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Northern Pacer Withdrawals - Info?

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cactustwirly

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Illegal or not, this is a ludicrous situation and Ken’s suggestion is a logical resolution for the majority of people, disabled or otherwise. Damning indictment of the rail industry, and government, if short forms and mass disruption result from all this.

Blame the RoSCos and the DfT, they've had 10 years to sort this
 
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bramling

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Blame the RoSCos and the DfT, they've had 10 years to sort this

Blaming anyone doesn’t help resolve the situation.

I can’t see there being mass cancellations or short forms. If there’s that much of a shortfall then they will have to keep the pacers running. There’s already going to have to be derogations elsewhere, the EMT HSTs for example, so a few more won’t hurt.

It’s one thing screwing weekend users, no one really cares about them, but a shambles involving peak commuter services is a different matter.

This assumes we don’t see a repeat of Crossrail of course, where everyone seemed to want to pretend everything was fine, and believe what they wanted to hear. I see the local TV news in the north-west is already carrying stories that Pacers won’t be gone by the end of the year, so clearly that narrative is emanating from somewhere.
 

Ken H

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Blaming anyone doesn’t help resolve the situation.

I can’t see there being mass cancellations or short forms. If there’s that much of a shortfall then they will have to keep the pacers running. There’s already going to have to be derogations elsewhere, the EMT HSTs for example, so a few more won’t hurt.

It’s one thing screwing weekend users, no one really cares about them, but a shambles involving peak commuter services is a different matter.
This is going to hit an area already sensitive over late Blackpool electrification, strikes and timetable introduction shambles. The fallout could be quite big.
 

Ken H

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Does this mean TOC income from weekend train services is only a very small percentage of their income?
nothing to do with income. its whether weekend users can make enough fuss with politicians and journos. If the service is rubbish, weekend users will do something else. Weekday commuters probably have less choice.
 

yorksrob

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Because that will be illegal as has been noted previously.

Whilst not desirable, I think if Northern are unable to get their house in order by the end of 2019 then short forming/cancellations short term are the only answer. Otherwise it'll be yet more can kicking. If 10 years notice isn't long enough then more drastic action is needed.

Blame the RoSCos and the DfT, they've had 10 years to sort this

Fundamentally, rail passengers couldn't care less who is to blame for the fiasco. If short forms become the norm, they will want it fixed quickly and woe betide any government that doesn't keep the trains running satisfactorily.
 

Mathew S

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nothing to do with income. its whether weekend users can make enough fuss with politicians and journos. If the service is rubbish, weekend users will do something else. Weekday commuters probably have less choice.
Speaking as one of said journos, not meeting accessibility requirements is a way, way, way bigger story than short formed services.
 

158756

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I can’t see many politicians wanting to block
legislation like this that could really impact their parties chances in government.

Northern Rail commuters make up a very small percentage of the electorate in the North, and no one elsewhere in the country will notice any shortage of trains. A Commons vote to overturn long-standing equalities legislation to get the government out of a hole and boost the profits of the hated privatised railway will generate terrible headlines in the national press. Are the opposition really going to vote for that?
 

Bikeman78

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Well the Pacers have to go before January 2020 one way or another!
Northern will have to run RRBs if necessary
What possible advantage would that have in practical terms? Will the bus have automatic announcements for all the stops and information displays? Will they have toilets? If not, what advantage do they offer over a Pacer? Will a thorough risk assessment be undertaken? Buses are slightly less safe than trains to travel in, not to mention the risk to pedestrians and cyclists. It's massively unlikely but imagine the PR disaster if someone got knocked down by a Pacer replacement bus.
 

superkev

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With the introduction of the 331s today with more to follow the demise of the 321s and 322s nears perhaps this thread should be renamed to include these.
K
 

Bikeman78

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With the introduction of the 331s today with more to follow the demise of the 321s and 322s nears perhaps this thread should be renamed to include these.
K
Ironically they are already PRM compliant. Perhaps they'll go to Liverpool St to replace eight of the unmodified bins down there. Every little helps.
 

