Northern’s Route With Highest % Load Factor Per Seat

[Llandudno]

As has been well documented on various forum threads, the Northern rail network is heavily subsidised. However, which route on the Northern network has the highest percentage of seats occupied throughout the operating week?

The criteria being:

Number of seats occupied as a percentage of the seats available on any given Northern route.

I think that the hourly semi-fast Leeds - Nottingham service must be a contender as every time I seem to travel on it even at off peak times and during the evening it seems very busy and standing loads are not uncommon.

Last night I caught the 2104 from Leeds, full and standing, emptied out a bit at Barnsley then full and standing departing Sheffield towards Nottingham. I would imagine that it’s return working 2318 Ex Nottingham would have been equally busy.

I guess the loading problem is difficult to fix as virtually all trains are operated by 2 Car Class 195 trains owing to platform constraints at Leeds?

Are there any other Northern routes that seem to have as few spare seats available throughout the operating week?

 

[Horizon22]

Probably not something you'd be able to get publicly accessible data on - information like ticket sales is via LENNON but this doesn't give granular enough data on what services although could give a good proxy. So ultimately this would be anecdotal based on people's different experiences of crowding levels.

 

[pemma]

I think the Stoke to Manchester and Chester to Manchester via Altrincham lines could be contenders. These were routes which were supposed to get an enhanced frequency due to high usage (even at off-peak times) but didn't. Average seat occupancy on Chester to Manchester on weekdays is lower at the moment due to no peak time extras and the trains that would run the peak time extras being used to strengthen services for most of the day. But then many routes are being affected by things not having returned to the pre-COVID arrangement.

 

[Llandudno]

I think the Stoke to Manchester and Chester to Manchester via Altrincham lines could be contenders. These were routes which were supposed to get an enhanced frequency due to high usage (even at off-peak times) but didn't. Average seat occupancy on Chester to Manchester on weekdays is lower at the moment due to no peak time extras and the trains that would run the peak time extras being used to strengthen services for most of the day. But then many routes are being affected by things not having returned to the pre-COVID arrangement.

Aren’t all the Stoke to Manchester trains at least 3 cars in length with high density 3+2 seating?
Plus I doubt that the contra-peak workings, ie out of Manchester in the morning and into Manchester in the afternoon/evening are particularly busy?

The Chester - Manchester via Northwich services are busy, but many are operated by 4 coaches, some with the awful 3+2 seating which may reduce the seat occupied load factor?

 

[pemma]

Aren’t all the Stoke to Manchester trains at least 3 cars in length with high density 3+2 seating?

Yes but recently Northern have to implement an emergency arrangement to operate some 6 car trains on Saturdays due to 3 car sets leaving people behind.

Plus I doubt that the contra-peak workings, ie out of Manchester in the morning and into Manchester in the afternoon/evening are particularly busy?

A lot of people work or attend school in the Macclesfield area, so there's probably a counter-peak flow. There's also two rival bus services between Macclesfield and Congleton, so I'd be surprised if the railway doesn't get many passengers travelling between the two towns.

The Chester - Manchester via Northwich services are busy, but many are operated by 4 coaches, some with the awful 3+2 seating which may reduce the seat occupied load factor?

Like I mentioned already there's a temporary arrangement meaning 4 carriage services instead of the peak time extras. But even allowing for that only 50% of the weekday services between the morning and evening peaks are 4 carriages and in the evenings it's only 25%. These trains also had the number of seats reduced as part of accessibility modifications, so some of the services which are still only 2 carriages now have fewer seats than they used to have a few years back.

Last night I caught the 2104 from Leeds, full and standing

Just looked at the departures from Leeds and I think there may be a reason for this

20:48 Northern stopper to Sheffield
21:04 Northern semi-fast to Nottingham
21:11 XC service to Birmingham via Sheffield

So an hourly 2 car service to Wakefield, Sheffield & Chesterfield departs just before an hourly 4/5 car service. While if you want Meadowhall there's no point catching the earlier stopper, as the later semi-fast gets there at the same time.

