New trains for East Midlands Franchise

Discussion in 'Traction & Rolling Stock' started by supervc-10, 10 Apr 2019.

  1. tbtc

    tbtc Veteran Member

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    I'm not a particular fanboy of any manufacturer over another, and I appreciate there's a need for some competition in the industry but I am a fan of ordering one massive (similar if not identical) fleet for the GWML/ MML/ ECML/ TPE so that there's a production line churning out lots of compatible trains, which will make it much easier to increase the size of any of the fleets.

    I'd rather have one big *good* fleet of something like 802s than trying to build a *perfect* fleet of bespoke trains for the MML. For example, things would have been a lot simpler on TPE if they'd ordered fiftysomething Turbostars.

    And, if demand doesn't warrant nine coach 802s then we can always send some of the coaches to the ECML/GWML franchises, where they'll be snapped up to extend their five car trains. I'm sure that won't be a problem though!
     
  2. irish_rail

    irish_rail Member

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    How many seats does a 7 car 222 have? I'd bet money it's about the same as a 5 car 802 making 9 car 802s on every service all day long seem unlikely.....
     
  3. 43055

    43055 Member

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    7 car - 236 standard, 106 first
    5 car - 190 standard, 50 first
    4 car - 148 standard, 33 first

    So according to Wikipedia a 5 car 800 has 45 first and 270 standard. So not much different but on peak hour runs the 3 coaches of first are regularly full for a 7 car so if you are suggesting replacing a 7 car train with a 5 car train then that is not going to happen. The Sheffield service is that busy that there is a 9 car 222 circuit in the day on weekdays between the peaks.
     
  4. Jozhua

    Jozhua Member

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    The 222's are quite high density in standard class, however as it is there is a lot of first class seating.

    7 car 222 has 106 first and 236 standard class seats, adding to 342 seats.
    5 car 800 has 45 first and 270 standard class seats, adding to 315 seats.
    9 car 800 has 101 first and 526 standard class seats, adding to 627 seats.

    So it appears something like a 7 car 80X would be ideal, however who knows if the right ratio of power cars, etc can be made with such a configuration. The main issue at the moment is the 4/5 car 222's which prove themselves to have very inadequate capacity much of the time.

    Quick mapkin maths gives a 7 car 80X something in the range of 490 seats, which would be an ideal upgrade in capacity. Considering however, passenger numbers seem to be growing at a healthy rate and a lifespan of at least 20 years on the main routes, a 9-car doesn't seem too ridiculous.
     
  5. Kettledrum

    Kettledrum Member

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    Please don't let us fall into the trap of thinking we just have to make the seat numbers the same, and that's OK. It's not.

    - Some MML services in the peaks have high numbers of passengers standing.
    - Many MML passengers need space for luggage
    Because of the above two points, it's important that the seats are not too crammed in that there is no room left for any passengers requiring to stand in peak periods - or their luggage.
    ...and that's before you take into account that the class 222 units often run doubled up in the peak periods - and they're still full at the London end of the route.
     
  6. londonmidland

    londonmidland Member

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    Why are people using current passenger loadings to determine how many coaches they think EMR should have, or perhaps saying it’s *too* many carriages?

    We all know passenger usage increases each year and we’ll end up with another TPE/XC situation if we don’t replace the current services with more carriages.

    Better to future-proof the service and trains than to think short term, where it will then be too late to do anything about it.
     
  7. HSTEd

    HSTEd Established Member

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    The situation is rather different to the TPE/XC situatino though.

    800 series trains are likely to be in production for quite a bit longer, it is not a single build of bespoke classes like the 185/220/221/222.

    Ordering more vehicles will likely be possible for quite some time.
     
  8. ag51ruk

    ag51ruk Member

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    Perhaps - but unless Cross Country order some, I don't see where the orders are coming from after any for the MML
     
  9. cnjb8

    cnjb8 Member

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    Well you can use demand now to determine demand for the future
     
  10. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

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    Indeed, if you take a growth rate of 2.5% per year by 2033 you get to 41% more passengers than currently.

    Now there maybe an impact on passenger numbers following HS2, however this needs to be seen in the light of potential passenger numbers.

    If we start with a base year of today with a figure of 100 passengers then by 2033 then this will have reached 141, even if HS2 halves this then it'll be 70. That's not so much below today's flows.

    However if growth is 3% per year then it reaches 162, so a 50% fall would be 80.

