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Mandatory 14 day quarantine to be introduced in the UK from 08/06/2020

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Bletchleyite

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I agree it is much easier here to keep a lid on things- with one port and one airport, it's not like you can really sneak in or out. But many of the principles that have worked here- closing the border, enforcing the lockdown with proper rules rather than the English ones which seemingly allow you to drive 30 miles to test your eyesight- could have worked in the UK. I think shutting the border was the main one, but we have people in prison for breaching lockdown rules, which did focus a few minds.

No, rank hypocrisy is what allows that - it's very clear the lockdown didn't.

Apart from a "wobble" which probably related to the initial not-quite-lockdown, our down curve has been similar to (and at times slightly steeper than) Italy, which would suggest that a stricter lockdown was not necessary.
 
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Bantamzen

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I imagine as a result we (the UK) will be sat spending an entire summer watching Europe go off on their summer holidays whilst we're still subject to travel restrictions...

Not necessarily, Germany has already indicated that they intend to open their borders to all EU countries & the UK in the middle of next month, and both Spain & Greece are making noises that they will be allowing UK tourists in from sometime in July.
 

JamesT

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What is the science behind this, though? It makes some sort of logical sense for low-infection areas such as New Zealand (or indeed IoM) to maintain that status until the rest of the World aligns, but how does that work for a country like the UK which has had such a high number of deaths above norm, and whose R-rate is suggested to be, in places, still above 1, and which has had no restrictions on arrivals and transits during, to invoke quarantine restrictions after the peak?

When you've got thousands or tens of thousands of infections happening every day within the country, a few hundred imported cases get lost in the noise.
If we've managed to get the spread down such that it's manageable to track and trace every new case, then restricting the import of cases becomes a worthwhile thing to do.
We may have missed the boat the first time round, but measures like this could make a second peak less likely.
 

Bantamzen

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When you've got thousands or tens of thousands of infections happening every day within the country, a few hundred imported cases get lost in the noise.
If we've managed to get the spread down such that it's manageable to track and trace every new case, then restricting the import of cases becomes a worthwhile thing to do.
We may have missed the boat the first time round, but measures like this could make a second peak less likely.

Another measure would be to target flights coming in from higher risk areas, with perhaps flights from countries with the highest levels being suspended. Sure some people might try to circumvent such measures by combining a number of flights to appear to be arriving from a low risk country, however many countries are already applying restrictions from some countries so this risk reduces.
 

FQTV

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When you've got thousands or tens of thousands of infections happening every day within the country, a few hundred imported cases get lost in the noise.
If we've managed to get the spread down such that it's manageable to track and trace every new case, then restricting the import of cases becomes a worthwhile thing to do.
We may have missed the boat the first time round, but measures like this could make a second peak less likely.

That still does seem very hypothetical, though. Is there any empirical proof at all that this kind of strategy has worked before? Is there much confidence that an administration that has so consistently mis-stepped could make it work if there was evidential support for it?

Since UK track and trace plans, if and when they get going, will be nothing like those applied in (for example) South Korea and Hong Kong, it provides even less evidence (that I can find so far) to suggest that the UK quarantine plan is anything more than political blustering.

The travel industry doesn't think it's going to work; I suspect that the police won't be able to enforce it; I'm not hearing medics vocally supporting it and I can't find any research backing it - so what is it for? It seems like a bloke down the pub thinks it sounds feasible at best, and at worst, again, it's just politicking.
 
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....... Given the UK death and infection rate is far higher than the rest of Europe......

It isn’t on either count.
Whilst acknowledging that a number of European countries have not yet been able to publish comprehensive Covid death statistics, covering all scenarios (e.g. Italy and Spain), the U.K. currently is near the top, but not the highest in death and infection rates, i.e. pro rata to the population.
 

FQTV

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Only Spain and Belgium are higher than the UK in terms of reported deaths per million of population, and once you strip out anomalies like Luxembourg, Andorra and San Marino, the European countries with larger numbers of reported infections per million of population have also tested a far greater proprtion of the population than the UK.

However, the slower-to-gather data on excess mortality seems to be steadily placing England in particular as a significant outlier in terms of deaths above the normal rate.

Assuming that no European countries experience a second peak in the short term, it's a challenge not to begin to infer that relatively lower levels of UK testing and variations in the descriptions on UK death certificates aren't ultimately going to divert from the UK having been hit harder than most, if not all, other European countries.

There will be other variables too, such as baseline levels of health across the population, and average ages and levels of fitness, but on that basis one might hypothesise that (say) Scotland would be in a worse position than it appears to be.
 

stevetay3

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I have just been reading the list up thread, so many exemptions, will there be much point having isolation for the remaining few on the same aircraft.
 

Silverlinky

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The figures have reflected deaths across all environments since the end of March/beginning of April (can't remember the exact date), but those outside of hospitals were not included before then, That is why the ONS figure is around 8000-9000 higher than the official government figures.
 