 

[Some guy]

The Manchester to Barrow/Windermere services are busy all the time leaving Piccadilly. It’s a joke they only run 3 carriages for journeys that long

 

[Pinus contorta]

The platforms are going to be extended along the Barrow line at various locations. There was an announcement about it quite recently. Until that happens they can't run longer trains on the route from Manchester to Barrow very easily.

 

[trover]

The Manchester to Barrow/Windermere services are busy all the time leaving Piccadilly. It’s a joke they only run 3 carriages for journeys that long

Sometimes 2 cars 195 and plenty of cancellations of the last train The opp. direction is always busy as well esp. in morning peak. However it’s worth mentioning that they double up capacity by coupling two 3 cars 195 on Saturday night which is good, but whether they run as scheduled is another matter.

 

[Some guy]

Sometimes 2 cars 195 and plenty of cancellations of the last train The opp. direction is always busy as well esp. in morning peak. However it’s worth mentioning that they double up capacity by coupling two 3 cars 195 on Saturday night which is good, but whether they run as scheduled is another matter.

They only double the train up to get a set up to barrow depot and even then it’s most of the time locked out of use

 

[trover]

They only double the train up to get a set up to barrow depot and even then it’s most of the time locked out of use

Ah I’ve almost forgotten not to set expectation too high for this company… I seldom use this route on Saturdays so never know what actually happened.

 

[paddy1]

The Manchester to Barrow/Windermere services are busy all the time leaving Piccadilly. It’s a joke they only run 3 carriages for journeys that long

Oh dear. I was able to buy a Manchester to Windermere day trip in the GBR sale for 25 May for £0.95 each way (railcard discount included). Doesn't bode well. But should they really, and do they need to, be selling tickets that cheap if the trains are that busy?

 

[Some guy]

Oh dear. I was able to buy a Manchester to Windermere day trip in the GBR sale for 25 May for £0.95 each way (railcard discount included). Doesn't bode well. But should they really, and do they need to, be selling tickets that cheap if the trains are that busy?

Does it say northern only no your ticket. As you could get a TPE to oxenholme and change onto the Windermere service

 

[Broken70]

York - Blackpool North surely in the running. After Leeds it's often busy and by the time its West of Hebden Bridge standing loads are not uncommon right through to Blackpool.

 

[pemma]

The Manchester to Barrow/Windermere services are busy all the time leaving Piccadilly. It’s a joke they only run 3 carriages for journeys that long

They originate at the airport and have plenty of empty seats until Manchester. Although, I think they are better utilised from the airport now that they provide a fast service between the airport and Wigan, rather than one of many services between the airport and Bolton, as used to be the case.

Oh dear. I was able to buy a Manchester to Windermere day trip in the GBR sale for 25 May for £0.95 each way (railcard discount included). Doesn't bode well. But should they really, and do they need to, be selling tickets that cheap if the trains are that busy?

Does it say northern only no your ticket. As you could get a TPE to oxenholme and change onto the Windermere service

Demand for the service is very weather dependent. Lots of people holding Northern complimentary tickets save them for a warm day for a trip to the lakes. If you're booked on the first train after 9am up to Windermere then you might have difficulty getting a seat, on other services you may or may not have issues.

The GBR sale tickets are Advance fares so only valid on the booked train. From my experience I would strongly advise against trying to board the service at Oxenholme. Oxenholme provides an interchange with the Avanti services as well, as you've got less chance of getting a seat at Oxenholme than at Preston or Lancaster.

York - Blackpool North surely in the running. After Leeds it's often busy and by the time its West of Hebden Bridge standing loads are not uncommon right through to Blackpool.

I think this is where the original question needs a bit of clarity. North TransPennine services have high seat occupancy levels and while few passengers travel from Liverpool to Newcastle, there's a high chance of most of the seats being occupied between Liverpool and Leeds, even if the same person isn't sat in them the entire time. On some Northern services, such as the Buxton line, the morning northbound trains start fairly empty at Buxton and gradually get busier and busier until they get to Manchester, so the average seat occupancy level might be 50% even if someone boarding at Davenport might struggle to find a vacant seat.

