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My ideas for HS2 (if Eastern Leg isn’t built)

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HST43257

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So there’s a pretty decent chance that HS2’s eastern leg towards Yorkshire and the North East won’t happen. Assuming that’s the case, I’d expect more money and/or services to be put into the rest of the service. So here are my suggested calling patterns:



WEST MIDLANDS
  • 2tph London to Birmingham calling at Birmingham Curzon Street only
  • 1tph London to Birmingham calling at Birmingham Interchange and Birmingham Curzon Street
  • 1tph London to Wolverhampton calling at Coventry, Birmingham International, Birmingham New Street, Smethwick Galton Bridge, Sandwell & Dudley, Coseley and Wolverhampton
  • 2tph London to Shrewsbury calling at Birmingham Interchange, Sutton Coldfield, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Telford Central, Wellington (Shropshire) and Shrewsbury
First of all, I’d have a chord off the HS2 mainline around Kenilworth to give Coventry a third Intercity (not LNWR) service to London, given the fact that HS2 would mean only 2tph Avanti Birmingham to London via the WCML. Then the Shrewsbury service: I see an opportunity to reduce car miles by serving areas where commuting to London is common. Places like Sutton Coldfield and Walsall fit this criteria perfectly in my opinion and they are both on the Sutton Park Line. With only 2tph, frequent metro services into Birmingham would also be possible on the route. It’s worth mentioning that the Sutton Park Line has a very easy way to get to HS2, very near where it joins the Cross Country route close to Water Orton. From Wolverhampton (where the old under-station alignment would be used, it seemed to make sense to extend at least 1 train an hour through to Telford and Shrewsbury.



NORTH WEST
  • 2tph London to Manchester calling at Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly (Low Level)
  • 2tph Birmingham to Manchester calling at Manchester Airport and Manchester Piccadilly (Low Level)
  • 1tph London to Manchester calling at Birmingham Interchange, Stoke-on-Trent, Macclesfield, Stockport and Manchester Piccadilly (High Level)
  • 1tph London to Manchester calling at Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport and Manchester Piccadilly (High Level)
  • 1tph London to Bradford calling at Stoke-on-Trent, Stockport, Stalybridge, Huddersfield, Brighouse, Halifax and Bradford Interchange
  • 1tph London to Liverpool calling at Stafford, Crewe, Widnes for Runcorn and Liverpool High Speed
  • 1tph London to Liverpool High Speed calling at Birmingham Interchange, Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Widnes for Runcorn and Liverpool High Speed
So here we have the full high speed services from London and Birmingham via the Airport to Piccadilly Low Level, shared with NPR. There’s also the existing non stop London to Stoke but then going off to the Huddersfield and Bradford area so they can get a decent service - not sure how journey time would compare to the ECML. There would be a direct change for the Wilmslow service to HS2 instead of the WCML. For the Liverpool services, they’d use a chord just south of Warrington to get onto the route under the current WBQ station, which would be for these HS2 services and all Liverpool NPR trains. They’d be fully segregated from the rest of the services before they go into a tunnel to an underground station somewhere around Liverpool Lime Street and Central.



ANGLO SCOT
  • 1tph London to Glasgow calling at Birmingham Interchange, Preston, Carlisle and Glasgow Central (Low Level)
  • 1tph London to Glasgow calling at Preston, Lancaster, Carlisle and Glasgow Central (Low Level)
  • 1tph Birmingham to Glasgow calling at Crewe, Preston, Lancaster, Carlisle and Glasgow Central (Low Level)
  • 1tph London to Aberdeen calling at Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme Lake District, Carlisle, Lockerbie (1tp2h), Carstairs (1tp2h), Motherwell, Stirling, Perth, Dundee, Arbroath, Montrose and Aberdeen.
  • 1tph London to Glasgow calling at Birmingham Interchange, Stafford, Crewe, Warrington Bank Quay, Preston, Lancaster, Penrith North Lakes, Carlisle, Motherwell and Glasgow Central (High Level)
  • 1tph Birmingham to Glasgow calling at Warrington Bank Quay, Wigan North Western, Preston, Oxenholme Lake District, Penrith North Lakes, Carlisle and Glasgow Central (Low Level)
So I think it could be the case that there could just be 1 (Non-NPR) Anglo Scottish service via the ECML, so good cash could go into a fast route through the lakes and north west. I would have a huge high speed only route from Gretna Green to Edinburgh (and beyond towards NCL?) via the centre of Glasgow. It would be in a tunnel where it cant be above ground. It’s far fetched but it may be needed.


