MML Electrification: progress updates

[HSTEd]

Just to put this out there but there is about 56 miles worth of 125mph running on the MML now south of Trent Junction/East Midlands Parkway. Yes in comparison to the ECML actually stretches of 125mph aren't as long, but as a total amount this is still reasonable amount of the lines route, and this doesn't include the stretches of 120/115/110mph along the rest of the MML.

A short stretch of 125mph is not actually a section of 125mph running, you have to take account of the traction performance of the train, and after my exams are complete I will run an Excel (bow before the might of Excel! ) analysis to demonstrate what I mean. (And I know its primitive but it is useful for demonstrating things).

Just a primitive fag packet calculation - 56 miles takes ~27 minutes at 125mph, at 110mph it takes 30.5 minutes (so a loss at most of 3.5 minutes), and if the 115mph Desiro actually happens it will take only 29.2 minutes ( a loss of ~2.2 minutes).
The actual losses will be less than this due to the aforementioned acceleration/decelleration time.

I think you will find that there are 2tph which run non-stop from Leicester to London, which I'd call more than a handful.

2tph is the minimum that is useful in the modern railway, how about having four?
That would be more like it and gains the walk up passenger some 7.5 minutes.

 

[Martin222002]

And I am due to obtain the office of Prime Minister of the Moon by 2020 - it doesn't mean its going to happen.
The fact that almost no actual work has commenced on this project seems to suggest that that completion date is something of a joke.

A substantial amount of bridge clearance works has been completed and the first sections of masts will start being put in early this coming summer, as stated in the most recent Rail magazine. Also the wires are to be completed and in service to Corby for December 2017, to Derby and Nottingham for December 2019 and Sheffield for December 2020. If Network Rail, and there contractors, can't get that done in just under 6 years, then God help us having HS2 completed even by 2050.

 

[RichmondCommu]

And I am due to obtain the office of Prime Minister of the Moon by 2020 - it doesn't mean its going to happen.
The fact that almost no actual work has commenced on this project seems to suggest that that completion date is something of a joke.

Once again you are conveniently ignoring the facts to suit your own argument, and of course all the preparation work that has already been done. You appear to have ignored all the work that has been done between Bedford and Kettering.

 

[HSTEd]

Once again you are conveniently ignoring the facts to suit your own argument, and of course all the preparation work that has already been done. You appear to have ignored all the work that has been done between Bedford and Kettering.

Yes, but I also note that the NR electrification equipment that was supposed to deliver operational wiring at a fraction of the cost of BR Mk3 equipment has spectacularily failed to deliver, and that both major electrification schemes are now over budget and behind schedule. Combined with a very low oil price the entire electrification programme is now in jeopardy.

It seems unlikely that work will actually begin before May, at which point we will spend another 9 months to a year faffing around running yet more analyses to suit the new government, whoever they will be.

 

[Chris125]

There is an election on the way. I would not be surprised if HS2 is kicked in to the long grass, particularly the eastern leg via Sheffield to Leeds. There is a deficit and money needs to be saved.
I think that the western leg will be built to Birmingham and Manchester, however the Eastern link will be put on hold to save money and will never see the light of day again.
The quicker the MML is electrified the better.

IIRC the eastern leg has a superior business case to the western leg and won't begin construction until the following parliament by which time the deficit should be less of an issue. IMO the actual money saved compared to the political cost of favouring the North West over the North East (and the impact on the case for HS2) makes that a highly unlikely outcome anyway.

Chris

 

[RichmondCommu]

Yes, but I also note that the NR electrification equipment that was supposed to deliver operational wiring at a fraction of the cost of BR Mk3 equipment has spectacularily failed to deliver, and that both major electrification schemes are now over budget and behind schedule. Combined with a very low oil price the entire electrification programme is now in jeopardy.

It seems unlikely that work will actually begin before May, at which point we will spend another 9 months to a year faffing around running yet more analyses to suit the new government, whoever they will be.

