Long term social distancing: Impact on public life & public transport?

[al78]

OK, I think I am saying that as there is some relaxation, if there is, people should consider whether their aspiration for travel exceeds that of anyone else, whether by car or by public transport.

In my case, that will mean that I will keep travel to an absolute minimum which may well mean that I don't board a train again for many, many years and keep car use to a minimum because I feel that I can manage without travelling in the future (but I am accepting that others will have different needs).

In my case it is not an aspiration for travel, it is an aspiration to occasionally visit my family, who I am close too. Not everyone lives near to their family. My father is 86 years old, and saying I can't visit him for years, well he may not have years left to live.

 

[yorksrob]

Absolutely. It's completely impractical to expect people not to visit friends and family for years on end.

 

[westv]

Many cycling deaths in London are from left turning lorries at junctions, either when the cyclist has gone up the inside at traffic lights (which cycle lanes encourage), or the lorry has pulled alongside the cyclist. A cyclist can greatly reduce their risk of a serious injury or death by not going up this inside of large vehicles and by taking the lane (i.e. stop in the primary position, not next to the kerb).

On the motorway in my car I try to avoid being alongside lorries so I never understand why a cyclist would ever put themselves in that situation.

 

[JonathanH]

In my case it is not an aspiration for travel, it is an aspiration to occasionally visit my family, who I am close too. Not everyone lives near to their family. My father is 86 years old, and saying I can't visit him for years, well he may not have years left to live.

Yes, but that is my point. I agree that your need to travel is greater than someone who simply wants to travel for pleasure. Travelling to see family on an occasional basis is at the top of a hierarchy of possible needs to travel.

 

[Huntergreed]

I've seen over the last few days a sustained increase in social media posts like the following:

The population of Fort William is 10,459 and the current death toll in the UK is 31,587. That means that in the 100 days since the UK confirmed the first case of COVID19 there has been enough deaths to wipe the entire population of Fort William THREE TIMES OVER. To simplify it even more it’s taken roughly a MONTH to kill the ENTIRE population of Fort WIlliam.
It blows my mind that tourists are travelling to Fort William even now or that people are asking for the lockdown to be lifted. Please, please, PLEASE stay at home.

Whilst I accept that the death rate has been high, these people don't realise that in an average month in the UK can be up to 50,000. The ultimate goal of keeping the NHS capacity to a level where it can cope has been achieved and I fear that with the public view being so fearful as demonstrated by posts like the social media example above, even when lockdown is significantly lifted, until a vaccine comes out, a lot of workers from a wide range of industries will refuse to return or send their children to school, even with suitable social distancing requirements.

 

[ChrisC]

In my case it is not an aspiration for travel, it is an aspiration to occasionally visit my family, who I am close too. Not everyone lives near to their family. My father is 86 years old, and saying I can't visit him for years, well he may not have years left to live.

Completely agree. My mother is 85 and has dementia. Keeping her active and regular meetings with family and friends have helped to slow down the progression of her dementia. She has been living with me for the last few years and so I have been able to care for her during this lockdown. It has been a very stressful time for me too! She desperately needs to see my sister who lives about 40 miles away. She is used to seeing her once a week and staying with her for a few days each month to give me a break. At the age of 85 with dementia this may be her last summer that she will be able to enjoy.

 

[6862]

I've seen over the last few days a sustained increase in social media posts like the following:



Whilst I accept that the death rate has been high, these people don't realise that in an average month in the UK can be up to 50,000. The ultimate goal of keeping the NHS capacity to a level where it can cope has been achieved and I fear that with the public view being so fearful as demonstrated by posts like the social media example above, even when lockdown is significantly lifted, until a vaccine comes out, a lot of workers from a wide range of industries will refuse to return or send their children to school, even with suitable social distancing requirements.

Agreed - as a society we have become used to living lives with minimal risk of death, due in part to our excellent NHS, and in part due to rising living standards generally. We need to realise that, sadly, death is an inevitable part of life which has been happening on a massive scale even before the coronavirus. This is not to say that we should not attempt to prevent the spread of the virus and save lives, but rather that it is not helpful when people spread statistics such as saying we've effectively killed off the population of Fort William 3 times over.

 

[underbank]

until a vaccine comes out, a lot of workers from a wide range of industries will refuse to return or send their children to school, even with suitable social distancing requirements.

Then they need to bear the consequences of their actions, whether it be redundancy or their kids not getting good qualifications and a good career. They're only risking their own/their children's futures.

 

[Esker-pades]

I've seen over the last few days a sustained increase in social media posts like the following:



Whilst I accept that the death rate has been high, these people don't realise that in an average month in the UK can be up to 50,000. The ultimate goal of keeping the NHS capacity to a level where it can cope has been achieved and I fear that with the public view being so fearful as demonstrated by posts like the social media example above, even when lockdown is significantly lifted, until a vaccine comes out, a lot of workers from a wide range of industries will refuse to return or send their children to school, even with suitable social distancing requirements.

