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New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

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duncanp

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One good thing about today's press conference was that Boris announced that, from Monday, there will be daily statistics published on how many people have been vaccinated.

This will enable people to see the progress being made, and will leave the government nowhere to hide if there are problems or delays.

It will be rather like a cricket match where the batting side needs to score X runs per over to win, and currently they are scoring Y runs per over. If Y is greater than X, then it is likely that the batting side will win. But if X is greater than Y, and the gap between X and Y is getting larger, then the batting side will lose.

Similarly with the vaccine statistics.

Boris has said that they aim to vaccinate the 13.4 million people in the top 4 priority groups by 15th February. According to what he said today, 1.3 million has already been vaccinated, so that is 12.1 million in the next six weeks, so just over 2 million per week. At the moment we are not vaccinating anywhere near that number of people, so it doesn't look as if the target will be met. But you can estimate how many people will have been vaccinated by your target date, or how far past your target date it will take to vaccinate the required number of people.

It may be, for example, that if 75% of the target group of 13.4 million have been vaccinated by 15th February, the government will be in a position to consider easing restrictions, as those 75% will account for a sufficiently large proportion of expected COVID cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

But the government needs to monitor progress continuously, and have someone in charge who can "kick ass"so to speak, and remove red tape anything which prevents progress from being made.
 
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kristiang85

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Chris seems refreshingly positive today from what I've seen - very keen to stress that zero risk isn't achievable, and that a political decision will have to be taken to accept risk at some point.

Not particularly keen on his throwaway comment about restrictions potentially being needed again next winter, though!

He's made a few comments lately on the risk acceptance, which I can see is a good thing.

I didn't see the conference, but if he suggested restrictions next winter, then that's appalling. If that's the case, then we might as well enshrine in law restrictions every winter, as the metrics will never change.
 

Yew

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One good thing about today's press conference was that Boris announced that, from Monday, there will be daily statistics published on how many people have been vaccinated.

This will enable people to see the progress being made, and will leave the government nowhere to hide if there are problems or delays.

It will be rather like a cricket match where the batting side needs to score X runs per over to win, and currently they are scoring Y runs per over. If Y is greater than X, then it is likely that the batting side will win. But if X is greater than Y, and the gap between X and Y is getting larger, then the batting side will lose.

Similarly with the vaccine statistics.

Boris has said that they aim to vaccinate the 13.4 million people in the top 4 priority groups by 15th February. According to what he said today, 1.3 million has already been vaccinated, so that is 12.1 million in the next six weeks, so just over 2 million per week. At the moment we are not vaccinating anywhere near that number of people, so it doesn't look as if the target will be met. But you can estimate how many people will have been vaccinated by your target date, or how far past your target date it will take to vaccinate the required number of people.

It may be, for example, that if 75% of the target group of 13.4 million have been vaccinated by 15th February, the government will be in a position to consider easing restrictions, as those 75% will account for a sufficiently large proportion of expected COVID cases, hospitalisations and deaths.

But the government needs to monitor progress continuously, and have someone in charge who can "kick ass"so to speak, and remove red tape anything which prevents progress from being made.
What's the Duckworth-Lewis score, if we can get over that number, does all of this go away?
 

HSTEd

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So whitty now admits he will demand lockdowns next winter as well.
 

Dent

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Boris has said that they aim to vaccinate the 13.4 million people in the top 4 priority groups by 15th February. According to what he said today, 1.3 million has already been vaccinated, so that is 12.1 million in the next six weeks, so just over 2 million per week. At the moment we are not vaccinating anywhere near that number of people, so it doesn't look as if the target will be met. But you can estimate how many people will have been vaccinated by your target date, or how far past your target date it will take to vaccinate the required number of people.
"At the moment" is based on only the first day of the mass rollout of the Oxford Vaccine, which is not yet fully up to speed, and the previous period when only the Pfizer vaccine was available with its limited availability and difficult logistics. Why do you think this means that the target will not being met once the Oxford vaccination program is up to speed?
 

MikeWM

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So whitty now admits he will demand lockdowns next winter as well.

Of course - the idea has been normalised now, so it will be the default response to any health issue that people make enough noise about.

That's why it isn't enough to just go 'phew, that's over' - if it ever is. We have to demonstrate and persuade that it was totally wrong, else it will happen again and again.
 

Darandio

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"At the moment" is based on only the first day of the mass rollout of the Oxford Vaccine, which is not yet fully up to speed, and the previous period when only the Pfizer vaccine was available with its limited availability and difficult logistics. Why do you think this means that the target will not being met once the Oxford vaccination program is up to speed?

Because it depends on so many things, a critical one currently is a shortage of materials which hopefully can be addressed. Producing the vaccine seems to be the least of our problems, it's storing and distributing that is the bottleneck right now.

Personally i'm very wary of when they shout these huge numbers. We saw it all last year and targets were rarely met if ever. Even if they were it tended to be because of fudged month end figures.
 

Lampshade

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I'll trust your figures over mine on this. I don't remember us going over 1,000, but I think I've got mixed up between date of death and date of reporting.
I don't recall us going over 1000 either, not reported anyway.

