Media Coverage of COVID -19

[yorksrob]

Well today they’re reporting that 3 pubs have had to close due to customers testing positive, implying that the pub was the problem. Now they only opened Saturday. I find it extremely unlikely that these people woke up on Sunday with raging symptoms, arranged and had a test and got result by Monday. This at least to me, suggests these people were either waiting for test results or already had symptoms so were irresponsible visiting a pub in the first place.

Yes, I thought that the tone of that article was very misleading as it suggests that people cavorting around in these pubs has caused an issue, wheres the timescales seem more likely to indicate that someone tested positive soon after visiting and as a result others in the pub have been told to isolate.

It's certainly too early for someone to have caught the virus from someone in the pub, felt symptoms then got tested, so we don't even know if it has been transmitted there, but the BBC seems to have gone for a more sensationalist spin on it.

 

[Yew]

A lot of people in media claiming that data from Spain says that herd immunity is 'unachievable' because only 5% of the Spanish population has antibodies.
Which is not actually supported by the data.

They just have just decided the casualties required are unacceptable, but refuse to state that this is a position they have taken and instead make an unsupported statement, probably for political reasons.

(Herd immunity is definitely achievable in Spain, it is just it will require something on order of a quarter of a million dead at current casualty rates, which is a very different statement to make)

I don't think there's clear evidence that those casualties would be required to gain herd immunity.

 

[Starmill]

I think we can see now that the figures can be massaged as the government wishes; looking at the examples of Bradford and Leicester, we know that neither had full knowledge of the statistics which has left them in the situations they’re in.

In some specific cases perhaps. But the national picture in the first few days of May, which is what I was commenting on, doesn't seem to have been inaccurate.

 

[SamYeager]

Yes, I thought that the tone of that article was very misleading as it suggests that people cavorting around in these pubs has caused an issue,
<snip>
but the BBC seems to have gone for a more sensationalist spin on it.

Gives them another stick with which to beat the government; somehow I'm not surprised.

 

[Bayum]

Gives them another stick with which to beat the government; somehow I'm not surprised.

The government has been giving out the sticks the whole way through!

 

[MikeWM]

I don't think there's clear evidence that those casualties would be required to gain herd immunity.

Indeed so. Population of Spain around 50 million. Let's pessimistically assume 50% need to be infected for herd immunity (the more information we find about other pre-existing forms of immunity, that looks high, but let's go with it for now). And IFR of around 0.25%, which is possibly a little high too. That's about 60,000 deaths.

(Same exercise for UK, assuming about 66 million - about 80,000 deaths. Less than the 'Hong Kong' flu. Note Ferguson's original model assumed 80% and IFR of 0.9%, which does work out at around half a million - but the inputs are way too high).

 

[nlogax]

Now that Jair Bolsonaro's tested positive for this thing I'm keen to see how the media will take to this story. Brazil's a Covid basket case at the moment and you'd hope that Bolsonaro will learn from this experience and do a bit of leading by example rather than pretending the whole thing doesn't really exist. However, some parts of the media really aren't so charitable as we've discovered in recent months.

 

[MikeWM]

Now that Jair Bolsonaro's tested positive for this thing I'm keen to see how the media will take to this story. Brazil's a Covid basket case at the moment and you'd hope that Bolsonaro will learn from this experience and do a bit of leading by example rather than pretending the whole thing doesn't really exist. However, some parts of the media really aren't so charitable as we've discovered in recent months.

Hopefully they will compare with Peru, which locked down early and hard and is only just starting to reopen. Oddly enough the trajectory - cases and deaths per million - has been almost identical in both.

 

[nlogax]

Hopefully they will compare with Peru, which locked down early and hard and is only just starting to reopen. Oddly enough the trajectory - cases and deaths per million - has been almost identical in both.

In the case of Peru their population is 15% of the size of Brazil's, and Peru's leader doesn't really possess Bolsonaro's 'profile', if that's the word. Media attention is always going to focus on the bigger neighbour.

 

[MikeWM]

In the case of Peru their population is 15% of the size of Brazil's, and Peru's leader doesn't really possess Bolsonaro's 'profile', if that's the word. Media attention is always going to focus on the bigger neighbour.

Of course, it is far more interested in being 'interesting' than actual things like facts. Looking too closely at Peru might be inconvenient for the narrative, so of course they won't.

 

[birchesgreen]

Uruguay (960 cases, 29 deaths) would be another interesting comparison. From what i understand they didn't so much of a lockdown but rather treated people like adults.

 

[adc82140]

There's been a lot of talk in the media of a second wave in Melbourne. It is not. This is their first wave, having had no more than a handful of cases before.

 

[SamYeager]

The government has been giving out the sticks the whole way through!

This is very true although it's notable that there's been very little, if any, coverage on the national news about the Welsh administration's performance in Wales.