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If you factor in the fact that the UK don't report non-hospital deaths, whereas everyone else does, I would respectfully disagree.

Sorry, I'll respectfully say that you're talking absolute rubbish.
The systems for reporting and registrations of deaths vary across different countries in Europe.
Many of them do not register and report at a national level and the data is normally only held at regional, or state level.

For example, Italy cannot give a national figure for the total non-hospital deaths, because registrations take place at local level and even that data takes time to percolate to regional level.
The vast majority of deaths in care homes in Italy, resulting from or associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, have not been included in the officially published national death toll for Covid-19, which reports hospital deaths with a positive test.
At the height of the outbreak, there were very high numbers of deaths of the elderly in care homes, mostly in the north of the country, but almost no testing and no autopsies to ascertain whether Covid-19 was a factor.
It will take time for the excess deaths statistics to be fully collated and analysed before they can have a reasonable idea of how many deaths were caused by, or affected by the virus.
However, there is some doubt in Italy, that it will ever be fully possible to find out the real numbers.

There are similar issues in Spain with acquiring accurate data on non-hospital and care home deaths. Some adjustment and updating of the data has been taking place over the last week or so.
From what I can gather, even in Germany, the headline figure is under reading as data on non-hospital deaths is dealt with at regional level; although much lower than other European countries with large populations.

Hats off to Belgium for reporting all deaths related to the virus (Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate), both in hospitals and the community.
Sadly, Belgium is the hardest hit country in Europe, with the highest death toll per capita. Way higher than Spain, UK and Italy in that order, although those rankings should change once/if full data can be gathered and analysed.

In the UK, the daily figures have included deaths in all scenarios (hospital and in the community - care homes etc,), where a positive test has indicated Covid-19 was present, for some time now.
The rest of the data will catch up over time, as well explained by the government scientists and advisors at the daily briefings.
The UK is currently giving a much fuller picture than some of our near neighbours have been giving.

 
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Scrotnig

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The figures have reflected deaths across all environments since the end of March/beginning of April (can't remember the exact date), but those outside of hospitals were not included before then, That is why the ONS figure is around 8000-9000 higher than the official government figures.
I don’t know where the ONS discrepancy comes from because once we started including non hospital deaths in the daily figures, the figures from previous periods were retrospectively added in. So that “headline” figure of 35,000 deaths (or whatever it currently is) actually includes them all. Theoretically.

As has been stated by others, we are pretty up front about the figures now, more so than many other European countries, so we probably look a lot worse than we really are by comparison.
 

yorkie

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The government is planning to relax its travel quarantine rules in early July for some countries.

UK officials are talking to their counterparts in Portugal, France, Italy, Greece and Spain.

However, the UK hopes to make an announcement on 29 June that it has secured a number of "travel corridors".

The government had previously said that the quarantine would be reviewed every three weeks and 29 June marks the end of the first three-week period.

A travel corridor would mean that two people travelling in both directions between two countries would not have to self-isolate after they travel.

The first travel corridors could come into force on 4 July, although that date is by no means confirmed.
This is positive news.
 

Domh245

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I do. We need to impose it and keep it imposed until there's a vaccine, at which point we impose a mandatory vaccination check like Yellow Fever.

If we don't, as our cases drop we'll keep importing them.

That assumes that we do actually manage to import them - a valid concern if you were talking about the US or Brazil, but the countries which they're looking to set up 'travel corridors' with have low levels of the virus (or at least, similar to ours) - the odds of importing a case from Italy are as likely as importing a case from going to the Dales.
 

NorthOxonian

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This is positive news.

Not convinced it is. It seems like the government have capitulated to the aviation lobby and those who want to go on holiday abroad. We should have been encouraging people to stay in this country this summer, giving our own tourist industry a much needed boost.
 

LAX54

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I do. We need to impose it and keep it imposed until there's a vaccine, at which point we impose a mandatory vaccination check like Yellow Fever.

If we don't, as our cases drop we'll keep importing them.

It is never going away, I am sure that has already been stated, there may also not be a vaccine either, you will never keep a virus out of the Country, the longer we lock away, the longer the it will take to get used the the virus. all of life is a risk, avoid it, then there is no point living
 

FQTV

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This is positive news.

I’d suggest that I t’s nothing more than clickbait speculative twaddle, part of the spinning to prepare for the abandoning of the U.K. quarantine, which is itself about as effective as the track and trace app.

I’m fully expecting that, on the day that quarantine is ditched and air bridge negotiations are airbrushed out of the narrative, we’ll announce:

1. a new passing loop at Castleton Moor (cruelly shut by that Remoaner Taking-The-Knee Churchill-Basher Beeching),

2. renaming The Overground as The Dame Vera Line, and

3. Norman Foster will release designs for a new Royal Yacht Britannia, whose home port will be Boris Island Quayside, which the Home Office/DfT press release map shows to be on a new branch of the East West Rail at Newton Aycliffe near Skelmersdale, which

4. Tracey from Facebook will share three hundred and forty thousand times to blue wallers because she’s #clappingforboris

More factually, Spain is still, reportedly, considering imposing quarantine on UK arrivals from Sunday; France imposed them purely because of our quarantine; Spain is maintaining border closure with Portugal (at Portugal’s request) until at least two weeks after they open to other countries; Italy is already open and Greece back-tracked on opening to us.

