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New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

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Solent&Wessex

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The Daily Mail reckon they've got their hands on an outline of the so called 'blueprint'




Basically, it sounds as if summer will be groundhog day of summer 2020 and it doesn't sound too hopeful for social distancing to vanish before the end of 2021 either!
I'm not entirely sure what opening larger hotels achieves if their dining rooms remain closed and pubs and restaurants are also closed (and one assumes indoor parts of cafes too).

How do they expect anyone to eat any meal at any point during the day if anywhere to eat is closed?
 
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Count me in too. I’ve properly had enough of this now.

If he wants to have a complete break-down of respect for law and the police, this is what we’re heading for. Whilst there’s plenty of zombie-people who seem more than happy to accept a base existence, I think there’s plenty more who properly aren’t - especially once the weather improves. “Stay at home” is already a complete joke round here, it won’t be long before we see packed beaches all over our screens all over again, and there’s going to be some serious agitation from business owners if he doesn’t get his finger out pretty sharpish. I was chatting to the owner of my regular Indian restaurant - he’s utterly fuming, yet he’s one of the lucky ones in that he has a pretty solid takeaway side which has kept him afloat, despite this he said his situation is now “dire”, a business which was previously so thriving that the restaurant twice had to be extended.

Is Johnson even sane? Can be not see that the country is on its knees, even if there’s happy furloughs and work from homes galavanting around enjoying the free time, do these people not realise we are going to be left with a ruined shell if this continues much longer?

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, I've seen on the local news interviews with business owners in the hospitality and leisure industry saying that many businesses in these sectors can only survive a few more months now. If they can't reopen fully without social distancing measures within just a few months from now, then many thousands will end up closing for good. There was a mention this week that many tourist attractions in Bath could end closing for good soon if they can't fully reopen without restrictions pretty soon.

I'm not impressed by Johnson over the last few weeks or so. Before then, he genuinely seemed determined to get this second wave defeated, to get the vaccines ramped up, and to start easing lockdown and restrictions and get life back to normal. Only as recently as last month he mentioned again that April 5th Easter we'll be back to near enough normal. But over the past few weeks he's changed, no more mentions of life back to near normal by April 5th Easter, and pushing the goalposts further by saying much much more of the population needs to be vaccinated first, and then "We then need to wait a few weeks after that to see the data", etc. Unfortunately it looks like he is being swayed by the likes of Whitty, Vallance, SAGE, and other so called "government advisors", "experts", etc with the nonsense they come up with. He's taking too much notice of them, and not taking into account the catastrophic damage all these restrictions are having on the economy, and the mental health of millions of people.
 

Bertie the bus

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I'm not entirely sure what opening larger hotels achieves if their dining rooms remain closed and pubs and restaurants are also closed (and one assumes indoor parts of cafes too).

How do they expect anyone to eat any meal at any point during the day if anywhere to eat is closed?
Perhaps they are assuming there will be a quarantine experience market. You're not allowed to go on foreign holidays but you can have the next best thing by being quarantined in a hotel for 10 days. Can't leave your room and all food will be dumped outside your door.
 

initiation

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The ever changing goal posts. It honestly feels like some sort of psychological game or abuse they are playing with us. We get fed bits of news like Hancock at the weekend saying we will have to learn to live with covid and then 2 days later somebody briefs that restrictions of some sort (social distancing) are essentially never ending.

I have no idea if it intentional (perhaps considering the number of behavioral scientists in SAGE) but it is bloody terrible.




It is also depressing how normalised this is becoming. I note the Daily Mail article posted above says pubs will be able to reopen as normal from July - but with social distancing. That is not normal. Why do people think it is. It is entirely abnormal and wil make many people jobless.
 

bramling

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Perhaps they are assuming there will be a quarantine experience market. You're not allowed to go on foreign holidays but you can have the next best thing by being quarantined in a hotel for 10 days. Can't leave your room and all food will be dumped outside your door.

