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New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

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londonteacher

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We are not going to get out of this with civil disobedience.
Exactly! The government would just impose a curfew and remove even more freedoms.

And for all of the talk on here about civil disobedience, there is no sign of it yet!
 

Cowley

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We are not going to get out of this with civil disobedience.
No, and actually it doesn’t reflect very well on the forum if it looks like we’re indirectly encouraging it, so let’s be careful how we’re wording things please. :)
 

bramling

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Exactly! The government would just impose a curfew and remove even more freedoms.

And for all of the talk on here about civil disobedience, there is no sign of it yet!

I’m not sure the latter is entirely true. The current government position is “stay at home”, and I’m not seeing much evidence of that round here. It doesn’t have to be crowds of people marching around with placards, simply a mass lack of respect for what the government wants.

And then there’s, of course, Barnard Castle, which even looking at things charitably was certainly very strongly testing the boundaries.
 

Jamesrob637

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In terms of deaths we are roughly the equivalent of early May 2020 (cases are much higher but testing is widespread unlike just over 9 months ago). This was when measures started to be eased after lockdown one.

But without another wave as people will have been vaccinated by summer.
 

londonteacher

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I’m not sure the latter is entirely true. The current government position is “stay at home”, and I’m not seeing much evidence of that round here. It doesn’t have to be crowds of people marching around with placards, simply a mass lack of respect for what the government wants.

And then there’s, of course, Barnard Castle, which even looking at things charitably was certainly very strongly testing the boundaries.
So the civil disobedience the people are talking about is not staying at home - well that will definitely work! Boris and his government will ignore that!
 

DavidB

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My understanding is a lower number than you might think, as I believe life expectancy at 80 is an average of 10 years. The Shipman argument is never a good look on this.

As for the numbers, I agree that we are talking about the least likely to be affected - but with 25% of recent hospitalisations being under 50, those numbers can still be significant.

On the balance of harm, yes - following the principle of measure twice, cut once. My objection to the approach of CRG, for example, is not to the dates per se, but to the prioritisation of dates over meaningful measures of success.

Sorry, but what is 'the Shipman argument'? Are you implying that anyone who doesn't agree with vicious restrictions is akin to Harold Shipman and 'murdering' people?

And an average life expectncy of 10 years is only if in good health, and those people are less likely to die if they get it anyway - those most at risk will mostly have a much shorter life expectancy.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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In terms of deaths we are roughly the equivalent of early May 2020 (cases are much higher but testing is widespread unlike just over 9 months ago). This was when measures started to be eased after lockdown one.

But without another wave as people will have been vaccinated by summer.
R rate is lowest since May last year with all other metrics going in the right direction and even Dr Doomster Ferguson is saying things are definitely improving. All positive stuff but BoJo doesn't need to worry about the stats too much we need a roadmap to full relaxation and the metrics that support the move between each stage. The dates for each stage will then follow in quick succession and i dearly hope they manage this dynamically not at fixed intervals.
 

island

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You can't have an effective stay at home order if no one stays at home.
It won’t be no one staying at home though, there’s a considerable slice of the population who will follow the law unpalatable as it may be, all the while becoming increasingly annoyed at the “other people” who are “spreading the virus and delaying the day restrictions can be lifted”.
 

DavidB

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It won’t be no one staying at home though, there’s a considerable slice of the population who will follow the law unpalatable as it may be, all the while becoming increasingly annoyed at the “other people” who are “spreading the virus and delaying the day restrictions can be lifted”.

Yes, the usual government divide and rule tactic!

Warmer weather is certain to see more people ignoring restrictions to a much greater level, for sure. It won't take that big a percentage of the population to do this for it to become unworkable to keep the rules in place.
 

brad465

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Yes, the usual government divide and rule tactic!

Warmer weather is certain to see more people ignoring restrictions to a much greater level, for sure. It won't take that big a percentage of the population to do this for it to become unworkable to keep the rules in place.
We'll get a test of that this weekend, with 15-16C forecast in London & the South East and East Anglia, and similar temperatures and dry weather are forecast more widely in the following week. However even in the snow enforcement was a challenge, thinking of the large sledge gathering in the north east that for a while overwhelmed the police force there.