EAST MIDLANDS
  • 1tph London to Sheffield calling at Birmingham Interchange, Derby, Chesterfield and Sheffield
  • 1tph London to Sheffield calling at Birmingham Interchange, Burton-on-Trent, Derby and Sheffield
Without the main Eastern Leg I think that Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield lose a lot without HS2. Nottingham and Sheffield could have ECML services to London but 2 services on a heavily upgraded Cross Country route would be good. Burton is a location that would probably be good for one of these services as well. You can make a connection to HS2 from the line between Burton and Lichfield.


People’s thoughts on these ideas would be appreciated - thanks!
 
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The Planner

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Any changes to Phase 1 infrastructure are not going to happen, that horse bolted years ago. The original plan for having a Liverpool stop at Stafford etc got thrown in the bin once they realised the second fast Liverpool caught it up. Any connection from HS2 to the Derby line would likely happen nearer Tamworth if they decide to can the Eastern side. Also, if my maths is correct, you are running 19tph from London to Birmingham Interchange, not gonna happen.
 

BayPaul

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If there is a cut to the Eastern leg, then the only reason would be to save money. I can't imagine any of that money would be spent elsewhere, let alone on the additional connections you would need for that lot!

I could imagine increasing Birmingham and Manchester to 4tph each, with some of the Manchesters running through NPR to Leeds if that is built. also, not dividing anything other than the Glasgow / Edinburgh services, and just running them as 200m trains from London
 

D365

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If eastern leg is cut then without fail electrification of MML with rolling program of electrification from Sheffield to Doncaster, Leeds and York.

Absolutely. I can't imagine the political ramifications of cancelling HS2-2b and leaving the MML untouched.
 

37424

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Well you say there will only be only one anglo-scottish service via the ECML but you don't seem to show any HS2 services to Edinburgh, if the Eastern leg gets cut I doubt the new line from Gretna to Edinburgh would have a better business case than the Eastern leg.

Also if the Eastern leg were to be cut I doubt it would be really worth running any London services from Sheffield that way.

A compromise might be to build the spur as far as the Totton and use an upgraded midland line for services to Sheffield scrapping the section between Totton and Leeds. Leeds and Newcastle would continue to use the ECML for services to London, and NPR via Manchester for Birmingham Services but of course that's beyond wild speculation at this stage and fairly pointless really.
 

HST43257

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Well you say there will only be only one anglo-scottish service via the ECML but you don't seem to show any HS2 services to Edinburgh
Mistake on my part - Glasgow (Low Level) services would continue through to Edinburgh.

If eastern leg is cut then without fail electrification of MML with rolling program of electrification from Sheffield to Doncaster, Leeds and York.
Agreed. 6 tracks on parts of the St Pancras to Bedford part? Also I’d upgrade the East Coast Main Line with 4 tracks at Welwyn if possible, higher speeds beyond Peterborough and an avoiding line for Doncaster. North of York I would quite like to see corners cut around Aycliffe and Durham as well.
 
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London Trains

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On another thread, I wrote my ideas for this exact topic and came up with a service plan and timings of this out of Euston:

00 Glasgow (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)
03 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)
06 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
09 Blackpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Kirkham, Poulton)
12 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
15 Liverpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
18 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)
21 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
24 Crewe (OOC, Bham Intl, extend to Chester and then onto North Wales if electrification happens)
27 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
30 Edinburgh (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)
33 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)
36 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
39 Blackpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Kirkham, Poulton)
42 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
45 Liverpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
48 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)
51 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
54 Crewe (OOC, Bham Intl, extend to Chester and then onto North Wales if electrification happens)
57 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY

2tph Birmingham to Manchester (Crewe, Stockport)
2tph Birmingham to Liverpool (Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
1tph Birmingham to Glasgow (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)
1tph Birmingham to Edinburgh (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)
 

