MEN article-"Northern Rail is crumbling from the inside out and things are only going to get worse"

[sheff1]

But no franchised TOC has much discretion in what it has to operate. Basically they have to bid for everything that the DfT and TfN have specified.

No one has to bid for anything. If an organisation believes a specification cannot be met - don't bid.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A person who drives down the M62 is not doing so as per a published timetable.

In any case I find Waze and Google Nav give me very accurate arrival times - only a serious accident tends to knacker them. More reliable than a Northern, TPE or LNR printed timetable, anyway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No one has to bid for anything. If an organisation believes a specification cannot be met - don't bid.

Precisely. As I've said elsewhere, my respect for Stagecoach in taking this line on the pension issue is significant.

 

[cactustwirly]

However, down in the South they have a fleet of brand new electric trains sitting in sidings because all the billions invested in the Crossrail project has yet to deliver enough track and facilities to let them all run. And my Northern taxes went towards that.

It's dire all round.

They're not sat in sidings doing nothing anymore, they're used on services to Hayes and Reading actually.

 

[cactustwirly]

Precisely. As I've said elsewhere, my respect for Stagecoach in taking this line on the pension issue is significant.

Why? Stagecoach is a greedy company, and fiddled with the pensions because they couldn't be bothered to submit a bit that was competitive enough.
The railways are better without them.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Why? Stagecoach is a greedy company, and fiddled with the pensions . . .

Really? I thought they refused to touch the pensions even with a bargepole. They were declared "not compliant" for doing so.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Precisely. As I've said elsewhere, my respect for Stagecoach in taking this line on the pension issue is significant.

That is not what Stagecoach did. They bid but refused to take on the pension liability. And then went running to the courts when their bid for something that wasn't being offered was rejected. There is no honour whatsoever in taking that approach.

 

[Bantamzen]

In any case I find Waze and Google Nav give me very accurate arrival times - only a serious accident tends to knacker them. More reliable than a Northern, TPE or LNR printed timetable, anyway.

I think you meant to say serious accidents, road works, bad weather, peak time traffic, off peak traffic, days with the letter 'y' in them....? The M62 is a regular, if not quite daily cluster-you-know-what, at least according to local travel info streams, colleagues at work, people I know who drive the M62 daily. And its probably going to get a lot worse when work starts in Leeds on reshaping the infamous Armley Gyratory.

But back on topic, you say simply paths, dedicate crews, max out unit lengths all day, most of which I can't argue with. However can you image the horror that would be expressed by some on here at the suggestion of a heavily subsidised franchise running around fresh air all day? Heck, if a TPE dares to creep into Manchester Airport with a few spare seats the RUK bean counters go into overdrive, so I dread to think how a six car Calder Valley service would be greeted in the middle of a day. Of course the amateur bean counters don't make the decisions, but sadly their views seem to be reflected by those in the corridors of power down in Whitehall. And therein lies the heart of the heart of the problem.

The answer in the short term is blindingly obvious. Rework the franchise agreements to remove the reducing subsidy requirement, accept that the train network is a vital part of our economy's infrastructure & a very important driver of productivity. Allow TOCs to recruit the numbers of staff they effectively need to operate services, and collect revenue. Allow the TOCs to procure additional capacity for those routes that need them. Remove the restrictive requirements for DOO, or any version of crew reductions. More units & more staff will go some way towards resolving these issues at least inside of a couple of years, which in the great scheme of things railway-wise is very much short term.

Maybe in the even shorter term, some reworking of timetables might be agreeable, although reducing services whilst increasing capacity on those that remain might seem like a good idea, but when you consider some routes might only see 1 or 2tph, a single failure could leave people stranded for even longer than they might be now. ​

 

[bengley]

I think you meant to say serious accidents, road works, bad weather, peak time traffic, off peak traffic, days with the letter 'y' in them....? The M62 is a regular, if not quite daily cluster-you-know-what, at least according to local travel info streams, colleagues at work, people I know who drive the M62 daily. And its probably going to get a lot worse when work starts in Leeds on reshaping the infamous Armley Gyratory.

