SouthEastern franchise direct award through to 1 April 2020 (& franchise competition terminated)

[Mikey C]

A lot of the stations are pretty small, and fairly basic too with exits which are literally just an opening gate through the fence. Not sure how you'd install proper ticket barriers there

 

[47421]

My view is that the winning bidder will be lucky to make a pound note out of it. The steady switch away from 5-days-a-week commuting is biting all the London Commuting TOCs.

Recent South East area Franchise Agreements include a formula to share revenue risk based on Central London Employment stats, presumably the idea being that taxpayer via DfT and the Franchisee should not take all the risk/benefit of changes to employment levels, while franchisee still exposed to reduction in usage cus of poor service etc.

GA and South Western have complained that the formula is not working as expected, see eg notes to GAs most recently published accounts. Recent experience seems to show that continuing increases in the Central London Employment stats have not resulted in similar increases in commuting levels. No one really knows why - could be that the CLE stats are wrong or at least dont properly measure the type of jobs that people commute medium/long distance to, or could be that shift to working from home etc has resulted in reduction in season tic purchases indicating a lower level of commuting where actually people have just stopped buying so many season tics. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the new Franchise Agreement - both Abellio and First been burnt recently, and Govia not exposed to CLE stats under Thameslink concession.

 

[700007]

I live in Abbey Wood and a few weeks ago I had to go and receive a suitcase from my parents containing some more stuff. I used the wide gate to get out since it’s easier and then as I was going through some guy just walked passed me as I was going through the barrier making no effort to hide or whatever and the staff (TfL and not Southeastern there to clarify although I think that they might be ex-Southeastern based on things I’ve overheard when there have been problems) who saw it did absolutely nothing even though they clearly saw it. When the staff don’t enforce the stuff then it’s natural that people will evade fares - and that’s at a station that is at a station that is totally barriered and should be relatively safe from fare evasion if they enforced their own rules.

Generally TfL Rail staff don't stop you, however you will be reported to BTP using an internal app that all staff are equipped with. A lot of revenue blocks do take place at the hot-spot stations.

 

[Mikey C]

Masses of new houses being built along the Thames, and I doubt they'll be filled with professional/technical types who can work from home one or two days a week

Indeed aren't the people who now only come in 3/4 days a week mainly the commuters who travel long distances in, where the journey takes hours out of the day, rather than those who can be at their desk in 30-45 minutes? I'd be surprised if the inner SE London routes don't show continuing growth for the next few years, whereas with the longer journeys from Kent the numbers might contract or stay steady?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So who might be on a stellar list of bidders?

You can forget everybody except those on the SE short list:
- Abellio/EJR/Mitsui
- Govia (Go Ahead/Keolis)
- Stagecoach/Alstom
Note: Trenitalia was also on the short list but later withdrew.

 

[urpert]

You can forget everybody except those on the SE short list:
- Abellio/EJR/Mitsui
- Govia (Go Ahead/Keolis)
- Stagecoach/Alstom
- Trenitalia

And Trenitalia pulled out ages ago.

 

[HH]

Recent South East area Franchise Agreements include a formula to share revenue risk based on Central London Employment stats, presumably the idea being that taxpayer via DfT and the Franchisee should not take all the risk/benefit of changes to employment levels, while franchisee still exposed to reduction in usage cus of poor service etc.

GA and South Western have complained that the formula is not working as expected, see eg notes to GAs most recently published accounts. Recent experience seems to show that continuing increases in the Central London Employment stats have not resulted in similar increases in commuting levels. No one really knows why - could be that the CLE stats are wrong or at least dont properly measure the type of jobs that people commute medium/long distance to, or could be that shift to working from home etc has resulted in reduction in season tic purchases indicating a lower level of commuting where actually people have just stopped buying so many season tics. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the new Franchise Agreement - both Abellio and First been burnt recently, and Govia not exposed to CLE stats under Thameslink concession.

There is evidence (I think TfL have it) that fewer people in London are commuting 5 days a week. However, it is not something new (been happening for at least 10 years). While it might possibly have accelerated, it's not as though TOCs didn't already know it was happening. Why didn't they challenge the formula during bidding? If it's sheer incompetence, should the government be asked to cough up?

 

[Chris125]

My view is that the winning bidder will be lucky to make a pound note out of it. The steady switch away from 5-days-a-week commuting is biting all the London Commuting TOCs.

Perhaps but IIRC Southeastern haven't suffered as bad as some, perhaps benefiting from relative stability since the London Bridge disruption - passenger/km grew by 3.6% in Q2 for example.

 

[HH]

Perhaps but IIRC Southeastern haven't suffered as bad as some, perhaps benefiting from relative stability since the London Bridge disruption - passenger/km grew by 3.6% in Q2 for example.

It has just about recovered to where it was pre-London Bridge works. IMO that's not such a great position.

 

[bionic]

I heard today on very good authority that Govia are going to keep the franchise.

 

[HH]

I heard today on very good authority that Govia are going to keep the franchise.

I suggest that you downgrade "very good" to "finger in the wind" because as yet no recommendation has been made. The bids are still being risk adjusted.