    Infect it would only need to be 5% growth per year to get back to 100 with a 50% fall.
     
  11. InTheEastMids

    InTheEastMids Member

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    I know I'm being pedantic here, but 'forecast' or 'estimate' are better verbs to use, as I think a lot of people are falling into the trap of these growth figures being somehow more certain than they actually are.

    With or without HS2, I find these linear predictions of ever-increasing demand to be a bit troubling. Perhaps that's because I worked for a company that went on a multi-billion € investment splurge because of forecasts like these, and it went badly wrong.

    In terms of the topic at hand, of course there is a significant risk of over-provision in the EMR procurement. I don't understand why some people here are getting quite worked up about it? Surely it's better than the opposite risk of under-provision, which probably has the same people moaning about over-crowding on TPE and XC? If the folk at Abellio or DfT that are forecasting demand and therefore how many trains to buy had the foresight that some seem to demand of them, then they wouldn't be doing these jobs as they'd be too busy collecting their winnings from the 3.30 at Kempton Park.

    So what's needed is flexibility for *when* demand differs from forecast. The railway really seems to struggle with this, for political, commercial and technical reasons, but any shorter units are procured, then make sure the option to extend is there.
     
  12. samuelmorris

    samuelmorris Established Member

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    I think it may be bold to assume that the benefits from HS2 phase 2 will arrive as early as 2033. Given the doom-mongering, continuous political uncertainty and so on before work even begins, it's entirely possible it'll be more like 2037-2038, assuming it happens at all.
     
  13. Prestige15

    Prestige15 Member

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    According to RAIL issue 883 that nine class 156 will come from Greater Anglia to replace the 153 and at least five class 170 will come from Scotrail (170416-420), It has also says Southern's 170 could be transfured to EMR should a soution for diesels running into London Bridge is found.
     
  14. ExRes

    ExRes Established Member

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    Sorry to be dense but what exactly does "... should a solution for diesels running into London Bridge is found" mean?
     
  15. LNW-GW Joint

    LNW-GW Joint Veteran Member

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    Derby hasn't built an inter-city train (125mph+) since the HST.
    IC225 (Mk4/91), Eurostar (373), Class 180 and the Pendolino came from GEC/Alstom.
    Voyagers/Meridians were from Bombardier Belgium, before they acquired Derby.
    Eurostar class 374 is from Siemens.
    IEP and its derivatives came from Hitachi.

    Meanwhile, Derby has produced large numbers of commuter and regional trains, some for export.
    Despite that, most major components of these trains come from abroad.
    The last major DMU orders went to CAF (Spain).
     
  16. Nym

    Nym Established Member

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    With black and slightly darker black accents?

    But why? The quality for passengers is a significant reduction on the HSTs and 22x series in Standard and 1st...
     
  17. swt_passenger

    swt_passenger Veteran Member

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    A few posters seem to think they can provide a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist by transferring SN’s 171s elsewhere, replacing them with some sort of battery bi-mode lashup that doesn’t actually exist yet... I wonder if RAIL have been reading too many speculative threads. o_O

    I don’t think SN are aware of this...
     
    Last edited: 21 Jul 2019
  18. Prestige15

    Prestige15 Member

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    I have no idea, Just posting what RAIL have said. Perhaps FLEX could be a solution for them but not even one ihas even started mainline testing let along in service.
     
  19. squizzler

    squizzler Member

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    We will see what future announcements bring, but I suspect we are not looking simply at an 802 with a bit more grunt.
    My money would be on the performance primarily being achieved by lighter weight (full adoption of Hitachi's inside frame bogies already being 'trialled' in some 80x coaches, this being facilitated by those shorter, hence lighter coaches) and improved aerodynamics (plug doors, better faired roof). There might be a little more power, but not as much more as some seem to think necessary. I expect it to be a very different looking animal, even if the DNA is shared with the 802.

    It also must be said that yet another AT300 order will further amortise the cost of the IEP programme, which I presume now looks like not such bad value for money after all.
     
    Last edited: 21 Jul 2019
  20. The Ham

    The Ham Established Member

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    I would suggest that given that there's enough current demand for the longer units that the risk is associated with something which is due to happen in 14 years time.

    It's also worth noting that by having longer trains there's plenty of opportunity to look at discounted tickets to fill the services (either now or after the opening of HS2). As others have pointed out there's not all that many places which would benefit significantly from HS2 in terms of journey time, so even a 50% drop could be fairly optimistic.

