That was the Layman's explanation?
, which is more or less what jtuk suggested. The links to the Cambridge methodology was just to highlight it isn't "back of the fag packet" maths!Which does essentially boil down to taking the number of cases and deaths reported by various public health bodies, alongside data/estimates about what level of 'exposure' the virus is getting, to estimate numbers of current and future infections, and then just taking the ratio between the two to determine 'R'
More scaremongering from the mirror tonight:
As far as I’m concerned, another national lockdown is not going to happen, and I’m absolutely beyond sick of the media using scare-mongering tactics to try and increase clicks and ad revenue.
I’m not saying there should be state-control over the media, as that is very dangerous, but there needs to be a review into how irresponsibly the media has behaved throughout this crisis.
I think a number of people are in agreement. Fed up with media stirring these things up, it just causes misery or is that their aim?I am not prepared to tolerate another lockdown. Quite simply if that happens I will not be attending work, and will not comply with any stipulations, simple as that. Boris can piffle away all he likes, my supply of patience for him and his shower of a government is now at rock bottom.
I am not prepared to tolerate another lockdown. Quite simply if that happens I will not be attending work, and will not comply with any stipulations, simple as that. Boris can piffle away all he likes, my supply of patience for him and his shower of a government is now at rock bottom.
I think that the Government are aware that the public will not tolerate another lockdown.
I don’t know, social media seems to be full of people who seem rather keen on the idea.
Of course what many of these types presumably mean by “lockdown” is a matter for conjecture.
I’m not necessarily sure elements of the media are against it either.
They are vocal, but still a minority - there are a lot of people who went along with it the first time even if they didn't agree, but wouldn't do so a second time.
And a decreasing amount of them too. My town's Facebook group has mellowed a lot in the last month.
I wish I could say the same here!
Our local economy relies a lot on tourism. I think they've finally woken up to the fact the telling every visitor they are a granny killing murderer isn't going to pay the billsI wish I could say the same here!
I don’t know, social media seems to be full of people who seem rather keen on the idea.
Of course what many of these types presumably mean by “lockdown” is a matter for conjecture.
I’m not necessarily sure elements of the media are against it either.
What might quash it is the police - I think they’re already at end-of-tether with Boris, and I suspect they’d privately or even publicly refuse to enforce it.
Are there actually a lot of them, or are they just very vociferous?
Predominantly female and in their 30s (and probably on furlough), by any chance?
From the BBC it appears to be the same that schools should be "the last thing to close" in any lockdown (weren't they anyway in March) ?
Whitty spouting more bilge about shutting pubs and restaurants.
Indeed, there’s no way we’ll need to close pubs to open schools in the majority of places (think about it - if every other country is managing then why are we different?). This is just in the event of a severe local lockdown, which would be even more severe than the ones in Manchester, Preston etcReading beyond the headline (I have borrowed a Sunday Times login) it actually says that in the event of the need for a severe local lockdown, pubs and restaurants would close before schools. Which is obvious. But doesn't sell papers.
Coronavirus BOMBSHELL: National lockdown could be re-imposed next month
A SECOND national COVID-19 lockdown may have to be imposed next month according to an incendiary warning from Sir David King, who formerly served as the Government's chief scientific adviser.
Sir David warned another UK wide shutdown could be needed in September unless the Government sorts out its ‘Test and Trace’ policy this month. He said the reopening of schools is likely to boost the R rate, the number of people each COVID-19 patient infects, by 0.5.
This would put the rate above one meaning the disease would start spreading exponentially again.
Sir David was the Government’s chief scientific advisor between 2000 and 2007.
Currently he heads the Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies which shadows the Government’s team of scientific advisors.
Speaking to the Daily Mirror he said: “The Government has a month to deal with the level of infectivity as it stands now.
Reopening schools should be a priority, but we believe we are nowhere near the point where it can be done safely.
“We need a proper test and trace system by September.
“Otherwise I’m sure school opening will put us right back.
“We will see the Government backing lockdowns and, yes, I do think this could happen nationally.”
Another batch or scaremongering from the media. No way I could deal with another lockdown and probably not alone in that. I get a feeling he needs an extra 15 minutes of fame as many of these 'top' advisors seem to need. Getting fed up with experts, top advisors etc who just want to make us all miserable, well it's working. This country seriously needs to get a grip, no-one in politics has the guts to admit the reality on this that it's with us and we all have to deal with that and get on with normal life. It's nowhere near the worst virus to hit the human race.It's coming up on the Express now that a second national lockdown could have to be re-imposed next month.....