It’s getting to the point where we should be expecting Boris to jump out and say “smile, you’ve all been on candid camera”. This gets more farcical with every day passing.

One can only assume they’re bothered that the vaccines aren’t fully effective in preventing transmission, and are worried the vaccinated oldies will go round giving Covid to others in vulnerable groups who haven’t yet been vaccinated. That’s the only rational explanation for the current situation. It certainly won’t be because they’re worried about young people getting it.
 

DorkingMain

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It’s getting to the point where we should be expecting Boris to jump out and say “smile, you’ve all been on candid camera”. This gets more farcical with every day passing.

One can only assume they’re bothered that the vaccines aren’t fully effective in preventing transmission, and are worried the vaccinated oldies will go round giving Covid to others in vulnerable groups who haven’t yet been vaccinated. That’s the only rational explanation for the current situation. It certainly won’t be because they’re worried about young people getting it.
By the end of April all the vulnerable should have been vaccinated, which does rather raise the question of why social distancing would still be necessary in July (when we're probably well on the way to having the entire adult population offered the vaccine)
 

Chester1

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My employer has told us it'll be "late summer" at the earliest before we're back in the office.

Nothing official from senior management but the general consensus of my colleagues seems to be that office numbers will be minimal for the rest of the year. Productivity has been pretty good with 95% or more homeworking which means there is not a huge incentive for us to return to normal. The expectation is that by time everyone is vaccinated the Autumn scare stories will have already started in the media.

Count me in too. I’ve properly had enough of this now.

If he wants to have a complete break-down of respect for law and the police, this is what we’re heading for. Whilst there’s plenty of zombie-people who seem more than happy to accept a base existence, I think there’s plenty more who properly aren’t - especially once the weather improves. “Stay at home” is already a complete joke round here, it won’t be long before we see packed beaches all over our screens all over again, and there’s going to be some serious agitation from business owners if he doesn’t get his finger out pretty sharpish. I was chatting to the owner of my regular Indian restaurant - he’s utterly fuming, yet he’s one of the lucky ones in that he has a pretty solid takeaway side which has kept him afloat, despite this he said his situation is now “dire”, a business which was previously so thriving that the restaurant twice had to be extended.

Is Johnson even sane? Can be not see that the country is on its knees, even if there’s happy furloughs and work from homes galavanting around enjoying the free time, do these people not realise we are going to be left with a ruined shell if this continues much longer?

There will be very few protests. There is a section of the public who don't want to return to normal and there is another section who will ignore the rules. Good weather will cause mass breaches but with most people pretending they are not.
 
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Will be interesting to see of the furlough scheme is extended in any way on the 22nd, Boris as you would expect dodged the question last week at PMQ
 

35B

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Thats ludicrous testing is double what it was and with false positives its never going to get that low. Positivity rates (less than 5% is WHO target for non pandemic conditions) are a more appropriate but even that wasn't on BoJos previous criteria of Covid deaths, vaccine rollout, new variants and pressure on hospital beds were the main determinants. CRG are saying nothing again but maybe this is just the Doves vs Hawks playing things out in the media so Boris can come out of it on a high next Monday.
Strange how other countries manage very low rates with all those false positives.
 

yorksrob

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I'm not entirely sure what opening larger hotels achieves if their dining rooms remain closed and pubs and restaurants are also closed (and one assumes indoor parts of cafes too).

How do they expect anyone to eat any meal at any point during the day if anywhere to eat is closed?

It is handy for visiting relatives. Did this a couple of times last year - although fortunately the dining room was open for breakfast.
 

YorkshireBear

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Nothing official from senior management but the general consensus of my colleagues seems to be that office numbers will be minimal for the rest of the year. Productivity has been pretty good with 95% or more homeworking which means there is not a huge incentive for us to return to normal. The expectation is that by time everyone is vaccinated the Autumn scare stories will have already started in the media.