 

[Richard Scott]

Just seen latest scaremongering headline of UK could face second lockdown within months if not weeks. Upon reading this found that Scotland's public health advisor (Devi Sridhar) had uttered these words. Apparently she wants to eliminate the virus over the summer and then open up safely. I take it she has no science background at all spouting this sort of nonsense. How does she envisage this happening? She thinks that can eliminate it and it'll never return, how will it be eliminated? A copy of her tweet is within the text and already over 4800 people have liked it - oh dear! Could someone clarify exactly who she is and what her qualifications are as would be interested to know? If she has any science background then all she's doing is getting herself noticed as she must know she's not making sense.

 

[PHILIPE]

Just seen latest scaremongering headline of UK could face second lockdown within months if not weeks. Upon reading this found that Scotland's public health advisor (Devi Sridhar) had uttered these words. Apparently she wants to eliminate the virus over the summer and then open up safely. I take it she has no science background at all spouting this sort of nonsense. How does she envisage this happening? She thinks that can eliminate it and it'll never return, how will it be eliminated? A copy of her tweet is within the text and already over 4800 people have liked it - oh dear! Could someone clarify exactly who she is and what her qualifications are as would be interested to know? If she has any science background then all she's doing is getting herself noticed as she must know she's not making sense.

It seems that many of the mutterings that are coming out from various people are putting the fear of God into some people. There was a father interviewed on TV News earlier this week about going back to school in September and he was very fearful of his daughter returning saying September is a long way off and we should wait and see what the position is then.
Everything is so gloomy and although we know full well there could be risks, we never seem to hear anything encouraging.

 

[adc82140]

The latest R figure is out. Unchanged 0.7 to 0.9 nationally, 0.8 to 1.0 in England. Sky News are apoplectic. It's in yellow on the website. Yellow I tells ya!

Fortunately this time the BBC are pointing out that R has become an unreliable indicator due to the low incidences of the disease, and actually express surprise that it isn't higher.

 

[Bantamzen]

The latest R figure is out. Unchanged 0.7 to 0.9 nationally, 0.8 to 1.0 in England. Sky News are apoplectic. It's in yellow on the website. Yellow I tells ya!

Fortunately this time the BBC are pointing out that R has become an unreliable indicator due to the low incidences of the disease, and actually express surprise that it isn't higher.

R is just one indicator in a myriad of indicators. The media's rabid obsession of singling out individual indicators to sell the covid-hysteria (just make sure you remove adbloc for these sites, and click on those sponsor links) is really starting to become a serious problem. The telling indicators right now are that new infections are down, hospital occupation for covid is down, deaths with covid infection recorded (as is required as covid is a notifiable disease) are down, and all this in a period approaching two months of continued relaxation of lockdown measures. Yet despite all this, the media, and sadly I include the BBC in this, continue to dig for those bad news stories to get those clicks.

R will become more unstable as infection rates come down, it is not an absolute value but a indication of the potential spread within areas experiencing them, no matter how large or small. So as was in seen in Germany a few weeks ago with an outbreak at a food processing factory, R shot up to close to 3 but only for a couple of days, and then once those people exposed had been traced and asked to test & trace, it dropped almost immediately back to around 0.8 in Germany. Its really important not to get hung up on one set of values or another, but to look at the overall picture.

 

[MikeWM]

So as was in seen in Germany a few weeks ago with an outbreak at a food processing factory, R shot up to close to 3 but only for a couple of days, and then once those people exposed had been traced and asked to test & trace, it dropped almost immediately back to around 0.8 in Germany.

and oddly enough, one of those things was very widely reported IN BIG HEADLINES in the media, and the other wasn't mentioned at all. No prizes for guessing which.

 

[Bantamzen]

and oddly enough, one of those things was very widely reported IN BIG HEADLINES in the media, and the other wasn't mentioned at all. No prizes for guessing which.

Oooh, oooh, I know, was the unreported one 0.8 perchance...?

 

[Class 33]

Front page of the Express website today, "Britain faces threat of CHRISTMAS LOCKDOWN as winter second wave looms.". Dear oh dear, am sick of all this scare mongering going on in the press and media. Yesterday the daily deaths was down to only 48, but seemingly no positive outlook on this from the press and media that the Coronavirus deaths are continuing to decline and at quite a decent rate this week. Seems they only want to report the bad news.

I'm pretty sure back in March just before the lockdown there was a headline/article on the Express website that experts predict 500,000 in the UK will die from Coronavirus this year!! Pretty scare, and at the time I actually believed this. But those expects were very wrong, as we are absolutely nowhere that level of people dieing from Coronavirus this year![/B]

 

[PHILIPE]

Front page of the Express website today, "Britain faces threat of CHRISTMAS LOCKDOWN as winter second wave looms.". Dear oh dear, am sick of all this scare mongering going on in the press and media. Yesterday the daily deaths was down to only 48, but seemingly no positive outlook on this from the press and media that the Coronavirus deaths are continuing to decline and at quite a decent rate this week. Seems they only want to report the bad news.

