• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

Status
Not open for further replies.

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
The longer the situation goes on, the more need there will be to start training again. Once a way has been established to undertake that training in a post lockdown situation, it will continue.

Yes you're right a solution will have to be found. But even if we get going now, your newly recruited drivers will probably be ready by about January 2022...
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Qwerty133

Established Member
Joined
7 Oct 2012
Messages
2,453
Location
Leicester/Sheffield
Yes you're right a solution will have to be found. But even if we get going now, your newly recruited drivers will probably be ready by about January 2022...
It is almost certain that the absence figures will come down as time progresses, whether that is through the small minority of lazy people being questioned about their supposed need for repetitive self isolation, the list of those shielding being reduced as it becomes more clear which conditions have the highest risk, or simply due to the number of cases falling. It is also quite likely anyone currently off due to a family member shielding will be left with the choice of returning to work or resigning as no company will pay someone not to work for an indefinite period if that person has no medical need to do so. It is also possible that as things progress that some routes will need to increase capacity much quicker than others and many will be able to stay at a lower frequency for the foreseeable which could well allow drivers and other staff (and stock) to be moved around with much less training than a new starter would require.
A co-ordinated strategy involving using road transport on some routes where appropriate in place of trains could also take significant pressure off of the railway network, as it is likely that the bus and coach industry will have significant spare capacity for the foreseeable future (and could further be reinforced by the use of armed forces personal while new drivers are trained).
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,818
Location
Yorks
Perhaps we ought to halt all pacer scrappings so that they can be used to increase capacity for social distancing.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Perhaps we ought to halt all pacer scrappings so that they can be used to increase capacity for social distancing.

Got a spare depot or two in your back pocket so there's space to stable and maintain them?

Not that it's a bad idea in principle though. In fact, I quite like it - run them coupled to a 156 and the key workers can get the 156 and the seasiders can slum it in the Pacer!
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,818
Location
Yorks
Got a spare depot or two in your back pocket so there's spare to stable and maintain them?

They don't need to be kept indoors all the time.

There's a fan of sidings opposite Neville Hill that are barely used currently, they could keep some there some of the time.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
They don't need to be kept indoors all the time.

There's a fan of sidings opposite Neville Hill that are barely used currently, they could keep some there some of the time.

Authorised walking route compliant with current standards? Security? Method of working for getting trains on and off the sidings, which the TOC drivers are trained and familiar with?
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,818
Location
Yorks
Authorised walking route compliant with current standards? Security? Method of working for getting trains on and off the sidings, which the TOC drivers are trained and familiar with?

It will take ingenuity to sort it out - this is true.

But the railway can show ingenuity - as the storage of 144's on the K&WVR recently has shown.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
It will take ingenuity to sort it out - this is true.

But the railway can show ingenuity - as the storage of 144's on the K&WVR recently has shown.

These things take time. Meanwhile at present for example my place is concerned with such basic problems as what's going to happen in 3 weeks time when many of the staff currently keeping the show running are due to go on annual leave and there's looking like no one to cover them...
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
The economy is very high up on that list. And when, not if, the lockdown is seen to be doing more damage than the economy can stand, things will start to change. You see people working & paying taxes, & people spending in the retail & leisure sectors and paying taxes pays for the NHS. The government is already having to borrow far more than it ever planned, but so are many governments around the world, so borrowing is going to become more difficult as there is a finite amount of cash to go around globally. Which means an extended lock-down, or extended distancing measures that make large parts of the economy unviable, including public transport then the Treasury will start to run out of money very quickly. And when that does, how do you suppose key services will be funded? Short answer, they won't.

It doesn't matter whether people think this is right or wrong, its just the reality in a capitalist based economy. My greatest fear right not is not the virus, but the consequences of people hiding behind government decisions in the hope they will always keep them safe. They won't.

People are certainly going to have to be prepared for tough economic decisions over the next couple of years. Last December's manifesto is probably now not worth the paper it was printed on, and to be fair we all have to be realistic about that.

The situation in America looks particularly troubling, especially considering the number of guns in general circulation...
 

Greybeard33

Established Member
Joined
18 Feb 2012
Messages
4,229
Location
Greater Manchester
I think this thread has been "building castles in the air." A resurgence of railway leisure travel is highly unlikely anytime soon. According to Prof. Neil Ferguson on R4 this morning:
On relaxing the current restrictions, Prof Ferguson said: "What we really need is the ability to put something in their place. If we want to open schools, let people get back to work, then we need to keep transmission down in another manner.