 

[Llandudno]

They originate at the airport and have plenty of empty seats until Manchester. Although, I think they are better utilised from the airport now that they provide a fast service between the airport and Wigan, rather than one of many services between the airport and Bolton, as used to be the case.





Demand for the service is very weather dependent. Lots of people holding Northern complimentary tickets save them for a warm day for a trip to the lakes. If you're booked on the first train after 9am up to Windermere then you might have difficulty getting a seat, on other services you may or may not have issues.

The GBR sale tickets are Advance fares so only valid on the booked train. From my experience I would strongly advise against trying to board the service at Oxenholme. Oxenholme provides an interchange with the Avanti services as well, as you've got less chance of getting a seat at Oxenholme than at Preston or Lancaster.



I think this is where the original question needs a bit of clarity. North TransPennine services have high seat occupancy levels and while few passengers travel from Liverpool to Newcastle, there's a high chance of most of the seats being occupied between Liverpool and Leeds, even if the same person isn't sat in them the entire time. On some Northern services, such as the Buxton line, the morning northbound trains start fairly empty at Buxton and gradually get busier and busier until they get to Manchester, so the average seat occupancy level might be 50% even if someone boarding at Davenport might struggle to find a vacant seat.

Indeed, I was referring to the average load factor throughout the entire route
Clearly just because all seats are taken between say, Edge Hill and Liverpool Lime Street or Levenshulme and Manchester this doesn’t count in my original post.

Leeds - Sheffield - Nottingham appears to be limited, operationally to two carriages and the route serves three very large urban conurbations plus Wakefield, Barnsley and Chesterfield and the shopping and leisure destination, Meadowhall.

 

[paddy1]

Does it say northern only no your ticket. As you could get a TPE to oxenholme and change onto the Windermere service

It's Northern only and booked train only, but thank you for the suggestion. At only £0.95 each way, it's no great loss if the train turns up too busy and I give it a miss.

 

[ANorthernGuard]

Stoke To Manchester during weekends are not at times double sets (1 Carriage locked out on way back) which was unheard of apart from Xmas Markets and Hope Valley Line also gets a lot of 5/6 Cars now at weekends

 

[childwallblues]

York - Blackpool North surely in the running. After Leeds it's often busy and by the time its West of Hebden Bridge standing loads are not uncommon right through to Blackpool.

I was on the 1039 from Hebden Bridge to Blackpool North yesterday. Empty tables available when I boarded. Quite a number of passengers boarded at Burnley Manchester Road, Accrington and Blackburn but nobody standing to Preston.

 

[pemma]

Northern seem to have reduced the number of 4 car workings on the Mid-Cheshire line, despite not reintroducing the peak time extras.

 

[Starmill]

I think that the reduced number of seats in a 195 vs a 158 or 150 is a part cause of the issue here. Leeds to Sheffield or Nottingham via Barnsley services definitely would support more than two cars, and will do if platform 17 at Leeds is extended next year.

 

[ANorthernGuard]

Northern seem to have reduced the number of 4 car workings on the Mid-Cheshire line, despite not reintroducing the peak time extras.

There are a lot of 150s out of service with alternator issues also we have tried to make sure no 156's in multiple work that route due to a lot of delays caused by short platforms.

 

[Llandudno]

I think that the reduced number of seats in a 195 vs a 158 or 150 is a part cause of the issue here. Leeds to Sheffield or Nottingham via Barnsley services definitely would support more than two cars, and will do if platform 17 at Leeds is extended next year.

Didn’t realise that there was scope to extend platform 17 at Leeds, let’s hope it happens!

 

[Gricer99]

Looking at the cancellations throughout this afternoon, the next Manchester Airport to Blackpool that actually runs will be rammed

 

[Purple Orange]

An alternative way to look at this would be if you were to create a TOC based upon subsets of existing Northern routes, what would you pick in the name of deriving the greatest profit? How would three TOCs that operates purely centred on Manchester Piccadilly or Manchester Victoria or Leeds look?

