MML vs ECML some thoughts

[cactustwirly]

This argument is statistically ridiculous- you’re not comparing like-to-like. Leeds and Edinburgh may skew the stats wildly, but you can’t just ignore them and say all is fine and dandy whilst you happily include Sheffield (lots of Northern/XC/TPE passengers) and Derby (EMT locals and XC)! There is patently not enough info in the usage stats to gauge this...you would need stats on how much each route is used.

This is very true...it’s often cheaper and quicker to go via Donny/Tamworth than go MML - EMT are managing to lose out to competition on a franchised railway, which is about as close to a monopoly as governments will allow.

Yes in an ideal world I would have the usage stats for just the IC services, but it isn't, and Leeds has a disproportionate usage compared to all of the other stations.
Yes Derby and Sheffield have connecting services, but so does Leicester, Peterborough and Doncaster!
But my point is that, Leeds has a much denser network of lines, which makes it much more difficult to determine usage of LNER services.
Same with Edinburgh, which has lots of Scotrail services, and the train has a much smaller modal share to London than all the other cities, which makes the usage stats useless in this case.

All I'm saying is that the usage figures gives us a rough idea about the usage of both the ECML and MML for intercity travel, and that the MML is relatively close to the ECML figures, even though one is the premier route, and the other is considered a 'rural backwater' in comparison.

However the usage figures show that apart from Leeds and Edinburgh, the MML is just as important as the ECML in the places it serves, arguably the MML should be higher as Nottingham, Leicester, Derby etc have a much higher population than Peterborough, Doncaster etc.

If you read the EMT franchise thread it's clear that some people think that the, MML isn't a 'proper intercity' route. It should be a thought as a major intercity line just like the ECML, WCML, GWML etc, and therefore it should get the same level of investment as the other lines, such as proper length trains, electrification, proper Sunday timetables etc.

 

[sheff1]

Example of the Oct 1989 timetable (beautiful black cover) at hand shows from London:

Thanks for that. I did, of course, mean 4 trains per 2 hours from Leicester - post amended.

 

[Bald Rick]

Where and when were these 3 trains every 2 hours ?

Certainly in the 70s, and fairly sure early to mid 80s. It only went to 2tph in InterCity days.

 

[TheBigD]

Back in my YTS days (1988/9) the MML service was every 90 minutes to Leicester (terminate) and every 90 minutes to both Nottingham and Sheffield, meaning every 30 minutes London to Leicester. A real mixed bag of stopping patterns South of Leicester.

 

[Helvellyn]

Look at the road network that criss-crosses the Midland Mainline including the M1. The curvatious nature of the route has been a big hinderance to consistently higher line speeds as well - Wellingborough and Market Harborough (though the latter is being addressed). And it has no long distance markets to the North so it is a limited set of passenger flows.

And look at ticket prices for Seasons - Northampton or Huntingdon to London are cheaper than Wellingborough or Kettering reflecting the latter is an InterCity route and is priced as such.

What does the future hold? New bi-modes but still two trains per hour to Sheffield and Nottingham. Maybe Corby will go two per hour and check maybe Thameslink will head there as well.

 

[Starmill]

Raw station usage figures are of remarkably little use. They need to be broken up by sector, into long-distance passengers to draw a valuable comparison. At the moment somebody with a Meadowhall to Sheffield Annual Season is contributing hundreds to the Sheffield figures, wheras somebody with a First Anytime Return from Sheffield to London is contributing only two. There is not much difference in price.

The talk of the LNER being a 'golden goose' or darling operation is a bit difficult to understand too. Are you just talking about chasing the money, or something emotional or 'historic' like links to old locos or what might be the most famous piece of children's fiction in the world?

If you are talking about annual passenger fares revenues, the intercity railway link between London and Paris / Brussels generates more (£797 million) than the one between London and Leeds / Newcastle / Edinburgh (£741 million). Neither generate as much as the one between London and Birmingham / Manchester / Liverpool / Glasgow (£1,083 million). We have no numbers for the intercity revenues between London and Leicester, Nottingham, Derby and Sheffield because they are all mixed up in with regional routes. East Midlands Trains generated £375 million in the same period as the above figres (2016/17) though. How much to take out for the regional operation? Well I have no idea to be honest. Random guess? About 10 -15%? So you are looking at £300 - 330 million a year maybe? I'll let you draw your own conclusions from guesswork.