"And I should say, it's not going to be going back to normal. We will have to maintain some level of social distancing, a significant level of social distancing, probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available."

BBC health correspondent James Gallagher said if a vaccine were to be found, it was not expected that manufacturers would be able to mass produce it until the second half of 2021.

"Remember, there are four coronaviruses that already circulate in human beings. They cause the common cold, and we don't have vaccines for any of them," he said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52308201

The virus would relish a resumption of "bucket and spade" travel, especially by train, as this would maximise social mixing and enable it to leap between communities in different parts of the country, thereby spreading faster. Therefore non-essential rail travel is highly unlikely to feature among the early relaxations - the attempts to resuscitate the economy will be by more local measures such as reopening shops, schools and factories.

IMO it is debatable if, at the current low level of patronage, the passenger railway really counts as an essential public service, at least outside the London commuter belt. If staff unavailability makes the current emergency timetable unsustainable, I think the solution will be to provide replacement road transport for key workers - coach, bus or taxi dependent on demand from each area. There should be no shortage of available vehicles and drivers. Then the railway workforce can catch up with their deferred leave and decline overtime, as they choose, while HM Treasury reduces its subsidy payments accordingly.
 

Cardiff123

Established Member
Joined
10 Mar 2013
Messages
1,318
People are certainly going to have to be prepared for tough economic decisions over the next couple of years. Last December's manifesto is probably now not worth the paper it was printed on, and to be fair we all have to be realistic about that.

The situation in America looks particularly troubling, especially considering the number of guns in general circulation...
What manifesto? :lol: The Conservative manifesto from last December was essentially just a pamphlet with "Get Brexit Done" on every page.

On economic choices, it all depends whether there's more austerity, which after a decade of it, this crisis has highlighted how poorly prepared austerity has left the NHS, the police and local government to deal with a sudden crisis, or if the Keynesian economic model that was adopted after WW2 is followed, to invest and spend to stimulate the economy.
 

CaptainHaddock

Established Member
Joined
10 Feb 2011
Messages
2,206
I think this thread has been "building castles in the air." A resurgence of railway leisure travel is highly unlikely anytime soon. According to Prof. Neil Ferguson on R4 this morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52308201

The virus would relish a resumption of "bucket and spade" travel, especially by train, as this would maximise social mixing and enable it to leap between communities in different parts of the country, thereby spreading faster. Therefore non-essential rail travel is highly unlikely to feature among the early relaxations - the attempts to resuscitate the economy will be by more local measures such as reopening shops, schools and factories.

IMO it is debatable if, at the current low level of patronage, the passenger railway really counts as an essential public service, at least outside the London commuter belt. If staff unavailability makes the current emergency timetable unsustainable, I think the solution will be to provide replacement road transport for key workers - coach, bus or taxi dependent on demand from each area. There should be no shortage of available vehicles and drivers. Then the railway workforce can catch up with their deferred leave and decline overtime, as they choose, while HM Treasury reduces its subsidy payments accordingly.

That may be the case but Professor Ferguson is just an advisor to the government. He is not a member of the government and, whilst qualified to comment on scientific matters, is not qualified to comment on the economic aspects of the lockdown and its subsequent lifting.
 

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
2,640
These things take time. Meanwhile at present for example my place is concerned with such basic problems as what's going to happen in 3 weeks time when many of the staff currently keeping the show running are due to go on annual leave and there's looking like no one to cover them...

Assuming their leave is shorter than the time remaining until it’s due to be taken, then cancelling the leave would be the obvious answer. It’s up to the employer when it’s taken and if these people are that critical then it’s not unreasonable to prevent them taking it now. The statutory entitlement can now be deferred for up to two years so people would get their leave eventually.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,685
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
Assuming their leave is shorter than the time remaining until it’s due to be taken, then cancelling the leave would be the obvious answer. It’s up to the employer when it’s taken and if these people are that critical then it’s not unreasonable to prevent them taking it now. The statutory entitlement can now be deferred for up to two years so people would get their leave eventually.

Not an option, once leave is booked then there’s no mechanism for it to be cancelled. The only way it can be cancelled is through goodwill from the individual concerned.

There also comes a point where enough is enough and it’s time to join many others and take a break.
 

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
2,640
Not an option, once leave is booked then there’s no means for it to be cancelled. The only way it can be cancelled is through goodwill from the individual concerned.

