Transpennine services could run permanently via Golborne if the capacity was needed. Salford Cresant is nearly full in terms of frequency but there is plenty of capacity for growth through platform extensions and longer rolling stock. The planned frequency post electrification does not need increasing. Stockport viaduct is a bottleneck that prevents new services. The mid Cheshire line could support new stations and electrification between Altrincham and Stockport, the Middlewich freight line could be used for passenger services and a limited stop fast service from at least Northwich to Manchester would be popular. In addition a Stockport-Victoria service would be via Denton would be plausible if there were spare paths. I think Northern Hub squeezes in extra Manchester-Sheffield/Hazel Grove paths but nothing else.
I would like to see a third city crossing but I doubt that funding would be likely, especially if HS3 / NPR happens.
That's as maybe Chester1 - but TfGM are not thinking in terms of incemental changes applied to the current network to be able to maintian historic trends in passenger growth; but radical transformations:
- firstly so that commuter rail services are able to run without opeartaing subsidy;
- secondly so as to be able to support commuter flows into the regional centre 50% or 100% greater than now.
Comparing the city centre with five years ago; daily peak period commuting has increased by around 15,000 (from around 130,000, including the Education Precincts; to around 145,000). None of this additional commuting has been achieved by increased bus or private car use; there has been a fair degree of expansion in cycling and walking (which is possibly disguised car use); but essentially the growith in demand has been met from Metrolink (7,000) and rail (8,000). But while Metrolink is poised for a radical step increase in capacity; rail (especially on the lines in from Bolton) is straining at the seams.
Project that growth in demand for city-centre peak commuting 20 years into the future, and you may well be looking to accommodate an additional 60,000 daily peak period travellers. It is generally accepted that constraints on capacity of the road system inhibit any increase in car-user commuting. Rapid bus routes could well provide some scope for increased capacity - but wil still be restricted by the road network. So realistically, such growth would still mainly have to come in trams and trains.
The post-2CC tram system could well support an extra 30,000 peak period commuters per day (especially if the Marple line is coverted to tram-train); but does not look physically capable of going much beyond that. Which could imply additional capacity for 30,000 rail commuters - which would double the current total of all rail trips into central Manchester at peak periods. In context, the conversion of the Oldham/Rochdale line to tram operation has tripled former rail patronage, and it could well double again. Similar needs to be achievable across the commuter rail network.
To attract those extra rail commuters, services would need to be transformed to run at higher frequency, and to penetrate through the city centre. That appears to offer a business model for commuter rail to operate without revenue support - which is what the trams achieve, and which would be a minimum requirement as far as TfGM are concerned. TfGM will not be interested in replicating operating models that don't run at a profit. But the existing cross-city routes are clearly insufficient for this purpose - even with platform extensions and longer rolling stock. Hence, it seems, the conclusion that a metro-style service through a city centre tunnel is the way to go.
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