    Of course there's always the opportunity to add a stop or two to services (i.e. Bedford) to improve passenger numbers further.
     
  21. edwin_m

    edwin_m Veteran Member

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    Why are people raising HS2 in this context? Rolling stock leasing will only be for the length of the franchise, which ends several years before HS2 affects the MML.

    The ScotRail HSTs will be near life expiry when the MML franchise ends, and the Pendolinos and any remaining 22x units will be due for replacement about the time HS2 phase 2 comes in. So there should be opportunities for the leasing company to offer any surplus sets elsewhere after that.
     
  22. grumpyoldman01

    grumpyoldman01 Member

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    Depends what's meant by built.

    Many Mk4 bodyshells were manufactured at Litchurch Lane, and Channel Tunnel Nightstock bogies were assembled on Pride Park
     
  23. Goldfish62

    Goldfish62 Established Member

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    Who built a train to me means who the lead contractor was.
     
  24. grumpyoldman01

    grumpyoldman01 Member

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    I've made quite a few journeys in the Derby - Leicester corridor since the beginning of this year; times have varied.

    With regard to MML loadings, particularly north of Leicester, whilst I have always been able to find a seat easily southbound with one exception (on one which started from Derby at about 07.30 and was formed of an ex Grand Central HST), all of the trains on which I've travelled have been well loaded and have usually been formed of 7-car 222s; however, on at least two occasions I've been waiting for the 16.05 northbound service at Leicester on a Friday afternoon when there has been an announcement on the station's PA warning passengers waiting for the 16.02 southbound service (I think a 5-car 222) that there were already people standing on the train. On each occasion that I have travelled on the aforementioned 16.05 northbound service (usually a 7-car 222), there have been significant numbers joining at Leicester and standing north of the city and as far as Derby has been observed on a number of journeys.

    The majority of journeys I've made have been on Fridays, and I appreciate that this is often a busier day than other weekdays; however, a couple of months ago some friends made enquiries about travelling from Derby to London on a Saturday morning, and the first train on which they were told there were free seats was after 12.00!

    So based on my experiences and observations over the last 7 months, it is sensible to procure a fleet with more seats that are presently provided.

    Regarding future abstraction of traffic by HS2, I believe assumptions made regarding transfers from MML services are over optimistic with regard to Derby and Nottingham; Toton is a difficult place to get to by road, tram from Nottingham will be slow, and if a "shuttle" is used for a transfer between Derby/Nottingham and the HS2 hub, overall journey time savings to/from London will be small. Toton will be a large station, and 10 minutes for interchange is reasonable, and to this must be added, say, 13-15 minutes for the shuttle journey; this means that - on a fast Sheffield - passengers joining at Derby would already be approaching Wigston before they'd left Toton, and from there to St Pancras isn't much longer than the projected journey time between Toton and Euston.

    So whilst the opening of HS2 will be after the Abellio franchise period will end, the bi-modes will only be at about half-life if it opens in the late 2030s, and I believe that a fear that too many seats might be provided now for future demand is unfounded.
     
  25. supervc-10

    supervc-10 Member

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    Let's not also forget that, given the 'success' (or lack of) of recent British infrastructure projects with regards to their timings and costings (cough, Crossrail, cough), the pessimist in me thinks that these bi-modes will probably be approaching retirement age by the time HS2 comes along! :lol::lol:
     
  26. grumpyoldman01

    grumpyoldman01 Member

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    Roger Ford is predicting Hitachi for MML bi-modes in August's Informed Sources e-Preview
     
  27. gingertom

    gingertom Member

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    is he predicting also the number of cars and power packs?
     
  28. grumpyoldman01

    grumpyoldman01 Member

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    No; actual quote is:

    "Meanwhile, look for Hitachi to be selected as the suppliers for Abellio's replacement rolling stock for the East Midlands franchise."
     
  29. ohgoditsjames

    ohgoditsjames Member

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    Are we meant to find out more today?
     
  30. K13R0N

    K13R0N Member

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    Depending on what happens with the regional fleet, what can run into Lincoln Central? Class 170s apparently cannot because of the gauge change during the re-modelling in 2007/8. Will 156/158s be kept on and refurbed for the LEI/NOT-GMB, DON-PBO and NNG-LCN services?
     

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