Er, surely it’s just a matter of the manager telling the employee that their leave is cancelled?
Or do you have an utterly stupendous employment contract where the employer has given up their rights under the Working Time Regulation for this with no exceptions? ( http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1998/1833/regulation/15/made is the relevant bit of law )
 

johnnychips

Established Member
Joined
19 Nov 2011
Messages
3,675
Location
Sheffield
Er, surely it’s just a matter of the manager telling the employee that their leave is cancelled?
Or do you have an utterly stupendous employment contract where the employer has given up their rights under the Working Time Regulation for this with no exceptions? ( http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/1998/1833/regulation/15/made is the relevant bit of law )
Glad you’re not my boss. Mine would negotiate and probably sort it out, rather than have a lot of pissed off employees who would give well less than 100%.
 

JamesT

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2015
Messages
2,640
Glad you’re not my boss. Mine would negotiate and probably sort it out, rather than have a lot of pissed off employees who would give well less than 100%.

Sure, a measure of diplomacy is required. But ultimately if a number of people are due to be on leave who are critical to the running of the business as has been stated, then the leave needs to be cancelled. I assume the people who would normally provide cover are off sick, self-isolating, shielding etc. so leave could likely be taken once they return.
It’s not something to be done on a whim as that would be illegal, but is there for exceptional circumstances. These are exceptional circumstances we’re going through.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,668
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
People are certainly going to have to be prepared for tough economic decisions over the next couple of years. Last December's manifesto is probably now not worth the paper it was printed on, and to be fair we all have to be realistic about that.

There's little doubt about that now. However there are an awful lot of people that won't survive financially if the IMF's forecasts for economic downturn are anywhere near accurate. Something like global economies shrinking by 30-40%, and 400-600 million people worldwide thrown into poverty. Even though we have the pressing matter of dealing with the spread of the virus, these kind of forecasts will be taking more & more priority as the weeks press on. It could be seriously damaging in this country, but imagine the impact in poorer countries? I foresee mass movements of refugees in the coming years, which will only add even more pressure to those countries they seek to go to.

The situation in America looks particularly troubling, especially considering the number of guns in general circulation...

The US is the biggest worry of them all. In the UK we panic buy toilet roll, in the US they panic buy guns, cheered on by the NRA & the Trump administration. And the very same are going to want to punish someone sometime soon. If Trump survives the election (assuming he doesn't announce his dictatorship before then) I have a horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that they will be on the war path, literally.
 
Last edited:

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,531
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Glad you’re not my boss. Mine would negotiate and probably sort it out, rather than have a lot of pissed off employees who would give well less than 100%.

An awful lot of people would quite happily cancel leave at the moment, it's not like they can go anywhere! So the first step would be to ask people if they will cancel it, and I'd bet you will get lots of "yes", unless your industrial relations are so poor that people will say "no" just to be awkward, in which case there is quite some introspection to do.

What's likely to be more difficult is companies needing to potentially upset people by refusing to cancel now-useless leave.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,818
Location
Yorks
There's little doubt about that now. However there are an awful lot of people that won't survive financially if the IMF's forecasts for economic downturn are anywhere near accurate. Something like global economies shrinking by 30-40%, and 400-600 billion people worldwide thrown into poverty. Even though we have the pressing matter of dealing with the spread of the virus, these kind of forecasts will be taking more & more priority as the weeks press on. It could be seriously damaging in this country, but imagine the impact in poorer countries? I foresee mass movements of refugees in the coming years, which will only add even more pressure to those countries they seek to go to.



The US is the biggest worry of them all. In the UK we panic buy toilet roll, in the US they panic buy guns, cheered on by the NRA & the Trump administration. And the very same are going to want to punish someone sometime soon. If Trump survives the election (assuming he doesn't announce his dictatorship before then) I have a horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that they will be on the war path, literally.

I feel that President Xi is more of a worry for world affairs. Even before the outbreak he was pursuing a policy of belligerence towards his neighbours, with the man made islands in the south China sea and a worsening relationship with Taiwan as examples. At home, the grip of the state is becoming tighter - and lets not forget that Xi has managed to ferment civil unrest in Hong Kong on a scale not seen since the handover.

Unfortunately this crisis seems to be emboldening his position.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,531
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I feel that President Xi is more of a worry for world affairs. Even before the outbreak he was pursuing a policy of belligerence towards his neighbours, with the man made islands in the south China sea and a worsening relationship with Taiwan as examples. At home, the grip of the state is becoming tighter - and lets not forget that Xi has managed to ferment civil unrest in Hong Kong on a scale not seen since the handover.