 

[Metal_gee_man]

A lot of the stations are pretty small, and fairly basic too with exits which are literally just an opening gate through the fence. Not sure how you'd install proper ticket barriers there

I agree, there are problem stations on some of these routes, but Shortlands for example or Beckenham Junction are very busy stations with ridership into the millions and yet there are no barriers, no visible staff beyond 7pm and huge populations who use and abuse it!
The only way the revenue situation would be resolved is to use as many BTP officers as possible to enforce ticket checks and criminalise them, they'd soon get the message that it isn't on and isn't free
But a guard sitting in a cab not checking tickets later at night (avoiding questions and confrontations) isn't helping, as much as stations with barriers not having them closed to deter the chancers rather than the double jumping scrots that will threaten harm if you stop them

 

[bionic]

I suggest that you downgrade "very good" to "finger in the wind" because as yet no recommendation has been made. The bids are still being risk adjusted.

Guys, the winner will be decided soon. I know who it's likely to be

I take it your information contradicts mine then?

 

[bionic]

a guard sitting in a cab not checking tickets later at night (avoiding questions and confrontations) isn't helping,

SE metro routes are all DOO. There are no guards.

 

[HH]

I take it your information contradicts mine then?

I know who is in prime position, but nothing is quite certain at this point.

There is a 3-horse race between a donkey, an ass and a horse with one leg. I would say that of the three bidders, one clearly didn't want to win, one was ambivalent about winning and the one that desperately wanted to win is completely incompetent. Not a great choice.

We really need the current review to sort out the mess in which the franchising process currently finds itself mired.

 

[Metal_gee_man]

one clearly didn't want to win

ABELLIO

one was ambivalent about winning

STAGECOACH

one that desperately wanted to win is completely incompetent

GOVIA

 

[Busaholic]

I agree, there are problem stations on some of these routes, but Shortlands for example or Beckenham Junction are very busy stations with ridership into the millions and yet there are no barriers, no visible staff beyond 7pm and huge populations who use and abuse it!
The only way the revenue situation would be resolved is to use as many BTP officers as possible to enforce ticket checks and criminalise them, they'd soon get the message that it isn't on and isn't free
But a guard sitting in a cab not checking tickets later at night (avoiding questions and confrontations) isn't helping, as much as stations with barriers not having them closed to deter the chancers rather than the double jumping scrots that will threaten harm if you stop them

Presumably a good proportion of these non ticket holders are returning home, at the time you are talking about. I assume most of these people originated at a Central London station, the majority at Victoria. (a)How did they get on to the platform at Victoria and (B) on their journey to central London earlier (which presumably most made) how did they exit the platform at Victoria? Can't say I've ever noticed large scale open barriers for incoming trains on the SE or Central sides.

 

[Metal_gee_man]

It is hit and miss, I found the SE ticket barrier staff pick and choose, when it was cold a couple of days ago at Victoria the barriers were open and the poor girl was huddled up in her coat, scarf and hat in the platform cabin! I've seen people double jump through and leap the barriers, the BTP are never in the right place at the right time

 

[HH]

ABELLIO
STAGECOACH
GOVIA

One out of three ain't bad.

 

[HH]

It is hit and miss, I found the SE ticket barrier staff pick and choose, when it was cold a couple of days ago at Victoria the barriers were open and the poor girl was huddled up in her coat, scarf and hat in the platform cabin! I've seen people double jump through and leap the barriers, the BTP are never in the right place at the right time

Let me tell you one issue that staff (and BTP) face. I recall setting up a big blockade, with numerous BTP in attendance at a known trouble spot. What happened was that the fare dodgers started running across the tracks. BTP abandoned the exercise on the basis that they couldn't deliberately endanger life.

Staff cannot be expected to deal with people who are as determined to avoid a fare as that.

 

[theageofthetra]

Let me tell you one issue that staff (and BTP) face. I recall setting up a big blockade, with numerous BTP in attendance at a known trouble spot. What happened was that the fare dodgers started running across the tracks. BTP abandoned the exercise on the basis that they couldn't deliberately endanger life.

Staff cannot be expected to deal with people who are as determined to avoid a fare as that.

Yes have witnessed that first hand.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

There is a 3-horse race between a donkey, an ass and a horse with one leg. I would say that of the three bidders, one clearly didn't want to win, one was ambivalent about winning and the one that desperately wanted to win is completely incompetent. Not a great choice.

Uh???? Why would you go to all the expense of putting in a bid if you don't want to win it?

 

[HH]

Uh???? Why would you go to all the expense of putting in a bid if you don't want to win it?

Basically, bidders change their minds; they lose appetite for the franchise for one reason or another. I've been in these situations, so I know it happens. They don't want to withdraw because they feel that it would prejudice future bid opportunities.

 

[Shug]

SE have been given a 12 week extension so new franchise start date is now 23rd June

 

[Metal_gee_man]

SE have been given a 12 week extension so new franchise start date is now 23rd June

Omg this is becoming a joke! I've got an interview with SE (Govia) for a job that might never happen in the next 6 months now

 

[Metal_gee_man]

I understand that as part of the new franchise agreement ETCS is a requirement by 2022, so new signalling and either upgraded trains or new trains to handle it

 

[jnjkerbin]

Is that the 4th or 5th time it's been delayed?

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

SE have been given a 12 week extension so new franchise start date is now 23rd June

Do you have any links to where this information is?

 

[pdeaves]

Omg this is becoming a joke! I've got an interview with SE (Govia) for a job that might never happen in the next 6 months now

Recruitment will still carry on. In fact, if there is a franchise extension that gives you longer to settle in!

 

[Shug]

Do you have any links to where this information is?

Announced internally