There will be very few protests. There is a section of the public who don't want to return to normal and there is another section who will ignore the rules. Good weather will cause mass breaches but with most people pretending they are not.
Word I am getting around friends is more and more companies are realising some of their staff do sweet **** all at home. Varies widely between companies but certainly companies don't seem as collectively keen on WFH as they were in the summer.
 

yorksrob

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The ever changing goal posts. It honestly feels like some sort of psychological game or abuse they are playing with us. We get fed bits of news like Hancock at the weekend saying we will have to learn to live with covid and then 2 days later somebody briefs that restrictions of some sort (social distancing) are essentially never ending.

I have no idea if it intentional (perhaps considering the number of behavioral scientists in SAGE) but it is bloody terrible.




It is also depressing how normalised this is becoming. I note the Daily Mail article posted above says pubs will be able to reopen as normal from July - but with social distancing. That is not normal. Why do people think it is. It is entirely abnormal and wil make many people jobless.

July is far too late for hospitality. The imbeciles in SAGE will probably be trying to close them down again by then.
 

ChrisC

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There certainly appears to be a sizeable proportion of the population who presumably are either furloughed, working from home or retired, who don’t come across as particularly concerned if most of this year gets written off or whether or not they can actually go anywhere on holiday .
I can’t disagree with you that there are some furloughed, working from home and retired people like this. Certainly last summer, during the weeks of good weather, many seemed to be behaving like it was one long holiday, and no doubt there are some who would happily do the same again this year. However, although still perhaps a sizeable number, I think they are in the minority and most people in those categories now can’t wait to get back to normal.

I’m retired, live in a rural area with plenty of space for walking, and although I’ve not enjoyed the last year it hasn’t been too bad for me, but I’ve now completely had enough of it. I now can’t wait to get out and about and see my friends and visit relatives. I want to go out with friends for a meal and a drink. I want to get going again with day trips out on the train and above all to resume my regular holidays in various parts of the UK. I also want to get back to my regular visits to the theatre and concerts. Many people like me have spent very little money during the last year and have lots of disposable income to spend once lockdown is ended, which can only be good for getting the economy going again especially the hospitality and tourism industry. I do also know how difficult it has been for many and I do feel for the millions of people not so fortunate as me who have lost everything during the past year.
 

Mag_seven

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Word I am getting around friends is more and more companies are realising some of their staff do sweet **** all at home. Varies widely between companies but certainly companies don't seem as collectively keen on WFH as they were in the summer.

Given the number of cars I see at the beginning and end of the working day I would say that there are definitely more people not working from home as there were in the first "lockdown".
 

6862

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Will be interesting to see of the furlough scheme is extended in any way on the 22nd, Boris as you would expect dodged the question last week at PMQ

100% it will be extended, I suspect for another 6 months given that they don't seem to be planning on hospitality being fully open for another 6 months or so.
 

duncanp

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July is far too late for hospitality. The imbeciles in SAGE will probably be trying to close them down again by then.

If the plan which has been leaked to the Daily Mail this morning is anything to go by, hospitality will reopen in early May, with rules broadly similar to the old Tier 2. Then in June the rules will be relaxed so that they are like the old Tier 1. Then in July the rules will be relaxed further so that there are very few restrictions, if any, still remaining in place.

The effect on the hospitality industry will depend to a large extent on whether the public has any confidence that the timetable announced by the government is going to be stuck to. In other words, if they believe that pubs, restaurants and other venues will be open from late June/early July with few restrictions, then you will see an increase in advance bookings, which will increase business confidence.

I do think that the government must stick to whatever timetable they announce next week, regardless of the inevitable onslaught of doom laden forecasts from SAGE scientists and the pro lockdown brigade in general.

Also, I can't help but think that the dates announced next week will give Boris Johnson some leeway to bring the reopening dates forward if the various statistics are better than expected. He may say that the dates in the roadmap are the earliest that this or that can happen, but he is not legally obliged to stick to them.
 

joncombe

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I'm not entirely sure what opening larger hotels achieves if their dining rooms remain closed and pubs and restaurants are also closed (and one assumes indoor parts of cafes too).