Unfortunately this crisis seems to be emboldening his position.

I'm a bit more concerned that the US's rather idiotic policies towards CV will result in it being substantially weakened, allowing a power vacuum to form and China and Russia to be the only big superpowers.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
38,818
Location
Yorks
I'm a bit more concerned that the US's rather idiotic policies towards CV will result in it being substantially weakened, allowing a power vacuum to form and China and Russia to be the only big superpowers.

This is a risk. We could do with calm and considered policy making in the US and the West as a whole.

Unfortunately I fear that even with the best CV policies in the world, an economic weakening of the West would embolden the autharitarian powers.
 

Cowley

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
15 Apr 2016
Messages
15,686
Location
Devon
This is a risk. We could do with calm and considered policy making in the US and the West as a whole.

Unfortunately I fear that even with the best CV policies in the world, an economic weakening of the West would embolden the autharitarian powers.
It’s a bit awkward to separate the posts from this discussion but there’s a thread here that would be better for discussing what may happen in a wider global sense.
 

Greybeard33

Established Member
Joined
18 Feb 2012
Messages
4,229
Location
Greater Manchester
That may be the case but Professor Ferguson is just an advisor to the government. He is not a member of the government and, whilst qualified to comment on scientific matters, is not qualified to comment on the economic aspects of the lockdown and its subsequent lifting.
Indeed, Professor Ferguson is just a scientific advisor, but he has been one of the most influential advisors over the course of this pandemic, and all the politicians are continuing to insist that they will "follow the science". See, for example, the five tests that the First Secretary of State set out yesterday, which must be satisfied before the lockdown is relaxed:
While the government line remains that ministers will not publicly discuss an exit strategy on the grounds that it distracts from the current social distancing measures, Raab went the furthest he has in addressing the issue. The Foreign Secretary set out the criteria that would have to be met for any lockdown easing:

1) Evidence that the NHS can cope across the UK

2) A sustained fall in daily death rates

3) Evidence that the rate of infection is decreasing

4) Confidence that supplies of testing and PPE are able to meet demand

5) No risk of a second peak
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/dominic-raab-s-five-tests-for-easing-the-lockdown

Of course, forecasts of the economic effects of different policy options are themselves dependent on epidemiological modelling, which is Prof Ferguson's speciality. It seems clear that there is no appetite in government for a policy of rapid relaxation of social distancing restrictions. That would risk a huge second peak of infections (millions ill at the same time), which would overwhelm the NHS and so have unpredictable economic consequences.
 

Meerkat

Established Member
Joined
14 Jul 2018
Messages
7,416
I think the government will be very careful about being optimistic, to the extent that restriction reductions will be sudden and not pre-announced.
If they say “probably going to allow visiting friends/family soon” then lots of people will start doing that now - must be getting safer right??
 

Mogster

Member
Joined
25 Sep 2018
Messages
902
We desperately need the results of large antibody prevalence studies to decide if the current measures are appropriate.
 

Cardiff123

Established Member
Joined
10 Mar 2013
Messages
1,318
Meerkat said:
I think the government will be very careful about being optimistic, to the extent that restriction reductions will be sudden and not pre-announced.
If they say “probably going to allow visiting friends/family soon” then lots of people will start doing that now - must be getting safer right??

I know people who seriously believe that once this lockdown is over, life will rapidly return to pre-lockdown 'normal'. They are planning pub parties, foreign flights away etc. When I've pointed them in the direction of articles discussing the fact that social distancing measures (in varying degrees) are here to stay for up to 18 months to 2 years until a vaccine or effective drug treatments are available, along with possibly further lockdowns in the autumn/winter if virus cases see a resurgence, I've been accused of "not thinking positively" and spreading negativity and doom and gloom.

So I can understand why the government doesn't want to start talking openly about what life will look like post-lockdown, and why they've said that the current lockdown will last for 'at least' another 3 weeks, otherwise the general public will start making plans thinking after 3 weeks we'll all go back to normal life. Whilst i sympathise with extroverts, especially people who love socialising in large groups in pubs, people are going to have to adapt to and accept a new normal in social life up to 2022.
 
Last edited:

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,531
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
I think what I'd say with regard to socialising is that it's a very good job it's 2020 and not 1995 or earlier. The ability to socialise online has made it bearable for many, and without that I venture there would be far more suicides etc.

Imagine what the Spanish Flu must have been like.

At least as things stand pretty much everyone can still talk to the people they like to talk to, just not in person. What must it have been like for writing a letter to be the only way?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top