But back on topic, you say simply paths, dedicate crews, max out unit lengths all day, most of which I can't argue with. However can you image the horror that would be expressed by some on here at the suggestion of a heavily subsidised franchise running around fresh air all day? Heck, if a TPE dares to creep into Manchester Airport with a few spare seats the RUK bean counters go into overdrive, so I dread to think how a six car Calder Valley service would be greeted in the middle of a day. Of course the amateur bean counters don't make the decisions, but sadly their views seem to be reflected by those in the corridors of power down in Whitehall. And therein lies the heart of the heart of the problem.

The answer in the short term is blindingly obvious. Rework the franchise agreements to remove the reducing subsidy requirement, accept that the train network is a vital part of our economy's infrastructure & a very important driver of productivity. Allow TOCs to recruit the numbers of staff they effectively need to operate services, and collect revenue. Allow the TOCs to procure additional capacity for those routes that need them. Remove the restrictive requirements for DOO, or any version of crew reductions. More units & more staff will go some way towards resolving these issues at least inside of a couple of years, which in the great scheme of things railway-wise is very much short term.

Maybe in the even shorter term, some reworking of timetables might be agreeable, although reducing services whilst increasing capacity on those that remain might seem like a good idea, but when you consider some routes might only see 1 or 2tph, a single failure could leave people stranded for even longer than they might be now. ​

Waze and Google Maps take peak traffic and roadworks into account when they calculate the ETA.

They are only inaccurate if the accident occurs after you start your trip, much like a Rail timetable.

 

[adsteamfan]

My son is a Northern driver and he frequently comes home p***ed off with the system. For example, he can leave Sheffield bang on time only to get looped by Network Fail for anything up to 20 minutes waiting for a late running TPE (or even a freight train) to overtake which gets him frustrated as he knows that he could have cleared the section before the TPE could catch him. He then gets it in the neck from the passengers, even though it's out of his control, and then has to fill in a form to explain why his unit is late! Northern services seem to be at the bottom of the priority list for paths. If all units were capable of accelerating and running faster e.g. 195s instead of 15x on express routes like Sheffield-Manchester then the frequency of being sat in a loop, and hence delays, would be grately reduced and Northern's performance would be so much better.

 

[scrapy]

No one has to bid for anything. If an organisation believes a specification cannot be met - don't bid.

A driver has told me that according to a current director (who wasn't with Northern or Arriva at the time of the bid) who visited their depot blamed Network Rail and CAF but also said 'The bid team had their eyes shut'.

There are several points that they got wrong most notably not clarifying/getting proper information on how much Serco Abellio were paying out in overtime for drivers and confusing monthly figures as annual figures for that. There was also a wildly bad underestimate of how much the Blackburn depot would cost to get up and running, and how much training on new trains would cost.

He said these and several other failings have put pressure on other parts of the business although the director didn't admit directly to anywhere being understaffed or underfunded.

It wouldn't surprise me if the bid team were as overly optimistic and naive on what was deliverable logistically as they were when evaluating the cost side and whilst some things have gone against Arriva there was no contingency in the bid to allow for anything to go wrong, but also looks bad on the DFT for accepting an undeliverable bid.

 

[Bantamzen]

Waze and Google Maps take peak traffic and roadworks into account when they calculate the ETA.

They are only inaccurate if the accident occurs after you start your trip, much like a Rail timetable.

I know that, but fowl ups occur frequently during peak times when people are en route, which Google et al can't predict.

 

[Djgr]

I know that, but fowl ups occur frequently during peak times when people are en route, which Google et al can't predict.

They can't predict but they can and do rapidly in almost real time take account of fowl ups by adjusting predicted journey times and changing (where possible) recommended routes. Seriously, I would never go on a commute or long car journey without Google Maps by my side.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The answer in the short term is blindingly obvious. Rework the franchise agreements to remove the reducing subsidy requirement, accept that the train network is a vital part of our economy's infrastructure & a very important driver of productivity. Allow TOCs to recruit the numbers of staff they effectively need to operate services, and collect revenue. Allow the TOCs to procure additional capacity for those routes that need them. Remove the restrictive requirements for DOO, or any version of crew reductions. More units & more staff will go some way towards resolving these issues at least inside of a couple of years, which in the great scheme of things railway-wise is very much short term.

