New South Western franchise: Awarded to First/MTR

[HH]

75x8-car + 15x10-car = 90 trains and 750 cars.
Nice round numbers. No idea if this is likely.

Not at all likely, as they will likely be a mixture of 5- and 10-car units, like the 707s and the re-configured 458s. 60 x 10-car and 30 x 5-car seems to fit.

 

[HH]

Isn't GTR a management contract? If so the DfT can make them do what it likes provided it coughs up.

DfT can always get TOCs to do stuff if they pay for it (but no, it's not a management contract officially; I have been over this before), but why would they want 707s?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Because the more bi-modes there are around, the more excuses DfT has to stop electrification schemes. Even if I recognize that further 3rd rail electrification is extremely unlikely, they'd probably be capable of being converted to AC operation just like most other 3rd rail EMUs ordered recently. Therefore the problem would still apply, as they'd be available in the future.

Also, in addition to a political consideration, which I admit to be my main concern,two operational ones: bi-modes are more expensive, and that might tip the business case; and there may not be enough capacity on the juice rail for the added drain caused by the current DMU operated services switching to electric,

Only a couple of years ago, we were anticipating Electric Spine in CP6 with AC operation west of Basingstoke to Southampton (and therefore needing dual-voltage stock).
Proof that the whole DC-AC conversion thing has been ditched.

 

[Bletchleyite]

DfT can always get TOCs to do stuff if they pay for it (but no, it's not a management contract officially; I have been over this before), but why would they want 707s?

Because (a) they have metro services, and (b) they already use Desiro Cities?

 

[HH]

But for southeastern it's not going to be cheap, since they need a depot to house the 707s, which doesn't currently exist.

They would be replacing other stock, and it's no bigger (and probably smaller) than the depot problems they would have had if TfL had taken over the "Metros".

 

[pompeyfan]

The way I've read it is that the 2Exx stopper will be extended to Bournemouth picking up the Poole stopper calls, with the Weymouth train being semi fast?

 

[infobleep]

That's about the same as they are paying now, I guess this is due to having to buy lots of expensive new trains over a relatively short franchise.

Playing devils advocate here, could they not save money by not replacing the 707s?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If it's not required in the franchise why bother with all the hassle?

Because the ROSCO will want to be able to lease the stock to other operators during its lifetime.
That's why DC EMUs come with AC capability - just in case.
They will also want space to fit ETCS kit and any other gubbins used on the national railway.

 

[HH]

Because (a) they have metro services, and (b) they already use Desiro Cities?

They have some Desiros, but they have a hell of a lot more Electrostars. If you were going to replace anything the Desiros would make more sense, but first up would surely be the 313s and the 707s wouldn't be suitable for that.

 

[HH]

Playing devils advocate here, could they not save money by not replacing the 707s?

How do you work that out?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The 442's are going to recieve a full refurbishment as well as retractioning.

Are SWR going to complete the 455 retractioning now, if they are heading for the scrap heap in 3 years?
Could the retractioning exercise be moved to the 442s instead, which now have a life ahead of them?

 

[4973]

I have no love for Chelsea tractors, but just about every car is bigger, especially consider the classic Mini and it's modern day counterpart

Sorry to go a little off-topic but I believe much of that is from government crash worthiness regulations. If any member knows otherwise I'm happy to be corrected.

 

[HH]

Are SWR going to complete the 455 retractioning now, if they are heading for the scrap heap in 3 years?
Could the retractioning exercise be moved to the 442s instead, which now have a life ahead of them?

First/MTR are doing the 442s. Stagecoach are doing the 455s, but I suspect it's in the ROSCO's hands on the re-tractioning. So it depends whether they agree that they're 'heading for the scrap heap' or not.

Obviously some 442s are available now, but the rest are still in service; you wouldn't want to start the job until you knew for sure that you would be able to finish the job in one hit.

Also depends on what First/MTR's plans are for Bournemouth.

