New 4-tier system for England

[DustyBin]

They haven't handled things well no, but this situation is unprecedented so everything is experimentation. They're damned if they do or they don't. Following the Sweden model may have led to an NHS catastrophe. I don't think it helps, or is accurate, to suggest that these leaders have some disturbed agenda to exert authoritarianism and deny people freedoms, as some have suggested at times. I believe the aim has always been to protect the health service. That is why progress in vaccination will lead to easing/lifting in restrictions.

But that’s the point, it’s not as unprecedented as they’re making out, and it isn’t the ‘Sweden model’ it’s the widely accepted standard epidemiological response that we ourselves only abandoned at the eleventh hour, which now appears to have been a mistake. I’m not going to try and convince you, you’re fully entitled to your views, they’re as valid as mine are, but I don’t believe this is all about protecting the NHS. There’s at least some degree of covering their tracks or ideological thinking behind all of this, I’m not sure which, but I can only feasibly attribute so much to incompetence or coincidence, and we’re past that point now.

They have to plan for a worst case scenario as an insurance, but that very much is a worst case scenario and so far all the signs are that won't happen, because vaccination is currently going ok and appears very effective.

That isn’t the worst case scenario though, believe me!

 

[DB]

They have to plan for a worst case scenario as an insurance, but that very much is a worst case scenario and so far all the signs are that won't happen, because vaccination is currently going ok and appears very effective.

They are supposed to take all factors into account, which they no longer do as a result of becoming fixated on this one issue. In particular, the economic, social and other health impacts are largely ignored.

There is also a significant amount of 'being seen to be doing something', with restrictions such as masks which have a chilling effect on society (and are no doubt intended to convey threat) despite no evidence of them actually working.

Likewise all these lockdown tiers, the shafting of the hospitality industry despite no evidence that it's a major source of spread, and shutting "non-essential" shops, despite likewise no evidence that they are a major cause of spread, and the knock-on effect that more people go to the shops which remain open, meaning that even on its own (flawed) terms this policy does the opposite of what is intended.

Meanwhile, over the summer they did precisely nothing to increase NHS capacity or put in protections for care homes.

They never admit to getting anything wrong, and if something doesn't work that's always because we need more of it, not because it actually doesn't work.

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Going back on topic, for West Sussex (where I live) it makes no sense whatsoever to put us on Tier 4. What is even the point? Our cases are not even that high!

 

[jtuk]

They haven't handled things well no, but this situation is unprecedented so everything is experimentation. They're damned if they do or they don't. Following the Sweden model may have led to an NHS catastrophe.

Well, that was the fear in March. We saw that the fear was unfounded in May when we worked out that peak virus was prior to lockdown. No NHS overload ensued, Nightingales were unused. No reason to ever think a future uptick would be worse than the first time it hit. Hence the public health crisis was over and remains over. That was the only rationale for any restrictions. Why should there be any restrictions, especially now when we have huge swathes of immunity from people that have had it already, and now that we have a vaccine that'll protect the tiny percentage of the population that are actually vulnerable to it?

 

[SouthEastBuses]

Well, that was the fear in March. We saw that the fear was unfounded in May when we worked out that peak virus was prior to lockdown. No NHS overload ensued, Nightingales were unused. No reason to ever think a future uptick would be worse than the first time it hit. Hence the public health crisis was over and remains over. That was the only rationale for any restrictions. Why should there be any restrictions, especially now when we have huge swathes of immunity from people that have had it already, and now that we have a vaccine that'll protect the tiny percentage of the population that are actually vulnerable to it?

You can say that again. Only social distancing and maybe masks make sense, other than that, scrap all the stupid tiers etc.

 

[Philip]

Labour also support all the restrictions imposed, so not just the government. I don't support the Tories but I don't think they'd impose restrictions unless they're concerned and genuinely feel there is a need.

 

[Richard Scott]

Labour also support all the restrictions imposed, so not just the government. I don't support the Tories but I don't think they'd impose restrictions unless they're concerned and genuinely feel there is a need.

The problem is they've backed themselves into a corner and need to keep up this charade otherwise they'll have to admit to making mistakes. To be honest I'd have much more respect for them if they did that.

 

[kristiang85]

Hopefully the vaccine numbers will be impressive, and those who are pro lockdown now will be thinking that one final push until the vulnerable are vaccinated is worth it.