Check the graphs on excess deaths and look at the spikes. And this is with the all the measures that have been put in place. Without such measures, the situation would be a lot worse.

Check the disparity between England and the rest of the UK. Allowing people to just go on holiday to Fort William will bring RoUK up to England's levels.

 

[al78]

Agreed - as a society we have become used to living lives with minimal risk of death, due in part to our excellent NHS, and in part due to rising living standards generally. We need to realise that, sadly, death is an inevitable part of life which has been happening on a massive scale even before the coronavirus. This is not to say that we should not attempt to prevent the spread of the virus and save lives, but rather that it is not helpful when people spread statistics such as saying we've effectively killed off the population of Fort William 3 times over.

The point is not to eliminate death, the point is that COVID19 is affecting thousands of people above the baseline number of people needing medical attention, it is not either-or, and the idea is to have the rate of extra people coming into hospital because of COVID19 low enough that the NHS can handle the extra load. If you have a system that is close to saturation, it doesn't take much to push it over the edge, think of the rail network at peak time and a brief cold snap bringing snow and ice, it has a ripple effect that causes widespread disruption and takes hours to get back to normal.

I agree with your last sentence. When talking on a national scale, it is easy to dramatise, because all numbers are big, whether it comes to population statistics or financial budgets. It can help to quote figures in a relative, not absolute sense.

 

[al78]

On the motorway in my car I try to avoid being alongside lorries so I never understand why a cyclist would ever put themselves in that situation.

This is getting OTT, but I think it is a comnbination of ignorance and impatience, both from cyclists and drivers. One advantage of cycling in urban heavy traffic is the ability to filter through congestion and make progress. This is fine as long as you keep alert as to the hazards, such as someone flashing an oncoming driver to let them turn across them into a side road. Cycle lanes are nearly always painted along the kerb, so inexperienced cyclists think that is where they should cycle, and they falsely believe it is safer. This is amplified with advanced stop lines for cyclists which are fed by a kerb hugging cycle lane. Most people haven't been in a lorry cab and don't appreciate the blind spots. Even taking the lane at a junction is not guarenteed to work, if a lorry stops right behind you, you are out of sight of the driver, and if that driver forgets you are there and sets off at normal speed, game over.

 

[Killingworth]

Completely agree. My mother is 85 and has dementia. Keeping her active and regular meetings with family and friends have helped to slow down the progression of her dementia. She has been living with me for the last few years and so I have been able to care for her during this lockdown. It has been a very stressful time for me too! She desperately needs to see my sister who lives about 40 miles away. She is used to seeing her once a week and staying with her for a few days each month to give me a break. At the age of 85 with dementia this may be her last summer that she will be able to enjoy.

This is an alien concept to a very large proportion of the population who have little or no contact with those unable to care easily for themselves, be they in care homes, looked after by relatives, or struggling on their own. Many are not even old, but the withdrawal of contact with friends and family takes away one of the very few things that make life worth living.

My own mother spent her final 4 years in a nursing home of which the first 3 were tolerable, although the final year was probably not. I tried to visit for at least half an hour each day. She never learned the names of other residents or staff, largely due to the very high staff turnover rate. 6 months was about the longest most stayed. Nice enough people but they worked different floors and corridors each shift. A recurring comment I got when I called in was "I don't want to be a nuisance", once after I'd found her top set of teeth under the bed where they must have been all day. She hadn't wanted to make a fuss.

COVID-19 isn't directly killing many of the vulnerable. Lack of warm human friendly contact is the final straw that makes older people finally give up. It won't go on the death certificate

 

[al78]

This is an alien concept to a very large proportion of the population who have little or no contact with those unable to care easily for themselves, be they in care homes, looked after by relatives, or struggling on their own. Many are not even old, but the withdrawal of contact with friends and family takes away one of the very few things that make life worth living.

My own mother spent her final 4 years in a nursing home of which the first 3 were tolerable, although the final year was probably not. I tried to visit for at least half an hour each day. She never learned the names of other residents or staff, largely due to the very high staff turnover rate. 6 months was about the longest most stayed. Nice enough people but they worked different floors and corridors each shift. A recurring comment I got when I called in was "I don't want to be a nuisance", once after I'd found her top set of teeth under the bed where they must have been all day. She hadn't wanted to make a fuss.

COVID-19 isn't directly killing many of the vulnerable. Lack of warm human friendly contact is the final straw that makes older people finally give up. It won't go on the death certificate

Is it really a large proportion of the population? If anything, I'd have thought a large proportion of the population would have, or have had, experience of caring for elderly relatives. Since moving to the SE 18 years ago, in my social circles, there seemed to be many people who were carers for their parents or partners, which was a restriction on their social activities. I wonder if the high COVID death toll in the UK is at least partially because we have a lot of frail elderly people, many or most who have relatives that attend to them in some capacity.