Meerkat

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I really can’t imagine MPs allowing short forms and cancellations.
It would just be so utterly illogical to make everyone suffer because a small number haven’t had the improvements they expect (remember nothing is being reduced, just delayed improvement).
It would also be really bad PR for the disability groups who rely on MPs and donations.
Create a fuss, try to get someone fined in court maybe, but make everyone suffer.....just don’t see it (though they might well let the media run with that idea before being reasonable)
 

yorksrob

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The only way I can see this circle being squared, would be for no derogation to be granted from the requirement for all trains to be accessible, but for a derogation to be applied against the need for the whole train to be compliant. That way, Government can declare that "all trains are accessible", but Northern would still be able to shove a 142/153 on the back to alleviate crowding.

It's hard to see how anyone would challenge such a compromise, as they would be disadvantaging their own client group.
 

Bikeman78

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The only way I can see this circle being squared, would be for no derogation to be granted from the requirement for all trains to be accessible, but for a derogation to be applied against the need for the whole train to be compliant. That way, Government can declare that "all trains are accessible", but Northern would still be able to shove a 142/153 on the back to alleviate crowding.

It's hard to see how anyone would challenge such a compromise, as they would be disadvantaging their own client group.
Exactly. Even with compliant units, someone in a wheelchair wishing to use the toilet will have to get on in the correct coach. You might get a wheelchair down the aisle of a 700 but you definitely wouldn't on anything with 3+2 seats. So not every coach is suitable for every type of disability. Also they would probably need assistance onto the train. What's the difference between that and assisting someone else onto the correct part of a 150+142 formation?
 

bramling

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Does this mean TOC income from weekend train services is only a very small percentage of their income?

No I was intending it as simply a statement of what appears to be the reality of the political situation.

Weekend users simply don’t make a fuss, and from an economic point of view the Smith family from Arlesey being disrupted on their Saturday day-trip to Oxford Street simply isn’t as high up the priority tree as Mr Brennan-Brown from Hitchin on his daily commute to work in London. (I’m sure someone could come up with a similar example in the north!). As for shift workers, no one probably even realises they exist...
 

bramling

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The only way I can see this circle being squared, would be for no derogation to be granted from the requirement for all trains to be accessible, but for a derogation to be applied against the need for the whole train to be compliant. That way, Government can declare that "all trains are accessible", but Northern would still be able to shove a 142/153 on the back to alleviate crowding.

It's hard to see how anyone would challenge such a compromise, as they would be disadvantaging their own client group.

I still think that would be chaotic. There’s no way Northern will manage to achieve that. What they could do is claim that they will *endeavour* to do it as far as possible. We all know what that would mean in reality, but it would show intent at least.
 

bramling

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Speaking as one of said journos, not meeting accessibility requirements is a way, way, way bigger story than short formed services.

How long would it be before there’s a photo of lines of stored Pacers along with some stories about people being left behind and unable to get to an exam, important medical appointment, job interview or whatever. Especially as it will coincide with the usual bitching about annual season ticket price rises.

Then add in a few companies making noise that their staff couldn’t get to work on time.

We will of course wait to see if it will be only Northern that will be affected. There’s the EMT HST situation, no way in a million years they’re going to be compliant, not to mention TFW and Greater Anglia are two to watch too. Two of these certainly will involve London commuters.
 
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Mathew S

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How long would it be before there’s a photo of lines of stored Pacers along with some stories about people being left behind and unable to get to an exam, important medical improvement, job interview or whatever. Especially as it will coincide with the usual bitching about annual season ticket price rises.

Then add in a few companies making noise that their staff couldn’t get to work on time.

We will of course wait to see if it will be only Northern that will be affected. There’s the EMT HST situation, no way in a million years they’re going to be compliant, not to mention TFW and Greater Anglia are two to watch too. Two of these certainly will involve London commuters.
I can sell derogations for Pacers (or EMT HSTs) to a news editor as profiteering private train companies actively discriminating against disabled people. Not to mention you can bet there'll be loads of disability rights groups pushing that angle til they're blue in the face. It's also a political story so, unlike public transport, it's what a news editor would see as "proper news."

By contrast, short formed, overcrowded trains aren't anything new. Yes, it'll be for a different reason, but it'll be the same narrative, "incompetent train companies can't get their act together." Rightly or wrongly, it would get treated as a public transport story which, in the eyes of the vast majority, makes it instantly more boring than watching paint dry.

