Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[yorkie]

Has anyone asked how ill are the people with this new variant ?

Yes and the answer is: not particularly ill; those who are ill are unvaccinated.

See: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...variant-of-concern.225357/page-3#post-5421383

That's interesting. If it's proven that Omicron causes milder disease, should we all have Omicron parties to help it defeat Delta?

Joking aside...

If it causes milder disease and is a more fit virus, then it will happen naturally (and this would be really good news, especially in the longer term, even if it causes an increase in cases in the short term)

If it causes milder disease but has the same fitness, then in theory it would be beneficial to somehow assist it in pushing out delta, but there is probably no practical way to do that.

If it causes milder disease but is not as fit as delta then it will fizzle out and there is nothing we can do about it.

So far it seems the hype surrounding this variant appears to be based on misunderstandings about mutations rather than any real world evidence.

Also we shouldn't forget there was a lot of fear-mongering about Delta which proved to be largely unfounded.

 

[brad465]

I do wonder how long it'll be before someone genetically engineers humans to become a species that has to hibernate in winter in order to not get viruses every winter. That's what we might as well be doing the way we're going about things.

 

[bramling]

Yes and the answer is: not particularly ill; those who are ill are unvaccinated.

See: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...variant-of-concern.225357/page-3#post-5421383




Joking aside...

If it causes milder disease and is a more fit virus, then it will happen naturally (and this would be really good news, especially in the longer term, even if it causes an increase in cases in the short term)

If it causes milder disease but has the same fitness, then in theory it would be beneficial to somehow assist it in pushing out delta, but there is probably no practical way to do that.

If it causes milder disease but is not as fit as delta then it will fizzle out and there is nothing we can do about it.

So far it seems the hype surrounding this variant appears to be based on misunderstandings about mutations rather than any real world evidence.

Also we shouldn't forget there was a lot of fear-mongering about Delta which proved to be largely unfounded.

To be fair, one of the news channels did have someone on for about a minute explaining exactly this, and how the new variant could actually turn out to be a very good thing indeed, in the right circumstances.

Not so good if your name is Boris Johnson and you're desperate for the news agenda to return to Covid in order to drown out other stuff, like sleaze / Peppa Pig / general uselessness / reduced majority at a by-election / migrants crossing the channel / row with France / Cummings / etc!

 

[WestRiding]

I would check the legislation once published before you write off the hotel. Under the existing isolation requirements for unvaccinated people, you’re permitted to change your isolation address whilst isolating with a genuine reason, eg a stopover to reach home. You simply list both addresses on the locator form (it’s designed to allow this).

Didn't think would be allowed. Even lose my Sunday night at work now pending result from PCR, land at 11pm East Midlands, test place shut.

 

[adc82140]

Has anyone, ever, has a visit to the address on the PLF to make sure that they are there? In any case, as I said up thread, just send off a postal test on your way home (do it in the bogs at the airport) and if anyone asks, you've got the results and it was negative.

 

[WestRiding]

What happens if you don't actually do the PCR test, from Randox for example?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Not so good if your name is Boris Johnson and you're desperate for the news agenda to return to Covid in order to drown out other stuff, like sleaze / Peppa Pig / general uselessness / reduced majority at a by-election / migrants crossing the channel / row with France / Cummings / etc!

You could blame Johnson for the one that I have emboldened above if those migrants were leaving our shores for the European mainland, but are not these migrants heading from France to the Kent area?

 

[yorksrob]

I do wonder how long it'll be before someone genetically engineers humans to become a species that has to hibernate in winter in order to not get viruses every winter. That's what we might as well be doing the way we're going about things.

Bring it on (I could do with a rest from work )

 

[adc82140]

Omicron has been detected in Australia. Which means that all this border closing rubbish makes not one jot of difference.

COVID news live: Wales slashes self isolation time amid scramble for PCR tests due to 'exceptional demand'

Coronavirus latest as the UK records a new daily record of 183,037 infections in 24 hours; New Nightingale "surge hubs" to be set up amid growing Omicron wave; Police appeal for information after dozens of anti-vaxxers protest at testing site.

news.sky.com

Two people have tested positive for the Omicron COVID variant in Australia.

