More Lockdowns?

[Bantamzen]

Depends what one means by the vaccine working. As Professor Van Tam put it; (paraphrase)
If you mean it prevents you getting covid after two doses then I would suggest people are whistling in the wind, I know some people who have had both doses and got covid a couploe of months after the second dose. If however you mean they didn't die or end up in hospital for a period of time then yes it has worked.

I think the point being made here is that some people seem to believe that unless the vaccines all but completely remove any pressure on the NHS then it has not done it's job, even though clearly that is not the aim. Such has been the pressure from government, NHS bosses and media alike that some have been convinced that nobody should ever be even falling slightly ill from covid, let alone ending up in hospital or dying. Of course we know no pressure isn't going to be the case, even with 75% of adults with both doses and 90% with at least one there will be illness and sadly there will be deaths. But the vaccines are now doing most of the lifting here and are bringing down serious illness to a level that is no overwhelming the NHS or anything close.

So few are saying the vaccines don't work, clearly they do. But they are not working the way some (mainly in the medical & scientific communities) would like, and it is they that are continuing to exert pressure on the government & by proxy the NHS bosses into thinking about more lockdowns. And given 18 months of cover, I suspect that NHS bosses have got quite used to hiding behind covid to not have to deal with the myriad of other problems the NHS has every single year.

 

[NorthKent1989]

The vaccines are working, I won’t deny that, my earlier post was regarding if there is another lockdown then the powers that be don’t have much faith in the vaccines.

 

[plugwash]

and are bringing down serious illness to a level that is no overwhelming the NHS or anything close.

The question is how high will cases go once the schools go back in September. The vaccines mean we have far less hospitalizations per case than we did last year, but we will be going into September with a far larger number of cases per capita than we did last year.

 

[Bantamzen]

The question is how high will cases go once the schools go back in September. The vaccines mean we have far less hospitalizations per case than we did last year, but we will be going into September with a far larger number of cases per capita than we did last year.

So what? If the vaccines prevent serious illnesses for most people why would we be concerned about the number of infections?

 

[plugwash]

During the wave last winter the 7 day average of cases peaked at about 52.6K, the 7 day average of hospitalisations peaked at around 4.1K so the hospitalisation rate peaked at around 7.8% of the case rate.

During the recent peak, the 7 day average of cases peaked at around 48.2K, the 7 day average of hospitalisations peaked at around 950 so the hospitalisation rate peaked at around 1.9% of the case rate.

A factor 4 reduction in hospitalisations per case is certainly good news, but I don't think we can rule out cases going 4x higher than they did last year.

 

[Bantamzen]

During the wave last winter the 7 day average of cases peaked at about 52.6K, the 7 day average of hospitalisations peaked at around 4.1K so the hospitalisation rate peaked at around 7.8% of the case rate.

During the recent peak, the 7 day average of cases peaked at around 48.2K, the 7 day average of hospitalisations peaked at around 950 so the hospitalisation rate peaked at around 1.9% of the case rate.

A factor 4 reduction in hospitalisations per case is certainly good news, but I don't think we can rule out cases going 4x higher than they did last year.

Last winter practically no-one was vaccinated. By this coming winter we should have close to 90% of the adult population double dosed.

 

[LAX54]

Has anyone considered if employers will continue to pay London weighting to employees who are given a choice to work from home?
At the moment I assume such workers are pocketing monies intended for commuting and meal expenses etc.
Would there be as much enthusiasm for WFH if contracts were altered or wages frozen accordingly?
I’m not sure what the answer is but surely this issue will come to the fore .

Also, what is the rule, if there is one, about your home turning into a place of work long term ? Does it make a difference to Insurance etc ?
London Weighting I imagine would be stopped if you work from home, and that is more that the distance LW applies to, as you are 'not' working in London.

So what? If the vaccines prevent serious illnesses for most people why would we be concerned about the number of infections?

Which is the idea behind the vaccine ? reduce Hospital admissions, yes, reduce those that get it, but that will never be 100%, as for lockdowns, unless you call a halt, each lockdown leads to another, then another..until you force stop them !

 

[sjpowermac]

The question is how high will cases go once the schools go back in September. The vaccines mean we have far less hospitalizations per case than we did last year, but we will be going into September with a far larger number of cases per capita than we did last year.

Why do you think that schools might have an effect?

 

[Bikeman78]

During the wave last winter the 7 day average of cases peaked at about 52.6K, the 7 day average of hospitalisations peaked at around 4.1K so the hospitalisation rate peaked at around 7.8% of the case rate.