The news business now is all about getting clicks, and disability discrimination by the DfT gets more clicks than overcrowding on trains any day of the week. Yes, overcrowding and expensive season tickets are good filler when it's a quiet day, but that's about all they're good for - they don't get big audiences because most people couldn't care less.
 

Bikeman78

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I can sell derogations for Pacers (or EMT HSTs) to a news editor as profiteering private train companies actively discriminating against disabled people. Not to mention you can bet there'll be loads of disability rights groups pushing that angle til they're blue in the face. It's also a political story so, unlike public transport, it's what a news editor would see as "proper news."

By contrast, short formed, overcrowded trains aren't anything new. Yes, it'll be for a different reason, but it'll be the same narrative, "incompetent train companies can't get their act together." Rightly or wrongly, it would get treated as a public transport story which, in the eyes of the vast majority, makes it instantly more boring than watching paint dry.

The news business now is all about getting clicks, and disability discrimination by the DfT gets more clicks than overcrowding on trains any day of the week. Yes, overcrowding and expensive season tickets are good filler when it's a quiet day, but that's about all they're good for - they don't get big audiences because most people couldn't care less.

I suggest you go to Liverpool St for the evening peak on January 2nd. Without a derogation, the chaos will be on a scale similar to Thameslink last year. There are something like 70 non compliant 321s. How on earth do they propose to replace them at a rate of nearly three per week? The first of the 720 hasn't even arrived at Ilford yet. The way it's going, I'm not convinced the 710s will be ready to replace the LO 317s either. So that will be a single 315 on every peak train instead of pairs on everything as it is now.
 

yorksrob

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I still think that would be chaotic. There’s no way Northern will manage to achieve that. What they could do is claim that they will *endeavour* to do it as far as possible. We all know what that would mean in reality, but it would show intent at least.

Well, they would need to impose some order on the random unit generator for sure. It might be do-able if they had enough compliant units.

Short forms and cancellations would be even more chaotic (as we know from the Western side).
 

Bantamzen

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Speaking as one of said journos, not meeting accessibility requirements is a way, way, way bigger story than short formed services.

Hmmm, without wanting to tell you your job, and not belittling the accessibility issues in any way, I'd say if there are major problems with short forms & cancellations in early 2020 this will become the number one issue for all passengers. You might want to set up a hot line with the likes of Andy Burnham...…

I think the real questions here are, if Pacers run after 31/12/19, and I'm certain they will, would this exclude any passengers from using the trains in the same way they did pre-legislation date? And would sticking to the letter of the law, thereby preventing pacers being used from 01/01/20 result in some passengers being unable to use the trains in the same way they did pre-legislation?
 

Xenophon PCDGS

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It appears to me that the matter of the hiatus at the manufacturing plant for those new trains that were supposed to replace the Northern franchise Class 142 Pacer fleet has suddenly been viewed with a "Nelson's blind eye" by many people.
 

Mitchell Hurd

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Yes I don't find Pacers to be as bad as people make out but If I'm honest, I'll be not happy for commuters if Pacers are still running into next year.

However, I'm sure they'd rather not wait on the platforms just because Pacers can't run into 2020!
 

Mathew S

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I suggest you go to Liverpool St for the evening peak on January 2nd. Without a derogation, the chaos will be on a scale similar to Thameslink last year. There are something like 70 non compliant 321s. How on earth do they propose to replace them at a rate of nearly three per week? The first of the 720 hasn't even arrived at Ilford yet. The way it's going, I'm not convinced the 710s will be ready to replace the LO 317s either. So that will be a single 315 on every peak train instead of pairs on everything as it is now.
And I'm sure if there is disruption on that kind of scale it will make the news, but it will get the obligatory '2.5 minutes in section 4' treatment rather than anything at the top; simply because even the most serious rail issues only affect a tiny percentage of the audience. And, at that point it's still just a transport story (though, I'll grant you, if it goes on for long enough it become more than that).

