"Northern Rail" diesel fleet post 2020?

[L+Y]

I'm putting "Northern Rail" in inverted commas because as far as I know we don't know if that's what the new franchise will be called...?

Anyway, I just wondered if it's so far possible to make educated guesses about the likely deployment of Northern's existing and new DMUs upon the completion of all current electrification projects and withdrawal of the Pacers. Of course, this makes the assumption that there won't be any further significant electrification projects of note in progress in five years time!

As a starting point, I'd assume that the new DMUs, whatever the fleet makeup of the 120 carriages (40 3 car units would be my best guess...?) will be based on the busiest Northern routes so far not planned for electrification: what do these consist of? Harrogate loop immediately comes to mind, as do Manchester-Buxton/Southport/Chester, but no doubt I'm forgetting some significant ones.

Any thoughts?

 

[Bevan Price]

Should we assume that the need for loco-haulage on the Cumbrian Coast will have ceased by 2020 ?
And, as an interim measure to cover dmu shortages, is it feasible that some other routes might see temporary use by loco-hauled stock ?

 

[Lemmy99uk]

The 120 new vehicles mentioned in the ITT was the minimum number the bidders had to procure.

I'm pretty sure that to enable the franchise to provide the quality and capacity improvements demanded that the actual number of new vehicles ordered is likely to be 200+

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Should we assume that the need for loco-haulage on the Cumbrian Coast will have ceased by 2020 ?
And, as an interim measure to cover dmu shortages, is it feasible that some other routes might see temporary use by loco-hauled stock ?

Yes and yes.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

The 120 new vehicles mentioned in the ITT was the minimum number the bidders had to procure.

I'm pretty sure that to enable the franchise to provide the quality and capacity improvements demanded that the actual number of new vehicles ordered is likely to be 200+

It will depend on what is procured for the "120 new vehicle order", what electrification projects are considered for CP6 and CP7 and what stock withdrawals or re-engineering works are planned by ROSCOs.

ROSCOs willing to purchase DMUs are few and far between, unfortunately, and there's persistent 'chatter' about bi-mode DMUs from Stadler being one of the only things ROSCOs will consider.

 

[Marshlinktrain]

Southern based on visit to vivarail. Are asking DFT permussion to install diesel engines in some of their electrastars. These would allow 4 car units with selective door opening to be run on marshlink line between ashford and Brighton.

I do not know lines up north but whether this type of unit could be used up there.

 

[Tetchytyke]

My gut instinct is that new rolling stock will be procured by Transport Scotland, meaning the 156s and the worst of the 158s (the ones that were originally meant to go to Northern in the first place) will be cascaded down to Northern Rail. Scotrail have 96 156 vehicles (48 sets), so that's most of the ITT dealt with already.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I do not know lines up north but whether this type of unit could be used up there.

A bi-mode that could do 100/110mph under wires but say 60-75mph on a small diesel engine would be ideal for Manchester Airport to Barrow, for example. I'm sure there are others.

 

[pemma]

Northern will likely be able to take on the 29 x 3 car 170s Scotrail will release. Apparently Southern will have a left over vehicle after reforming their Turbostars so the option to create 15 x 4 car 170s and 15 x 2 car 170s might exist.

The big question is what type of train the new trains will be and consequently what routes will they go on to. If new 'commuter trains' are ordered than the 170s will likely be needed for 'Regional Express' services. If new 'regional' trains are ordered than the 170s would be available for other services. Network Rail in a RUS tried to identify suitable local routes for trains like 170s to be cascaded down to in the future and the list included the Mid-Cheshire and Hope Valley stoppers. On the other hand for lines like Buxton and Southport they recommended stock with higher density seating, such as 156s.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

My gut instinct is that new rolling stock will be procured by Transport Scotland, meaning the 156s and the worst of the 158s (the ones that were originally meant to go to Northern in the first place) will be cascaded down to Northern Rail. Scotrail have 96 156 vehicles (48 sets), so that's most of the ITT dealt with already.

Abellio's winning franchise bid proposed releasing all the 170s and keeping all the Sprinters. Since then Transport Scotland decided to increase the subsidy so that Scotrail could increase the number of carriages and retain some newer 170s. The units they are set to release by the end of 2018 are:

• 10 x 2 car 156s
• 8 x 2 car 158s - probably exactly the same 8 units which were originally diverted from Northern to Scotrail.
• 29 x 3 car 170s - not including the 170s which Southern have already secured.