That said, we almost certainly did.
 

Mojo

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I don't recall us going over 1000 either, not reported anyway.

That said, we almost certainly did.
I remember reports of over 1,000 but this was before August when the count was revised to only include deaths within 28 days of a positive test; prior to this there was no time limit.
 

duncanp

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"At the moment" is based on only the first day of the mass rollout of the Oxford Vaccine, which is not yet fully up to speed, and the previous period when only the Pfizer vaccine was available with its limited availability and difficult logistics. Why do you think this means that the target will not being met once the Oxford vaccination program is up to speed?

I said it doesn't look as if the target will be met, if you just look at those figures.

I sincerely hope that is not the case, and that the roll out of the Oxford vaccine means that the number of vaccinations per week increases to a level which enables the target to be met.

Having statistics published every day means that the government can monitor progress, detect problems as they arise and deal with them.

Once the 15th February arrives, we will know whether the target has been met. If it has, all well and good. If it has not, the government will have to decide whether to start easing restrictions, or wait until the target has been met.
 

brad465

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Apparently 2 % of the population currently have the virus. At this rate, we should have another 10 % or so immune within a couple of weeks. I wonder if this might speed the decline in case numbers? I realise such thinking is not approved of in our free and democratic society, but it's worth considering.
I've often thought the same throughout this wave alone, especially when immunity by previous infection is combined by immunity from the mass vaccine rollout.
He's made a few comments lately on the risk acceptance, which I can see is a good thing.

I didn't see the conference, but if he suggested restrictions next winter, then that's appalling. If that's the case, then we might as well enshrine in law restrictions every winter, as the metrics will never change.
What should be being said in response to the concept of restrictions next winter is "get healthcare capacity up right now!" or something similar. Next winter is nearly a year away, they should be getting all those 40,000 nurse vacancies filled ASAP and perhaps more nurses where possible, and improve their pay and conditions for the sake of retention and easier recruitment. Even if that's costly, it must be cheaper than the economic consequences of more restrictions when suggested.
 

HSTEd

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I've often thought the same throughout this wave alone, especially when immunity by previous infection is combined by immunity from the mass vaccine rollout.

What should be being said in response to the concept of restrictions next winter is "get healthcare capacity up right now!" or something similar. Next winter is nearly a year away, they should be getting all those 40,000 nurse vacancies filled ASAP and perhaps more nurses where possible, and improve their pay and conditions for the sake of retention and easier recruitment. Even if that's costly, it must be cheaper than the economic consequences of more restrictions when suggested.

Training nurses takes literal years.
 

Class 33

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So whitty now admits he will demand lockdowns next winter as well.

Lockdowns next winter? Absolutely no way! This lockdown really has got to be the very last lockdown of this pandemic now. All these lockdowns and restrictions have done enough catastrophic damage as it is. By next winter, much of the population of the country will have been vaccinated! If Whitty demands this for next winter, hope Johnson(or if there's another PM by then, whoever that is) tells them where to go.

To be fair though, Whitty didn't actually say that lockdowns may be needed next winter, he said measures may be needed then. But of course the press and media have got excited and are going on about lockdowns next winter!
 

brad465

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Training nurses takes literal years.
However long it takes, the point of retention still stands, especially given all the stories of demoralised nurses on the front line. While it might take years, there must also be some coming through in the next year for existing training. Maybe not 40,000, but every last one helps.
 

Dent

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I said it doesn't look as if the target will be met, if you just look at those figures.

I sincerely hope that is not the case, and that the roll out of the Oxford vaccine means that the number of vaccinations per week increases to a level which enables the target to be met.
But as I pointed out, looking at those figures does not give any indication of the speed that the Oxford vaccine will be delivered once the delivery is up to speed.
 

midland1

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If targets are not met then heads should roll ! But I doubt it no matter how bad you are at a job in this government you still keep your job.
 

Domh245

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Once the 15th February arrives, we will know whether the target has been met. If it has, all well and good. If it has not, the government will have to decide whether to start easing restrictions, or wait until the target has been met.

Even if they meet the target by the 15th, any restriction easing will take best part of a month at least to filter through. There's a couple of weeks for the vaccines to actually take effect, and then an additional couple of weeks for healthcare capacity to become available again

However long it takes, the point of retention still stands, especially given all the stories of demoralised nurses on the front line. While it might take years, there must also be some coming through in the next year for existing training. Maybe not 40,000, but every last one helps.

If nothing else, we can build up some world class palliative care facilities
 

duncanp

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Lockdowns next winter? Absolutely no way! This lockdown really has got to be the very last lockdown of this pandemic now. All these lockdowns and restrictions have done enough catastrophic damage as it is. By next winter, much of the population of the country will have been vaccinated! If Whitty demands this for next winter, hope Johnson(or if there's another PM by then, whoever that is) tells them where to go.

To be fair though, Whitty didn't actually say that lockdowns may be needed next winter, he said measures may be needed then. But of course the press and media are going on about lockdowns next winter!

I agree.