Scientist Mark Woolhouse recently told a Parliamentary committee that no outbreaks have ever been linked to beach gatherings; while it might not be warm enough just yet for that, it shows even with increased outdoor behaviour we shouldn't see too much concern.
 

WelshBluebird

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I think if futher proof was needed that this situation will never end, and we will never go back to normal, this is it.

It isnt proof of anything of the sort and to even suggest that is the case is nuts.

In terms of furlough etc it is likely going to just become much more targeted as time goes on. Even with the quick easing of restrictions there will be some parts of the economy who won't be able to be back working in the summer (things like large scale mass events and the like), so it's only right we support them.

It says nothing at all about the rest of the economy or society.
And it is very very clear that we will eventually drop restrictions because there is no other choice.
As I have asked before without getting an answer - if we aren't going to drop restrictions at some point why bother even with vaccinations?
 

david1212

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Yesterday afternoon I went to the local large town to take my exercise as a couple of circuits of the parks as a change from around this housing estate plus get my weekly shopping and several items on a list I started after Christmas.

The shopping streets were quiet and no queues even outside M&S.

However the parks were as busy as on a bright and hot summers day. Plenty sat on the benches. I suspect a few were with more than one person from a different household / bubble. I didn't see a single plod or PCSO on foot patrol. The only marshals were managing the closure of the main street except for deliveries & disabled. Despite this being from last June two sets of traffic lights within the area are still on .......

By the forecast it will be far less pleasant around here than London & the south-east tomorrow and Sunday


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By contrast at my employment, we're still experiencing supply chain issues due to large companies who aren't being prevented from operating, putting staff on furlough.

We have some supply issues but post Brexit paperwork rather than Covid related. The core issue is the large companies not releasing any orders. We need furlough for several more months else it will be laid off with no income.
 

Bikeman78

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Despite this being from last June two sets of traffic lights within the area are still on .......
That's not especially unusual. When they closed Cardiff Bus station, it was the best part of a year before they took the lights away. Even when they had been physically removed, there was still a time in the traffic light sequence when the buses would have been leaving. Everyone just sat there waiting for nothing.
 

DorkingMain

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I’m not sure the latter is entirely true. The current government position is “stay at home”, and I’m not seeing much evidence of that round here. It doesn’t have to be crowds of people marching around with placards, simply a mass lack of respect for what the government wants.

And then there’s, of course, Barnard Castle, which even looking at things charitably was certainly very strongly testing the boundaries.
Yep.

During the first lockdown it was around May when people started piling down to Bournemouth during the nice weather.

I've long been of the belief that the government is acting entirely reactively. They'll start making it officially allowable for people to do what they've already started to do anyway, and then nobody will fault them for it. I notice there's already murmurs about them allowing people to socialise in outdoor spaces - of course this is probably something large numbers are doing anyway and so it won't cause any ripples.
 

DavidB

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During the first lockdown it was around May when people started piling down to Bournemouth during the nice weather.

Likely to be earlier than that this year if the weather is warm - last April a lot more people believed the rhetoric that this virus was far more dangerous than it actually is. That belief is long gone now.
 

Jamesrob637

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Likely to be earlier than that this year if the weather is warm - last April a lot more people believed the rhetoric that this virus was far more dangerous than it actually is. That belief is long gone now.

Outdoor mixing should be almost unlimited by April this year. Indoors will be another story. Last April it was one person at a time, socially distanced.
 

Silver Cobra

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Another business owner has reflected on the fact that, while Lockdown does help reduce deaths in the short to medium term, it 'will cost lives' ultimately if it continues for too much longer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56137815

Leon boss warns longer lockdown 'will cost lives'

Extending lockdowns even by a matter of weeks will "cost lives", the co-founder of fast-food chain Leon has said.