 

[HH]

Sorry to go a little off-topic but I believe much of that is from government crash worthiness regulations. If any member knows otherwise I'm happy to be corrected.

When I commented on this phenomenon to a Manager of a large dealership, he said that it was driven by customers always wanting more from the new model. But maybe that was just his perception...

 

[ChiefPlanner]

What about this proposed "open access" operation on the Soton main line ? (and how this might fit with the 442's supposedly claimed - bar the odd handful)

 

[Bletchleyite]

When I commented on this phenomenon to a Manager of a large dealership, he said that it was driven by customers always wanting more from the new model. But maybe that was just his perception...

"Model inflation" has been around for years - with each iteration the car gets slightly bigger, then eventually a new smaller model is inserted at the bottom. It's quite visible in Vauxhall's range as they have used (mostly) the same names for many years.

There's a solid reasoning behind it - people like familiarity, so as they (hopefully) get better off they keep buying the Astra (say) as it turns from a smallish hot-rod into a full-sized family hatchback into a more premium-looking vehicle.

 

[AndyW33]

Are SWR going to complete the 455 retractioning now, if they are heading for the scrap heap in 3 years?
Could the retractioning exercise be moved to the 442s instead, which now have a life ahead of them?

Isn't this very much a matter for the ROSCOs which own the 442s and the 455s?
They aren't the same.
First-MTR have obviously come to an agreement with Angel, who own the 442s, for them to be retractioned. This can be done without disruption as the trains are stored.
Stagecoach already has an agreement with Porterbrook, the owners of the Class 455s, and Vossloh-Kniepe, the suppliers of the equipment, for the 455s to be retractioned.

Stagecoach probably couldn't care less at this stage, but unless Porterbrook/Vossloh and Angel make a deal to transfer equipment still in manufacture to the 442s, the contracts have to take their course.

 

[TEW]

The original reason for retractioning the 455s still remains too. It's needed to free up maintenance space for the 707s at Wimbledon Park. They're still going to be maintaining them up to 2020 potentially.

 

[swt_passenger]

The way I've read it is that the 2Exx stopper will be extended to Bournemouth picking up the Poole stopper calls, with the Weymouth train being semi fast?

The DfT "benefits map" mentions 2 things, extending a Portsmouth to Southampton service to Weymouth, (so not Bournemouth or Poole), AND adding another fast service between Portsmouth and Southampton:

> new direct Portsmouth to Weymouth services on weekdays and Saturdays

> 29 additional weekday and Saturday services between Portsmouth & Southsea
and Southampton Central, including more and faster peak services

http://maps.dft.gov.uk/south-western-franchise/

Seems to me that either of the two future services could be extended. My gut feeling is that given the overall end to end time for Portsmouth to Weymouth it may be better if the faster of the two that gets extended, simply to give the best advertised timings.

To answer some of the previous odd suggestions about this, I also don't see it having anything to do with extending a service that has come from Waterloo, i.e. with a reversal at Portsmouth.

 

[Muzer]

Well this is very disappointing. I have always found Stagecoach South West Trains to be by far the best TOC in the UK so it will really be a shame to see them go.

Putting the 442s back in to service on SWT is ludicrous. The 444s are bad enough with their unsuitable layout but the 442s are even worse with their very narrow doors at each ends of the coaches and limited disabled access. This is really a backwards step. Would they should really be doing is ordering more 350 / 360 / 450 / 700 / 707 style trains.

Another thing is when the 442s were originally with SWT they had full Guards panels which allowed the Guard to open and close the doors. The when they were sent to Govia they were converted to operate DOO and had the Guards panels replaced with new very basic panels which only have a close button and a signal button (they don't have open buttons or local door controls). I hope First will bring back the old full panels as otherwise they will probably try to use this as an excuse to convert to DOO.