How do they expect anyone to eat any meal at any point during the day if anywhere to eat is closed?
I would assume the reason why it's larger hotels would be that meals would be provided by room service and eaten in your room. Otherwise I tend to agree although I can't say the experience in Hotels was great last year even when the resturants were open.

I stayed at a Premier Inn for example and booked on their website including breakfast. There was no ability to select a time for breakfast when booking, but when I arrived at the hotel I was told they had very little capacity, so I had to book a time slot and the only time slot remaining was 6:30am (on a Sunday). I had another case where you even had to fill in a form for breakfast, request a time slot and what you wanted and hand it in to recepetion would then determine if you would be allowed to eat at that time. Not great, when I had time commitment's which meant I had to skip breakfast because the time I wanted wasn't available and the others were too late (nor did I get a refund for the missed breakfast).

Then in Autumn I got caught whilst away in Scotland where Sturegeon closed all the restaurant's, cafes and bars so the ONLY place to eat was the hotel, which again required time slots to be booked and did not have enough for everyone so I ended up a few times where the only option for food was to buy from a supermarket and eat it in my room. At that point you weren't even allowed to drink alcohol at all in the restaurant either.

In addition in one hotel I stayed the room wasn't cleaned for the entire week I was there and you had to ask at reception each day for tea/coffee and if you wanted any clean towels. These restrictions have destroyed the hotel experience for me. Hotel rooms don't provide kitchens and if you can't guarantee you will be able to eat out or even in the hotel restaurant, what's the point? So I think I will be looking for self catering this year since it looks like all these stupid rules will be in place all year at least.
 

DustyBin

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If the plan which has been leaked to the Daily Mail this morning is anything to go by, hospitality will reopen in early May, with rules broadly similar to the old Tier 2. Then in June the rules will be relaxed so that they are like the old Tier 1. Then in July the rules will be relaxed further so that there are very few restrictions, if any, still remaining in place.

The effect on the hospitality industry will depend to a large extent on whether the public has any confidence that the timetable announced by the government is going to be stuck to. In other words, if they believe that pubs, restaurants and other venues will be open from late June/early July with few restrictions, then you will see an increase in advance bookings, which will increase business confidence.

I do think that the government must stick to whatever timetable they announce next week, regardless of the inevitable onslaught of doom laden forecasts from SAGE scientists and the pro lockdown brigade in general.

Also, I can't help but think that the dates announced next week will give Boris Johnson some leeway to bring the reopening dates forward if the various statistics are better than expected. He may say that the dates in the roadmap are the earliest that this or that can happen, but he is not legally obliged to stick to them.

Tier 2 was a disaster, some pubs that could legally open didn’t bother as they would have lost money (some obviously couldn’t open at all). If this is what they want to do they need to bring the timetable forwards, the industry can’t afford to lose May/June/July. The Euros are being held in June and should provide a much needed bounce back; if restrictions are still in place it will be disastrous for the industry.
 

philosopher

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I'm not impressed by Johnson over the last few weeks or so. Before then, he genuinely seemed determined to get this second wave defeated, to get the vaccines ramped up, and to start easing lockdown and restrictions and get life back to normal. Only as recently as last month he mentioned again that April 5th Easter we'll be back to near enough normal. But over the past few weeks he's changed, no more mentions of life back to near normal by April 5th Easter, and pushing the goalposts further by saying much much more of the population needs to be vaccinated first, and then "We then need to wait a few weeks after that to see the data", etc. Unfortunately it looks like he is being swayed by the likes of Whitty, Vallance, SAGE, and other so called "government advisors", "experts", etc with the nonsense they come up with. He's taking too much notice of them, and not taking into account the catastrophic damage all these restrictions are having on the economy, and the mental health of millions of people.
Up until October, I actually think Johnson was doing alright, in that he did genuinely seemed to be trying to find a good balance between Covid-19 restrictions and allowing people and the economy to operate somewhat normally. He was clearly listening to what the scientific advisors said, but he was not slavishly following what they saying.