A little context on the scale of this operation - Transport for London's revenue from London Buses was about £1.5 billion. HSBC, about £85 billion, BP about £300 billion.

 

[Mag_seven]

I wouldn't say it's not considered important but I've always considered the ECML as UK's flagship railway, even above the WCML.

The WCML has in my opinion always been the premier main line in the UK linking London with Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow.

 

[Starmill]

The WCML has in my opinion always been the premier main line in the UK linking London with Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow.

I've always thought that, and the numbers above suggest that it is still in that postion. Only GTR generated more fares revenue in 2017, and it seems that it is likely to be broken up agian at the next re-franchising.

 

[cuccir]

Apples and oranges. The MML connects much larger cities and towns to London and each other. They're much closer to both London and each other, and it has by comparison to the other mainlines, no long distance services - Sheffield is 2h10 from London. It's competitor is the M1..

The ECML connects two large urban areas to London (Tyneside, Leeds-Bradford) but the rest are generally much smaller than their MML comparisons. It covers bigger distances, both between London and its stops, and between the stops themselves: Edinburgh to York takes 2h30. It competes with internal flights.

I don't really see the value therefore in comparison or getting het up about which is more or less 'prestigous' on some imagined scale!

 

[Starmill]

We're also completely ignoring the connection between Leeds and Newcastle, which is pretty significant and now has 3tph, but this broadly does not go in the East Coast franchise.

 

[MCSHF007]

How is it a commuter line?
Sheffield is 200 miles from London!

Really? Are you Diane Abbott in disguise?

The MML is OKish Sundays excepted. The Sunday service is truly dire though - it really shouldn't take 3 hours to/from Sheffield.

 

[Royston Vasey]

How is it a commuter line?

Cambridge is what, 50 miles from London?
Leicester is 100 miles, Nottingham 130, and Sheffield is 200 miles from London!
Leicester is more comparable to Swindon than Cambridge (in terms of service level)

It's clearly an intercity line, it should have equal importance to the GWML at least!

Because of who uses it and how, by definition.

The GWML out to Swindon and Bristol is practically a commuter line too.

 

[DanDaDriver]

I remember people on twitter baffled they spent millions on 125mph for the Midland to save a few minutes that quite frankly isn't very noticeable...

Probably more noticeable if the entire line south of Bedford wasn’t flooded with 100mph commuter trains given priority over everything else.

 

[LeeLivery]

Thanks for that. I did, of course, mean 4 trains per 2 hours from Leicester - post amended.

Ah! No worries.

The WCML has in my opinion always been the premier main line in the UK linking London with Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow.

I've always thought that, and the numbers above suggest that it is still in that postion. Only GTR generated more fares revenue in 2017, and it seems that it is likely to be broken up agian at the next re-franchising.

I'd never argue passenger figures, it's certainly the busiest and most vital railway. For some reason I just see the ECML differently, it is probably just down is history if I'm honest.

Probably more noticeable if the entire line south of Bedford wasn’t flooded with 100mph commuter trains given priority over everything else.

Well exactly, but a slightly late EMT is inconvenient, a slightly late TL in the core causes 4-5 trains chasing red signals. With the way the network is going, 6 tracks would've been ideal south of Luton and east of Maidenhead. The WCML is rather lucky south of Watford.

 

[button_boxer]

I’d definitely question the Sheffield figure, as I’d hardly dismiss all the Leeds commuter and stopping services and the trans Pennine flows as mere “connecting services” into the London ones - Sheffield to Manchester and the airport is a huge market in its own right and the airport trains often have bigger crowds on the platform than the London ones.

 

[whhistle]

... the East Midlands franchise ITT TSR tables don’t actually require any services to Leeds at all, Leeds is not mentioned in the ITT text either.
AIUI the services provided now are a side effect of the HSTs being maintained at Neville Hill.