Subject to the HSTs and new Hitachi EMUs being received on time.

http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk...Redacted Franchise Agreement - CU version.pdf

 

[sprinterguy]

[*]8 x 2 car 158s - probably exactly the same 8 units which were originally diverted from Northern to Scotrail.

They will indeed - It's the eight Angel Trains owned units (the 40 resident Scottish units that have been up there their whole lives are owned by Porterbrook).

 

[Tetchytyke]

Abellio's winning franchise bid proposed releasing all the 170s and keeping all the Sprinters. Since then Transport Scotland decided to increase the subsidy so that Scotrail could increase the number of carriages and retain some newer 170s. The units they are set to release by the end of 2018 are:

• 10 x 2 car 156s
• 8 x 2 car 158s - probably exactly the same 8 units which were originally diverted from Northern to Scotrail.
• 29 x 3 car 170s - not including the 170s which Southern have already secured.

Ah, I thought they'd decided to keep the 170s so that they could take the 156s off the West Highland and the G&SW. (I know they're not currently cleared, and nor are the 158s, but I thought that was more to do with the simple fact they'd never tried, not that they couldn't).

In that case the 170s to EMT to allow EMT to cascade 156s back north to Northern. I can't imagine the 170s ever ending up in use with Northern.

 

[47802]

Ah, I thought they'd decided to keep the 170s so that they could take the 156s off the West Highland and the G&SW. (I know they're not currently cleared, and nor are the 158s, but I thought that was more to do with the simple fact they'd never tried, not that they couldn't).

In that case the 170s to EMT to allow EMT to cascade 156s back north to Northern. I can't imagine the 170s ever ending up in use with Northern.

As Jcollins says Northern might need 170's for Regional Expresses, if they are not needed for that then as you say possibly they might be used by another TOC in exchange for other units for Northern.

 

[Wolfie]

As Jcollins says Northern might need 170's for Regional Expresses, if they are not needed for that then as you say possibly they might be used by another TOC in exchange for other units for Northern.

Assuming of course that some other TOC doesn't just do a "Chiltern" and grab what it wants. Northern may want them but that does not equate to Northern getting them...

 

[pemma]

Assuming of course that some other TOC doesn't just do a "Chiltern" and grab what it wants. Northern may want them but that does not equate to Northern getting them...

Given the 170s won't be released until 2018 currently GTR and c2c are the only operators who could agree long term leases for those trains while Chiltern or XC could also sign a short term deal for them.

c2c have no need for any diesel trains, while if Govia's Northern bid includes use of all the released 170s it would be plain stupid for GTR to try to get hold of them, likewise if Arriva's Northern bid includes use of all of them it would be stupid for Arriva XC or Chiltern to try and get them.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

In that case the 170s to EMT to allow EMT to cascade 156s back north to Northern. I can't imagine the 170s ever ending up in use with Northern.

Northern bidders were allowed to propose taking on any off-lease Sprinter or Turbostar which will become surplus to requirements at it's current operator. TPE bidders weren't allowed to propose to taking on either. As Stagecoach aren't a Northern bidder and EMT aren't currently looking for additional/replacement stock I doubt EMT will finish up with them. However, I imagine it would allow Govia to propose taking on the LO 172s for LM when they are off-lease and releasing other DMUs to Northern, subject to DfT approving it.

 

[WatcherZero]

Ah, I thought they'd decided to keep the 170s so that they could take the 156s off the West Highland and the G&SW. (I know they're not currently cleared, and nor are the 158s, but I thought that was more to do with the simple fact they'd never tried, not that they couldn't).

The talk was the scotrail bid managed to be so cheap by an aggresively low cost oriented rolling stock strategy, ditching the 170's in favour of sprinters that were cheaper to lease and operate, bringing in HST rather than ordering new trains, etc...

 

[507021]

I'd certainly welcome the ScotRail 170s moving to the Northern franchise, they're superb units, in my opinion. I agree with the suggestion that if they do move to Northern they could be used on Regional Express services, allowing for 158s be used to strengthen other services and/or replace Pacers.