If by end of Jan the vulnerable groups are all vaccinated yet these draconian rules persist, maybe then - finally - there will be a pushback from more significant numbers of society. Certainly those who know their elderly parents are vaccinated but still can't see them will be getting angry.

One hopes, anyway.

 

[Ianno87]

Hopefully the vaccine numbers will be impressive, and those who are pro lockdown now will be thinking that one final push until the vulnerable are vaccinated is worth it.

If by end of Jan the vulnerable groups are all vaccinated yet these draconian rules persist, maybe then - finally - there will be a pushback from more significant numbers of society. Certainly those who know their elderly parents are vaccinated but still can't see them will be getting angry.

One hopes, anyway.

I think that is the mindset alot of people are now in; heads down for a bit longer until there's a critical mass of vaccinations, combined with a stable case rate.

 

[DB]

You can say that again. Only social distancing and maybe masks make sense, other than that, scrap all the stupid tiers etc.

Masks are one of the most pointless of all the restrictions (no evidence that they have any effect) - and they are the one the one which ensures that people don't bother with distancing.

The problem is they've backed themselves into a corner and need to keep up this charade otherwise they'll have to admit to making mistakes. To be honest I'd have much more respect for them if they did that.

Quite. And politicians in this country never admit to getting anything wrong, especially ones as arrogant as Johnson.

 

[Ianno87]

Masks are one of the most pointless of all the restrictions (no evidence that they have any effect) - and they are the one the one which ensures that people don't bother with distancing.

I'm pretty pro-mask (as it's a pretty easy, if unpopular, thing to implement), but am getting increasingly irritated by the people who don't realise it doesn't replace distancing where this is reasonably possible. Or, like the lady on my bus recently, insisted on taking it on and off repeatedly to chat to her friend across the aisle....

 

[Richard Scott]

I'm pretty pro-mask (as it's a pretty easy, if unpopular, thing to implement), but am getting increasingly irritated by the people who don't realise it doesn't replace distancing where this is reasonably possible. Or, like the lady on my bus recently, insisted on taking it on and off repeatedly to chat to her friend across the aisle....

It may be easy for some. It's also totally horrid to not to be able to see people smile or read facial expressions. These are important and a difficult situation can be defused with a smile but can't do this with a mask, everyone just looks like Darth Vader.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Lockdown was one thing last March when time needed to be bought to get the house in order, but it’s completely unacceptable a year down the line.


Why do you think the furlough scheme has been extended to April? There’s a clue there.

Of course, just because the furlough scheme exists in April doesn't mean it'll be used to the same extent.

It's pretty likely that some businesses like nightclubs and large events won't be operating until at least then even in a fairly optimistic scenario. There will also be capacity reductions in things like hospitality so some workers may still need furlough. What that doesn't mean is we'll be in a full lockdown - I'd guess the April situation will be similar to the autumn with a mixture of Tier 1 and Tier 2.

 

[Ianno87]

It may be easy for some. It's also totally horrid to not to be able to see people smile or read facial expressions. These are important and a difficult situation can be defused with a smile but can't do this with a mask, everyone just looks like Darth Vader.

I've found people making exaggerated eyeball/upper face expressions to try and convey their happiness quite entertaining!

(FWIW, I can't wait to be able to see all of peoples' faces again; I'm not pretending it's not a compromise in the short term)

 

[bramling]

Labour also support all the restrictions imposed, so not just the government. I don't support the Tories but I don't think they'd impose restrictions unless they're concerned and genuinely feel there is a need.

Whilst that argument is entirely logical, I’m not persuaded. Something had to happen in March, though one could argue that even this was only the case because up until that point Boris had done pretty much nothing besides self-isolation measures which it seems quite clear weren’t robustly followed.

Having then been pressured into the lockdown, there was no clear exit strategy. Headlines like “worst death toll in Europe” then overtook the narrative, and since then it’s became a case of damage limitation to their own reputations. We have a health secretary who is young and enthusiastic, but sadly his ability simply doesn’t match his enthusiasm. Meanwhile a PM who “doesn’t so detail”, hence the only policy they are collectively capable of implementing is a “follow the scientists” one. This was never going to work, as the scientists themselves have differing takes on all this.

I've found people making exaggerated eyeball/upper face expressions to try and convey their happiness quite entertaining!