Coronavirus BOMBSHELL: National lockdown could be imposed next month
A SECOND national COVID-19 lockdown may have to be imposed next month according to an incendiary warning from Sir David King, who formerly served as the Government's chief scientific adviser.www.express.co.uk
If we reset back to a full national lockdown AGAIN, this will cause even more catastrophic damage to the UK economy, unemployment people's livelihoods and mental health to the damage that has already been done!!! Many hundreds or even thousands of businesses up and down the country will go under. Many MANY people will just not be able to take a reset back to full national lockdown!!!!! Many people will think life's not worth living anymore. Will the government not take this into account before going ahead with a destructive full national lockdown??!!
Daily Coronavirus deaths now on a 7-day rolling average are now less than 60 per day. This is over a 90% decrease to what they were at the peak back in mid April! And daily deaths are continuing to fall and fall. We should be down to less than 30 deaths per day on a 7-day rolling average, in around a months time. We don't need a full national lockdown!
And just a month or so again, Boris mentioned in an interview that a full national lockdown again is absolutely RULED OUT!!! So if he goes ahead and orders a full national lockdown again, that will be a U-turn on that! But I don't have too much trust in him now. Last month during a press conference he mentioned that "We may MAY be able to cut social distancing completely by November at the earliest.". And I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt over this. But then just a week or so later he then mentioned during an interview "We may be able to relax restrictions around the middle of next year.". So that's totally contradictory to what he said a week or so before that!
I’m not saying there should be state-control over the media, as that is very dangerous, but there needs to be a review into how irresponsibly the media has behaved throughout this crisis.
David King has been on the more hawkish side of the scientists for a while now. That said, the "call to action" of getting track and trace working better isn't one I disagree with.
Yes just like all those heatwaves and cold snaps that the Express report, and absolutely nothing comes of it...It's coming up on the Express now that a second national lockdown could have to be re-imposed next month.....
Coronavirus BOMBSHELL: National lockdown could be imposed next month
A SECOND national COVID-19 lockdown may have to be imposed next month according to an incendiary warning from Sir David King, who formerly served as the Government's chief scientific adviser.www.express.co.uk
If we reset back to a full national lockdown AGAIN, this will cause even more catastrophic damage to the UK economy, unemployment, people's livelihoods and mental health to the damage that has already been done!!! Many hundreds or even thousands of businesses up and down the country will go under. Many MANY people will just not be able to take a reset back to full national lockdown!!!!! Many people will think life's not worth living anymore. Will the government not take this into account before going ahead with a destructive full national lockdown??!!
Daily Coronavirus deaths now on a 7-day rolling average are now less than 60 per day. This is over a 90% decrease to what they were at the peak back in mid April! And daily deaths are continuing to fall and fall. We should be down to less than 30 deaths per day on a 7-day rolling average, in around a months time. We don't need a full national lockdown!
And just a month or so again, Boris mentioned in an interview that a full national lockdown again is absolutely RULED OUT!!! So if he goes ahead and orders a full national lockdown again, that will be a U-turn on that! But I don't have too much trust in him now. Last month during a press conference he mentioned that "We may MAY be able to cut social distancing completely by November at the earliest.". And I was prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt over this. But then just a week or so later he then mentioned during an interview "We may be able to relax restrictions around the middle of next year.". So that's totally contradictory to what he said a week or so before that!
Express is currently owned by the Mirror group (Reach) so no surprise they recycle the same headlines.It's coming up on the Express now that a second national lockdown could have to be re-imposed next month.....
No they wouldn't, because it's not the deadly killer virus. No deaths from anything at all matter now, unless they are caused by the deadly killer virus.If we reset back to a full national lockdown AGAIN, this will cause even more catastrophic damage to the UK economy, unemployment, people's livelihoods and mental health to the damage that has already been done!!! Many hundreds or even thousands of businesses up and down the country will go under. Many MANY people will just not be able to take a reset back to full national lockdown!!!!! Many people will think life's not worth living anymore. Will the government not take this into account before going ahead with a destructive full national lockdown??!!
Yes just like all those heatwaves and cold snaps that the Express report, and absolutely nothing comes of it...
Today Boris seems to have announced some government policy regarding the opening of schools versus closing of other things via his column in the Sunday Times. I can't link to it as it's behind a pay wall. And this is my issue. Would any other country allow policy to be announced in this manner? Covid aside, I don't think it's appropriate for any sitting PM to discuss any policy issues in a newspaper column. This sort of thing should be reserved for TV interviews by a public service broadcaster (BBC, ITV or C4), or even a ministerial statement if required, which the papers can be free to report on.
What are your thoughts?
(mods feel free to merge with the media coverage thread if needed, but I think this is a diverging topic)