John Vincent said businesses were "at the heart of a functioning and healthy society" and were losing money that should be going to their employees and the government through taxes.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said people should be "optimistic but patient" about national lockdowns.

He will set out a road map for lifting England's restrictions on Monday.

Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Mr Vincent said it was "quite possible" that Leon could fold "if weeks and months drag on", as it was losing around £200,000 a week. That figure was more like £800,000 when "what we would have been making" is taken into account, he said.

"That's money that isn't going into the economy, it's not going into the wallets of the people who work for Leon, and it's not going to pay the taxes that we need to pay," he said.

"No one's asked us for these numbers, so how does the government know what's going on in the economy?"

He said there had been a "pantomime of scientists against business" during the pandemic - "as if there isn't one giant shared agenda" - and the latter were "positioned as the uncompassionate ones".

But the length of lockdowns "matters hugely", he said, adding that the government had not produced a "holistic cost-benefit analysis".

"Therefore, how can we be making this decision about the impacts on the young today and for their futures? How can we make (decisions about) the impacts of the huge economic destruction which is costing lives? When we lose our economy we lose lives," he said.

"How can we be saying, glibly, 'it doesn't matter if lockdown carries on for a few weeks or months longer than necessary' without the analysis? I wouldn't launch a chicken wrap without analysis."

A spokesman for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said the prime minister would lay out a plan for "gradually reopening our economy and society in a sustainable way" on Monday.

"We understand that this is an extremely tough time for UK restaurants, but we are supporting business with one of the most comprehensive and generous packages of business support in the world worth over £280 billion," he said.

"As we navigate our way out of lockdown, we will continue to work closely with the hospitality sector, as we have done throughout this pandemic."

**EDIT: I didn't realise this had already been posted in another thread (and probably a more relevant place for it): https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ences-of-covid-19-fallout.213984/post-5005328
 
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35B

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Sorry, but what is 'the Shipman argument'? Are you implying that anyone who doesn't agree with vicious restrictions is akin to Harold Shipman and 'murdering' people?

And an average life expectncy of 10 years is only if in good health, and those people are less likely to die if they get it anyway - those most at risk will mostly have a much shorter life expectancy.
The figure I saw (forget source) was average, so already allowed for variations in health.

The Shipman argument is that of those (police in particular) who didn’t actually look at his victims, instead just assuming that as they were elderly their deaths were inevitable and therefore not worth attention.
 

DavidB

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The Shipman argument is that of those (police in particular) who didn’t actually look at his victims, instead just assuming that as they were elderly their deaths were inevitable and therefore not worth attention.

But nobody has said that, have they? The point being made is that there has to be a balance, and in healthcare it is quite normal for decisions to be taken on the basis of QALYs. Apart from in the case of Covid, of course, where the aim of some seems to be to end all deaths at any cost, despite this being completely imporssible and attempts to do so causing massive damage to society.
 

DannyMich2018

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Indoors the government can go whistle.
Exactly!! Life's too short. We've had nearly a year of this now. With much of the elderley and vunerable vaccinated now too. I'm certainly not gonna be at home with just my partner when he comes. I'll invite my best friend round soon either March or April. My mum who is 76 is vaccinated I still see and help her with jobs. Today 445 deaths. Down on last Saturdays 621 or something and just over 10, 000 cases, 2nd lowest this year.
 

Jamesrob637

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Exactly!! Life's too short. We've had nearly a year of this now. With much of the elderley and vunerable vaccinated now too. I'm certainly not gonna be at home with just my partner when he comes. I'll invite my best friend round soon either March or April. My mum who is 76 is vaccinated I still see and help her with jobs. Today 445 deaths. Down on last Saturdays 621 or something and just over 10, 000 cases, 2nd lowest this year.

Lowest cases and deaths for a weekday bearing in mind that Saturday is Friday's stats.
 

Yew

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I'm afraid I'm expecting the spectre of LOCKDOWN to hang over us into 2022 depending on how next winter goes.
We need to say, once and for all, that no matter what happens, we will not resort to these inhumane and ineffective techniques ever again.
 
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