Since November he has essentially played scant regard to non Covid considerations. He seems to be following only what the scientific advisors say and ignoring everything else.
 

kristiang85

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Up until October, I actually think Johnson was doing alright, in that he did genuinely seemed to be trying to find a good balance between Covid-19 restrictions and allowing people and the economy to operate somewhat normally. He was clearly listening to what the scientific advisors said, but he was not slavishly following what they saying.

Since November he has essentially played scant regard to non Covid considerations. He seems to be following only what the scientific advisors say and ignoring everything else.

He does seem to be very weak now; I feel he is just the figurehead saying what he's told to rather than actually running the country. I have no idea how its got to this point where the most influential people seem to be these unelected scientists. I've followed Boris politically since his early days (having lived in his Henley constituency at one point, later lived under his London mayorship, and regularly read the Spectator in his editorial days) and all this just seems to be the antithesis of what he stands for.

I don't know what's changed, or who really is calling the shots, but I doubt it's him. Certainly I am having huge doubts he will see out his full term.

On the 1000 case rumour (I emphasise this is a rumour as this comes from a "Whitehall source" in one paper), interestingly this means 1.5 cases per 100,000 per day. The Zero COVID people are aiming for 10. So IF this is true, then this is a zero covid strategy, but even Whitty wouldn't go down this route. So that's why I have serious doubts of its veracity.
 

Class 33

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The ever changing goal posts. It honestly feels like some sort of psychological game or abuse they are playing with us. We get fed bits of news like Hancock at the weekend saying we will have to learn to live with covid and then 2 days later somebody briefs that restrictions of some sort (social distancing) are essentially never ending.

I have no idea if it intentional (perhaps considering the number of behavioral scientists in SAGE) but it is bloody terrible.




It is also depressing how normalised this is becoming. I note the Daily Mail article posted above says pubs will be able to reopen as normal from July - but with social distancing. That is not normal. Why do people think it is. It is entirely abnormal and wil make many people jobless.

Indeed.

I've just seen an article(which I've posted below) on The Mirror website with the headline "Covid roadmap to bring back socialising, pubs and holidays - with life "normal" by July. "Ah life back to normal by July. I can live with that.". But then I go into it and read that "The hospitality and holiday industries within Britain could be allowed to return to normal in July, it has been reported, but with social distancing measures continuing to stay in place." and "Government scientists are thought to want to keep social distancing rules in place for the "foreseeable future".. Ah for crying out loud. Social distancing continuing to remain in place is certainly NOT normal! For many thousands of businesses, social distancing measures makes it financially unviable for them to operate! The festivals and events season this year will be a complete and utter write-off again for the second year in a row. As you say it will also make many many thousands of people jobless, and for those who are and become unemployed, it's just damn near impossible to get another job!

With all these millions of vaccinations to the most vulnerable of people, and millions of vaccinations still continuing over the coming months, there will just be absolutely no need for social distancing and face mask wearing to continue! What would be the point of these ridiculous restrictions still continuing indefinitely??

I guess the press can get it wrong at times and these predictions may not happen. We'll have to just wait and see for sure come Monday night when Johnson announces this "roadmap". But I definitely get the feel that the many people like me who absolutely detest social distancing and want it to be hurried up and scrapped, are going to be in for a big disappointment. If so, then I really hope many thousands of business leaders, MP's and members of the public really start kicking up a fuss about this and demand that social distancing to be completely scrapped by mid summer at the very latest.



Lockdown roadmap brings back socialising, holidays, pubs and 'normal' life by July​

Ministers and industry leaders are said to be discussing a new blueprint for living with coronavirus that would see a gradual reversal of the crippling lockdown restrictions imposed since January

The government's plan to gradually lift lockdown could reportedly see us "broadly" back to normal by July with pubs open in May.

