

yorksrob

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Our current social distancing policy on public transport will come to be seen as more and more of an anachronism as both continental public transport and air travel with hardly any social distancing at all become more and more established.
 

yorksrob

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No, England hasn't published that far ahead, which might be for a few reasons:
1. They like being secretive (they have all along)
2. They can't be held to commitments in case things have to change
3. They haven't been competent enough to work it out.

I suspect a mixture of all three.
Or they're biding their time to see what happens elsewhere ?
 

Peter Mugridge

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No, England hasn't published that far ahead, which might be for a few reasons:
1. They like being secretive (they have all along)
2. They can't be held to commitments in case things have to change
3. They haven't been competent enough to work it out.

I suspect a mixture of all three.

The next review isn't due until Thursday is it? Which makes me think we won't hear anything further until at least that evening. I strongly suspect we may be moved down to level 3, which gives them the scope to adjust the distancing as their own chart says there would be reduced distancing at this level.
 

Smidster

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The next review isn't due until Thursday is it? Which makes me think we won't hear anything further until at least that evening. I strongly suspect we may be moved down to level 3, which gives them the scope to adjust the distancing as their own chart says there would be reduced distancing at this level.
The next stages of easement have been announced and will not involve a reduction in social distancing.

The main plan is that from June 1st "non essential" retail will be permitted to open (but not Pubs) alongside some schoolchildren going back.

July 4th is then the date suggested for the next stage of easement but no indication, sadly, of any reduction in distancing.

On the issue of bus reservations I don't think it works at all - when you have so few seats available then it just becomes fastest finger first. My usual bus to the train station typically has maybe 15-20 people on it each morning and would be limited to probably 7? with distancing. This isn't reserving a time to go shopping...we are all going to work. Let's say 10 people have no other form of transport and need to go to work - we are all then competing to reserve our place on the bus.

Ultimately I think there needs to be a point where people need to manage their risk (which right now is pretty low) Realistically we are talking about the conditions for the next 9 months - a balance needs to be struck for everyone's sake.
 

squizzler

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Do mobile phone apps tell you how full the trains and busses are? I understood that Trainline claims that its app tells you which cars on any given service are least full, and Apple maps shows you if the streets are congested.

It won't make more capacity, but should at least spread the demand more evenly amongst the services that are available.
 

Peter Mugridge

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The next stages of easement have been announced and will not involve a reduction in social distancing.

The main plan is that from June 1st "non essential" retail will be permitted to open (but not Pubs) alongside some schoolchildren going back.

July 4th is then the date suggested for the next stage of easement but no indication, sadly, of any reduction in distancing.
Not that plan, the separate but parallel alert level - about which the Government has twice said this month in the daily briefings that we are "moving towards level 3", which does include ( unspecified ) reductions in distancing - I posted the full chart in another thread a few days ago:

 

Bletchleyite

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Agree, fully expect it to be lowered to Level 3 which will open the economy up at bit more as Social distancing measures reduce.

Things looking like they are heading in the right direction so fingers crossed.
I dunno, there's been a bit of a spike in new cases, but I wonder if these derive from the VE Day celebrations which were a bit of a pause in social distancing in many places.
 

Killingworth

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I dunno, there's been a bit of a spike in new cases, but I wonder if these derive from the VE Day celebrations which were a bit of a pause in social distancing in many places.
Today's briefing went heavily into attacking Cummings, which diverted attention from the slowing decline in cases. I'd have wanted to ask where are all the new cases coming from? Geographically, likely sources of contact, and background of sufferers. Unless the downward trend resumes its previous steady fall we'll not get major reductions in lock down measures. Hopefully it's just a blip in the downward trend, but we need to better refine our approaches.
 