(FWIW, I can't wait to be able to see all of peoples' faces again; I'm not pretending it's not a compromise in the short term)

It probably partially explains why people have become very aggressive and confrontational, as facial expressions are a good tool for conflict management.

 

[NorthOxonian]

It may be easy for some. It's also totally horrid to not to be able to see people smile or read facial expressions. These are important and a difficult situation can be defused with a smile but can't do this with a mask, everyone just looks like Darth Vader.

Very true. I don't find wearing one myself that difficult (thankfully), but seeing them everywhere just makes me feel miserable and even more isolated.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Labour also support all the restrictions imposed, so not just the government. I don't support the Tories but I don't think they'd impose restrictions unless they're concerned and genuinely feel there is a need.

They are rather enjoying this power over every aspect of our lives a little too much for my liking

They haven't handled things well no, but this situation is unprecedented so everything is experimentation. They're damned if they do or they don't. Following the Sweden model may have led to an NHS catastrophe. I don't think it helps, or is accurate, to suggest that these leaders have some disturbed agenda to exert authoritarianism and deny people freedoms, as some have suggested at times. I believe the aim has always been to protect the health service. That is why progress in vaccination will lead to easing/lifting in restrictions.

I think this assertion of being in tier 4 until March/April is pessimistic nonsense btw. The government know the damage it will cause, as soon as vaccination starts leading to a reduction in hospital admissions, they will be very quick to ease restrictions.

I fear those words are going to look very foolish in May 2021. Furlough has been extended to April, so that ought to be a big clue! Or are you expecting a withdrawal of restrictions and the government to pay people, with your (our) taxes, who have no virus-related reason to not go to work, to sit at home??

 

[Bantamzen]

They are rather enjoying this power over every aspect of our lives a little too much for my liking


I fear those words are going to look very foolish in May 2021. Furlough has been extended to April, so that ought to be a big clue! Or are you expecting a withdrawal of restrictions and the government to pay people who are not in danger to work from home with your (our) taxes?

Just because the scheme is extended until April, doesn't mean that businesses have to take it. If they are back up and running before April, the scheme could be run down earlier.

 

[Cdd89]

As said upthread, I think this government was a very happy accident in terms of not having crippling restrictions. Within Europe we are somewhere in the middle in terms of Lockdown severity. eg The Netherlands is notably better than us but plenty of places are far worse (France where you need a form to leave the house...). My impression is that this government was bounced into adopting authoritarian measures by the feedback loop of “scientists”, the media and public hysteria: it was only one week earlier that the Sweden approach was official government policy.

The downside is that I don’t foresee that hysteria and pressure letting up just because the NHS is not at immediate threat of being overwhelmed. The talking points of the highly vocal will shift to “it was never about protecting the NHS”. Independent SAGE (which overlaps with SAGE, ridiculously) is already calling for ongoing lockdowns to achieve eradication in order to avoid the risk of new mutations which could harm the vaccine effort:

Independent SAGE
The most important way to reduce emergence of new mutants is to reduce spread of the virus. We reaffirm our view that we should aggressively move towards zero COVID. Whilst we recognize the difficulty for eradication, any level of tolerance of virus transmission within the community risks further evolution and growth of new mutants, which will further compromise our ability to control the virus.

Full source: https://healthcare-newsdesk.co.uk/i...ation-triggers-todays-lockdown-announcements/

You can therefore fully expect the vocal voices to be calling for lockdowns until we achieve vaccination such that case rates are actively decreasing; it’s just a matter of whether the government ends up listening to them, which in turn depends on how much the media plays up that angle.

 

[Philip]

They are rather enjoying this power over every aspect of our lives a little too much for my liking


I fear those words are going to look very foolish in May 2021. Furlough has been extended to April, so that ought to be a big clue! Or are you expecting a withdrawal of restrictions and the government to pay people who are not in danger to work from home with your (our) taxes?

They did just that between May and October, after the first lockdown ended.