So are you denying that no work has been done with regard to the MML electrification project north of Bedford?

Who has suggested that the MML electrification project is behind schedule? Or have you made that up?

Basic economics here but sadly the oil price will not stay low forever. And besides I thought you were in favour of electrification? Or was that another flavour of the month?

What makes you think that work is unlikely to start before May given that much of the bridge work south of Kettering is now complete?

 

[HSTEd]

So are you denying that no work has been done with regard to the MML electrification project north of Bedford?

I am denying that no work has been done, because I accept that some work has been done.

Who has suggested that the MML electrification project is behind schedule? Or have you made that up?

The project has barely begun - the two projects that are late and overbudget are the GWML and the Liverpool-Manchester mess.
Oh and then theres TPE which is a disaster.

Basic economics here but sadly the oil price will not stay low forever.

The geopolitical factors of behind the low oil price are unlikely to subside soon, the Saudis will keep trying to obliterate shale oil and punish the Iranians and America will likely continue to prop up its shale industry on the grounds of domestic security.
Saudi cash reserves are the limiting factor and are sufficient to keep this up for nigh on a decade.

And besides I thought you were in favour of electrification? Or was that another flavour of the month?

One can be in favour of electrification but not believe it is going to happen.
I would like an entirely electrified railway but that does not mean I have to blindly support 125mph running on the Midland Main Line.

What makes you think that work is unlikely to start before May given that much of the bridge work south of Kettering is now complete?

The fact that the Network Rail OLE equipment has failed to live up to the promises that were made, and the fact that we now discover that an enormous bill will be landing on NRs desk for the upgrade of the equipment south of Bedford for higher speeds.
This will likely force a pause in the programme, or a very large fraction of that precious 125mph running you go on about will be lost.

 

[RichmondCommu]

The project has barely begun - the two projects that are late and overbudget are the GWML and the Liverpool-Manchester.
Oh and then theres TPE which is a disaster.

So what relevance does that have to the MML project? Especially given that the MML project will not be using the same methods.

The geopolitical factors of behind the low oil price are unlikely to subside soon, the Saudis will keep trying to obliterate shale oil and punish the Iranians and America will likely continue to prop up its shale industry on the grounds of domestic security.
Saudi cash reserves are the limiting factor and are sufficient to keep this up for nigh on a decade.

The Saudis have substantial cash reserves but that certainly will not support low oil prices for anything like a decade as they have infrastructure projects which require funding. Within in two years or less the price of oil will be back up towards $80 per barrel. That is certainly not a decade.

One can be in favour of electrification but not believe it is going to happen.
I would like an entirely electrified railway but that does not mean I have to blindly support 125mph running on the Midland Main Line.

The fact that the Network Rail OLE equipment has failed to live up to the promises that were made, and the fact that we now discover that an enormous bill will be landing on NRs desk for the upgrade of the equipment south of Bedford for higher speeds.
This will likely force a pause in the programme, or a very large fraction of that precious 125mph running you go on about will be lost.

Network Rail may well have got their sums wrong but there is nothing to suggest that the project will be delayed because of it. The GWML and the North West projects have not been delayed because of cost overruns.

 

[HSTEd]

So what relevance does that have to the MML project? Especially given that the MML project will not be using the same methods.

Its not going to be using NR's new range of electrification equipment that it claimed was to be used for every project now?
Oh great, another range of equipment that will need debugging.

The Saudis have substantial cash reserves but that certainly will not support low oil prices for anything like a decade as they have infrastructure projects which require funding. Within in two years or less the price of oil will be back up towards $80 per barrel. That is certainly not a decade.

The saudis are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars - they can fund every infrastructure project they have planned and still keep this up for years.
And its questionable about whether the oil price will ever get that high again - shale oil techniques are constantly improving and appear viable at $60/bbl, and oil sands techniques are also improving towards that sort of price level.
The reserves available using these technologies are absolutely titanic.

Network Rail may well have got their sums wrong but there is nothing to suggest that the project will be delayed because of it. The GWML and the North West projects have not been delayed because of cost overruns.