Just out of interest, does anybody know how many units the Northern franchise will have once Pacer replacement, further electrification and the required capacity increases have been implemented?

 

[pemma]

I'd certainly welcome the ScotRail 170s moving to the Northern franchise, they're superb units, in my opinion. I agree with the suggestion that if they do move to Northern they could be used on Regional Express services, allowing for 158s be used to strengthen other services and/or replace Pacers.

Just out of interest, does anybody know how many units the Northern franchise will have once Pacer replacement, further electrification and the required capacity increases have been implemented?

Short answer is we don't know until the winning bid is unveiled.

It may depend on what length carriages are procured/acquired. For instance a 3 car Turbostar is the same sort of length as a pair of 2 car Pacers (4 carriages.)

 

[Brian Aylott]

My gut instinct is that new rolling stock will be procured by Transport Scotland, meaning the 156s and the worst of the 158s (the ones that were originally meant to go to Northern in the first place) will be cascaded down to Northern Rail. Scotrail have 96 156 vehicles (48 sets), so that's most of the ITT dealt with already.

In fact Scotrail now only lease 47 x 156 units as 156478 has been written off
Brian

 

[L+Y]

Thanks for the informative responses, chaps.

Does anybody know the answer to the second part of my question, that is, which of Northern's current diesel routes, without any current plans for electrification are the busiest/most overcrowded and therefore most likely to see strengthening, or else an upgrade of new DMUs/cascaded 170s?

Originally I'm from West Lancashire, with the lines there being relatively easy to work out: Ormskirk-Preston and Kirkby-Wigan will be a 150 each (though if ever a couple of lines were suitable for Pacers to cling on, it's these!), and I think Southport-Manchester's platforms are being lengthened to accomodate 4 car 156 formations, giving a likely indicator as to what'll be happening there, but local knowledge is useful for other areas!

And loco-hauled stock is often mentioned as a temporary stopgap: which Northern routes are most suitable for this. LHCS seems to make most sense in longer distance, relatively limited stop services, but how many of these will be left post NW and TPE electrification? York-Blackpool via Copy Pit comes to mind assuming DVTs or DSBOs are used: where else could LHCS fit in without causing too much hassle?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think rather than Northern using LHCS on city services, it would make more sense to use it in locations that do suit its operation and freeing up DMUs by doing so. So more LHCS on Chiltern, or on the North Wales Coast, or the S&C, would release DMUs for other purposes.

 

[pemma]

Does anybody know the answer to the second part of my question, that is, which of Northern's current diesel routes, without any current plans for electrification are the busiest/most overcrowded and therefore most likely to see strengthening, or else an upgrade of new DMUs/cascaded 170s?

There's only very limited information in the public domain at the moment. For instance regarding the Govia bid

Govia Northern Ltd (‘GNR’) is 1 of 3 companies shortlisted by the Department for Transport to bid for the Northern franchise (‘Franchise’). The Franchise encompasses routes which are included in the current Northern franchise and other services ‘remapped’ from the Transpennine Express franchise.

GNR is a subsidiary of Govia, a joint venture between Go-Ahead Group and Keolis (a subsidiary of French national rail operator SNCF). Govia subsidiaries operate the Southern, London Midland, Thameslink Southern Great Northern and Southeastern franchises and provide services on rail routes from Birmingham to the south coast including services throughout London. 35 % of all UK passenger rail journeys are taken on Govia trains, making it the largest commuter rail group in the UK.

The invitation to tender for the Franchise requires that the franchisee procures and brings into service new carriages (‘Vehicles’) that are capable of being used to operate passenger services on non-electrified routes. The Vehicles must be designed with future demand and users' needs in mind, with a clear focus on passenger comfort and with a thoroughly modern passenger environment and exterior look.

GNR has commenced a process for the procurement of at least 120 Vehicles, options to purchase additional vehicles and associated spares and special tools (‘Associated Equipment’).

GNR is also hereby seeking finance for the Vehicles and Associated Equipment.

No contract will be awarded unless the franchise bid is successful and is subject to the usual approvals and consents.

http://www.publictenders.net/node/2992744

That's basically just the ITT rewritten in a different form for the purpose of Govia looking in to new rolling stock.