A blueprint of the plans is also set to bring back hotel holidays in April as part of a limited Easter easing, it is reported.

Boris Johnson and his cabinet are this week finalising plans to gradually bring the country out of lockdown.

The relaxation of the rules, put in place to tackle the spread of coronavirus, could be implemented at "four-weekly intervals", the Daily Mail reports.

The final stage would see life return to a form of normality, potentially still with measures such as face masks and social distancing, by July - 16 months after Boris Johnson first plunged the country into lockdown.

In the third national lockdown, which was announced a month ago, non-essential retailers as well as pubs and restaurants have all been forced to shut their doors.

The so-called government roadmap out of lockdown is expected to spell out plans being considered by the government for the relaxation of coronavirus restrictions in England.

Boris Johnson is set to present his plans next Monday, February 22.

An industyy source told The Mail: "The suggestion is that we would broadly go back to normal in late June or July."

So what has been proposed as a possible change to the rules in the coming months and when will it all happen?

Stage 1 - March

As has already been widely reported schools are expected to re-open from March 8.

The government has repeatedly said schools are the number one priority and that no other lockdown measures would be lifted before they are open.

It is still not known if there will be a phased return of pupils or if the government will ask all pupils to go back at once.

Earlier this month it was also reported that Boris Johnson is said to be prioritising open-air contact when lockdown does begin to ease.

He will reportedly spell out dates for the re-opening of retail and hospitality once pupils return to the classroom.

More outdoor activity is also expected to be allowed, which would permit sports such as golf and tennis, as well as some limited social gatherings outside.

This would be within weeks of the planned return of school.

The Times reported that outdoor markets were likely to be re-opened before high street shops, as well as outdoor eateries ahead of those operating indoors.

Stage 2 - from April

March 31 is the official date the current lockdown legislation for England ends and so MPs will have to approve any extension to lockdown rules after this date.

This will likely depend on case numbers, which have begun to fall, as well as vaccinations, which recently passed 15 million people.

Whatever is decided the new roadmap claims that traders will have to wait until at least Easter, in early April, before some lockdown measures affecting them are lifted.

It is said to be likely that the re-opening of holiday lets and hotels would be permitted, as well as outdoor activities such as golf and tennis.

Previous reports had suggested that self-catering holidays within the UK could be allowed by this point but only with your own household.

But Brits have also been warned against booking “elaborate” summer holidays later in the year - even if they’re just in the UK - because it is “too early to say” what the coronavirus crisis will look like.

Jonathan Van-Tam said complex holidays that cross borders or involve several households were stepping into “the unknown.”

Stage 3 - early May

Pubs, bars and restaurants will reportedly be next in line to have their restrictions lifted in early May under the new plans.

This will allow for a maximum of two households to be sat together indoors and the rule-of-six continuing to apply outdoors.

But when pubs do re-open at last it has already been widely reported that previous restrictions, such as the 10pm curfew and "substantial meal" requirement, will be scrapped.

It's also likely that 'Covid secure' measures would remain in place when they are allowed to serve customers again.

Stage 4 - June

The Mail's blueprint suggests that the rules for pubs and restaurants will be relaxed further by the half-way point of the year.

This is said to mean that the rule-of-six would begin to apply indoors as well as outdoors.

Stage 5 - July and 'broadly normal'

This is the month that ministers are hoping will see a return to relative normality with the hope that life could be 'broadly normal.'

The hospitality and holiday industries within Britain could be allowed to return to normal in July, it has been reported, but with social distancing measures continuing to stay in place.

Despite the return to lighter restrictions it is said that office staff are expected to be told to keep working from home when the roadmap is unveiled.

Government scientists are thought to want to keep social distancing rules in place for the "foreseeable future".

It is now thought that all adults could be given both vaccine doses by August as the rollout gathers pace.
 

initiation

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Strange how other countries manage very low rates with all those false positives.

Worth noting that our testing is on a different scale to many other countries. For example Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are often held up as examples as how to handle Covid.