During the recent peak, the 7 day average of cases peaked at around 48.2K, the 7 day average of hospitalisations peaked at around 950 so the hospitalisation rate peaked at around 1.9% of the case rate.

A factor 4 reduction in hospitalisations per case is certainly good news, but I don't think we can rule out cases going 4x higher than they did last year.

It will run out of people to infect at some point. If it does spread like wildfire amongst school children then I expect most of them will have had it by now.

 

[takno]

During the wave last winter the 7 day average of cases peaked at about 52.6K, the 7 day average of hospitalisations peaked at around 4.1K so the hospitalisation rate peaked at around 7.8% of the case rate.

During the recent peak, the 7 day average of cases peaked at around 48.2K, the 7 day average of hospitalisations peaked at around 950 so the hospitalisation rate peaked at around 1.9% of the case rate.

A factor 4 reduction in hospitalisations per case is certainly good news, but I don't think we can rule out cases going 4x higher than they did last year.

Admissions are leading to hospital stays now that sometimes measure in the hours rather than days and weeks, and far fewer intensive care admissions, so the same level of admissions would lead to far fewer problems.

More importantly, the case rate measured by positive tests was only capturing about a third of the infections in January. Suggesting that we might go to 4x the actual cases would mean 600k cases per day. That's pretty much the entire population in three months, even though we expect 50% of people to be effectively immune thanks to the vaccine, and have a large number of people who are effectively immune thanks to recent cases. It's not going to happen.

 

[brad465]

Last winter practically no-one was vaccinated. By this coming winter we should have close to 90% of the adult population double dosed.

And by the sounds of things a good proportion of teenagers as well.

The wider reality here is the delta variant is a demonstration that humans are not above nature and no matter how hard we try to stop it doing what it does, nature gets better. As Q said in Skyfall "it's like trying to solve a rubik's cube that's fighting back." The widely quoted R0 for this variant is 5-8; I look at this and cannot in any way see how this virus can be controlled with lockdowns, as proven by New South Wales right now and in recent weeks. Only immunity can really control it, however it gets acquired. But of course, in accordance with human exceptionalism, we cannot bring ourselves to admit that maybe this virus/nature is too good for us.




So more lockdowns means more children having eyesight problems due to increased screen time according to this video:

Lockdown screen time damaging children's eyesight

Optometrists are diagnosing higher numbers of children with short-sightedness since the start of the pandemic.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[VauxhallandI]

What do the lockdown "not one more death" crew make of this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796

Vaccine death story due to blood clots; kinda undermines the argument doesn't it.

 

[Domh245]

What do the lockdown "not one more death" crew make of this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796

Vaccine death story due to blood clots; kinda undermines the argument doesn't it.

I'm not a "not one more death", and whilst this is a very sad occurrence, but doesn't change the fact that even the AZ vaccine is incredibly safe for most people, this story is regrettably newsworthy because it's a rare occurrence, and (because of this and a few other incidents) we've learned from it and changed who we administer that vaccine to

 

[VauxhallandI]

I'm not a "not one more death", and whilst this is a very sad occurrence, but doesn't change the fact that even the AZ vaccine is incredibly safe for most people, this story is regrettably newsworthy because it's a rare occurrence, and (because of this and a few other incidents) we've learned from it and changed who we administer that vaccine to

Oh I agree entirely. Just need to remind people who think things only happen one way and cry to lock a nation down and to hell with everything else as one more death from one particular thing is not on.

 

[NorthKent1989]

What do the lockdown "not one more death" crew make of this?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796

Vaccine death story due to blood clots; kinda undermines the argument doesn't it.

On my social media, the same people who said

“we should lockdown until 2022 if it saves one life”

Are now saying

“oh well it’s one vaccine death but that doesn’t justify the fact that people should be hesitant about taking it, you should still take jab regardless”

the hypocrisy astounds me.

 

[VauxhallandI]

On my social media, the same people who said

“we should lockdown until 2022 if it saves one life”

Are now saying

“oh well it’s one vaccine death but that doesn’t justify the fact that people should be hesitant about taking it, you should still take jab regardless”

the hypocrisy astounds me.

Yes this is the most frustrating thing about all of this. Mind numbing cretins trying to tell me I am wrong and believing they are so right when they can see one move ahead. How can these people be allowed to affect my life? The Government panders to the loudest most empty vessels maybe because it reflects themselves!

 

[kristiang85]

An interesting paper came from the CDC about COVID-19 severe illness underying conditions.