No, but that was because they have been handed a huge pot of money - how long will this pot hold out before a review if every single project keeps going over budget?

 

[RichmondCommu]

Its not going to be using NR's new range of electrification equipment that it claimed was to be used for every project now?
Oh great, another range of equipment that will need debugging.

No they are simply planning to used the same methods that were employed on the ECML electrification. Or at least that's what I can gather.

The saudis are sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars - they can fund every infrastructure project they have planned and still keep this up for years.
And its questionable about whether the oil price will ever get that high again - shale oil techniques are constantly improving and appear viable at $60/bbl, and oil sands techniques are also improving towards that sort of price level.
The reserves available using these technologies are absolutely titanic.

You clearly know very little about the Saudi economy and indeed about the world economy. The demand for oil is currently very low, in particular in China. That will not last forever and as demand increases so will the price of oil. All the leading economists are suggesting that the price of oil will be back to around $80 per barrel in around two years and I'm inclined to believe them.

No, but that was because they have been handed a huge pot of money - how long will this pot hold out before a review if every single project keeps going over budget?

I would suggest that the DfT is committed to all of the CP5 projects. However future projects such as HS2-2 maybe more questionable, certainly in terms of their timescales.

 

[NotATrainspott]

The primary justification for putting wires up is not the price of oil, so any recent developments there are utterly insignificant. The Labour government believed that the future of the railways was bio-fuels and that proved to be complete rubbish as well.

 

[HSTEd]

You clearly know very little about the Saudi economy and indeed about the world economy. The demand for oil is currently very low, in particular in China. That will not last forever and as demand increases so will the price of oil. All the leading economists are suggesting that the price of oil will be back to around $80 per barrel in around two years and I'm inclined to believe them.

We appear to be witnessing the last gasp of the OPEC cartel.
Even if it succeeds in driving away the shale producers that engineering knowledge will not dissapear in a hurry - and wills imply come back the second the price rebounds. It will, at best, be a phyrric victory.

If OPEC is broken by this oil slump it would appear that we will return to something like a competitive oil market, at which point the price of production will have a major determining effect on the cost of oil (in a competitive market the price is the marginal price of production sort of thing).
The worlds forseable oil demand appears meetable at ~$60 a barrel thanks to continuing improvements in 'Light Tight Oil' production and even in the increasing production of oil sands (although less so).

LTO resources are collosal, something like conventional oil in scale, and are far more widely scattered. This seems to militate against any return to a cartel any time soon. And the view of economists on the future of oil prices is far from certain, just look at the constant downgrading of long range price expectations.

 

[21C101]

Sorry to be a party pooper but 125mph trains to Derby and Sheffield on the MML are going to be needed long after <s>new great Central</s> HS2 is built.

Anyone under the illusion that many people will travel by public transport from Sheffield, Derby and Nottingham to Toton/Meadowhall Parkways instead of using the MML ought to visit East Midlands Parkway and Ebbsfleet Parkway.

Yes a few people might decide to drive there who live in outlying towns but anyone who actually lives in the cities or is visting the cities is likely to stick with the MML because people prefer direct trains, even it if takes 15 mins longer.

 

[brianthegiant]

LTO resources are collosal, something like conventional oil in scale, and are far more widely scattered. This seems to militate against any return to a cartel any time soon. And the view of economists on the future of oil prices is far from certain, just look at the constant downgrading of long range price expectations.

My understanding is that the current low price is far from sustainable. many exporters are having to dump oil onto the market to make up for lower per barrel revenues, but can't do this indefinitely. Much production is no longer viable at this price so we'll see lot of shale etc producers going bust in the next six months after which prices will bounce back up as a surplus of supply kneejerks into a shortage of supply. Obviously not as high as they were, but clearly the current lows are due to a lag in the market between price and production which tends to exaggerate the swings.