Taiwan has done 374k tests in total since the start. We do that in ~12 hours.
South Korea has cumulatively done 6.3 million tests. We are cumulatively on 80 million tests.
Japan was on Jan 8th at a total of 5.3 million tests. We were cumulatively on 57 million tests on the same day.

It seems, the more you look, the more you find.
 

matt

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I would just steer clear of the papers over the next few days - they are going to be full of "exclusives", "leaks" and "takes on things".

Lets just see what Boris Johnson actually has to say on Monday.
This is probably the best advice on this thread so far, wait until Monday when the plan is actually announced rather than what the media think it may or may not be.
 

duncanp

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Tier 2 was a disaster, some pubs that could legally open didn’t bother as they would have lost money (some obviously couldn’t open at all). If this is what they want to do they need to bring the timetable forwards, the industry can’t afford to lose May/June/July. The Euros are being held in June and should provide a much needed bounce back; if restrictions are still in place it will be disastrous for the industry.

I see that the first match in Euro 2021 is on June 11th, which coincides with the start of the G7 summit in Cornwall.

I think we will see the rules for the hospitality sector loosened to something like the old Tier 1 before then, possibly in time for the bank holiday at the end of May.

As to the effect of Tier 2 on the hospitality sector, it depends on the precise rules which are in place. There is likely to be no 10pm closing time, no silly rules about substantial meals, some limited household mixing allowed indoors and more household mixing allowed outdoors.

Whilst this may not be ideal for pubs and restaurants, the mere fact that they are open at all will be a relief to many and I think many people, myself included, will tolerate some restrictions IF they are only going to be in place for a short while.

Eat Out To Help Out was a big success, and it may be that the hospitality sector can launch its' own version of the scheme to encourage people to venture out at times when the pub or restaurant would otherwise be empty, particularly those who are a little anxious about mixing with people from other households.

It may also be the case that there is additional help for the hospitality sector in the budget, the help tide them over until they can get back to normal operations.
 

Hawkwood Junc

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Bromley
Watching the 6 nations at the weekend, it struck me a) how much I missed going, b) how odd it seemed without fans in the stadium. For some reason I'm used to football without fans but an international rugby match felt bizarre. and c) just how much not having fans in the stadium impacts so many sectors.

82,000 would've been expected to attend on Saturday in normal times. The multiple millions in ticket money would pay the stewards, the portaloo suppliers etc and go into the RFU where it is allocated to the clubs of all shapes and sizes from the likes of Harlequins, Bath, Exeter, Leicester etc down to the smallest village team. If these places lower down the chain disappear in greater numbers, as they are, that will have further detrimental affects on the health and well being of the users of these clubs. People will lose their chosen place for exercise, socialising and recreation.

The bar and food take. That's many tens of thousands of pints and food not purchased from suppliers, many hundreds of staff not employed (many casual employee, younger people). The outside catering is normally a bunch of medium sized businesses who wouldn't be buying supplies, won't be paying staff. The local pubs and restaurants who normally experience massively increased footfall on matchdays as well as Harlequins themselves who normally take some of the spillover hospitality.

Then, of course to the railway, buses, coach companies, cabbies, car parks etc and all the means for the 82,000 people plus staff to get to the ground for the event.

Multiply that by 3 for the 3 home games in this year's 6 nations plus the 4 lost games in the autumn. Of course, similar will of course be happening at Murrayfield and Cardiff.

So while people think that events etc are an indulgence and should be low down on the list to restar, I feel that it's not just about people enjoying themselves but livelihoods depend on it. Too many people seem to think the economy is 'fat cats', Tesco, HSBC etc when in most cases it's small and medium businesses that play a huge role in a large number of lives, not just, economically but physically and mentally too.

Then we get on to cricket, similar situation. A second summer without supporters could be awful, awful news for the game below international level.
 

Jamesrob637

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12 Aug 2016
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5,208
Will be interesting to see of the furlough scheme is extended in any way on the 22nd, Boris as you would expect dodged the question last week at PMQ

The Travel (my) industry will need some sort of extension. Travel won't just pick up again like that.

