Thanks for all the replies!
I welcome having what I write TESTED by people disagreeing with me.
Closure of the Dunstable to Luton branch line
The comment on the restricted size of the catchment area (34,000 population) appears to fit in well with an earlier posting at
http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=36778
saying that the Dunstable line has only one stop along it over the 5-mile length.
[BUT bear in mind that the population within the catchment area of the Manningtree to Harwich line in Essex is only 30,000 and the population within the catchment area of the Marks Tey to Sudbury line along Essex – Suffolk border area is cia 20,000.]
The article on the BBC web site about the Dunstable to Luton branch line
http://www.bbc.co.uk/threecounties/content/articles/2008/10/27/beeching_feature.shtml
noted that the formation was poorly situated to serve the conurbation and the stations were at either end of the town.
The Dunstable to Hatfield line had poor services
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=267855&id=114408429930&ref=mf
and there were no timetable arrangements or facilities at stations to provide any coordination with local bus services run by United Counties (or London Country around Wheathampstead) in order to overcome this.
Hence it is believable that the line wasn’t well – used.
Implications of any reinstatement and reopening
The formation of the Dunstable to Luton branch line runs along the southern edge of the conurbation and since the line closed the centre of gravity of new development has moved radically northwards.
Moreover the town of Houghton Regis cannot be served by any rail – based option because the track along the mineral railway (which ran to APCM Cement works) was lifted in the 1990s, so the population can be excluded from the catchment area of the branch line.
Although a new location for a potential station (created by development in the early 2000s) now exists at Court Road land available for car parking in the vicinity of this location and the site of Dunstable Town station at Church Street – Station Road would be limited.
Road links between Houghton Regis and Court Road are very circuitous and as has been said most people can drive from Houghton Regis and Northern Dunstable to Leagrave station on the Midland Main Line.
My ideas
Bearing in mind the factors noted above and a letter I received from ‘Go-East’ (the government office for Eastern England) in July 2010 I DO NOT intend to ‘PARROT’ failed rail re – opening proposals.
The guided bus way
The Luton guided bus way is extremely controversial – look at what has been said about it at this forum and others, and on the Wall discussions of the Face book Group ‘Don’t let Dunstable Die’.
I among others have often wondered what effect this would have on levels of patronage….
It has to be pointed out that the guided bus way does serve Houghton Regis (alone of all the transport development options for the Dunstable to Luton disused railway corridor), from the point of view of rail access between Dunstable and Luton the guide way merely provides a route to the main Luton station and Luton Airport – it does not serve Leagrave and hence has no effect on traffic travelling between Northern Dunstable and Houghton Regis and Leagrave station at all.
BUT the cost is VERY high indeed - £89 million, funded by a £80 million grant from central government and a £9 million local contribution – BUT some estimates have been in to the £90s.
My proposals
In these cash – strapped times it appears possible to substantially reduce the cost of the guided bus way by removing the length that duplicates the A5065 relief road, which could be replaced by bus lanes to North and South of Hatters Way. These could also carry buses running to and from the Bushwood Development (unlike the guide way at this stretch).
The guide way between Skimpot Road, Church Street, Court Road (Dunstable) and Blackburn Road (Houghton Regis) WOULD be retained, because it provides a bus – only link NOT provided by existing roads.
BUT removal of the guide way North of A5065 Hatters Way would allow the formation of the disused railway line to North of Hatters Way to be retained. This could be linked via a slewed bridge across Skimpot Road to a diverted formation to South – South/West - West of the guide way beside Blows Down.
A station at Court Road would provide a closer railhead to Northern and western Dunstable than Leagrave, and buses running to and from the guided bus way could be coordinated to bring passengers to and from the train services.
The coordinated service
The station at Court Road would provide a closer railhead to the area than Leagrave station and the coordinated bus – rail link between Northern Dunstable – Houghton Regis – Court Road and London would offer a shorter road journey to and from the railhead. Because it depended on coordinated bus and rail services there would be no increase in congestion in Dunstable and car-parking problems would be overcome.
Catchment area
In answer to the postings about the catchment area of the Dunstable line and the number of stops en route, it appears that the guided bus way from Court Road (Dunstable) to Blackburn Road (Houghton Regis) would bring the town of Houghton Regis (POP ) in to the catchment area of the Dunstable to Luton branch line because buses running to and from the guided bus way could be coordinated to bring passengers to and from the train services.
Moreover the catchment area could be widened by application of the same principle - to the coordination between the restored train services and bus services between other areas of Dunstable and nearby villages to and from the guided bus way.
The effect could be to add x thousand to the catchment area of the Dunstable to Luton railway line equivalent to several stops.
Funding implications for the guided bus way
Concerning bus way funding, the very high cost of the guided bus way would fall and the reduction in the cost would be incremented still further by the proceeds from the sale of the railway undertaking. BUT I do not know what the procedure for approving this change would be.
Costing of the rail link
Costings for reopening of the Dunstable to Luton railway line as a stand-alone operation vary from £5 million to £36 million.
Judging by their position during the negotiations over the Cambridge to St Ives line, in any retention or reinstatement operation along the Dunstable to Luton line Network Rail would want to secure the best possible infrastructure along the line – involving widespread track renewals etc.
The costing of the retention of the Dunstable to Luton rail link beside the guided bus way can be divided in to two stages: -
1. Land and legal costs those works involving Luton Borough Council prior to sale or agreed works executed by the council after sale
A. Legal
Transfer of railway powers in 1855 Luton Dunstable and Welwyn Junction Railway Act from Luton Borough Council to Network Rail
B. Land
Owned by Luton Borough Council
1. Around Midland Main Line
2. Between Bute Street and Telford Road Bridge
3. North of A5065 Hatters Way
Acquired and developed by Luton Borough Council
1. Alongside Blows Down
2. Alongside Kingsway
C. Agreed works
1. Rail bridges in Luton (Guildford Street, New Bedford Road, Dunstable Road, Kingsway)
2. Realigned bridge across Skimpot Road
3. Widened bridge across Church Street
4. Level Crossings carrying bus way access roads leading to Long Hedges Road and to and from Church Street
2. Those works involving Network Rail
1. New track
2. New signalling
3. Platforms and facilities at the stations at Bute Street and Tolland Close (Luton) Court Road (Dunstable)
4. Bridges and so on to give access to the Midland Main Line
Funding implications for the rail link
I am not clear about how Network Rail funds rail upgrades etc or what the procedure is (NOTE the recent rail upgrades announced – how will they fund these and how did they process and approve applications anyone?)
I think we need to discover this BEFORE we can comment on the Dunstable to Luton line.
Midland Main Line capacity
There would be no impact on MML capacity, as it has always been proposed by Dunstable Town Council and ADAPT that existing Thameslink services, which terminate at Luton, would be extended to and from Dunstable.
Midland Main Line upgrade
As there is to be a major rail investment programme maybe the Dunstable to Luton line could fit on behind that?