HST43257

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On another thread, I wrote my ideas for this exact topic and came up with a service plan and timings of this out of Euston:

00 Glasgow (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)
03 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)
06 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
09 Blackpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Kirkham, Poulton)
12 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
15 Liverpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
18 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)
21 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
24 Crewe (OOC, Bham Intl, extend to Chester and then onto North Wales if electrification happens)
27 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
30 Edinburgh (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)
33 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)
36 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
39 Blackpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Kirkham, Poulton)
42 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
45 Liverpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
48 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)
51 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
54 Crewe (OOC, Bham Intl, extend to Chester and then onto North Wales if electrification happens)
57 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY

2tph Birmingham to Manchester (Crewe, Stockport)
2tph Birmingham to Liverpool (Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
1tph Birmingham to Glasgow (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)
1tph Birmingham to Edinburgh (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)
Would you really stop everything at Oxenholme and Penrith?
 

jfisher21

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Maybe split a 400m train at Preston, front portion first stop Glasgow or Edinburgh, rear portion Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle
 

daodao

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So there’s a pretty decent chance that HS2’s eastern leg towards Yorkshire and the North East won’t happen. Assuming that’s the case, I’d expect more money and/or services to be put into the rest of the service. So here are my suggested calling patterns:
..............
EAST MIDLANDS
  • 1tph London to Sheffield calling at Birmingham Interchange, Derby, Chesterfield and Sheffield
  • 1tph London to Sheffield calling at Birmingham Interchange, Burton-on-Trent, Derby and Sheffield
This is a sensible suggestion, which would improve and accelerate services to Sheffield and Derby. The remaining express services from St Pancras via the MML should run non-stop to Leicester, and then to Nottingham.
 

Bletchleyite

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This is a sensible suggestion, which would improve and accelerate services to Sheffield and Derby. The remaining express services from St Pancras via the MML should run non-stop to Leicester, and then to Nottingham.

And add a St Pancras-Leicester semifast EMU in one of the spare paths, to fix the connectivity issue from Thameslink/Bedford to points north which exists at the moment.
 

BayPaul

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And add a St Pancras-Leicester semifast EMU in one of the spare paths, to fix the connectivity issue from Thameslink/Bedford to points north which exists at the moment.
I suspect that one will be fixed when (if) electrification ever reaches Leicester, by diverting one of the Corbys (or possibly splitting one or both of them - 8 carriages to Leicester and 4 to Corby), independently of HS2
 

daodao

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And add a St Pancras-Leicester semifast EMU in one of the spare paths, to fix the connectivity issue from Thameslink/Bedford to points north which exists at the moment.
I agree. IMO, there should be 2 semi-fast trains per hour from St Pancras to Derby, calling at either Luton or Luton Airport, then Bedford and all stations to Leicester, Loughborough, East Midlands Parkway and Long Eaton. They should arrive at Leicester just before and leave just after the 2 tph Nottingham expresses, to permit easy cross-platform interchanges.
 

Bald Rick

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If eastern leg is cut then without fail electrification of MML with rolling program of electrification from Sheffield to Doncaster, Leeds and York.

That’s almost certainly going to happen anyway. How the announcement is timed is anyone’s guess.
 

Purple Orange

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If the eastern branch is cut, how can Leeds achieve reduced journey times to London? Electrifying the MML wont do that and I highly doubt a completely new line between Leeds & Manchester will be built too.
 

37424

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If the eastern branch is cut, how can Leeds achieve reduced journey times to London? Electrifying the MML wont do that and I highly doubt a completely new line between Leeds & Manchester will be built too.
Leeds doesn't really need a reduced Journey time to London its pretty good as it is and KX may be a better terminus than either Old Oak Common or Euston for some end destinations, but course lets remember HS2 is about releasing capacity and the Eastern Leg releasing capacity on both the Midland and East Coast. Without the Eastern leg you could still potentially take some of Anglo Scottish traffic off the East Coast but not really Leeds/York/Newcastle, but you could still get an improved Journey time to the Midlands via NPR if that was built.
 