I really worry that First are going to try to go DOO on this new franchise. At the moment Stagecoach have never been involved in any DOO operations. Where as First have run lots of DOO on a large amount of their franchises. If they try to bring DOO it will certainly cause GTR style chaos on SWT (maybe even worse the GTR). I hope they will keep Guards on 100% of trains and keep their duties exactly the same (rather then introducing Driver opens Guard closes operations or anything like that).

I also really hope First continue to call them Guards and don't use some ridiculous name like Conductor / Senior Conductor / Train Manager / Train Captain etc.

It will be crazy if the 707s get replaced seeing as they have just been ordered and are still in the process of entering service. That is such a waste of time and money. It is very disappointing that they have no plans to replace the 158s and 159s at the moment. These trains really need to be replaced. They have such an unsuitable layout and are getting quite old. It would be far better to spend money on replacing the 158s and 159s than replacing the 707s.

While First are much better than Govia they are still not really that good. They didn't do a good job at First Capital Connect and haven't really done a good job at First Great Western either. I just hope they don't mess up their new SWT operations.

I find the layouts of 444s and 159s to be very suitable for the longer-distance services they usually work. It's when you get the 444 on the stopper from Waterloo to Basingstoke that you start to question their suitability

 

[HH]

"Model inflation" has been around for years - with each iteration the car gets slightly bigger, then eventually a new smaller model is inserted at the bottom. It's quite visible in Vauxhall's range as they have used (mostly) the same names for many years.

There's a solid reasoning behind it - people like familiarity, so as they (hopefully) get better off they keep buying the Astra (say) as it turns from a smallish hot-rod into a full-sized family hatchback into a more premium-looking vehicle.

That makes sense. My Astra of the late 80s was fun to drive - I wouldn't say the same of the current day monster, which is much bigger (and less fun) than the Cavalier I replaced it with.

 

[HH]

What about this proposed "open access" operation on the Soton main line ? (and how this might fit with the 442's supposedly claimed - bar the odd handful)

Discussed in passing earlier. There will be 6 units left over (probably why the 442 rumours got out) which is what they were after. Not that this service will ever happen.

 

[greaterwest]

I find the layouts of 444s and 159s to be very suitable for the longer-distance services they usually work. It's when you get the 444 on the stopper from Waterloo to Basingstoke that you start to question their suitability

Which is thankfully only booked to happen a couple of times a day, and one of the booked 444 services is fast from Clapham to Woking, then all stops to Basingstoke.

 

[Fincra5]

Well this is very disappointing. I have always found Stagecoach South West Trains to be by far the best TOC in the UK so it will really be a shame to see them go.

Putting the 442s back in to service on SWT is ludicrous. The 444s are bad enough with their unsuitable layout but the 442s are even worse with their very narrow doors at each ends of the coaches and limited disabled access. This is really a backwards step. Would they should really be doing is ordering more 350 / 360 / 450 / 700 / 707 style trains.

Another thing is when the 442s were originally with SWT they had full Guards panels which allowed the Guard to open and close the doors. The when they were sent to Govia they were converted to operate DOO and had the Guards panels replaced with new very basic panels which only have a close button and a signal button (they don't have open buttons or local door controls). I hope First will bring back the old full panels as otherwise they will probably try to use this as an excuse to convert to DOO.

I really worry that First are going to try to go DOO on this new franchise. At the moment Stagecoach have never been involved in any DOO operations. Where as First have run lots of DOO on a large amount of their franchises. If they try to bring DOO it will certainly cause GTR style chaos on SWT (maybe even worse the GTR). I hope they will keep Guards on 100% of trains and keep their duties exactly the same (rather then introducing Driver opens Guard closes operations or anything like that).

I also really hope First continue to call them Guards and don't use some ridiculous name like Conductor / Senior Conductor / Train Manager / Train Captain etc.