Abellio's information is even more vague as they're looking at rolling stock for both their Northern and Anglia bids at the same time.

The utility intends to set up a qualification system (replacing any former qualification systems) which will be comprised of 4 (four) lots (Lots). Applicants can apply to qualify for consideration for all, one, two or three of these Lots — further details will be set out in the pre-qualification questionnaire (see III.1.1):

Lot 1 — the supply of electric multiple units (EMUs);

Lot 2 — the supply of diesel multiple units (DMUs) and/or other self-propelled rolling stock;

Lot 3 — the maintenance, refurbishment and/or repair of EMUs;

Lot 4 — the maintenance, refurbishment and/or repair of DMUs and/or other self-propelled rolling stock.

Abellio Transport Holdings Ltd (Abellio) currently operates train services in the United Kingdom and Germany. This qualification system is only intended to cover supplies made in connection with operations in the United Kingdom, which may include supply of rolling stock for use in the new Northern and/or Greater Anglia franchises, to be awarded by the Department for Transport in 2015 and 2016 (respectively).

This qualification system will be used by Abellio and its subsidiaries and associated companies (existing and/or to be created) and, where permitted, any joint ventures (contractual or corporate) in which Abellio or any of its subsidiaries, future subsidiaries or associated companies has an interest (including Abellio Northern Ltd).

Abellio reserves the right not to award any contracts and will not be liable for any costs incurred by bidders. Abellio also reserves the right to make any changes it sees fit in respect of the timing and terms of the qualification process, including cancelling the process at any stage.

The pre-qualification questionnaire (PQQ) must be obtained from the contact in Section I.1 and returned to the address provided in the PQQ in order for an applicant to be assessed for inclusion on any part or parts of the qualification system.

Abellio will require responses to the PQQ by any bidders who would like to be considered for the supply of rolling stock/maintenance for the Northern franchise on or before 12:00 noon on 1.12.2014.

Time-scales for other tenders under this Qualification System will be project specific and notified to successful respondents in due course.

http://www.publictenders.net/node/2819291

So not really enough to say which lines will get new trains and different bidders may be looking at introducing new trains on different routes.

 

[Bevan Price]

Thanks for the informative responses, chaps.

Does anybody know the answer to the second part of my question, that is, which of Northern's current diesel routes, without any current plans for electrification are the busiest/most overcrowded and therefore most likely to see strengthening, or else an upgrade of new DMUs/cascaded 170s?

Originally I'm from West Lancashire, with the lines there being relatively easy to work out: Ormskirk-Preston and Kirkby-Wigan will be a 150 each (though if ever a couple of lines were suitable for Pacers to cling on, it's these!), and I think Southport-Manchester's platforms are being lengthened to accomodate 4 car 156 formations, giving a likely indicator as to what'll be happening there, but local knowledge is useful for other areas!

And loco-hauled stock is often mentioned as a temporary stopgap: which Northern routes are most suitable for this. LHCS seems to make most sense in longer distance, relatively limited stop services, but how many of these will be left post NW and TPE electrification? York-Blackpool via Copy Pit comes to mind assuming DVTs or DSBOs are used: where else could LHCS fit in without causing too much hassle?

Someone has suggested to me that a Southport - Manchester diagram might be feasible with top/tail 67s --- but I will probably believe that only if/when it happens.

 

[Lemmy99uk]

Barrow - Manchester Airport fast services might also be suitable for loco hauled, with the added bonus that Barrow men are already trained on locomotives/MKIIs.

 

[Haydn1971]

Re the 120 cars... I've often felt that rather than going for a standard fleet of all 3 or 4 car units as would be the norm perhaps in the south, a mix of 2, 3 & 4 cars with end gangways would help with flexibility across the Northern franchise further down the line once the key routes are electrified and the 15x fleets are retired. The then incumbent operator would have options for multiple units in any length from 2 to 8 cars

 

[pemma]

Re the 120 cars... I've often felt that rather than going for a standard fleet of all 3 or 4 car units as would be the norm perhaps in the south, a mix of 2, 3 & 4 cars with end gangways would help with flexibility across the Northern franchise further down the line once the key routes are electrified and the 15x fleets are retired. The then incumbent operator would have options for multiple units in any length from 2 to 8 cars

Worth remembering there's plenty of 2 car trains already available to Northern and they run many diagrams involving multiple units joined up. 2, 4, 6 or 8 car are easily possible at present. Although if they try to run a 8 car DMU formation they'll be a lot of wasted space due to all the redundant cabs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Worth remembering there's plenty of 2 car trains already available to Northern and they run many diagrams involving multiple units joined up. 2, 4, 6 or 8 car are easily possible at present. Although if they try to run a 8 car DMU formation they'll be a lot of wasted space due to all the redundant cabs.