There is absolutely no way that the public will tolerate a complete lockdown like the one we are in now next winter.

It will destroy what is left of the economy, have an incalculable effect on the education of children,cause huge mental health problems and an increase in suicides, and likely lead to civil disobedience.

Also, we will simply not be able to afford it. As I have said on these forums before, the economic cost of all these lockdown measures has been swept under the carpet, but come the budget on 3rd March we will have to start paying for all of this, and once people realise the costs involved, they might not be so keen to see any more restrictions.

And ultimately, if we do not have a functioning and strong economy, we will not be able to pay for the NHS in the future.

Any restrictions next winter are likely to be along the lines of advice about shielding, working from home where possible, asking people to reduce the number of journeys they take, and possibly some limits (but not an outright ban) on household mixing.
 

Skimpot flyer

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Yes, in care homes, in the incredibly weak. It doesn't do that to relatively healthy individuals, or in some cases incredibly fit and healthy individuals in the case of Long Covid, which is what Covid is capable of.

Put simply if I (29, healthy) get a cold at worse I'm getting a sore throat. But if I catch Covid there is real possibility (small yes but significant enough to be concerning) that I could end up in hospital with serious side effects. And even if I don't there is a significant chance (1 in 5 (source: NICE/NHS) of some sort of Long Covid symptoms which include significant respiratory and neurological problems.

Now that sounds like a disease we should take seriously.
You clearly did not listen to this, then
Key points made by Chris Whitty
• A significant proportion of people will not get this virus at all
• Of those that do, some will get it without even knowing it
• Probably 80% will experience a mild infection, not bad enough for them to go to the doctor
• An unfortunate minority will have to go to hospital, but most of those will need oxygen and will be home within days
• A minority of those will need to go into critical care, and sadly some of those will die
 

Bertie the bus

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It isn't May 2020. Why do people choose a specific point in time when someone said something they wanted to hear and pretend nothing has happened since? It happens all the time with masks and various other aspects of this disease and response to it. Argue your case but don't pretend something from 9 months ago is necessarily relevant to now.
 

Skimpot flyer

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That’s your opinion, which you’re entitled to.
Well if it was expressly against the rules, why would the government put Post Offices on the list of businesses that can remain open? Banks are on that list. Are you saying that a walk to a bank to withdraw cash is a breach of the law!
 

Andyh82

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So whitty now admits he will demand lockdowns next winter as well.
No he didn’t. He said that some measures may have to happen, but then later said no where near like the measures we have now.

Could be something like rolling out a standard vaccine every winter like the flu jab, or the highest risk groups being encouraged to wear masks.

I have to say this forum is getting a bit too ranty and ravy lately for my liking
 

Skimpot flyer

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It isn't May 2020. Why do people choose a specific point in time when someone said something they wanted to hear and pretend nothing has happened since? It happens all the time with masks and various other aspects of this disease and response to it. Argue your case but don't pretend something from 9 months ago is necessarily relevant to now.
What has changed? The virus has not mutated to become more deadly. What was said then applies as much now as then
 

brad465

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Also, we will simply not be able to afford it. As I have said on these forums before, the economic cost of all these lockdown measures has been swept under the carpet, but come the budget on 3rd March we will have to start paying for all of this, and once people realise the costs involved, they might not be so keen to see any more restrictions.

And ultimately, if we do not have a functioning and strong economy, we will not be able to pay for the NHS in the future.
I agree, although do wonder if the budget in question will mention the sorts of measures that will make people think against further restrictions, given Sunak is also believed to be trying to hold up popularity on the prospect of being PM. Then of course there's the matter of whether or not the budget will actually happen on that date, given it would not be the first time it's been delayed (although the fact the spending review happened suggests maybe it will go ahead on the 3rd March).
 

Bertie the bus

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What has changed? The virus has not mutated to become more deadly. What was said then applies as much now as then
Our understanding; additional research; the appearance of long COVID. Many, many things have changed and just rehashing something you liked from 9 months ago totally destroys your argument and credibility.
 

kristiang85

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Our understanding; additional research; the appearance of long COVID. Many, many things have changed and just rehashing something you liked from 9 months ago totally destroys your argument and credibility.

if anything our understanding has improved prognosis (new treatments, drugs, etc.) so we are in a much better position than in May.

And, as I said above, 'long COVID' is post viral syndrome given a new name by the media. It's a fact of life for many viruses.
 

Huntergreed

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Our understanding
Is pretty much the same now as it was then. The points made by Professor Whitty are still valid and in line with what we know about the virus today.

additional research

Please do share some research that disproves the points made, I am not aware of any at this time.

the appearance of long COVID.

Long COVID is just the 'doom and gloom' name for Post Viral Fatigue (very common with many viruses), and it's being used (disgustingly) to scare those who are not at risk into compliance (it's pretty much the government lying to scare us into doing what they want).

Many, many things have changed and just rehashing something you liked from 9 months ago totally destroys your argument and credibility.

Indeed they have, but this isn't one of those things. As far as I am aware, the risk remains the same (very very low), if not even lower now we know the potential extent of asymptomatic infections.
 
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