Other countries are establishing air bridges, just not with us.
 

edwin_m

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It is never going away, I am sure that has already been stated, there may also not be a vaccine either, you will never keep a virus out of the Country, the longer we lock away, the longer the it will take to get used the the virus. all of life is a risk, avoid it, then there is no point living
If properly managed (bring down the numbers and track/trace any cases that appear) then it can become a relatively minor inconvenience in our lives. But I don't believe the numbers or the track/trace capability are anywhere near those levels yet.
2. renaming The Overground as The Dame Vera Line
Hmmm. "We'll meet again don't know where don't know when" perhaps isn't the best slogan to promote service reliability.
 

Chester1

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Not convinced it is. It seems like the government have capitulated to the aviation lobby and those who want to go on holiday abroad. We should have been encouraging people to stay in this country this summer, giving our own tourist industry a much needed boost.

There are two flaws to this argument that have been done to death but keeps coming up both on this site and society in general, probably because it appeals to rose tinted views of the past.

The vast majority of UK tourism revenue is from Brits and the industry runs at capacity during a normal school summer holiday despite the number of Brits who go abroad. Trying to trap people in the UK will result in massive price hikes and many families being unable to either find any accomodation or afford what is left. Selectively removing the quarantine and advising that travel to specific countries is safe will reduce an impending UK capacity shortage rather than remove it.

The biggest problems is safety. How an earth are UK hotels, campsites, beach etc supposed to maintain social distancing while coping with huge demand? Especially with residents of a country that has a relatively high rate of infection. Its safer to let Brits holiday in countries with lower rates of infection despite the lack of international contact tracing.

I support keeping the quarantine in place for as long as the pandemic lasts but only for countries with high rates of infection or where repatriation in the event of an outbreak would be very difficult.

Any UK citizen or resident can fly to Italy now if they are prepared to take more financial risk than normal and rely on the EHIC for healthcare. If they are retired or are working from home full time then a 14 day quarantine is practical. If by August even 1 in 10 people who normal go on holiday abroad in the summer do despite the quarantine there will be huge anger and nothing the government can do to stop them.
 

Huntergreed

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Not good news I don’t fancy getting a swab up my nose on arrival to UK. How will they enforce this?
That article is worrying if true, and it’s certainly not going to help us restore the economy in any way, as people just won’t go out if they’re facing such limiting restrictions, as it’s just not enjoyable. If this is true then I fear for the future of this country, but I hope and pray it’s just media scaremongering, as many of these stories have been before.
 

Gadget88

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That article is worrying if true, and it’s certainly not going to help us restore the economy in any way, as people just won’t go out if they’re facing such limiting restrictions, as it’s just not enjoyable. If this is true then I fear for the future of this country, but I hope and pray it’s just media scaremongering, as many of these stories have been before.
I agree but sadly the papers have been true with most of these leaks particularly The Times I am sure they broke the story about the quarantining. Surely won’t make holidays nice also what if you want a day visit to France by Eurostar? By travelling you require a test? Also the papers suggesting masks will be forced in all public places too.
 

SouthEastBuses

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This is positive news.

I agree with you. But I do believe now wasn't really a good time to relax the quarantine, as the virus is still quite risky.

Not that I am against foreign holidays - mind you I'm getting bored of staying in the UK all the time, and I always enjoy going abroad. All I'm saying is that I don't think now was a good time to relax the quarantine due to the virus still being quite risky...
 

Bletchleyite

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That article is worrying if true, and it’s certainly not going to help us restore the economy in any way, as people just won’t go out if they’re facing such limiting restrictions, as it’s just not enjoyable. If this is true then I fear for the future of this country, but I hope and pray it’s just media scaremongering, as many of these stories have been before.

I would travel abroad if all I had to do when I got back was be tested and isolate pending the result (a day or two if that and getting quicker). I wouldn't travel abroad if it was going to cost me 14 bored days of my life. So it seems good to me, not worrying, a sensible balance of convenience and protection.
 

BJames

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I would travel abroad if all I had to do when I got back was be tested and isolate pending the result (a day or two if that and getting quicker). I wouldn't travel abroad if it was going to cost me 14 bored days of my life. So it seems good to me, not worrying, a sensible balance of convenience and protection.
So would I and I'm sure many others. I can't justify a full 14 day quarantine on my return so for now any holidays I do take will have to be firmly domestic. Unless they sort their travel corridors/air bridges/whatever name they want to use out soon.
 
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