Underlying Medical Conditions and Severe Illness Among 540,667 Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19, March 2020–March 2021

Preventing Chronic Disease (PCD) is a peer-reviewed electronic journal established by the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. PCD provides an open exchange of information and knowledge among researchers, practitioners, policy makers, and others who strive to...

www.cdc.gov

Introduction

Severe COVID-19 illness in adults has been linked to underlying medical conditions. This study identified frequent underlying conditions and their attributable risk of severe COVID-19 illness.

Methods

We used data from more than 800 US hospitals in the Premier Healthcare Database Special COVID-19 Release (PHD-SR) to describe hospitalized patients aged 18 years or older with COVID-19 from March 2020 through March 2021. We used multivariable generalized linear models to estimate adjusted risk of intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and death associated with frequent conditions and total number of conditions.

Results

Among 4,899,447 hospitalized adults in PHD-SR, 540,667 (11.0%) were patients with COVID-19, of whom 94.9% had at least 1 underlying medical condition. Essential hypertension (50.4%), disorders of lipid metabolism (49.4%), and obesity (33.0%) were the most common. The strongest risk factors for death were obesity (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] = 1.30; 95% CI, 1.27–1.33), anxiety and fear-related disorders (aRR = 1.28; 95% CI, 1.25–1.31), and diabetes with complication (aRR = 1.26; 95% CI, 1.24–1.28), as well as the total number of conditions, with aRRs of death ranging from 1.53 (95% CI, 1.41–1.67) for patients with 1 condition to 3.82 (95% CI, 3.45–4.23) for patients with more than 10 conditions (compared with patients with no conditions).

Conclusion

Certain underlying conditions and the number of conditions were associated with severe COVID-19 illness. Hypertension and disorders of lipid metabolism were the most frequent, whereas obesity, diabetes with complication, and anxiety disorders were the strongest risk factors for severe COVID-19 illness. Careful evaluation and management of underlying conditions among patients with COVID-19 can help stratify risk for severe illness

So basically obesity and anxiety/fear-related disorders were the strongest risk factors in severe COVID-19 illness.

Yet the governments of the West banned us from doing exercise for periods, kept only fast food joints open, and put the fear of God into us all.

Lockdowns must never happen again, full stop.

 

[adc82140]

An interesting paper came from the CDC about COVID-19 severe illness underying conditions.

Underlying Medical Conditions and Severe Illness Among 540,667 Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19, March 2020–March 2021

Preventing Chronic Disease (PCD) is a peer-reviewed electronic journal established by the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. PCD provides an open exchange of information and knowledge among researchers, practitioners, policy makers, and others who strive to...

www.cdc.gov

So basically obesity and anxiety/fear-related disorders were the strongest risk factors in severe COVID-19 illness.

Yet the governments of the West banned us from doing exercise for periods, kept only fast food joints open, and put the fear of God into us all.

Lockdowns must never happen again, full stop.

This is interesting. One of my colleagues is terrified of Covid. Once he picked it up he became rather unwell and ended up in hospital. All came out in the wash in the end, fortunately. He has no other underlying health conditions.

I am not terrified of Covid. I am a bit overweight. When I picked up Covid I felt like death warmed up, but I was never in any danger of having to go to hospital. Makes you wonder.

 

[yorksrob]

An interesting paper came from the CDC about COVID-19 severe illness underying conditions.

Underlying Medical Conditions and Severe Illness Among 540,667 Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19, March 2020–March 2021

Preventing Chronic Disease (PCD) is a peer-reviewed electronic journal established by the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. PCD provides an open exchange of information and knowledge among researchers, practitioners, policy makers, and others who strive to...

www.cdc.gov

So basically obesity and anxiety/fear-related disorders were the strongest risk factors in severe COVID-19 illness.

Yet the governments of the West banned us from doing exercise for periods, kept only fast food joints open, and put the fear of God into us all.

Lockdowns must never happen again, full stop.

That is interesting but strange. I wonder by what mechanism anxiety related illnesses become a higher risk factor for covid. The body works in mysterious ways !

 

[Bantamzen]

That is interesting but strange. I wonder by what mechanism anxiety related illnesses become a higher risk factor for covid. The body works in mysterious ways !

Anxiety can have serious physical effects such as increased heart rate, high blood pressure and fatigue. And indirectly someone suffering with anxiety might also not be having the best of diets, smoking or drinking more. Any combination of these could be causing problems for their immune systems, which in turn means more potential for covid having a serious effect.