I'd call that the medium term. But even with that, unless the Castlefield work is done there is still a necessity to reduce services to make it reliable.

In the long term, NPR and possibly also 15/16 will (hopefully) solve it properly.

Maybe in the even shorter term, some reworking of timetables might be agreeable, although reducing services whilst increasing capacity on those that remain might seem like a good idea, but when you consider some routes might only see 1 or 2tph, a single failure could leave people stranded for even longer than they might be now.

​

I wouldn't reduce below 1tph with the exception of very rural stuff. An example where I might is Ormskirk-Preston, on which the 1h15 ish frequency single unit shuttle was watch-settingly punctual and reliable. I would prefer hourly on that route, but fundamentally reliable is better than clockface (and you know how much I like clockface).

 

[Sleeperwaking]

It wouldn't surprise me if the bid team were as overly optimistic and naive on what was deliverable logistically as they were when evaluating the cost side and whilst some things have gone against Arriva there was no contingency in the bid to allow for anything to go wrong, but also looks bad on the DFT for accepting an undeliverable bid.

One of the really frustrating things about the franchise bid system is that the people writing the bids have a comparatively short time to put together a very complicated business case and (if not the incumbent) without any in depth knowledge of the actual franchise itself. They can request information to the DfT, but this often comes through quite late (there is no benefit to the incumbent operator to provide information straight away). Even then, the initial proposal (built on insufficient data) will probably get told it's too expensive, and the team have to find places to reduce costs). People end up working extremely long hours towards the deadline, and it's easy to see how a mis-calculation could slip through. Then, after the bid is awarded, the existing operational staff with actual knowledge of what's workable finally get to see what they have to implement...

From personal experience, I now make a point at the start of a project of going through all the contractual routes with the TOC's operations / planning team to flush out all the bits of route that are required to run a service but that weren't included in the bid (diversionary routes, access to stabling locations / crossovers etc.). There are usually quite a few that got missed off - the most egregious one was where there was a serious typo and the main maintenance depot was omitted!!

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

You'd be forgiven for thinking that, but I've heard plenty of auto announcements on trains recently claiming to be the "Northern Rail service to..."

Are you sure? The female announcer definitely says “This is the Northern service” and the male says “We hope you have enjoyed travelling with Northern today” but there’s never a “Rail” in sight and that’s what makes the difference between the companies

 

[Bantamzen]

I'd call that the medium term. But even with that, unless the Castlefield work is done there is still a necessity to reduce services to make it reliable.

In the long term, NPR and possibly also 15/16 will (hopefully) solve it properly.​

In terms of planning, 1 to 2 years really isn't that long so unhooking hundreds of complex diagrams, and slotting in anything less so alongside other operators & having them agreed with Network Rail means that by the time new timetables are agreed, you might not be that far off getting the extra crews trained to cover the original diagrams anyway. We've all seen what happens when Northern & TPE panic & throw out temporary timetables, they can cause more problems than they are meant to solve.​

I wouldn't reduce below 1tph with the exception of very rural stuff. An example where I might is Ormskirk-Preston, on which the 1h15 ish frequency single unit shuttle was watch-settingly punctual and reliable. I would prefer hourly on that route, but fundamentally reliable is better than clockface (and you know how much I like clockface).

I can't comment on that particular route having never used it, but for many routes that kind of frequency would be on the outer limits of what would be useful to passengers. Isolating routes like that can work in certain instances, but you have to temper that with the needs of the passenger flows. I'd imagine that many more people use the Merseyrail services south rather than the Northern route north, so they can probably just about get away with that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can't comment on that particular route having never used it, but for many routes that kind of frequency would be on the outer limits of what would be useful to passengers. Isolating routes like that can work in certain instances, but you have to temper that with the needs of the passenger flows. I'd imagine that many more people use the Merseyrail services south rather than the Northern route north, so they can probably just about get away with that.