People are panicking at the moment, there is a gloomy feel which isn't helped by all this happening in the run up to Christmas. I think a more rational estimation of what will happen is possibly a lockdown of similar length to the November one, starting soon after 30th December.
Then at the end of January there will be the vote about whether or not to continue with the tiers system. If yes, then given vaccination will be well on its way by then and also lockdown/building immunity will have supressed numbers to a point, I would think most areas will be either tier 1 or 2 and any areas in tier 3 will drop down after 2-4 more weeks. And I think any tier 3 areas will be decided by the LTLA, rather than keeping whole city regions in it.
If tiers are scrapped then I would expect a similar to situation to what we had July-October; face coverings and social distancing

 

[52290]

Very true. I don't find wearing one myself that difficult (thankfully), but seeing them everywhere just makes me feel miserable and even more isolated.

Where I live there are more on the footpath than on people's faces.

 

[DB]

The downside is that I don’t foresee that hysteria and pressure letting up just because the NHS is not at immediate threat of being overwhelmed. The talking points of the highly vocal will shift to “it was never about protecting the NHS”.

I suspect you are right, much as I would like it not to be the case! It will then go back to the message of 'eliminating the virus', which Sturgeon has already sort-of used a number of times during the year.

People are panicking at the moment,

I don't disagree with that, but the panicking was entirely engineered by the government!

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Where I live there are more on the footpath than on people's faces.

 

[kristiang85]

Whilst that argument is entirely logical, I’m not persuaded. Something had to happen in March, though one could argue that even this was only the case because up until that point Boris had done pretty much nothing besides self-isolation measures which it seems quite clear weren’t robustly followed.

Having then been pressured into the lockdown, there was no clear exit strategy. Headlines like “worst death toll in Europe” then overtook the narrative, and since then it’s became a case of damage limitation to their own reputations. We have a health secretary who is young and enthusiastic, but sadly his ability simply doesn’t match his enthusiasm. Meanwhile a PM who “doesn’t so detail”, hence the only policy they are collectively capable of implementing is a “follow the scientists” one. This was never going to work, as the scientists themselves have differing takes on all this.

I've always been of the opinion that in the West in general this is a social media-driven pandemic, and effectively governments have been 'bullied' by the mobs calling them granny killers.

Not to mention that lockdowns only came about due to the Chinese using lockdowns themselves initially and the flooding on social media of horrific images of people collapsing in streets, etc, which it now turns out were targeted and most likely fake. Lockdowns were not even talked about at WHO level until then.

Basically, if this had happened 15 years ago I fully expect it would have been a difficult spring and winter on the NHS, but nobody would have noticed too much apart from a lot of angry headlines about the usual annual NHS crisis.

 

[duncanp]

Just because the scheme is extended until April, doesn't mean that businesses have to take it. If they are back up and running before April, the scheme could be run down earlier.

The furlough scheme was originally intended to run until October 2020.

But that did not stop restrictions being lifted earlier than that. (ie Non essential shops on June 15th, pubs and bars on July 4th)

The overlapping of the easing of restrictions and the continuation of the furlough scheme allows businesses some time to adjust, and gradually bring back more staff as business picks up and the economy recovers.

 

[DB]

I've always been of the opinion that in the West in general this is a social media-driven pandemic, and effectively governments have been 'bullied' by the mobs calling them granny killers.

Not to mention that lockdowns only came about due to the Chinese using lockdowns themselves initially and the flooding on social media of horrific images of people collapsing in streets, etc, which it now turns out were targeted and most likely fake. Lockdowns were not even talked about at WHO level until then.

Basically, if this had happened 15 years ago I fully expect it would have been a difficult spring and winter on the NHS, but nobody would have noticed too much apart from a lot of angry headlines about the usual annual NHS crisis.

I'd say actually that it's an internet-driven pandemic - social media and online news have both been pushing up the levels of paranoia, and the internet makes restrictions possible, as working and shopping from home is practical for many now.

Agree that 15 years ago this is unlikely to have happened - it's actually not a lot worst statistically than a couple of bad flu years in the late 1990s, which I didn't even realise had been so bad until looking at the stats recently, so clearly it wasn't much in the public eye at the time.

 

[Cdd89]

Agree that 15 years ago this is unlikely to have happened - it's actually not a lot worst statistically than a couple of bad flu years in the late 1990s, which I didn't even realise had been so bad until looking at the stats recently, so clearly it wasn't much in the public eye at the time.

This is my biggest worry. If this were truly a one-off, I could just about live with it, but now there is precedent for locking down to avoid preventable deaths, where is the line drawn? It is all but guaranteed that the next time there’s a “bad” flu season, there’ll be talk about “restrictions to save lives”.