Bletchleyite

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Today's briefing went heavily into attacking Cummings, which diverted attention from the slowing decline in cases. I'd have wanted to ask where are all the new cases coming from? Geographically, likely sources of contact, and background of sufferers. Unless the downward trend resumes its previous steady fall we'll not get major reductions in lock down measures. Hopefully it's just a blip in the downward trend, but we need to better refine our approaches.
In my observation, people (kids, teens and twentysomethings, mostly) are meeting up in larger groups (may not be an issue in itself) but not maintaining the 2m thing, not even 1m (probably is). I don't know how many cases are left in the wild (rather than healthcare/social care settings), though - I've heard suggestion of almost none in London.

I went for a long (7 miles ish) walk today around MK, and almost felt a right fool for walking 2m "round" people given how many people just weren't paying any attention to it at all.
 

northernchris

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In my observation, people (kids, teens and twentysomethings, mostly) are meeting up in larger groups (may not be an issue in itself) but not maintaining the 2m thing, not even 1m (probably is). I don't know how many cases are left in the wild (rather than healthcare/social care settings), though - I've heard suggestion of almost none in London.
I've also noticed more groups not maintaining social distancing and it would be interesting to know if France / Italy / Spain have the same issue given they are all in a much better position than a couple of weeks ago.

Today's briefing went heavily into attacking Cummings, which diverted attention from the slowing decline in cases. I'd have wanted to ask where are all the new cases coming from? Geographically, likely sources of contact, and background of sufferers. Unless the downward trend resumes its previous steady fall we'll not get major reductions in lock down measures. Hopefully it's just a blip in the downward trend, but we need to better refine our approaches.
It would be really useful to know where the cases are being detected, especially how many are detected in the community per region, rather than have 6 or 7 journalists ask the same question in a different way. However Dr Harries did comment that the number of new confirmed cases is on a general downward trend against an increase in daily tests so things are going in the right direction
 

Bletchleyite

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I've also noticed more groups not maintaining social distancing and it would be interesting to know if France / Italy / Spain have the same issue given they are all in a much better position than a couple of weeks ago.
For what it's worth I believe this is why Italy got its stricter lockdown (no exercise). Their original one was the same as ours.

That said, the effect may be different as Italian people are very "touchy feely" and British people typically not.
 

Romsey

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In my observation, people (kids, teens and twentysomethings, mostly) are meeting up in larger groups (may not be an issue in itself) but not maintaining the 2m thing, not even 1m (probably is). I don't know how many cases are left in the wild (rather than healthcare/social care settings), though - I've heard suggestion of almost none in London.

I went for a long (7 miles ish) walk today around MK, and almost felt a right fool for walking 2m "round" people given how many people just weren't paying any attention to it at all.

I think part of the government message has been lost, mainly by the media - who often can't comprehend complex ideas.
As far as I can remember, the two metre "rule" was for when you stopped and talked to someone else.
Was there ever a recommendation about a distance for walking or cycling past another person? Answers on an electronic postcard please!.

PS This isn't a dig at Bletchleyite, more at our countries inability to comprehend multipart messages and our government thinking we can't cope with complex ideas!
 

Mag_seven

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In my observation, people (kids, teens and twentysomethings, mostly) are meeting up in larger groups (may not be an issue in itself) but not maintaining the 2m thing, not even 1m (probably is). I don't know how many cases are left in the wild (rather than healthcare/social care settings), though - I've heard suggestion of almost none in London.

I went for a long (7 miles ish) walk today around MK, and almost felt a right fool for walking 2m "round" people given how many people just weren't paying any attention to it at all.
I've found it very difficult if you are walking with someone to sustain it for any period of time. You start off consciously doing it but you soon forget and end walking the way you always have done with someone else i.e. less than 2m away. Its a bit like when you are abroad and go to cross the road - you know you should look left but you instinctively always look right.
 