Oil price is a factor but not the only one driving electrification, CCS Locos don't seem likely. I wonder how cost per Kg/Co2 decarbonising rail compares with decarbonising road transport. My guess is that it's lower, ecars & H2 cars seem like quite a costly solution and even 5% biofuel content was a disaster for food prices.

 

[Olaf]

How will that likly play out with DMU stock allocation if all three get put on hold, will it lead to the dft having to bite the bullet and order new builds of DMUs?

I would expect that the existing ones would just have to last longer if there is an expenditure review. In addition, any new build would not be delivered in time to fill the gap before the replacement vehicles were made irrelevant again.
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The usual fall-guy for cost overruns is the resignalling programme.
There are many non-electrification capital projects which could be cut/delayed.

I agree Electric Spine is vulnerable, but I would expect TP and MML to continue, pretty much whatever the cost - TP is political, and MML is an NR pet project.
East-West is also political, but there doesn't seem to be the willpower to electrify east of Bletchley yet, because of the design problems.

The ORR always said it would review projects at an early stage of development after a year - ie about now.
It's time NR had some successes to counter all the drift to the right.
Reading and New St still seem pretty much on track.

Some of the project may be high profile, but the scale of the problem will make the provision of new funds difficult by any party. Signal replacement projects have the benefit of reducing operational costs for NR, where as continuing with diesel operation is looking to work out cheaper than this time last year.

All is in flux though, and there are a few more left of field issues since my last post that could knock everything for six.
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I doubt anything will be explicitly cancelled given the political fallout, they'll simply push back the completion dates.

Yes, agreed.
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TP is high on the list for serious review given that the scope of the project as originally envisioned has still been neither finalised nor costed. In addition, the GBP 7Billion HS3 'proposal' will have disrupted progress on the TPE work until what it is intended to be (other than a media announcement) is defined.
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You could use that argument on any cuts to any department, but you have to start cutting some ware. There will be savage cuts to come and the railways will not be immune.

Plus the final cost of HS2 will still be closer to 75B GBP and up, than 50B GBP when you add in all the 'essential' extras that are talked about.
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It would seem that the December update to the CP5 Delivery Plan is also running late:
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/cp5-delivery-plan/cp5-enhancements-delivery-plan.pdf

 

[snowball]

Apparent progress on the Market Harborough realignment. This seems the best thread to report it.

Today on the DfT website there's an item on local transport schemes funded under the so-called "Growth Deals":

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/growth-deals-gain-momentum-firing-up-local-economies

They include the following:

http://maps.dft.gov.uk/expanding-growth-deals/#east-midlands

Midland Mainline Improvement Market Harborough Line Speed Improvements, Network Rail & Regional Partners

Market Harborough Line Speed and Station Improvement work to improve the journey time for non-stop passenger and freight train services – funding shared with Leicester and Leicestershire and Sheffield.

Subject to the Network Rail GRIP process

 

[edwin_m]

Apparent progress on the Market Harborough realignment. This seems the best thread to report it.

Today on the DfT website there's an item on local transport schemes funded under the so-called "Growth Deals":

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/growth-deals-gain-momentum-firing-up-local-economies

They include the following:

http://maps.dft.gov.uk/expanding-growth-deals/#east-midlands

That's potentially good news, although I'm sure the GRIP process provides plenty of opportunities to wriggle out of it. Now all we need is a timetable where the Nottingham fast doesn't stop at Harborough...

 

[LeeLivery]

Sorry to be a party pooper but 125mph trains to Derby and Sheffield on the MML are going to be needed long after <s>new great Central</s> HS2 is built.

Anyone under the illusion that many people will travel by public transport from Sheffield, Derby and Nottingham to Toton/Meadowhall Parkways instead of using the MML ought to visit East Midlands Parkway and Ebbsfleet Parkway.

Yes a few people might decide to drive there who live in outlying towns but anyone who actually lives in the cities or is visting the cities is likely to stick with the MML because people prefer direct trains, even it if takes 15 mins longer.