I guess that will be gone (together with the stupidly long Leeds service on a Saturday) with the HSTs are replaced.

 

[yorksrob]

I guess that will be gone (together with the stupidly long Leeds service on a Saturday) with the HSTs are replaced.

Yes, it will be a shame for us West Yorkshire based MML users.

I still regard it as a proper InterCity service, whatever anyone says. I've been on enough regional and commuter trains to know the difference !

 

[70014IronDuke]

Certainly in the 70s, and fairly sure early to mid 80s. It only went to 2tph in InterCity days.

AIRI, this is correct-ish. It was either 1975 or 1976 that, with the recession, inflation and budget deficit problems, BR was ordered to make savings. On the Midland, the very effective 1 semi-fast, 1 express system (ie 2 trains per hour ex St Pancras) alternating Derby and Leicester was cut back during the day to what roughly amounted to 3 trains per two hours. It was, perhaps, with the introduction of HSTs in Oct 1982 that the reintroduced a system of two trains an hour - at least for much of the day outside the peaks. Only then it was semi-fast (with Cl 45) leaving 50 mins in front of the HST.

 

[cactustwirly]

Added the population figures in, makes some interesting reading.
Without Leeds, the MML would serve a greater population, but the difference in usage is greater than the difference in population.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Apples and oranges. The MML connects much larger cities and towns to London and each other. They're much closer to both London and each other, and it has by comparison to the other mainlines, no long distance services - Sheffield is 2h10 from London. It's competitor is the M1..

The ECML connects two large urban areas to London (Tyneside, Leeds-Bradford) but the rest are generally much smaller than their MML comparisons. It covers bigger distances, both between London and its stops, and between the stops themselves: Edinburgh to York takes 2h30. It competes with internal flights.

I don't really see the value therefore in comparison or getting het up about which is more or less 'prestigous' on some imagined scale!

This pretty much sums it up. As for the ECML having connections with Mallard - I doubt even 0.1% of normals have a clue, and it wouldn't make much difference to those that do.

Taking out enthusiast romanticism, in terms of populations served, the LNW Euston line is the premier line - that's why it was chosen for electrification in 1955. And the ECML is more or less just ahead of PAddington-Bristol/S Wales.

Where the Midland did lose out, I would argue, is that post war the (fully justified) investment into the LNW route created a virtuous circle - because the same route then needed more investment to cope with the improved loadings. And, because of the limited investment budget, this restricted, or sucked out investment from the Midland. Apart from the Bedford - St Pancras DMUs (1959) and the introduction of Cl 45s (1960-62), the Midland proper* struggled on with 90% semaphore signalling and 90 mph max speed from 62 into the late 70s and into the mid-80s north of Bedford. And with awful restrictions like the 50 mph (or so) at Wigston and Mkt Harborough.

* I mean purely from London - Derby and Toton were of course resignalled c 1969, but I expect these investments were partly costed to NE-SW services.

I dare say the GE lines to Kings Lynn and Norwich also felt hit by the same problem vis-a-vis the GN - but their populations were and are clearly far less than those on the Midland.

 

[cuccir]

Why was the GNR from London to York built via Grantham/Newark and not a little more to the west - at least via Nottingham and Leicester, the more easterly of the East Midlands cities? Was it about cheap and available land and a more direct route? Intuitively, it would seem that there's more business in sending the line via the larger cities.

 

[cactustwirly]

Apples and oranges. The MML connects much larger cities and towns to London and each other. They're much closer to both London and each other, and it has by comparison to the other mainlines, no long distance services - Sheffield is 2h10 from London. It's competitor is the M1..

The ECML connects two large urban areas to London (Tyneside, Leeds-Bradford) but the rest are generally much smaller than their MML comparisons. It covers bigger distances, both between London and its stops, and between the stops themselves: Edinburgh to York takes 2h30. It competes with internal flights.

I don't really see the value therefore in comparison or getting het up about which is more or less 'prestigous' on some imagined scale!

So by that logic, the GWML to Bristol/Cardiff, WCML to Birmingham/Manchester aren't long distance services either?
Yes it's competitor is the M1, so what? The competitor of the GWML is the M4, and the WCML is the M6...