 

[philosopher]

The downside is that I don’t foresee that hysteria and pressure letting up just because the NHS is not at immediate threat of being overwhelmed. The talking points of the highly vocal will shift to “it was never about protecting the NHS”. Independent SAGE (which overlaps with SAGE, ridiculously) is already calling for ongoing lockdowns to achieve eradication in order to avoid the risk of new mutations which could harm the vaccine effort:



Full source: https://healthcare-newsdesk.co.uk/i...ation-triggers-todays-lockdown-announcements/

You can therefore fully expect the vocal voices to be calling for lockdowns until we achieve vaccination such that case rates are actively decreasing; it’s just a matter of whether the government ends up listening to them, which in turn depends on how much the media plays up that angle.

I would be more supportive of lockdowns if I could be certain they would end once the threat of an overwhelmed NHS had largely gone, which should be sometime in the next two to three months given the vaccination program.

However it is those vocal voices you mention that make me sceptical that the restrictions will end any time in the near future. I just hope the government does stop listening to them, or least listens to them a lot less. However given opinion polls keep suggesting the majority are in favour of these restrictions I fear they will continue to those who will not accept any risk from Covid.

 

[ChrisC]

I think it is a little optimistic to say that all areas of the UK will be no higher than tier 2 by the end of January.

A lot depends on when the Oxford vaccine is approved, and whether the regulators give approval for the Pfizer vaccine to be given as just one dose instead of two. Apparently one dose of the Pfizer vaccine gives 90% protection and two doses give 95% protection. So the regulators are trying to work out whether vaccinating more people with one dose, albeit at a lower level of protection, would have more of a downward effect on the R rate.

If that proves to be the case I think they ought to continue giving 2 doses to the over 70’s and other vulnerable groups and then just one dose for everyone else. I suppose a lot depends on how much protection one dose of the Oxford and the upcoming other vaccines will give.

Being in my early 60’s, I would be quite happy to receive one dose if it gave me 90% protection. It would be good to have my own area back in Tier 2 and other parts of the country to enable overnight stays in hotels. I’ve really missed taking a few day away during November and December and would be very disappointed if it’s Easter or later before I can go away again. I’m so pleased that I got a few days away in Oxfordshire at the end of October before Nottinghamshire was put into Tier 3.

 

[bb21]

They haven't handled things well no, but this situation is unprecedented so everything is experimentation. They're damned if they do or they don't. Following the Sweden model may have led to an NHS catastrophe. I don't think it helps, or is accurate, to suggest that these leaders have some disturbed agenda to exert authoritarianism and deny people freedoms, as some have suggested at times. I believe the aim has always been to protect the health service. That is why progress in vaccination will lead to easing/lifting in restrictions.

I think this assertion of being in tier 4 until March/April is pessimistic nonsense btw. The government know the damage it will cause, as soon as vaccination starts leading to a reduction in hospital admissions, they will be very quick to ease restrictions.

I agree that they are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

What I think is clear so far from the way the pandemic is handled is that, as minimum:

• The cabinet is hopelessly out of its depth, not helped by infighting between the PM's aids and seemingly everyone else.
• There is no real leadership of any kind. The government is inconsistent, indecisive, slow to act (despite their self-congratulatory claims), and changes direction as a knee-jerk reaction to new developments (rather than considered responses), which creates confusion amongst the public.
• One rule for the public and one rule for those in the ivory tower, ie. Dominic Cummings, etc.
• Brexit is clearly occupying their minds, so divided attention and reduced effort and focus on dealing with the pandemic.
• Government money thrown to personal buddies like confetti, completely foreseeable wastage in many cases.

You add all those together and it gives off a very poor image. I think the claims about authoritarianism are unwarranted but that is just my own take. It is more incompetence and self-serving purposes, but public perception is important. What works in other countries doesn't always work here due to cultural differences. If the general public cannot perceive any benefit from restrictive measures or have any belief in the leadership, then they will do their own things.

From what I have seen I think the general public in this country are very obliging on the whole, especially towards the beginning of the pandemic. What has changed for many people over time is their faith in the the government is gradually disappearing, so you hear more and more dissenting voices, but even now I would say the vast majority of the public still follow government rules, to their immense credit.