It's a rural branch line very different in character to Merseyrail and has always had low usage. It's not quite the Conwy Valley but the 1h15 frequency, while annoying, is adequate and was operated like that for something like 25 years (generally very punctually and reliably, unless there was snow or something) before the recent change. Probably very similar in nature to the Marston Vale.

 

[Royston Vasey]

Hopefully. Not always, though. Look at the 230s.

Not the best example. It's rare that proper manufacturers of proper new trains mess up that badly that the product can't be fixed with familiarity, experience and light remedial work, as opposed to rag tag groups churning out cut-and-shut shopping trollies with van engines.

The Class 180 would have been a good case in point, or the Fyra V250.

 

[urbophile]

In any case I find Waze and Google Nav give me very accurate arrival times - only a serious accident tends to knacker them.

Which in my experience can be surprisingly often. And once you are trapped on a motorway you could be there for a couple of hours which is a much more serious delay than most trains.

 

[Bovverboy]

Three of the five Blackpool North - Hazel Grove diagrams are grounded at the moment. (No driver).

 

[Djgr]

It's a rural branch line very different in character to Merseyrail and has always had low usage. It's not quite the Conwy Valley but the 1h15 frequency, while annoying, is adequate and was operated like that for something like 25 years (generally very punctually and reliably, unless there was snow or something) before the recent change. Probably very similar in nature to the Marston Vale.

You could make a marginal case for electrification to Burscough but its history is as the traditional fast route from Liverpool (Exchange) to Preston and northwards.

Whilst Ormskirk arguably points southwards towards Liverpool (although past the "Scouse speaking" boundary) and as a University and commuter town generates a fair amount of traffic that way, there is not much northwards.

Occasionally it still offers the quickest route from Liverpool to Preston.

 

[underbank]

Which in my experience can be surprisingly often. And once you are trapped on a motorway you could be there for a couple of hours which is a much more serious delay than most trains.

At least if you're going somewhere important, like the airport, you can set off a couple of hours early to try to mitigate the M60/1/2 problems. With the trains, they don't start early enough to allow that kind of contingency if you have a morning flight. If the first train of the day is delayed or cancelled, you're pretty much stuffed and will likely miss your flight if it's early/mid morning.

Of course, we shouldn't be trading one failing mode of transport against another failing mode. Both the railways and roads around Manchester NEED to be addressed as neither are currently fit for purpose.

 

[scrapy]

It's all well and good saying revert back to an old frequency such as every 1h15 to Ormskirk to save a unit but the reality is that with everything else being hourly through Preston and times having changed since May 18 the paths probably don't exist at varying times each hour and it would cause more problems than it would solve.

 

[wolfman]

They're not sat in sidings doing nothing anymore, they're used on services to Hayes and Reading actually.

So all these crossrail trains stored in Worksop are a mirage then

 

[Killingworth]

So all these crossrail trains stored in Worksop are a mirage then

Provocatively in the North Midlands!

 

[scrapy]

I had a rare trip to Accrington (Stanley) on Northern on Saturday. Was surprised at the number of old trains still operating.
Apparently Southern Taxpayers have invested Billions in new trains to stop the Northerners whinging. Unfortunately they have proved too complicated for the Northern Monkeys to operate or maintain (no racialist slur) so have been left in their garages
Apparently they are better at playing football than those of us from the South though.

There will still be a lot of old trains still operating when Northern have all their 331s and 195s in service. Around 4 in 5 services will still be on stock over 25 years old

 

[paul1609]

There will still be a lot of old trains still operating when Northern have all their 331s and 195s in service. Around 4 in 5 services will still be on stock over 25 years old

Nothing quite as old as the 44 year old ex London Overground stock without toilets (working heating, audible pa etc. etc) that forms our fast service along the SouthCoast then?

 

[cactustwirly]

So all these crossrail trains stored in Worksop are a mirage then

I thought you were talking about the 345s at Old Oak Common

 

[Bletchleyite]

It's all well and good saying revert back to an old frequency such as every 1h15 to Ormskirk to save a unit but the reality is that with everything else being hourly through Preston and times having changed since May 18 the paths probably don't exist at varying times each hour and it would cause more problems than it would solve.

The north WCML isn't even nearly full.