It will be crazy if the 707s get replaced seeing as they have just been ordered and are still in the process of entering service. That is such a waste of time and money. It is very disappointing that they have no plans to replace the 158s and 159s at the moment. These trains really need to be replaced. They have such an unsuitable layout and are getting quite old. It would be far better to spend money on replacing the 158s and 159s than replacing the 707s.

While First are much better than Govia they are still not really that good. They didn't do a good job at First Capital Connect and haven't really done a good job at First Great Western either. I just hope they don't mess up their new SWT operations.

The full 442 Guards Panel is still there... its just had some buttons blanked off. There was unit running around with the guard controls uncovered for a while.

What SN did was to disable some of them. That can't be too hard to fix.. they'll be doing enough work as it is on the train.

 

[Muzer]

Obviously some 442s are available now, but the rest are still in service; you wouldn't want to start the job until you knew for sure that you would be able to finish the job in one hit.

Where? There are no 442s in service now. Last ones ran early this month, IIRC.

 

[HH]

Where? There are no 442s in service now. Last ones ran early this month, IIRC.

Sorry, I'm a little out of date then. But AndyW33 gave other reasons why this is not so simple.

 

[3141]

When I commented on this phenomenon to a Manager of a large dealership, he said that it was driven by customers always wanting more from the new model. But maybe that was just his perception...

I read that in the 1920s the Chairman of General Motors said "The job of the publicity department is to keep the customer reasonably dissatisfied with the product", so that instead of being happy with your car which does everything you need, you look at information about the latest version, which is a bit bigger or has various new features, and you tell yourself you really must trade in the one you've got in order to buy the new model.

Does that have a connection with railways? I'm happy that a class 159 gets me to my destination on time, but in the new SW franchise they'll get plug sockets, wi fi, there'll be a new app, and the "customer experience" is going to be improved - though not by much, actually, if there are no extra trains and the passengers who have to stand now are joined by even more passengers in the future.

 

[AndyW33]

Sorry, I'm a little out of date then. But AndyW33 gave other reasons why this is not so simple.

What I gave reasons for was why the suggestion that the 455 retraction programme should stop in favour of doing the 442s instead might not work.

I don't see any reason at all why the 442s can't be retractioned between now and the end of 2018, which I understand is the plan, never mind what happens to the 455s. I'm sure Angel Trains will already have designs drawn up and costed, First-MTR won't be paying for it except indirectly through leasing charges.

 

[The Ham]

They're leaving the franchise. The number of new units quoted would be larger if they stayed. Anyway it would take more than a loo to make them suitable for main line running.

The number of new trains that First can claim surely must only be new trains that they have ordered, especially as some of the 707's should be in traffic by the time the franchise changes over.

The 30 x 707's plus the 90 new (First) trains would give you a total of 120 units, however if we assume that the 90 new trains are formed of 60 x 10 and 30 x 5 that would be the equivalent of 150 units with 5 coaches. That compares with 157 units with 4 or 5 coaches (excluding the 444's and 450's) which would be what the franchise will have as of the end of 2017. By having two fleets rather than three (including the 456's with the logistical headache that they could cause when trying to run 10 coach trains) there is probably some savings to be made in the total number of units required.

However with the 422's coming back they could allow 450's to supplement the services run by the older stock (i.e. Ascot - Guildford services) to make up some of the shortfall.

With the 707's being capable of 100mph running, if we assume the new trains are as well, then that could be where a lot of the time savings in journey times for the metro services are going to be found (it could also reduce the number of units required to run the same level of service).

I could be wrong but I think that there is a chance that the 707's are going to stay and it's the older units that are the ones moving on. From the above it certainly implies that to me rather than the 707's being the ones being moved on.

 

[fireincairo]

From the view that they have only just been ordered.. I don't see the 707's disappearing. Surely DFT would have taken this into account with the bids, maybe First/MTR put their bets on these 90 new vehicles also being Desiro City variants but with the toilets they should have always had, and sending off the current 707s delivered to be retrofitted with toilets etc?