Hmmm, without wanting to tell you your job, and not belittling the accessibility issues in any way, I'd say if there are major problems with short forms & cancellations in early 2020 this will become the number one issue for all passengers. You might want to set up a hot line with the likes of Andy Burnham...…

I think the real questions here are, if Pacers run after 31/12/19, and I'm certain they will, would this exclude any passengers from using the trains in the same way they did pre-legislation date? And would sticking to the letter of the law, thereby preventing pacers being used from 01/01/20 result in some passengers being unable to use the trains in the same way they did pre-legislation?
But rail passengers aren't the audience. At the end of the day, there's no point doing news that the majority of your readers/viewers/listeners don't give a fig about. I can make a story about people with disabilities being unable to access the rail network 'front page news' (or whatever the equivalent is on the radio!) because it ticks all the boxes: policitcs, outrage, anger, feeling sorry for people, photogenic disabled children who can't use the train... etc. I simply can't do that with a story about overcrowded, short-formed, or cancelled trains simply because it is, to most people, irrelevant and boring. One gets clicks, one doesn't, and tis the one that gets the clicks that gets the coverage.

That is why I find it very, very hard to believe that there will be anything more than a very short, very limited derogation for Pacers in the new year. The government know they will get hammered in the press for it, while overcrowding etc. won't get anything like the same attention, even though it will affect more people.

Yes I don't find Pacers to be as bad as people make out but If I'm honest, I'll be not happy for commuters if Pacers are still running into next year.

However, I'm sure they'd rather not wait on the platforms just because Pacers can't run into 2020!

Agreed. Give me a Pacer over a 150 any day!
 

Bantamzen

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But rail passengers aren't the audience. At the end of the day, there's no point doing news that the majority of your readers/viewers/listeners don't give a fig about. I can make a story about people with disabilities being unable to access the rail network 'front page news' (or whatever the equivalent is on the radio!) because it ticks all the boxes: policitcs, outrage, anger, feeling sorry for people, photogenic disabled children who can't use the train... etc. I simply can't do that with a story about overcrowded, short-formed, or cancelled trains simply because it is, to most people, irrelevant and boring. One gets clicks, one doesn't, and tis the one that gets the clicks that gets the coverage.

That is why I find it very, very hard to believe that there will be anything more than a very short, very limited derogation for Pacers in the new year. The government know they will get hammered in the press for it, while overcrowding etc. won't get anything like the same attention, even though it will affect more people.

You know, sometimes it is best not to say what you are thinking, and frankly I would suggest this is one occasion. People are already disengaging with the media, and comments like the "don't give a fig" one really don't help your profession one jot!!!

As for what people care about, first, foremost and almost always they care about what affects them. Sure the occasional bad news story about some disadvantaged person who gets treated badly by the railways will have them tutting and occasionally commenting, but the reality that most won't actively pursue these kinds of issues. But stick them on a congested platform, listening to daily announcements about short forms & cancellations will have them looking for answers.

In terms of Pacers, I have absolutely no doubt they will see service well into 2020, no doubt that disability groups will take the matter to courts, no doubt that there will then be kneejerk reactions from the DfT & TOCs, lots of cancellations, and lots of stories on the main media outlets about the chaos as a result.
 

Chris217

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This thread is a touchy subject for all the wrong reasons.
Mostly because there are 2 sets of views.
Those who are the anti Pacer brigade who bang on about overcrowding and disability rights etc,and those who are not bothered about their use who don't mind them.

Like I have always said on here,WE are dictated by politics whether we like it or not.
It may be an inconvenience to a wheelchair user if the train isn't DDA compliant,but that is still better than a bus...or no train at all.
I personally think Pacers WILL continue working in 2020 even if they are only used as strengtheners to existing trains to avoid short forms,and that would be ideal at busy periods.
Until all the new trains and all the PRM mods have been done only then,we should be thinking of their withdrawal.
What is the back up plan if things go wrong? Put everyone on a bus?
If we let politics win,then expect mayhem as the common sense approach
seems little used these days.
 

thenorthern

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If there was a derogation awarded it would have to be approved by the ORR and DfT which would mean a load of high paid executives paid to sign things to allow the use of trains that are already in use.

In any case I can't see it being too much of an issue as it would only be a short derogation while the new trains are introduced which are already being built so in other words it wouldn't be one with no fixed deadline. Also the only other option to a derogation would be services temporarily cut because of the lack of trains and we know how that ended up last year.
 
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