Agreed. The East Midland branch of HS2 seems like a total waste of time and money to me. Hardly anyone even uses Stratford International and thats right in the middle of the Olympic Park! Southeastern Highspeed services are only popular for two reasons: A - they run on the "classic lines" around the Kent coast and B - the 375 services into London Victoria have been drastically altered and are much, much slower. If HS2 services actually served Sheffield Midland then I could understand a slight reduction, but as much as they will deny it, fares will be higher and will be a turn off unless they destroy MML services. The same can be said for Nottingham & Derby - Totton or Breaston is just stupidly far from Derby. We all know most people use public transport/walk to the station, and knowing that most buses and all trams in Nottingham go Broadmarsh, and trains from the surrounding towns go Nottingham Midland, MML will be the route for most. Like often said the extra time taken to get to HS2 will contradict the whole point of HSR.

I very much doubt the East Coast will take Nottingham services. They've floated this stupid idea around for years and its just like a myth. It makes no sense and causes more headaches than "solutions" (a solution to something that doesn't need solving). The Southern ECML is full and with extra Great Northern services in the future is only going to get worse. The Grantham to Nottingham would need electrification too. With the four tracking of the MML (i.e. more room than the ECML) and a large amount of people from Bedfordshire, Northants (population planned to grow rapidly) and Leicestershire going Nottingham, the Nottingham to St Pancras trains will remain.

 

[Bald Rick]

Hardly anyone even uses Stratford International and thats right in the middle of the Olympic Park!

Almost a million people a year will disagree with you. That would be more than use, say, Wellingborough or Market Harborough.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Agreed. The East Midland branch of HS2 seems like a total waste of time and money to me. Hardly anyone even uses Stratford International and thats right in the middle of the Olympic Park! Southeastern Highspeed services are only popular for two reasons: A - they run on the "classic lines" around the Kent coast and B - the 375 services into London Victoria have been drastically altered and are much, much slower. If HS2 services actually served Sheffield Midland then I could understand a slight reduction, but as much as they will deny it, fares will be higher and will be a turn off unless they destroy MML services. The same can be said for Nottingham & Derby - Totton or Breaston is just stupidly far from Derby. We all know most people use public transport/walk to the station, and knowing that most buses and all trams in Nottingham go Broadmarsh, and trains from the surrounding towns go Nottingham Midland, MML will be the route for most. Like often said the extra time taken to get to HS2 will contradict the whole point of HSR.

I'm not sure Stratford International is directly comparable with Toton and Meadowhall. Stratford International suffers from very relatively poor access given the area: Most people travelling into London will want to use local buses/trains/underground to complete their journeys, but those all go to Stratford main, not Stratford International. The result is that Stratford International is quite inconvenient to use unless you're either heading for the shopping centre or you can get to your final destination on the DLR - and the proportion of potential passengers falling into either of those categories isn't going to be too big. I'd imagine that if they'd aligned HS1 a little further south, and built the station as part of Stratford main instead of a separate station, then usage would have been massively higher (I've never quite understood why they didn't, but that's getting way off topic)

By contrast, both Toton and Meadowhall are in areas where a lot of people will want to drive to the station - they are both in very convenient locations for that. And both will be served by the only light rail lines in their areas, by quite a few bus routes, and Meadowhall additionally by various other national rail services - so in terms of the areas they serve, they both are arguably relatively well placed.

As for HS2 - I think you will find a lot of people use it to get into Central London because it's a fair bit faster than the classic SouthEastern lines were even before the Ashford-Tonbridge route was slowed down. (Massively quicker, for example from Gravesend to central London).

 

[edwin_m]

By contrast, both Toton and Meadowhall are in areas where a lot of people will want to drive to the station - they are both in very convenient locations for that. And both will be served by the only light rail lines in their areas, by quite a few bus routes, and Meadowhall additionally by various other national rail services - so in terms of the areas they serve, they both are arguably relatively well placed.