 

[yorksrob]

Anxiety can have serious physical effects such as increased heart rate, high blood pressure and fatigue. And indirectly someone suffering with anxiety might also not be having the best of diets, smoking or drinking more. Any combination of these could be causing problems for their immune systems, which in turn means more potential for covid having a serious effect.

Goodness. I can imagine ramping up the fear factor can't have done those people much good then.

 

[Bantamzen]

Goodness. I can imagine ramping up the fear factor can't have done those people much good then.

Certainly not. I used to suffer badly from it and know people that still do. The one thing that is very common amongst depressed people is that their health suffers, so seeing some data pointing to a correlation with severe reactions to covid is not surprising. There are going to be a lot of politicians and their advisors that are going to have a lot to answer for.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

This was on the BBC News website earlier, albeit in the constantly updated live feed so I can't provide a link to it - there doesn't seem to be a separate report for it ( despite there being one for the pointless call to ban unvaccinated people from travelling in or to Wales... ).

Saying "Stay outside for bank holiday" sort of proves they know lockdowns are useless and don't work doesn't it?



For those who can't do pictures, it's a screen grab of a statement from the Welsh Health Minister that people should stay outside if possible over the bank holiday weekend.

 

[Ianno87]

This was on the BBC News website earlier, albeit in the constantly updated live feed so I can't provide a link to it - there doesn't seem to be a separate report for it ( despite there being one for the pointless call to ban unvaccinated people from travelling in or to Wales... ).

Saying "Stay outside for bank holiday" sort of proves they know lockdowns are useless and don't work doesn't it?

View attachment 101826

For those who can't do pictures, it's a screen grab of a statement from the Welsh Health Minister that people should stay outside if possible over the bank holiday weekend.

I honestly think it's just being made up as we go along at times...

 

[greyman42]

An interesting paper came from the CDC about COVID-19 severe illness underying conditions.

Underlying Medical Conditions and Severe Illness Among 540,667 Adults Hospitalized With COVID-19, March 2020–March 2021

Preventing Chronic Disease (PCD) is a peer-reviewed electronic journal established by the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. PCD provides an open exchange of information and knowledge among researchers, practitioners, policy makers, and others who strive to...

www.cdc.gov

So basically obesity and anxiety/fear-related disorders were the strongest risk factors in severe COVID-19 illness.

Yet the governments of the West banned us from doing exercise for periods, kept only fast food joints open, and put the fear of God into us all.

Lockdowns must never happen again, full stop.

From personal observations, obesity was putting people more at risk of hospitalisation but i think that was largely accepted. While some people such as myself had no fear of Covid, the effects of having lockdowns could also cause the same levels of anxiety.

I don't think we were banned from doing exercise, i actually exercised more during lockdowns to the point where i was probably overdoing it. I am sure that all shops selling food were allowed to stay open, not just fast food joints.

I agree, lockdowns must never happen again for a virus that has over a 99% survival rate and a average age of death of 83.

 

[102 fan]

Having another lockdown will only result in the public asking themselves if the vaccine works, and more will wonder what's the point of vaccination?

It's all to do with perception. A world that has further lockdowns is not one I want to live in.

I have noticed on other forums and Facebook that last year the majority were on favour of restrictions, now its the reverse, most against. 18 months of uncertainty, I know a couple who had to cancel their wedding 3 times, holiday uncertainty, the fear of your destination sliding into a red list, and the cost of testing, last Christmas being subject to restrictions and so on has only p****d the majority off by this stage.

 

[Class 170101]

The question is how high will cases go once the schools go back in September. The vaccines mean we have far less hospitalizations per case than we did last year, but we will be going into September with a far larger number of cases per capita than we did last year.

Not sure the schools going back will make a difference to hospitalisations as the 3 to 18 age group weren't at high risk of dying never mind a hospital visit in the first place.

The bigger problem of schools going back is mixing between children (and households) equals more chance of spreading the infection but more critically everytime the virus moves between people it has to copy itself and eventually one of these copies could evade the vaccines we have.

 

[greyman42]

I have noticed on other forums and Facebook that last year the majority were on favour of restrictions, now its the reverse, most against.

Perhaps the novelty of being able to sit around the house all day in their pyjamas, stuffing themselves with Jaffa Cakes has worn off.

 

[Socanxdis]

There's an article that came out in the telegraph 2 days ago behind a paywall into why we're sleepwalking into another lockdown apparently.

 

[yorksrob]

There's an article that came out in the telegraph 2 days ago behind a paywall into why we're sleepwalking into another lockdown apparently.

Hopefully they're warning of the dangers rather than writing on reliable inside information.

Either way it's up to us, the public not to comply.