Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[yorksrob]

Even though the chart has 5 year gaps, the crash was at the back end of 2000 and there is clearly a lower growth 2000-2005 than the 5 years either side. Now, it would be rather simplistic to say that was wholly down to Hatfield, but it hardly disproves it.

Din't forget, the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, which will have affected the economy.

 

[HH]

Din't forget, the dot-com bubble burst in 2001, which will have affected the economy.

It affected London, yes, the rest of the country very little. But I said it wasn't all down to Hatfield. However, my point still stands - the figures don't prove that rail recovered quickly from Hatfield!

 

[yorksrob]

It affected London, yes, the rest of the country very little. But I said it wasn't all down to Hatfield. However, my point still stands - the figures don't prove that rail recovered quickly from Hatfield!

But how much of that was discretionary as opposed to commuter travel.

 

[HH]

But how much of that was discretionary as opposed to commuter travel.

How much of what? The Hatfield effect - mostly discretionary. I was only pointing out that leisure travel doesn't always recover quickly.

I've already given other reasons why commuter traffic will see a permanent fall. And business travel will see a hit too, for similar reasons (BTW these are not just my opinions; they're pretty much industry-wide from strategic thinkers).

 

[david1212]

I think work from home should increase, before this the arguments was around pollution emissions so if firms can do then they should.
The fact many haven't makes me wonder if the costs saved aren't massive or maybe it's a suspicion of not being able to keep an eye on what's going on!

Personally id imagine more work gets done at home as people have access to work 24/7.

I think the latter. Rental costs in London are huge (and you must take into account the cost of space for toilets, kitchens, meeting rooms, etc.) plus you have rates, maintenance, utility costs, cleaning, reception/post room staff, etc. The cost of these offices are astronomical!

For some will the balance be satellite offices in lower cost locations ? Employers can then monitor their staff far better than WFH.

The stark reality is some business particularly if already struggling are going to fail with in a year even if they resume in a couple of months so the offices become available. High Street shopping is only going to decline more so could the empty shops be converted into office suites either permanently let to one business or desks and terminals let by the day ? The latter is only one step on from where already staff do not have a permanent desk but just find a free one for their shift.

In terms of transport the total travel time would be similar to the time just to / from the local station. If big meetings can not be conducted using Zoom etc what was the long commute every day will only be occasional and probably to somewhere hired for the day.

 

[trebor79]

I don't think any of us really know what the long term impact is going to be.
Whilst I can see the rational for permanent increased working from home, it does have limitations. It's cost effective for sure, but there are efficiency penalties.
Before this situation, I had started thinking about looking for another job. I currently work from home and have done for a few years. I miss having colleagues, the work environment have it's much more difficult to just chuck ideas around and think aloud when working remotely. I can also find it hard to focus at home, and there is constant distraction from Mrs Trebor and kids at present. I was doing a trip to Sleaford once a week before lockdown and found the 2.5 hours each way on the train amongst my most productive hours in the week - bag a table and get a load of work done with little distraction.
Whilst I can see some of the more transactional roles having at least a proportion of home working in future, I suspect most will migrate back to the office. Plus for factories etc, they just can't be effectively run from a distance - management as well as front line staff will always be site based.

I think it's safe to say that there will be done permanent reductions in demand. How the industry responds will be interesting. Maybe more/better first class, perhaps with compartments as mobile office space. Or retrenchment and closure of done routes. My nightmare scenario is HS2 (to the extent it gets built), commuter routes around major cities and a few long distance routes retained with everything else gone. A Serpell + HS2 situation.
One thing I'm sure of is that talk of social distancing and 20% load factors to allow it is balony for anything other than the very short term. Might as well shut the railways completely in that case.

 

[JamesT]

Grant Shapps on Question Time last night was talking about Beeching reopenings, so at least some bits of government are still working on the assumption of a return to some sort of normality.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Grant Shapps on Question Time last night was talking about Beeching reopenings, so at least some bits of government are still working on the assumption of a return to some sort of normality.

I think it's quite possible that the railway will in various ways be used as a job creation exercise.

Quite possibly roadbuilding too.

 

[387star]

I think it's quite possible that the railway will in various ways be used as a job creation exercise.

Quite possibly roadbuilding too.

railways are our future and have never been more relevant, sweden has seen amazing growth thanks to flight shaming

 

[37424]

Grant Shapps on Question Time last night was talking about Beeching reopenings, so at least some bits of government are still working on the assumption of a return to some sort of normality.