 

[Killingworth]

Is it really a large proportion of the population? If anything, I'd have thought a large proportion of the population would have, or have had, experience of caring for elderly relatives. Since moving to the SE 18 years ago, in my social circles, there seemed to be many people who were carers for their parents or partners, which was a restriction on their social activities. I wonder if the high COVID death toll in the UK is at least partially because we have a lot of frail elderly people, many or most who have relatives that attend to them in some capacity.

OK, but precise proportions are largely academic. My point is exactly al78's last sentence. It's contact with nearest and dearest that gives the elderly, and infirm of all ages, the will to carry on. Withdraw it and they slowly lose that will, and the frailer they were the sooner that point becomes terminal. The extra pressures put on those providing care, be it in care homes or privately, must be unhelpful, so it's not surprising that the death rates from non-COVID causes has risen.

When arranging care for my mother I looked at statistics and for someone of her age and condition it was calculated that we should expect to need funding for just under 3 years. Achieving 4 was a success, of sorts. At that time of life it doesn't take much to move those final days a little one way or the other and absence or presence of loving human contact is one of the major factors.

 

[Bungle73]

Realistically, the transport network is going to be prioritised towards essential travel for some time. Clearly it going to take a bit of time before travel is unrestricted even if people can travel a bit more locally after an initial level of lockdown easement.

In the normal course of events, there is less essential travel at the weekend and during off-peak times so, in time, there could presumably be some capacity for travel which is not essential but it is going to have to be limited.

I'd like to think that people don't consider themselves stranded just because they can't travel long distances or use transport - there is virtue in people exploring and walking in their own area, seeing things not noted before. There is always something new of notice, even within an hour or so of people's front door.

I think this is great https://www.lner.co.uk/our-destinations/travel-inspiration/virtual-days-out/ - providing virtual experience of days out in the current circumstances - yes, I know it isn't visiting in person but the experience of being taken through the gardens at Kew https://www.kew.org/about-us/virtual-kew-wakehurst or the British Museum https://britishmuseum.withgoogle.com/ is the next best thing to visiting. This sort of thing, with donations, is how attractions are going to have to adapt to survive.

By depriving people of their own means of getting anywhere that IS leaving them stranded. Without access to public transport I can basically go nowhere. It's all very suggesting people explore their local area, but than can only last so long. Where I live the nearest places of interested all require some form of transport to get to anyway

ATM I have zero friends, zero social life and no full time job. Without my trips that's a large proportion of my life, and what is sustaining my mental health (which I've had problems with), removed. I'm sure there must others in the same or similar positions. I do have some bicycles, on which my daily(ish) rides have been keeping me sane during the lockdown, but that is not going to be enough in the long term.

 

[Bikeman78]

Many cycling deaths in London are from left turning lorries at junctions, either when the cyclist has gone up the inside at traffic lights (which cycle lanes encourage), or the lorry has pulled alongside the cyclist. A cyclist can greatly reduce their risk of a serious injury or death by not going up this inside of large vehicles and by taking the lane (i.e. stop in the primary position, not next to the kerb).

At traffic lights I stop far enough forward that I can the driver's face so they should be able to see me. I've had a number of close shaves with lorries over the years. They come past in the next lane just before a junction and cut across forcing me to stop. Most just carry on but some panic and slam on the brakes if they lose sight of me!

 

[CaledonianBlue]

As well as the issue of legality, there is a question of whether travelling by train would be safe - while you may not relish a long car journey, I wonder if a long train journey (or series of journey legss) would be abnormally stressful, in terms of feeling out of control if you end up trapped in a queue or people crowding close to you or someone sitting down to close to you unexpectedly, at every station or interchange point.

 

[yorksrob]

As well as the issue of legality, there is a question of whether travelling by train would be safe - while you may not relish a long car journey, I wonder if a long train journey (or serious of journeys) would be abnormally stressful, in terms of feeling out of control if you end up trapped in a queue or people crowding close to you or someone sitting down to close to you unexpectedly.

Personally I can't imagine it being any more stressful than dodging people in the supermarket.

 

[317 forever]

There needs to be a balance struck, otherwise the system is discriminating against non-car owners and that's not acceptable at all. I imagine it'll be a careful combination of compulsory reservations, face masks and perhaps restricting it to essential work travel (with proof required through showing a letter/ID badge) during peak hours to prevent too much overcrowding

In Paris they have or had requirements for people to prove travel essential in peak hours, for example by having their contract of employment with them, but freedom to travel off-peak. This is a good balance.