I'm pretty sure back in March just before the lockdown there was a headline/article on the Express website that experts predict 500,000 in the UK will die from Coronavirus this year!! Pretty scare, and at the time I actually believed this. But those expects were very wrong, as we are absolutely nowhere that level of people dieing from Coronavirus this year![/B]

I don't take much notice of Express predictions. Every Autumn they tell us to expect an awful Winter, 6 weeks of snow.......

 

[adc82140]

Every article about Russia or China is also marked as"World War 3 fears".

However I've mentioned before that normally we can have a good laugh about their silly articles at their expense, but this sort of thing is causing some genuine mental health problems.

Does anyone actually read it?

Does anyone actually take it seriously?

 

[Bantamzen]

The media is also getting itself all excited at the prospect of masks for all in England, and the BBC is busy speculating as to why politicians haven't been wearing masks. Well here's a thought, perhaps because they were not mandated and the evidence for wearing them is weak! You really couldn't make this stuff up!

 

[adc82140]

From the BBC's hospital deaths report today

"one person, aged 96, had no underlying health conditions"

I feel sorry for the person and their family, but I'm afraid being 96 is an underlying health condition in itself.

 

[Class 33]

So after yesterday's deaths of 148, today's is down to just 21. But I don't see the Express or other press making a fuss of that, like they did when it shot up a lot yesterday. Tomorrow's death will probably be a little lower again. But come Tuesday when the inevitable rise up to about 100 or so deaths again, they'll be up to their old tricks again within minutes of the deaths being published.

 

[Huntergreed]

So after yesterday's deaths of 148, today's is down to just 21. But I don't see the Express or other press making a fuss of that, like they did when it shot up a lot yesterday. Tomorrow's death will probably be a little lower again. But come Tuesday when the inevitable rise up to about 100 or so deaths again, they'll be up to their old tricks again within minutes of the deaths being published.

The thing I’ve noticed is that they don’t even seem to be bothered about reporting negative news in general, it’s all just COVID negative news. You see no mention of the thousands of job losses, many business closures and the severe economic impact this is happening, but 100 deaths with (not of) Covid, they’re all over it! Makes very little sense and it’s firing our approach in the wrong direction in my view.

 

[kez19]

The media is also getting itself all excited at the prospect of masks for all in England, and the BBC is busy speculating as to why politicians haven't been wearing masks. Well here's a thought, perhaps because they were not mandated and the evidence for wearing them is weak! You really couldn't make this stuff up!

The thing is though media will go out and about asking the public about masks/face coverings (seen it up here in Scotland and local press), but I agree you don't see many politicians wearing masks (of it they do it'll be for show ie media/social media), still believe its a system of one rule for public and another for politicians...

I have always wondered why the media concentrates on the deaths more than recoveries (sure it may have been about a month or so ago that both BBC/Sky actually did mention people recovering but at a guess its not the angle they want -- this goes for all media)

 

[Bantamzen]

The thing is though media will go out and about asking the public about masks/face coverings (seen it up here in Scotland and local press), but I agree you don't see many politicians wearing masks (of it they do it'll be for show ie media/social media), still believe its a system of one rule for public and another for politicians...

I have always wondered why the media concentrates on the deaths more than recoveries (sure it may have been about a month or so ago that both BBC/Sky actually did mention people recovering but at a guess its not the angle they want -- this goes for all media)

The media has moved through a number of different statistical measures, starting with the number of cases & deaths, then focusing more just on deaths. As deaths started to reduce they had a brief flirtation with the R0 value, but when that proved to be problematic for them, primarily because they didn't fully understand that it is not a absolute value like say infections or deaths, they've now moved onto cases per 100,000. And they've done this to feed the web pages and social media feeds to generate those clicks that may them more relevant, or generate advertisement income.

People who take their time researching the virus and understanding the data are not their targets, it is to put it bluntly aimed at what we come to describe as the Facebook Experts, or Karens who are spreading all kinds of misinformation and hysteria. These are the ones most likely to start clicking when a media outlet has headlines like "Cases increase by 50% in <insert name of small town> in one day" when an area sees 2 cases instead of 1.

 

[GrahamD83]

On the BBC this morning:

Winter wave of coronavirus 'could be worse than first'

The UK could see about 120,000 new coronavirus deaths in a second wave of infections this winter, scientists say.

Asked to model a "reasonable" worst-case scenario, they suggest a range between 24,500 and 251,000 of virus-related deaths in hospitals alone, peaking in January and February.

The estimate does not take into account any lockdowns, treatments or vaccines.

The report, requested by the UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, stresses there is still a high degree of uncertainty over how the coronavirus pandemic will play out this winter.

 

[Scrotnig]

On the BBC this morning:

Winter wave of coronavirus 'could be worse than first'

More pointless modelling. You'd think they'd just keep quiet after every single model the world over turned out to be woefully wrong. But no.

And the BBC ought to be above this pathetic scaremongering.