 

[70014IronDuke]

Why was the GNR from London to York built via Grantham/Newark and not a little more to the west - at least via Nottingham and Leicester, the more easterly of the East Midlands cities? Was it about cheap and available land and a more direct route? Intuitively, it would seem that there's more business in sending the line via the larger cities.

Because the GN would then have been called "The Midland Railway"

Seriously, ITYWF it's down to the plural of dirty four-letter word in railway civil engineering speak.

Clue: it starts with H, contains a vowel, and two 'L's.

And the Midland is full of them, exept between Leicester and Nottingham/Derby.

 

[ainsworth74]

I get your point, but the skewing happens to a smaller extent at Sheffield than at Leeds.
Leeds has a dense commuter rail network and obviously has XC and TPE as well, so it's difficult to make a direct comparison.

Pardon?! Sheffield in a typical weekday hour has the following Northern departures:

• xx02 to Leeds (via Barnsley slow)
• xx05 to Nottingham
• xx05 to Adwick
• xx14 to Manchester Piccadilly
• xx15 to Leeds (via Moorthorpe)
• xx18 to Leeds (via Barnsley fast)
• xx24 to Bridlington (via Hull fast)
• xx30 to Hull (slow)
• xx35 to Huddersfield
• xx37 to Lincoln
• xx45 to Leeds (via Barnsley fast)

Then the following CrossCountry and Transpennine Express departures as well:

• xx10 to Cleethorpes
• xx11 to Manchester Airport
• xx21 to Edinburgh
• xx24 to Reading
• xx51 to Newcastle
• xx55 to Plymouth

A total of sum seventeen services per hour. Shall we look at East Midlands Trains via the MML in a typical weekday hour?

• xx00 to London St Pancras
• xx29 to London St Pancras

Let's be kind and add in all the other services that EMT provide from Sheffield in a typical hour:

• xx38 to Norwich
• xx41 to Liverpool Lime Street

That's a grand total of, er, four. Four trains per hour run by EMT versus seventeen run by Northern, CrossCountry and Transpennine Express. Forgive me but if you're going to exclude Leeds on the basis of all the other services distorting the figures then you have to exclude Sheffield. Unless you wish to suggest that all services other than EMT are carting around fresh air whilst all EMT services are full and standing on departure from Sheffield?

 

[Senex]

Why was the GNR from London to York built via Grantham/Newark and not a little more to the west - at least via Nottingham and Leicester, the more easterly of the East Midlands cities? Was it about cheap and available land and a more direct route? Intuitively, it would seem that there's more business in sending the line via the larger cities.

It was deliberately promoted and built as a direct route from London to York (though the GN never actually got beyond Shaftholme Jn), avoiding the detour of the original route from Euston through Leicester, Derby, Masborough, and Normanton. The original GN scheme included branches from Bawtry to Sheffield and from Doncaster to Wakefield, but these were abandoned.

 

[DarloRich]

look, any fule know the east coast is the premier route. Why? Serves Darlo...........

My completely unscientific view: I always find the MML a bit of a backwater and more of a regional route with a commuter line stuck on the southern end. The ECML and WCML feel like express railways. The MML doesn't. Why I don't know.

 

[43096]

The ECML and WCML feel like express railways. The MML doesn't. Why I don't know.

Pushing the MML terminus out to the four platform “bus shelter” at St. Pancras probably doesn’t help, especially when you look at the East Coast station over the road.

 

[DarloRich]

Pushing the MML terminus out to the four platform “bus shelter” at St. Pancras probably doesn’t help, especially when you look at the East Coast station over the road.

good point. I didn't consider that.

 

[NoOnesFool]

I agree that some MML stations have a terrible service (especially on Sundays) but stations such as Leicester I think have quite a good weekday service it could just do with longer trains.

You can't get much longer than the ten car formations already operating during the Peak periods.

 

[Table 52]

Clue: it starts with H, contains a vowel, and two 'L's.

Yes, Hull is an important connection achieved by running the line via Doncaster.