 

[yorksrob]

In Paris they have or had requirements for people to prove travel essential in peak hours, for example by having their contract of employment with them, but freedom to travel off-peak. This is a good balance.

Absolutely.

When will the idiots in charge here see !

 

[317 forever]

By depriving people of their own means of getting anywhere that IS leaving them stranded. Without access to public transport I can basically go nowhere. It's all very suggesting people explore their local area, but than can only last so long. Where I live the nearest places of interested all require some form of transport to get to anyway

ATM I have zero friends, zero social life and no full time job. Without my trips that's a large proportion of my life, and what is sustaining my mental health (which I've had problems with), removed. I'm sure there must others in the same or similar positions. I do have some bicycles, on which my daily(ish) rides have been keeping me sane during the lockdown, but that is not going to be enough in the long term.

This idea that people can drive to places but non-drivers are not supposed to use public transport creates a glaring anomaly whereby car owners are treated to mobility but non car owners are not.

At least once leisure and hospitality reopens, currently suggested for July, it should be morally reasonable to have bus and train trips again, at least off-peak.

 

[yorkie]

Non car drivers are allowed to use public transport; it's just that there is encouragement not to.

It's not an anomaly of entitlement.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Non car drivers are allowed to use public transport; it's just that there is encouragement not to.

It's not an anomaly of entitlement.

Has enforcement by BTP of essential journeys ceased as it mostly[1] has by car?

[1] I was alarmed to read yesterday of Police still stopping people on the way to Brighton yesterday.

 

[yorksrob]

Has enforcement by BTP of essential journeys ceased as it mostly[1] has by car?

[1] I was alarmed to read yesterday of Police still stopping people on the way to Brighton yesterday.

Is there a link to an article for this BTW?

 

[LowLevel]

Has enforcement by BTP of essential journeys ceased as it mostly[1] has by car?

[1] I was alarmed to read yesterday of Police still stopping people on the way to Brighton yesterday.

It hasn't exactly ceased. They're still turning up to nab drug runners and so on. I've noticed a definite upturn but it's still quiet. The phase where they're randomly stopping people on stations has ceased though I think.

People are generally being sensible though the policy should a train get busy is to inform control and leave the punters to it, they have the ultimate discretion to leave.

The exception being if traincrew can't carry out their duties while social distancing in which case it is generally understood that they will refuse to carry them out until the persons involved move or are removed. I won't be working with anyone travelling in the vestibule from which I need to operate the doors for example.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is there a link to an article for this BTW?

Here's one: https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18454999.police-perform-stop-checks-cars-coming-brighton/

It strikes me that they were acting rather outside their remit - and in doing so not maintaining social distance either.

 

[yorksrob]

Here's one: https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18454999.police-perform-stop-checks-cars-coming-brighton/

It strikes me that they were acting rather outside their remit - and in doing so not maintaining social distance either.

Thanks for posting.

Yes, it does seem rather out of step with the publicised rules !

 

[37424]

Thanks for posting.

Yes, it does seem rather out of step with the publicised rules !

Indeed but the whole situation I think is unsatisfactory because the government have relaxed the rules but many residents and local councils don't want people to travel to beauty spots or seaside towns etc. I had a trip out on on to moors fairly near to where I live on Thursday but found that most car parks and even some laybys were blocked off and closed. I don't think they should have changed the rules on exercising locally at this stage, having said that I think my trip out did improve my mental health somewhat.

If you don't have a car then it would seem you are at a disadvantage at present because the message on public transport still appears to be don't travel unless your journey is essential, which given the supposidly safe capacity of a 2 car 156/158 is now reduced to around 30 is perhaps not surprising.

 

[yorkie]

Has enforcement by BTP of essential journeys ceased as it mostly[1] has by car?

[1] I was alarmed to read yesterday of Police still stopping people on the way to Brighton yesterday.

I was also a bit surprised to hear that but we don't know what was said; they cannot stop people travelling for an allowed reason (and the list of valid reasons is greater now than it was before; so you can be travelling to meet a friend for example!) but if they are advising people of the practicalities, such as facilities being closed/unavailable and asking people to reconsider, then that's perhaps not a bad thing. I'd be curious to hear what was said.

 

[111-111-1]

Non car drivers are allowed to use public transport; it's just that there is encouragement not to.

It's not an anomaly of entitlement.

Has enforcement by BTP of essential journeys ceased as it mostly[1] has by car?

[1] I was alarmed to read yesterday of Police still stopping people on the way to Brighton yesterday.

Public transport should only be used for essential/work journeys not leisure journeys. That must stay at present to help maintain social distancing for those who must travel on public transport.

Unfortunately the Government has dropped a major clanger allowing,virtually, free travel for exercise. A far more sensible approach would have been a 15 or 20 mile limit which would allow even those living in the centre of big cities to get into the countryside.