The New South Wales Ministry of Health (NSW Health) said two travellers arriving in Sydney from South Africa had been infected with the variant of concern.

They were among 14 passengers from southern Africa who arrived on a Qatar Airways flight from Doha at around 7pm last night.

Both people were asymptomatic and fully vaccinated, and they are now self-isolating is special health accommodation.

The other 12 passengers on board the flight have been ordered to undergo hotel quarantine for 14 days.

Around 260 passengers and air crew on the flight have been considered close contacts and told to isolate.

 

[martin2345uk]

What are the rules and guidance for face masks and coverings? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344

GODDAMMIT.

 

[yorkie]

We have separate threads for travel abroad and face masks.

This thread is dedicated to discussing the variant itself.

 

[big_rig]

Yes and the answer is: not particularly ill; those who are ill are unvaccinated.

See: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...variant-of-concern.225357/page-3#post-5421383




Joking aside...

If it causes milder disease and is a more fit virus, then it will happen naturally (and this would be really good news, especially in the longer term, even if it causes an increase in cases in the short term)

If it causes milder disease but has the same fitness, then in theory it would be beneficial to somehow assist it in pushing out delta, but there is probably no practical way to do that.

If it causes milder disease but is not as fit as delta then it will fizzle out and there is nothing we can do about it.

So far it seems the hype surrounding this variant appears to be based on misunderstandings about mutations rather than any real world evidence.

Also we shouldn't forget there was a lot of fear-mongering about Delta which proved to be largely unfounded.

Absolutely. I remember the predictions of the Twitter epidemiologists around Delta - it was a child killer, you could get it just by walking past somebody out in the open air, it would evade the vaccines (hence the idiotic American term ‘breakthrough infection’) and I think it was meant to be worse for ‘long covid’ as well. So far about all that seems to have been proven about this latest one is that people who have had it in South Africa were tired and had headaches.

Unfortunately the prevailing culture globally with regards to variants and the pandemic in general is that a prediction which overeggs the downsides can never be wrong, and nobody who makes wrong predictions in that manner should ever feel any kind of shame or humility in a personal or intellectual sense, no matter the economic or social consequences. I don’t know how that changes except for my long held belief that in a few years having been an epidemiologist or politician in this era will be about as popular as being a banker was after 2008.

 

[bramling]

You could blame Johnson for the one that I have emboldened above if those migrants were leaving our shores for the European mainland, but are not these migrants heading from France to the Kent area?

I wasn’t attempting to blame or disblame Johnson, just make the point that it’s one of a number of issues which are bringing Johnson negative publicity. Or, to put it another way, bad stuff that would benefit from being buried (by Covid).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wasn’t attempting to blame or disblame Johnson, just make the point that it’s one of a number of issues which are bringing Johnson negative publicity. Or, to put it another way, bad stuff that would benefit from being buried (by Covid).

What should Johnson do to show he is acting with strength in this respect. Send out the gunboats and blast those inflatalbes to smithereens?

 

[adc82140]

What should Johnson do to show he is acting with strength in this respect. Send out the gunboats and blast those inflatalbes to smithereens?

This is wildly off topic, so mods feel free to remove, but he should act like a statesman and engage with the French according to diplomatic norms, not via Twitter.

Actually to bring this back on topic, surely the timing of the new Covid rules should have been announced at the press conference, not on the Andrew Marr show. I don't believe we have an obligation to watch the Sunday political shows to find out about new laws.

 

[brad465]

The South African Doctor who spotted this latest variant is saying symptoms are "extremely mild" so far:

Omicron symptoms mild so far - South African doctor

The South African doctor who found the new variant says patients are showing very mild symptoms so far.

www.bbc.co.uk

Dr Angelique Coetzee, the South African doctor who first spotted the new Covid variant Omicron, says the patients seen so far have had "extremely mild symptoms" - but more time is needed before we know the seriousness of the disease for vulnerable people.

