Northern timetable plan for May 2018

[47802]

M<

Just looking at the 12:00 to 12:59 period for Piccadilly services I notice the XC and ATW (South Wales) services have new paths so it might not be as simple as keep things how they are.

Well that will be interesting then, I guess they could try implementing most of it, possibly at the expensive of some improvements elsewhere.

Wonder what the likely hood of 1 of the Blackpool Manchester services being routed via Wigan so that it could go electric

 

[Mathew S]

Yes, I think that's what's going to have to happen, by the sound of things. Not to begin to better utilise the Ordsall Chord would be embarassing, on top of the failure to complete the Manc-Preston works on time (which will be seen as a Northern/Network Rail failure by the press/public).
Even if it's necessary to take out some services alltogether, a partial implementation will look for more positive for all involved than the status quo, which (justified or not) will look like they're not really trying.

 

[lejog]

That's not quire correct. Wigan-Bolton was scheduled for 2018 completion while Windermere was scheduled for 2020 completion with a caveat that it wasn't a confirmed scheme.

Where is this information? I've never found any specific dates for completion of electrification in the Franchise Agreement itself, just a reference to external unpublished documents. I've edited my post accordingly.

 

[Bwlch y Groes]

If the times on OpenTrainTimes are to be believed, the early morning Saltburn/Middlesbrough to Newcastle via Darlington/Durham services are now extended to Carlisle. I think this might suggest that the Northern Connect services will be routed via the ECML rather than the Durham Coast - which is implied here, where the use of 'Durham' is a touch vague as it could refer to the city or the coast!

It was originally intended to go via Stillington but the upgrade work hasn't been done on the line yet

 

[Mathew S]

From the 'May 2018 timetable changes' thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/may-2018-timetable-changes.158983/

Yes this is today's big news but we already knew of it. This shouldn't affect TPE much except that the backup plan is to run Scottish trains after Manchester Oxford Road non stop to Preston via Wigan NW and vice versa. Bearing in mind Northern will be running via Wigan NW on the new Lancaster service from Manchester and will call there.

Yes that is correct but I have been informed today that the majority of changes at TPE won't be affected and will still happen. The major issues are the timings of the Man Air to Scotland trains as they might now have to run via Wigan non stop instead of Bolton non stop/pickup/set down only.

The movement of all Liverpool TPE trains to Chat Moss should still happen. Can't see why it won't.

With all the usual caveats obviously, but does rather lessen the impact of delays to the Bolton electrification if it turns out to be the case.

 

[pemma]

Where is this information? I've never found any specific dates for completion of electrification in the Franchise Agreement itself, just a reference to external unpublished documents. I've edited my post accordingly.

There's been various dates mentioned on the Network Rail site but the articles keep disappearing or getting revised. It appears completing everything in the North West by December 2017 was once the plan but then Wigan-Bolton got put back to 2018 and Oxenholme-Windermere by 2019, before Network Rail announced it wouldn't get Blackpool and Bolton wired by the end of 2017.

 

[Chester1]

Yes, I think that's what's going to have to happen, by the sound of things. Not to begin to better utilise the Ordsall Chord would be embarassing, on top of the failure to complete the Manc-Preston works on time (which will be seen as a Northern/Network Rail failure by the press/public).
Even if it's necessary to take out some services alltogether, a partial implementation will look for more positive for all involved than the status quo, which (justified or not) will look like they're not really trying.

From the 'May 2018 timetable changes' thread https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/may-2018-timetable-changes.158983/

With all the usual caveats obviously, but does rather lessen the impact of delays to the Bolton electrification if it turns out to be the case.

Northern received 4 cascaded units a couple of weeks ago and I think they are due another 12 by the May timetable change so they have have more options for May compared with last months change. The critical political point will be the planned withdrawal of the first 5 pacers (5 x 2 coach 144s) on 15th September. The Tories will not want the headlines caused by delaying the withdrawal of pacers from the North. That still provides another 4 months for some 769s to be delivered or Manchester - Preston electrification to be completed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why withdraw the 144s first? They are in far better condition than the 142s. Is it just down to when major overhauls are due?

 

[Chester1]

Why withdraw the 144s first? They are in far better condition than the 142s. Is it just down to when major overhauls are due?

No idea. Maybe lease end dates? All of the 144s are planned for withdrawal by end of March 2019 but the last 142 won't be withdrawn until October 2019.

 

[pemma]

Why withdraw the 144s first? They are in far better condition than the 142s. Is it just down to when major overhauls are due?

I think it relates to Neville Hill getting it's full compliment of new and cascaded DMUs sooner than Newton Heath.

 

[158756]

If TPE are going ahead with their changes Northern will probably have to implement the new timetable where it relates to TPE and axe some of the other improvements planned - Greenbank, Hazel Grove, Atherton, Harrogate, Retford etc, though that might require a rewrite of the timetable or some stations would end up with a reduced or even no service.