Bletchleyite

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I've found it very difficult if you are walking with someone to sustain it for any period of time. You start off consciously doing it but you soon forget and end walking the way you always have done with someone else i.e. less than 2m away. Its a bit like when you are abroad and go to cross the road - you know you should look left but you instinctively always look right.
I've been meeting up with a friend since this was allowed, and we did actually discuss this and decided to stick with cycling rather than walking because it'd be nigh on impossible to stick to it walking, whereas unless you're very experienced at riding in a peloton cycling within 2m of someone is very likely to end up with a very painful result in quite short order.
 

yorksrob

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I've been meeting up with a friend since this was allowed, and we did actually discuss this and decided to stick with cycling rather than walking because it'd be nigh on impossible to stick to it walking, whereas unless you're very experienced at riding in a peloton cycling within 2m of someone is very likely to end up with a very painful result in quite short order.
It's difficult to converse when you're cycling though.

I met up with a friend from outside the household for a walk this week and it was possible to maintain a distance and chat at the same time.
 

LowLevel

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For what it's worth as someone who is normally very close to their colleagues we are finding it very difficult at work. We generally spend more time with each other than our own families and the concept of walking apart etc is alien. It's very odd. I've noticed the police struggling with it when in pairs too - it's like watching the same awkwardness we feel when they notice and spring apart but they're soon in close formation again. Some of our trolley hosts I would normally greet with a hug or even a kiss on the cheek and it's probably a good thing we aren't working together at the minute because it requires a lot of thought to maintain the distancing.
 

Jamesrob637

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It's difficult to converse when you're cycling though.

I met up with a friend from outside the household for a walk this week and it was possible to maintain a distance and chat at the same time.
I've met various mates over the last few weeks but only ever one at a time, exclusively outdoors and always maintained the two metres. However I have walked some narrow paths and pavements where 2 metres from oncoming walkers, joggers and cyclists just isn't feasible. It's okay on 99% of the roads around mine especially after 20:00 with the lighter evenings for the next couple of months making it safer to walk later on. However a few others seem to have the same idea!
 

yorkie

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I've met various mates over the last few weeks but only ever one at a time, exclusively outdoors and always maintained the two metres. However I have walked some narrow paths and pavements where 2 metres from oncoming walkers, joggers and cyclists just isn't feasible. It's okay on 99% of the roads around mine especially after 20:00 with the lighter evenings for the next couple of months making it safer to walk later on. However a few others seem to have the same idea!
A couple of threads you may find interesting:
 

infobleep

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Taking a less busy route and reducing the number of changes (for example between bus and train) will help you keep your distance from others.

I don't know if this has been covered in the 45 pages so far but doing the above will only be possible if TOCs run their full services. For example on my last trip I made an additional change at Redhill because the trains from Guildford are not runing to Gatwick Airport.

To be fair to the DfT, I could have gone via Clapham Junction to Haywards Heath but that would have cost more money and my journey was faster via Redhill, due to an unofficial connection at Gatwick Airport. I don't know if a faster journey with more changes is more risky than a slower journey with less changes however.

I don't drive. I did take my test and fail twice, years ago but the insentive to carry on with a different instructor just wasn't there, as I used public transport a lot. I also got fairly within a year or two.

As for riding a bicycle, the other way to avoid public transport, I can't do this on two wheels as I don't have the balance.I could get a tricycle and you can even get folding ones.

However I would need cycling proficiency training to be on the road. Which would need to bring me into contact with other people.
 

infobleep

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Er, why? The vast majority of cyclists haven't, or have forgotten that they have, it's a school thing.
Maybe legally you don't but wouldn't it be prudant to do so. I mean people taking driving tests when oncs upon a time they didn't.
 
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Yew

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As well as the issue of legality, there is a question of whether travelling by train would be safe - while you may not relish a long car journey, I wonder if a long train journey (or series of journey legss) would be abnormally stressful, in terms of feeling out of control if you end up trapped in a queue or people crowding close to you or someone sitting down to close to you unexpectedly, at every station or interchange point.
Given that for most people the risk is as high as driving 185 miles, unless the OP is in a higher risk group, then this is unlikely.
 

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