Purple Orange

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Leeds doesn't really need a reduced Journey time to London its pretty good as it is and KX may be a better terminus than either Old Oak Common or Euston for some end destinations, but course lets remember HS2 is about releasing capacity and the Eastern Leg releasing capacity on both the Midland and East Coast. Without the Eastern leg you could still potentially take some of Anglo Scottish traffic off the East Coast but not really Leeds/York/Newcastle, but you could still get an improved Journey time to the Midlands via NPR if that was built.

So Leeds is ok with 2 hour 20 mins to KX, 2 hours to Birmingham and no capacity released on the route from Doncaster & Wakefield when both Liverpool & Manchester will have journey times of 1 hour to Euston and 40 mins to Brum, with capacity released on the WCML?

The NPR route won’t be a new dedicated line via Bradford either - no chance of that happening. The first phase of NPR is already happening in the form of the TRU; I think the best we can expect going forward is the scale of the Huddersfield-Dewsbury project to be replicated between Manchester & Huddersfield. Once done, the government will spin it in to being a new upgraded line fit for the 21st century.
 

37424

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So Leeds is ok with 2 hour 20 mins to KX, 2 hours to Birmingham and no capacity released on the route from Doncaster & Wakefield when both Liverpool & Manchester will have journey times of 1 hour to Euston and 40 mins to Brum, with capacity released on the WCML?

The NPR route won’t be a new dedicated line via Bradford either - no chance of that happening. The first phase of NPR is already happening in the form of the TRU; I think the best we can expect going forward is the scale of the Huddersfield-Dewsbury project to be replicated between Manchester & Huddersfield. Once done, the government will spin it in to being a new upgraded line fit for the 21st century.
Well actually the fastest Leeds to London time is 2 hours but yes the majority take longer than that I think around 2h 10 min for the full IET timetable which has got somewhat lost at present due to covid. Yes it wouldn't be as good as the 1h 20 min HS2 projected journey time but its still a very good service.

As for NPR not being a dedicated route you don't know that at this stage unless you have some sort of inside information, my view they could only justify dropping the Eastern Leg on the grounds of building a proper NPR link, and upgrading and fully electrifying the Midland Mainline.
 

Purple Orange

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Well actually the fastest Leeds to London time is 2 hours but yes the majority take longer than that I think around 2h 10 min for the full IET timetable which has got somewhat lost at present due to covid. Yes it wouldn't be as good as the 1h 20 min HS2 projected journey time but its still a very good service.

As for NPR not being a dedicated route you don't know that at this stage unless you have some sort of inside information, my view they could only justify dropping the Eastern Leg on the grounds of building a proper NPR link, and upgrading and fully electrifying the Midland Mainline.

You are correct that I do not know that certain there will be no new dedicated NPR line. It is only my interpretation of what I have seen the actions (or lack of) from the DfT has been and therefore how I think that attitude will not change. If I was to place a bet, it would be that NPR is downgraded to Trans Pennine Route upgrade along the whole of the Manchester-York line.
 

37424

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You are correct that I do not know that certain there will be no new dedicated NPR line. It is only my interpretation of what I have seen the actions (or lack of) from the DfT has been and therefore how I think that attitude will not change. If I was to place a bet, it would be that NPR is downgraded to Trans Pennine Route upgrade along the whole of the Manchester-York line.
You may be right in that assessment of NPR but in that case its a much more difficult sell to drop the eastern leg of HS2 as well, I think you have to do one or the other, and if you did have a full NPR route via Bradford you still look at running a service to London which could offer a significant journey time improvement to Bradford given the current 20min trundle to Leeds and reversal and even a slight improvement to the journey time to Leeds.
 
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Purple Orange

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You may be right in that assessment of NPR but in that case its a much more difficult sell to drop the eastern leg of HS2 as well, I think you have to do one or the other, and if you did have a full NPR route via Bradford you still look at running a service to London which could offer a significant journey time improvement to Bradford given the current 20min trundle to Leeds and reversal and even a slight improvement to the journey time to Leeds.

It is probably more likely that the eastern branch will be built in phases, like the western branch. Building the eastern branch to a point where Leeds-London services can be removed from the ECML might be the first stage. I’d have thought that would be far cheaper than a new-build NPR line across the Pennines.
 

37424

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It is probably more likely that the eastern branch will be built in phases, like the western branch. Building the eastern branch to a point where Leeds-London services can be removed from the ECML might be the first stage. I’d have thought that would be far cheaper than a new-build NPR line across the Pennines.