That's exactly my concern about Toton in particular. All the other cities served by HS2 have a choice of a station near the hub of the local public transport network or one that's easy to drive to (Meadowhall offers both at the same place). Although Toton has railways it has no passenger trains, and introducing some would be very difficult for reasons of network capacity and cost, unless it involves diverting and decelerating an existing service. At 16 stops the tram is of little use for central Nottingham and Derby is reliant on buses. Yes it's driveable, but that favours the affluent with cars over the less affluent and those who are trying to do the right thing transport-wise. It also favours outward travel over the inward visitors who will probably boost the local economy more.

So, particularly if Toton is chosen over Breaston, there is still a need to provide a good-quality service on the MML to Nottingham and Derby. Fast London journeys should come down to under 90min with electric traction, Market Harborough remodelling and removal of East Midlands Parkway stops from faster trains (Toton will do the same job much better). This is competitive with London via Toton in all situations except if a direct connecting train is provided with slick connections to each HS2 service.

Sheffield perhaps less so because the transfer to Meadowhall is easier and less of a penalty in view of the longer classic journey time.

 

[LeeLivery]

Almost a million people a year will disagree with you. That would be more than use, say, Wellingborough or Market Harborough.

Less than 1 million people compered to 26 million NR and 55 million LU at Stratford is tiny and small for London. Compering Wellingborough (only a few thousand less people using) 2tph to London, 1 to Corby and 1 to Nottingham. Market Harborough has 2tph to London and 2 to Nottingham. If they had a better timetable which they deserve the usage would have been higher. Stratford Int has 4 to St Pancras, 4 to Kent and a DLR interchange, right next to the largest urban shopping centre in Europe. Stratford International right now is an over-sized empty concrete box.
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By contrast, both Toton and Meadowhall are in areas where a lot of people will want to drive to the station - they are both in very convenient locations for that. And both will be served by the only light rail lines in their areas, by quite a few bus routes, and Meadowhall additionally by various other national rail services - so in terms of the areas they serve, they both are arguably relatively well placed.

As for HS2 - I think you will find a lot of people use it to get into Central London because it's a fair bit faster than the classic SouthEastern lines were even before the Ashford-Tonbridge route was slowed down. (Massively quicker, for example from Gravesend to central London).

I doubt people will want to go out of town (quite far if Breaston is chosen) to get a train. I just don't see it. As for Meadowhall if you lived in say Halfway, would you really want to double your journey to the station to get to London? Thats what half of Sheffield would have to do. If I'm near Liverpool Street and want to go Cambridge, I wouldn't bother to go King's Cross because the train is non-stop - it would be a waste of time.

As for Southeastern classics, I did say the service was drastically changed and is much slower, not slower because of the change of timetable.
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That's exactly my concern about Toton in particular. All the other cities served by HS2 have a choice of a station near the hub of the local public transport network or one that's easy to drive to (Meadowhall offers both at the same place). Although Toton has railways it has no passenger trains, and introducing some would be very difficult for reasons of network capacity and cost, unless it involves diverting and decelerating an existing service. At 16 stops the tram is of little use for central Nottingham and Derby is reliant on buses. Yes it's driveable, but that favours the affluent with cars over the less affluent and those who are trying to do the right thing transport-wise. It also favours outward travel over the inward visitors who will probably boost the local economy more.

So, particularly if Toton is chosen over Breaston, there is still a need to provide a good-quality service on the MML to Nottingham and Derby. Fast London journeys should come down to under 90min with electric traction, Market Harborough remodelling and removal of East Midlands Parkway stops from faster trains (Toton will do the same job much better). This is competitive with London via Toton in all situations except if a direct connecting train is provided with slick connections to each HS2 service.

Sheffield perhaps less so because the transfer to Meadowhall is easier and less of a penalty in view of the longer classic journey time.

Indeed, if I was visiting Nottingham (where I will be living for three years) I want to jump of a train in Nottingham, preferably the city centre, not outside of the city, let alone outside the County (Breaston).