Watch her tell the BBC's Andrew Marr how patients in South Africa have told her they've been feeling.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

This is wildly off topic, so mods feel free to remove, but he should act like a statesman and engage with the French according to diplomatic norms, not via Twitter.

Actually to bring this back on topic, surely the timing of the new Covid rules should have been announced at the press conference, not on the Andrew Marr show. I don't believe we have an obligation to watch the Sunday political shows to find out about new laws.

If it is wildly off topic, then the posting it was responded to was most certainly of the same ilk.

Anyone reading this thread would assume that Britain was acting alone in its response to the omicron latest problem. Has the Netherlands just made a response to how they are responding it it?

 

[bramling]

If it is wildly off topic, then the posting it was responded to was most certainly of the same ilk.

Anyone reading this thread would assume that Britain was acting alone in its response to the omikron latest problem. Has the Netherlands just made a response to how they are responding it it?

I don’t think it’s irrelevant to consider the possibility that Boris has been under considerable pressure over the last 2-3 weeks, with pretty much constant negative publicity from a range of matters (Channel crossings being just one of a long list of such matters), and to note that it’s rather convenient that suddenly a highly effective distraction from all this has surfaced - and nicely timed to dominate all the weekend news media too.

I’m even more cynical about it now we’ve had the predictable “behave or you don’t get Christmas with your families” threat.

 

[TheEdge]

The South African Doctor who spotted this latest variant is saying symptoms are "extremely mild" so far:

I notice various people jump on what she's said as 100% perfect evidence Omicron is not causing worse infections. While I hope she's right and I'm not happy to see a slide towards restrictions again I'm still cautious. She's South African and the name/face being attached to Omicron, she may have professional, personal or political reasons to downplay its seriousness. She also may not at all but personally I'll be happier once the same conclusion comes from scientists outside of SA.

 

[yorkie]

How should one be "cautious" ?

The T cell epitopes are not changing in any of the variants; why would that change now?

What evidence is there that this variant is any more dangerous than previous variants?

The number of mutations appears to be the main excuse for the hysteria, but that's not actually a reason for concern; more mutations does not mean more fitness or more virulence.

Virologists and immunologists who trust vaccines are not particularly concerned so I don't see why we should live our lives any differently?

The only important thing is to get vaccinated. That's it.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I don’t think it’s irrelevant to consider the possibility that Boris has been under considerable pressure over the last 2-3 weeks, with pretty much constant negative publicity from a range of matters (Channel crossings being just one of a long list of such matters), and to note that it’s rather convenient that suddenly a highly effective distraction from all this has surfaced - and nicely timed to dominate all the weekend news media too.

I’m even more cynical about it now we’ve had the predictable “behave or you don’t get Christmas with your families” threat.

A response from me on a very personal matter that just a few website members are aware of.

The funeral service for my dear wife Patricia is scheduled for 1130 on 9th December. Will any new draconian measures be put in place to disrupt that, as people are travelling from all over the country and have already booked hotels to stay at.

 

[adc82140]

A response from me on a very personal matter that just a few website members are aware of.

The funeral service for my dear wife Patricia is scheduled for 1130 on 9th December. Will any new draconian measures be put in place to disrupt that, as people are travelling from all over the country and have already booked hotels to stay at.

I'm very sorry to hear this. I cannot imagine how you are feeling right now.

I very much doubt there will be any barriers to your friends and family gathering to celebrate the life of your wife. Even if "rules" are tightened, restricting funerals again would not be palatable to anyone.

 

[Yew]

A response from me on a very personal matter that just a few website members are aware of.

The funeral service for my dear wife Patricia is scheduled for 1130 on 9th December. Will any new draconian measures be put in place to disrupt that, as people are travelling from all over the country and have already booked hotels to stay at.

I'm very sad to her that Paul, I hope you are doing as well as you can be. So far, I don't think anything has been announced that would effect funeral services or hospitality; I hope that nothing changes and you can all pay your respects.