The Bolton line timetable is itself a problem - the planned Preston-Victoria service has a 5 minute turnaround at both ends, and a 75mph DMU on the Blackpool-Macclesfield route would lose it's path through Oxford Road and be caught by a Cross Country train before Macclesfield. But everything else has been moved round, so you can't just run the old timetable for those routes. The semi fast might fit via Wigan.

One hopes plans have already been made for what happens now given we've suspected electrification to be late for some time.

The simplest thing to do might be to bustitute Preston-Bolton (again).

 

[lejog]

There's been various dates mentioned on the Network Rail site but the articles keep disappearing or getting revised. It appears completing everything in the North West by December 2017 was once the plan but then Wigan-Bolton got put back to 2018 and Oxenholme-Windermere by 2019, before Network Rail announced it wouldn't get Blackpool and Bolton wired by the end of 2017.

Ah so the electrification dates that are assumed in the Northern contract are indeed not in the public domain and are contained in an external Assumptions document. There is no particular reason that they should match those publicly available on the NR site, they are likely to be whatever Arriva assumed in their proposal, modified by whatever was agreed during contract negotiation.

 

[pemma]

If TPE are going ahead with their changes Northern will probably have to implement the new timetable where it relates to TPE and axe some of the other improvements planned - Greenbank, Hazel Grove, Atherton, Harrogate, Retford etc, though that might require a rewrite of the timetable or some stations would end up with a reduced or even no service.

Like I said further up the thread improvements on some routes like Harrogate, Retford are completely independent of the North TPE changes. Others, which include pretty much everything in the 'South Manchester' group, aren't independent as if North TPE changes go out the paths out of Piccadilly which are available to Northern change so the timetable and diagramming cannot remain the same. For instance, the xx:17 path out of Piccadilly (currently used for Chester services) won't be available to a train starting at Piccadilly, it'll be for a train which has arrived at Piccadilly from Oxford Road.

 

[Philip]

Would it not be better just to close the whole Bolton route, or at least the half which needs the most work, for a few months like they did in 2015 and currently have done on the Blackpool line, in order to get it finished for May?

If most of the southern section is finished and just needs a few night/weekend blockades then they could of course run trains via Westhoughton into Bolton that would normally go via Chorley.

 

[Kieran1990]

Would it not be better just to close the whole Bolton route, or at least the half which needs the most work, for a few months like they did in 2015 and currently have done on the Blackpool line, in order to get it finished for May?

If most of the southern section is finished and just needs a few night/weekend blockades then they could of course run trains via Westhoughton into Bolton that would normally go via Chorley.

I suspect Network Rail don’t want to be hit the hefty fine/ compo to TOC’s and anymore negative publicity around the works.
It’s also fairly short notice if Network Rail want to shut the line via Bolton for May timetable implementation. Wouldn’t leave Northern & TPE a lot of time to plan some sort of service between Manchester & Preston via Wigan.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

And I agree, there are lots of things which can happen regardless of the state of things through Bolton. The only absolute non-starters I can think of are the journey time reductions through Bolton and switching the TPE Scottish services to that route. Leave the Northern Barrow/Windermere services via Bolton for another few months if the Scotlands have to run via Wigan, and hold off on some of the other Bolton changes, and I don't see any insurmountable issues. Assuming, and it's a big assumption, that there are sufficient DMUs to run everything else.

I didn't notice much journey time reduction via Bolton looking at OTT, just the TPE Scotland service running 5 minutes faster than via Wigan.
The regular 3 semi-fast/stoppers to Preston or beyond don't look noticeably faster than now.
Maybe things will change when 331s arrive.
The Airport-Cumbria via Wigan is a good 5m slower than the current Scotland 350.

 

[Mathew S]

Would it not be better just to close the whole Bolton route, or at least the half which needs the most work, for a few months like they did in 2015 and currently have done on the Blackpool line, in order to get it finished for May?

If most of the southern section is finished and just needs a few night/weekend blockades then they could of course run trains via Westhoughton into Bolton that would normally go via Chorley.

Objectively, yes. But I don't imagine it would go down well with the locals, and can't see it happening. I'd guess continuing weekend blockades is probably more likely, perhaps with a final 2/3 week total closure later in the year.

 

[158756]

Like I said further up the thread improvements on some routes like Harrogate, Retford are completely independent of the North TPE changes. Others, which include pretty much everything in the 'South Manchester' group, aren't independent as if North TPE changes go out the paths out of Piccadilly which are available to Northern change so the timetable and diagramming cannot remain the same. For instance, the xx:17 path out of Piccadilly (currently used for Chester services) won't be available to a train starting at Piccadilly, it'll be for a train which has arrived at Piccadilly from Oxford Road.

There won't be many places where the current timetable could be maintained for any particular route without impacting others - Harrogate could, possibly the North East might be sufficiently separated to keep the whole region on the existing times, Retford would affect everything through Sheffield.

If they do end up running the new timetable with trains chopped off it'll probably be wherever the diagrams can be made to work without them- if the new Greenbank/Hazel Grove/Buxton diagrams are self contained they'd be relatively easy to cut.

 

[Mathew S]

The Airport-Cumbria via Wigan is a good 5m slower than the current Scotland 350.