 

[swt_passenger]

I suspect that Stratford International will suddenly see a significant increase in usage once Oyster PAYG becomes valid there, as recently announced.

 

[21C101]

I suspect that Stratford International will suddenly see a significant increase in usage once Oyster PAYG becomes valid there, as recently announced.

Especially with about 10 million square feet of offices springing up around it. It will become Londons oddest tube line!

I can forsee some St Pancras - Stratford shuttles being needed in a few years to supplement the roughly 15 minute interval service.

 

[Kettledrum]

Fast London journeys should come down to under 90min with electric traction, Market Harborough remodelling and removal of East Midlands Parkway stops from faster trains (Toton will do the same job much better). This is competitive with London via Toton in all situations except if a direct connecting train is provided with slick connections to each HS2 service.

I'm not convinced Toton would do the same job much better than East Midlands Parkway as it's on the wrong side of the River Trent for many of the East Midlands Parkway passengers. I'm a regular user of East Midlands Parkway, but I wouldn't be able to use Toton - I'd probably go back to using Derby or Loughborough if it wasn't there.

Toton might attract a minority, and also take some who currently use Long Eaton, Beeston, Nottingham and Derby stations

East Midlands Parkway should also be more attractive once the A453 roadworks are completed to make it dual carridge-way.

Stopping the "faster" trains from stopping at East Midlands Parkway isn't going to make it any more attractive either.

Operationally, stopping the fast Nottingham trains there shouldn't add too much to their overall journey times as it's so close to Nottingham anyway, and encourages passengers to us it as a park and ride for Nottingham - which is one of the things the station was designed for.

I do like the ideas of Market Harborough re-modelling though - these are long overdue.

A much easier way to shave 2 minutes off my journey time to London would be to get people through the ticket barriers at St Pancras quicker.

Telling me how quickly the journey times are these days and how minutes have been saved, doesn't impress me when I get to St Pancras, only to find a limited number of ticket barriers are open and the ones that are open, are not working properly, and big queues have built up, thus extending my overall journey time.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm not convinced Toton would do the same job much better than East Midlands Parkway as it's on the wrong side of the River Trent for many of the East Midlands Parkway passengers. I'm a regular user of East Midlands Parkway, but I wouldn't be able to use Toton - I'd probably go back to using Derby or Loughborough if it wasn't there.

Possibly, but assuming they have to drive to Parkway (as there's effectively no other way of getting there) wouldn't most people just go one junction up the M1 to Toton (or Breaston)? The train from Toton to London will be about 30min quicker than from Parkway.

Loughborough station is reasonably easy to get into by road from the north and east so would be a substitute for those who didn't want to go to Toton. And the Parkway would probably remain open for slower trains, possibly requiring a change at Leicester.

 

[brianthegiant]

See 'East Midlands Hub' thread here: http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=107580

 

[Bald Rick]

Especially with about 10 million square feet of offices springing up around it. It will become Londons oddest tube line!

I can forsee some St Pancras - Stratford shuttles being needed in a few years to supplement the roughly 15 minute interval service.

Quite.

For as long as I can remember, we have moaned in this country for not providing the infrastructure prior to demand. And on the rare occasions* we do provide capacity ahead of demand, we moan!

* still waiting for the M69 to be busy...

 

[joeykins82]

I can forsee some St Pancras - Stratford shuttles being needed in a few years to supplement the roughly 15 minute interval service.

More likely St Pancras - Ebbsfleet shuttles, and even then I think it'd need for TfL/SE to offer a plus HS1 option on z1-3 (or more) travelcards to see a big shift in usage.

 

[76020]

Just done a return trip from London to Leicester today and I was wondering when will the ground work start? Quiet a few bridges have been rebuilt but I could not see pilling or concrete foundations anywhere north of Bedford or did I?, about 5-10 miles north of Bedford near Sharnbrook Junction I swore I saw about 10 piles on the down side in this area, can anybody confirm this? Anyway if the target date for Corby is 2017 they better start very soon otherwise it will be another electrification target date missed.