 

[pemma]

Looking at the cancellations throughout this afternoon, the next Manchester Airport to Blackpool that actually runs will be rammed

RTT now showing the following actual departures from Manchester Oxford Road:
16:20 Blackpool North - 6 carriages (started at Piccadilly, instead of Manchester Airport)
16:35 Edinburgh - 5 carriages
16:39 Barrow-in-Furness - 3 carriages
18:03 Windermere - unknown formation
18:08 Blackpool North - 6 carriages (started at Oxford Road, instead of Manchester Airport)

I think the Windermere train might have left people behind.

The underlying problem apparently relates to a trespass incident.

 

[startingaparty]

Looking at the cancellations throughout this afternoon, the next Manchester Airport to Blackpool that actually runs will be rammed

I arrived at Manchester Piccadilly for the 17:02 service to BPN which was cancelled so waited for the next one half an hour later... cancelled. They then cancelled every train until 7pm. Platform 14 was absolutely rammed, the cattle herders on Platform 14 barked at everyone that they should board the EMR service to Liverpool Lime Street and alight at Manchester Oxford Road for onward connections to BPN. Ridiculous idea, as now several trains worth of commuters (and the people trying to get to Liverpool and Glasgow, via Preston) were trying to board a 3-car service. We arrived at Oxford Road and there wasn't a train for another 30 minutes, I think they turned a train destined for the Airport into a service to Blackpool North in the end.

It was an all around farce and I've not seen scenes like it since the Great Timetable Event of yesteryear.

 

[pemma]

I arrived at Manchester Piccadilly for the 17:02 service to BPN which was cancelled so waited for the next one half an hour later... cancelled. They then cancelled every train until 7pm. Platform 14 was absolutely rammed, the cattle herders on Platform 14 barked at everyone that they should board the EMR service to Liverpool Lime Street and alight at Manchester Oxford Road for onward connections to BPN. Ridiculous idea, as now several trains worth of commuters (and the people trying to get to Liverpool) were trying to board a 3-car service. We arrived at Oxford Road and there wasn't a train for another 30 minutes, I think they turned a train destined for the Airport into a service to Blackpool North in the end.

Sounds like you're referring to the 17:24 Piccadilly to Lime Street stopper (3 carriages).

As posted above a service left Manchester Oxford Road for Blackpool at 18:08.

So before that there was also a 17:40 Piccadilly to Lime Street (4 carriages) and a 17:54 Piccadilly to Windermere. The delayed 17:52 Piccadilly to Holyhead (3 carriages), would have got to Oxford Road a minute after the Blackpool train left.

 

[Gricer99]

Not much use for people trying to get up from the airport or stations South of Piccadilly.
Same thing happened yesterday evening, and they cancelled the Monday morning prime commuter train.
As far as the cause, the Heald Green train announcement boards were only claiming driver/crew shortage for all cancellations.

 

[JamesP]

There are a lot of 150s out of service with alternator issues also we have tried to make sure no 156's in multiple work that route due to a lot of delays caused by short platforms.

I had a pair of 156s when I used the route a few weeks back and we ended up over 15m late into Picc purely from delays because it was too long to get on most of the platforms.

 

[pemma]

I had a pair of 156s when I used the route a few weeks back and we ended up over 15m late into Picc purely from delays because it was too long to get on most of the platforms.

I don't understand why there's so much variation in to how much issue a pair of 156s cause or don't cause. Does it relate to the weather conditions affecting how accurately a driver can stop? I mentioned in another thread, a few weeks back, that one guard announced he was only opening the middle doors at Mobberley on a Chester bound service that was operated by a pair of 156s. But when the train actually stopped he released the doors as normal, rather than manually releasing one or two sets.

I suppose one factor in the length of delay could be that one guard might check no-one wanting to alight missed the announcement and walk the length of the train, while another might think it's tough if passengers don't listen.

There is also quite a lot of padding in the timetables already. A Manchester bound train can be over 5 minutes late at Hale and can still get to Stockport early. But that does seem to depend what the signaller decides regarding if a slightly delayed Manchester train would get to Navigation Road at the same time as the Chester train.