But then he also seemed to think the economy was going to bounce back quickly and when the other people on the panel poured cold water on that he started back heeling.

I think any Beeching Reopenings will be little more than a token gesture maybe a couple of the less expensive schemes at best, one of which will have to be in the north he said cynically.

 

[HH]

For some will the balance be satellite offices in lower cost locations ? Employers can then monitor their staff far better than WFH.

The stark reality is some business particularly if already struggling are going to fail with in a year even if they resume in a couple of months so the offices become available. High Street shopping is only going to decline more so could the empty shops be converted into office suites either permanently let to one business or desks and terminals let by the day ? The latter is only one step on from where already staff do not have a permanent desk but just find a free one for their shift.

In terms of transport the total travel time would be similar to the time just to / from the local station. If big meetings can not be conducted using Zoom etc what was the long commute every day will only be occasional and probably to somewhere hired for the day.

The Barclays CEO mentioned using spare space in branches, so yes, I do think that in some cases (larger firms probably) satellite offices will be used. Indeed the possibility may increase the labour pool for some firms. Big meetings are one reason why there will still need to be some central office space, although I can see smaller firms transitioning to flexible, serviced offices for these.

 

[ruaival]

It is helpful to see debate - Commuters could be asked to check their temperature - about how a return to more travel by train could work in the New Normal yet I wonder how taking my temperature will protect fellow passengers in the days I am infectious between my own infection and Covid developing symptoms ?

 

[yorksrob]

Such a position wouldn't catch asymptomatic cases. Perhaps it might be worth commuters checking their temperature if they feel "a bit peaky" but otherwise I don't see much point.

 

[daodao]

Grant Shapps on Question Time last night was talking about Beeching reopenings, so at least some bits of government are still working on the assumption of a return to some sort of normality.

A number of passenger rail services are currently suspended, e.g. in NW England there are currently no passenger trains on several routes such as Carnforth-Hellifield, Ormskirk-Preston and Wilmslow-Heald Green/Airport. I suspect that certain lines may never re-open. In the past, when rail lines/tramways were closed due to line damage, strikes or for other reasons, it was not uncommon for services never to resume.

I would be interested in others' comments. I am uncertain at present as to which other lines with passenger train services are currently completely unserved.

 

[Monarch010]

Social distancing in the workplace has no impact on robots and AI solutions, so I think that companies will accelerate what is already a growing trend.

 

[Carlisle]

railways are our future and have never been more relevant,

You might be right, but I’d doubt many who’ve travelled on the trains in the last 6 weeks feel certain of that conclusion

 

[Bletchleyite]

A number of passenger rail services are currently suspended, e.g. in NW England there are currently no passenger trains on several routes such as Carnforth-Hellifield, Ormskirk-Preston and Wilmslow-Heald Green/Airport. I suspect that certain lines may never re-open. In the past, when rail lines/tramways were closed due to line damage, strikes or for other reasons, it was not uncommon for services never to resume.

I would be interested in others' comments. I am uncertain at present as to which other lines with passenger train services are currently completely unserved.

Marston Vale is another. That won't be withdrawn entirely, it would be an anathema to the whole EWR project to do that!

 

[Carlisle]

the whole EWR project

As you’ve already said, something like the above could be accelerated essentially as a job creation exercise or just as easily postponed or cancelled altogether if politicians in the new normal era deem funds are more urgently needed elsewhere

 

[Killingworth]

A number of passenger rail services are currently suspended, e.g. in NW England there are currently no passenger trains on several routes such as Carnforth-Hellifield, Ormskirk-Preston and Wilmslow-Heald Green/Airport. I suspect that certain lines may never re-open. In the past, when rail lines/tramways were closed due to line damage, strikes or for other reasons, it was not uncommon for services never to resume.

I would be interested in others' comments. I am uncertain at present as to which other lines with passenger train services are currently completely unserved.

Barton on Humber line is another suspended. An outpost of Northern all but isolated from the rest of their network previously operated with a 153 and borrowed 185s from TPE. Crewed by TPE on the times I used it.

 

[HH]

Such a position wouldn't catch asymptomatic cases. Perhaps it might be worth commuters checking their temperature if they feel "a bit peaky" but otherwise I don't see much point.

It feels another of those, "we must be seen to be doing something" responses.

 

[Bantamzen]

Such a position wouldn't catch asymptomatic cases. Perhaps it might be worth commuters checking their temperature if they feel "a bit peaky" but otherwise I don't see much point.