I think many people, myself included, will tolerate some restrictions IF they are only going to be in place for a short while.

Eat Out To Help Out was a big success

Rumour has it that Eat Out To Help Out led to a small jump in cases and a very small jump in deaths however this would have been offset by more catastrophic effects elsewhere (suicides, bankruptcies) had it not occurred
 

duncanp

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16 Aug 2012
Messages
4,856
Rumour has it that Eat Out To Help Out led to a small jump in cases and a very small jump in deaths however this would have been offset by more catastrophic effects elsewhere (suicides, bankruptcies) had it not occurred

The really large jump in cases only occurred in September, after Eat Out To Help Out had finished.

It would be very difficult to prove that Eat Out To Help Out was directly responsible for any increase in cases that occurred whilst it was operational.
 

DustyBin

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20 Sep 2020
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Watching the 6 nations at the weekend, it struck me a) how much I missed going, b) how odd it seemed without fans in the stadium. For some reason I'm used to football without fans but an international rugby match felt bizarre. and c) just how much not having fans in the stadium impacts so many sectors.

82,000 would've been expected to attend on Saturday in normal times. The multiple millions in ticket money would pay the stewards, the portaloo suppliers etc and go into the RFU where it is allocated to the clubs of all shapes and sizes from the likes of Harlequins, Bath, Exeter, Leicester etc down to the smallest village team. If these places lower down the chain disappear in greater numbers, as they are, that will have further detrimental affects on the health and well being of the users of these clubs. People will lose their chosen place for exercise, socialising and recreation.

The bar and food take. That's many tens of thousands of pints and food not purchased from suppliers, many hundreds of staff not employed (many casual employee, younger people). The outside catering is normally a bunch of medium sized businesses who wouldn't be buying supplies, won't be paying staff. The local pubs and restaurants who normally experience massively increased footfall on matchdays as well as Harlequins themselves who normally take some of the spillover hospitality.

Then, of course to the railway, buses, coach companies, cabbies, car parks etc and all the means for the 82,000 people plus staff to get to the ground for the event.

Multiply that by 3 for the 3 home games in this year's 6 nations plus the 4 lost games in the autumn. Of course, similar will of course be happening at Murrayfield and Cardiff.

So while people think that events etc are an indulgence and should be low down on the list to restar, I feel that it's not just about people enjoying themselves but livelihoods depend on it. Too many people seem to think the economy is 'fat cats', Tesco, HSBC etc when in most cases it's small and medium businesses that play a huge role in a large number of lives, not just, economically but physically and mentally too.

Then we get on to cricket, similar situation. A second summer without supporters could be awful, awful news for the game below international level.

A lot of people simply don't realise the knock on effects of closing down whole sectors of the economy. There are people who take the attitude of "I don't like pubs (for example) so let them close" which is not only incredibly selfish but fails to recognise the effect this would have on the their large and diverse supply chains.

I'd add that those people who think everything should stop just so they can continue to work from home are short sighted to say the least; a lot of them may find their jobs aren't as secure as they think. The economic impact of all of this is likely to to be deep and far reaching.
 

Freightmaster

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Joined
7 Jul 2009
Messages
3,471
Strange how other countries manage very low rates with all those false positives.
I've answered this before: they are either running their PCR testing with a much higher 'threshold',
or are exclusively using Lateral Flow (rapid) tests, which don't have the false positive issue as their
threshold is far higher than PCR testing in the first place.

The UK is currently transitioning from PCR to lateral flow (ratio is currently around 50/50),
so if that trend continues in the coming weeks in combination with falling prevalence in general,
false positives will eventually become background noise, just as they were last Summer.


In other words, if we can get to the point where (say) 80% of tests being conducted each day are lateral flow,
it could be feasible to get below the 'magic' 1000 positive tests per day figure by Easter.



MARK
 
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