And unless there's a big change, there will be almost no services suited to 2-car units before very long anyway.

With 3s and 4s you can do 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. I doubt anyone would lose sleep over not being able to do 5.

 

[pemma]

And unless there's a big change, there will be almost no services suited to 2-car units before very long anyway.

With 3s and 4s you can do 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. I doubt anyone would lose sleep over not being able to do 5.

There are ways 5 car could still be possible using existing stock even if all the new build is 4 car.

The next franchise will likely retain some 3 car 158s, also if they get 3 car 170s and keep them in that formation they could run as 5 car in multiple with 2 car 158s without limiting the top speed too much.

I also image they could semi-permanently create some 3 car 150s/158s (as has been done in the past) or discuss with the ROSCOs turning the Northern 155s and 153s in something like 10 x 3 car Sprinters.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

... discuss with the ROSCOs turning the Northern 155s and 153s in something like 10 x 3 car Sprinters.

I think the best post-2020 solution would be to form ALL 84 of the 153/155 vehicles (70x153, 14x155) into 28 3-car sets with one large and one small toilet per set. These 28 sets would all be allocated to Northern for use on Harrogate services, Calder Valley stoppers and other appropriate West Yorkshire diagrams. I haven't actually crunched the numbers but it could help fill the void left by pacers leaving, particularly if e144s replace some of the 153s at ATW, EMT and GA.

 

[507021]

Short answer is we don't know until the winning bid is unveiled.

It may depend on what length carriages are procured/acquired. For instance a 3 car Turbostar is the same sort of length as a pair of 2 car Pacers (4 carriages.)

Shouldn't be too long before we find out then. Thanks.

 

[NorthernSpirit]

I also imagine they could semi-permanently create some 3 car 150s/158s (as has been done in the past) or discuss with the ROSCOs turning the Northern 155s and 153s in something like 10 x 3 car Sprinters.

The 150's can be converted to four car operation. It wouldn't look out of place and it would allow two toilets in use per set thus in theory less time wasted on tanking as there'd be two in use and not just the one.

It could be laid out as 150/1 52 + 150/2 57 + 150/2 52 + 150/157. The two /2 cabs would face one another, the redundant cabs could therefore be used as a luggage shelf.

Not sure on how modifying the class 156's would work as three car, but it could be done. It would require the class to be split into two subclasses as one batch would have two toilets onboard where as the other, just one as I'm thinking on the lines of the remaining 52 end coaches and 57 end coaches.

 

[pemma]

The 150's can be converted to four car operation. It wouldn't look out of place and it would allow two toilets in use per set thus in theory less time wasted on tanking as there'd be two in use and not just the one.

It could be laid out as 150/1 52 + 150/2 57 + 150/2 52 + 150/157. The two /2 cabs would face one another, the redundant cabs could therefore be used as a luggage shelf.

Indeed. I suggested making 3 car versions because Neil Williams mentioned 2, 4, 6 or 8 car being possible. If permanent 4 car 150s were created they would only need one properly accessible toilet, a second one will still need to be like the non-accessible toilet on Desiros to meet the post-2019 requirements but it would save space over having 2 fully accessible ones on a 80m formation.

Not sure on how modifying the class 156's would work as three car, but it could be done. It would require the class to be split into two subclasses as one batch would have two toilets onboard where as the other, just one as I'm thinking on the lines of the remaining 52 end coaches and 57 end coaches.

I was suggesting reforming the 7 x 2 car 155s and the single 153s to make 3 car trains. I'm not sure reforming the 156s would be a good idea because a lot of stations on the Northern network are able to take 4 car 156s but not that many would be able to take 6 car 156s, which would be almost as long as a hypothetical 7 car 150.