It feels another of those, "we must be seen to be doing something" responses.

It definitely has that kind of feel, a high temperature is not necessarily an indication of having a fever. You might have had to run for the train, it might just be a very hot day, there are many reasons why you might have a higher than average core temperature. Will someone with a higher temperature be stopped from getting onto a train because they've just ran to make a connection? And we have something like 2,500 stations across the country, is each one going to be manned with infrared readers?

I know this tech is being considered by airports, which might make a bit more sense as potentially rushing isn't so much an issue. But for the railways, it is just another problem to create more problems.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Your core temperature doesn't rise very much when you've run for a train, maybe half a degree, even if it's 40C out. It doesn't need to go up very much before you feel very, very ill. I run what feels very hot, and mine only seems to vary between 36 and 36.5 most of the time.

With regard to where, nothing in this is about absolutes, it's about reducing risk, so random checks will be enough to help. Though that does raise the question of what you do if you're "caught" away from home with a fever having developed since you left home/last checked.

 

[Bantamzen]

Your core temperature doesn't rise very much when you've run for a train, maybe half a degree, even if it's 40C out. It doesn't need to go up very much before you feel very, very ill. I run what feels very hot, and mine only seems to vary between 36 and 36.5 most of the time.

Ok, fair enough, that might not be so much of an issue.

With regard to where, nothing in this is about absolutes, it's about reducing risk, so random checks will be enough to help. Though that does raise the question of what you do if you're "caught" away from home with a fever having developed since you left home/last checked.

You've missed out a vital question, that is who would conduct the tests? If people are going to be prevented from travelling, and potentially sent to the naughty step that will have to be either the Police or military. Either way that's chewing up valuable resources that could be applied more effectively.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You've missed out a vital question, that is who would conduct the tests? If people are going to be prevented from travelling, and potentially sent to the naughty step that will have to be either the Police or military. Either way that's chewing up valuable resources that could be applied more effectively.

Railway staff can prevent you travelling because you don't have a valid ticket, so they could for something else. There does exist tech to automate this, though, used at some airports (Japan I believe does) - though I did manage once to sneak past their "health quarantine" with an absolutely stinking cold so it's not 100%.

BTP backup would clearly be needed, though, as well as a means of getting home if you're found you can't travel by rail at a destination rather than at home. It's not unreasonable in my book to say to a fare dodger "walk, then" - but it isn't reasonable to say it to someone who is potentially seriously ill. Though the risk of this will probably motivate people to check before leaving home, leaving only relatively few who develop a temperature during the day as a risk.

 

[bramling]

Railway staff can prevent you travelling because you don't have a valid ticket, so they could for something else.

Absolutely no way that's going to happen in practice.

 

[Belperpete]

I think any Beeching Reopenings will be little more than a token gesture maybe a couple of the less expensive schemes at best, one of which will have to be in the north he said cynically.

Well, hardly likely to be in the SE, as virtually nothing got shut!

 

[yorksrob]

Well, hardly likely to be in the SE, as virtually nothing got shut!

To be fair, Sussex got royally screwed over by the closure programme.

 

[MDB1images]

Lots more signage appearing around 2metre social distancing on stations, attached to station stantions and also stickers on platform floors.
At Carlisle hand sanitizer available attached to barriers before you go on platform.

 

[yorksrob]

Lots more signage appearing around 2metre social distancing on stations, attached to station stantions and also stickers on platform floors.
At Carlisle hand sanitizer available attached to barriers before you go on platform.

It will be interesting to see what the railway will look like !

 

[Bantamzen]

Railway staff can prevent you travelling because you don't have a valid ticket, so they could for something else. There does exist tech to automate this, though, used at some airports (Japan I believe does) - though I did manage once to sneak past their "health quarantine" with an absolutely stinking cold so it's not 100%.

BTP backup would clearly be needed, though, as well as a means of getting home if you're found you can't travel by rail at a destination rather than at home. It's not unreasonable in my book to say to a fare dodger "walk, then" - but it isn't reasonable to say it to someone who is potentially seriously ill. Though the risk of this will probably motivate people to check before leaving home, leaving only relatively few who develop a temperature during the day as a risk.

How would that work at all stations? Are you suggesting that the tech be installed, and monitored at every single station in the country, and that there be BTP at every single one to enforce? Hmmmm, I foresee a slight problem with that....