The timings on that seem off to me. At the moment it's showing 10mins longer in one direction than the other between Wigan and Manchester.

 

[Kieran1990]

Would be nice to finally get the 4tph off-peak on the Harrogate loop this May! But I dont hold my breath. Saying that Class 170’s are due to arrive in the coming months so the fleet will be there to run the enchanced timetable and it’s a fairly self contained route.

 

[pemma]

If they do end up running the new timetable with trains chopped off it'll probably be wherever the diagrams can be made to work without them- if the new Greenbank/Hazel Grove/Buxton diagrams are self contained they'd be relatively easy to cut.

From the few Mid-Cheshire services currently appearing on OTT it looks like the intention is to have diagrams which include both Chester and Greenbank only services with significantly reduced turnaround times at Piccadilly (10 minutes instead of around 45), opposed to having separate Greenbank diagrams which can be just left out.

 

[158756]

The timings on that seem off to me. At the moment it's showing 10mins longer in one direction than the other between Wigan and Manchester.

That's because it's got a terrible path southbound. It has to reach Golborne at that time to get out of the way of a Virgin service following, but then has to wait for the North Wales service on Chat Moss and for a train coming off the Ordsall Chord.

 

[pemma]

The timings on that seem off to me. At the moment it's showing 10mins longer in one direction than the other between Wigan and Manchester.

I believe while it says timed for 158s Northern wanted a timetable that they could use a 150/156 on without any problems. Looks like the problem in the southbound direction is it has to wait for the North Wales service to clear Chat Moss.

 

[Mathew S]

That's because it's got a terrible path southbound. It has to reach Golborne at that time to get out of the way of a Virgin service following, but then has to wait for the North Wales service on Chat Moss and for a train coming off the Ordsall Chord.

I don't imagine that them being 158s helps with that either. I do wonder about the wisdom of running those services via Golborne using (very) sub-110mph units.

 

[Mathew S]

I believe while it says timed for 158s Northern wanted a timetable that they could use a 150/156 on without any problems. Looks like the problem in the southbound direction is it has to wait for the North Wales service to clear Chat Moss.

There's at least one service in OTT pathed as a 15x at 75mph. I hope that's an error, but it won't be. 156s wouldn't be too bad, but MIA to Barrow on a 3+2 150 will be purgatory.

 

[158756]

I believe while it says timed for 158s Northern wanted a timetable that they could use a 150/156 on without any problems. Looks like the problem in the southbound direction is it has to wait for the North Wales service to clear Chat Moss.

If that was what they wanted they haven't got it - most of Northern's Cumbria services have got Virgin trains 3-5 minutes behind at Golborne/Carnforth/Oxenholme. (Except the 1129 Manchester Airport - Windermere, which has a 10 minute stop at Preston to let a Virgin express past, and then 20 minutes at Lancaster for TPE and the other Virgin)

 

[Starmill]

It hasn't been needlessly withdrawn, it has been removed in order to allow more trains to run along the Styal line; having two all-stops train per hour would lead to pathing constraints or at least a very tightly run timetable with likely potential for delays.

The route currently supports 10 services per hour with both stopping trains so I do not see why there is a need for it to be withdrawn, it could simply be extended through to a new destination. Even with a skip-stop pattern (something I have advocated for a long time, in order to provide additional peak time services) there should be far more attention paid to providing a balanced service than random direct train requirements like Hebden Bridge to Wigan or Stockport to Bolton. It has been clear for a long time that some of the additional services are needless anyway. There is no justification for the franchise requirement to run 2tph from Huddersfield, Leeds and York to Manchester Airport - 1 is perfectly sufficient. However, even taking that into account, the removal of the all stations train was not part of the initial plan either, it has been done at the last minute with no consultation.

 

[Starmill]

I believe while it says timed for 158s Northern wanted a timetable that they could use a 150/156 on without any problems. Looks like the problem in the southbound direction is it has to wait for the North Wales service to clear Chat Moss.

There appear to be a few services which skip Lancaster including the 1729 from Manchester Airport and a few other Windermere services, presumably in aid of this. It's not great but I guess it's a solution...

There's at least one service in OTT pathed as a 15x at 75mph. I hope that's an error, but it won't be. 156s wouldn't be too bad, but MIA to Barrow on a 3+2 150 will be purgatory.

It would be pretty horrible, I agree. But it's also only what you get at present on loads of trains if your journey is Liverpool to Manchester Airport or Greenbank to Manchester. The services between Cumbria and Manchester have already had quality trashed and journey times increased by transferring the route away from TransPennine, and there were already higher expectations to manage.

 

[Mathew S]

The services between Cumbria and Manchester have already had quality trashed and journey times increased by transferring the route away from TransPennine, and there were already higher expectations to manage.

Indeed. There'll be a fair few Wigan-Manchester commuters who aren't best pleased with their comfy, air conditioned, TransPennine 350 turning into a Northern 15x as well.

 

[Philip]

I suppose when Cardiff to Manchester services still have some booked 150 workings on Sundays then we can't complain too much if one or two Barrow to Manchester services have them. It'd still be much better than 142s turning up.