Yes but to do that your pretty much going to have to build all of it, you could look at doing it as far as the Chesterfield spur first which would allow Sheffield and Midland services to go to HS2 and do the the section from the Spur to Leeds and Church Fenton at a later date.
 
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Ianno87

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Yes but to do that your pretty much going to have to build all of it, you could look at doing it as far as the Chesterfield spur first which would allow Sheffield and Midland services to go to HS2 and do the the section from the Spur to Leeds and Church Fenton at a later date.

Problem is "just" doing it for the Sheffield services is alot of infrastructure all the way from Birmingham to Chesterfield for basically only 2tph. I'd suggest you'd need at least to do Sheffield combined with some link onto the Wakefield Westgate route, saving Leeds station and approaches for a later phase.
 

miami

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On another thread, I wrote my ideas for this exact topic and came up with a service plan and timings of this out of Euston:

00 Glasgow (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)
03 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)
06 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
09 Blackpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Kirkham, Poulton)
12 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
15 Liverpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
18 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)
21 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
24 Crewe (OOC, Bham Intl, extend to Chester and then onto North Wales if electrification happens)
27 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
30 Edinburgh (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)
33 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)
36 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
39 Blackpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Kirkham, Poulton)
42 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY
45 Liverpool (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
48 Manchester (OOC, Bham Intl, Stafford, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)
51 Birmingham (OOC, Bham Intl)
54 Crewe (OOC, Bham Intl, extend to Chester and then onto North Wales if electrification happens)
57 SPARE PATH FOR RECOVERY

2tph Birmingham to Manchester (Crewe, Stockport)
2tph Birmingham to Liverpool (Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)
1tph Birmingham to Glasgow (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)
1tph Birmingham to Edinburgh (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)

So that assumes no phase 2B in the west either.

Wow, 8 trains an hour London to Crewe, and another 6 from Birmingham to Crewe. Can't complain about that.

But where are the paths coming for the extra London-Manchester service through Stockport, and extra London-Liverpool? Let alone another 2 services from Birmingham to each destination?
 

37424

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Problem is "just" doing it for the Sheffield services is alot of infrastructure all the way from Birmingham to Chesterfield for basically only 2tph. I'd suggest you'd need at least to do Sheffield combined with some link onto the Wakefield Westgate route, saving Leeds station and approaches for a later phase.
You would only do it on the basis of the full route being built at a later date, if it ran out of money and the Chesterfield spur was as far as it got then it wouldn't be a great option, as using the existing route between Sheffield and Leeds isn't particularly fast so it wouldn't offer a journey time improvement from Leeds to London, possibly there would be some journey time improvement to Birmingham but its not a great end game solution, really If you build the Eastern leg then you have to build it all or not at all. As for some partial new route between Sheffield and Leeds Im not sure how well that work or how much it would save both in terms of cost, journey time and capacity.
 

Ianno87

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You would only do it on the basis of the full route being built at a later date, if it ran out of money and the Chesterfield spur was as far as it got then it wouldn't be a great option, as using the existing route between Sheffield and Leeds isn't particularly fast so it wouldn't offer a journey time improvement from Leeds to London, possibly there would be some journey time improvement to Birmingham but its not a great end game solution, really If you build the Eastern leg then you have to build it all or not at all. As for some partial new route between Sheffield and Leeds Im not sure how well that work or how much it would save.

You wouldn't credibly do "just to Sheffield" as a standalone hybrid Bill - the supporting economic case would be too poor.

You would do to Leeds (including Sheffield) as a hybrid Bill, but then stage the actual build.
 

37424

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I would also make the comment that having worked in Sheffield for many years and lived their for a short period, I would say that the original route with a station at Meadowhall was probably the better option for Rotherham and Sheffield.
 

Purple Orange

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So that assumes no phase 2B in the west either.

Wow, 8 trains an hour London to Crewe, and another 6 from Birmingham to Crewe. Can't complain about that.

But where are the paths coming for the extra London-Manchester service through Stockport, and extra London-Liverpool? Let alone another 2 services from Birmingham to each destination?

Funnily enough, there is a plan for enabling those extra services to Manchester!
 
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