 

[Jonny]

I would check the legislation once published before you write off the hotel. Under the existing isolation requirements for unvaccinated people, you’re permitted to change your isolation address whilst isolating with a genuine reason, eg a stopover to reach home. You simply list both addresses on the locator form (it’s designed to allow this).

The difference between the requirements for vaccinated and non-vaccinated people already has the look and feel of an unlawful requirement to be vaccinated (given that it is aimed at British Citizens arriving in Britain). This casts doubt over the fitness and propriety of those in the same organisation passing other orders.

---

Edit: would be a second post

Indeed. Incredible they've gone for '3 weeks until review' now too. Do they think we've forgotten how this started? They just don't care.

In any event, they've certainly managed to flatten the morale of the people and completely flatten international travel, perhaps forever.



Yes. We need to panic because there's a risk this variant might evade the vaccines - so very important get your booster vaccine (that the variant might evade). They're just mocking us with this nonsense - they think they can get away with treating us like total fools.



Only three? No-one still thinks it will end with a single 'booster', surely?

Someone has put a pdf of the CDC record card (USA's CDC) online as a pdf file. It has four rows.
See https://web.archive.org/web/2021100...ccine/covid19_vaccination_record_card_cdc.pdf

Link description: pdf file of CDC (USA) Covid-19 vaccine record card.

 

[MikeWM]

Someone has put a pdf of the CDC record card (USA's CDC) online as a pdf file. It has four rows.

I think 4 may be optimistic too! On our current trajectory, at least one every 5 months or so, probably forever?

If the vaccines are indeed 'tweaked' for this new variant, which seems to be the latest 'idea', I wonder what they would give people who so far are entirely unvaccinated? Would we go straight onto the 'improved' one? Would we still 'need' two doses and/or more boosters? Will they do proper clinical trials to determine the answers to those questions? (ok, I know the answer to that last question already...)

 

[Jonny]

I think 4 may be optimistic too! On our current trajectory, at least one every 5 months or so, probably forever?

If the vaccines are indeed 'tweaked' for this new variant, which seems to be the latest 'idea', I wonder what they would give people who so far are entirely unvaccinated? Would we go straight onto the 'improved' one? Would we still 'need' two doses and/or more boosters? Will they do proper clinical trials to determine the answers to those questions? (ok, I know the answer to that last question already...)

I am beginning to suspect that someone ^knew^ something, but beyond what I can prove I have no comment. Frankly, no future boosters would not surprise me but I would not be surprised if there were boosters ^forever^. I also note that some overseas jurisdictions are asking about boosters.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wonder what would happen if the media ignored the Sage members and instead took their quotes from the highly respected medical opinions of the RailUK forum medical supremos....

 

[Scotrail314209]

Omicron symptoms are ‘extremely mild’ says doctor who discovered it

The doctor who discovered Omicron says symptoms from the variant are “extremely mild” and has accused the UK of “panicking unnecessarily”.

www.standard.co.uk

According to the doctor who discovered the new variant, she believes the UK is panicking too much.

Dr Angelique Coetzee, chair of the South African Medical Association, told the programme she first encountered the variant in a man in his early 30s who presented with tiredness and a mild headache, but none of the usual coronavirus symptoms.

She said: “What we are seeing clinically in South Africa, and remember I’m at the epicentre – that’s where I’m practising – it’s extremely mild. For us, that’s mild cases.”

When asked if the UK was “panicking unnecessarily”, she said: “I think you already have it there in your country and you’re not knowing it, and I would say, yes, at this stage I would say definitely.
“Two weeks from now maybe we will say something different.”

 

[Yew]

Omicron symptoms are ‘extremely mild’ says doctor who discovered it

The doctor who discovered Omicron says symptoms from the variant are “extremely mild” and has accused the UK of “panicking unnecessarily”.

www.standard.co.uk

According to the doctor who discovered the new variant, she believes the UK is panicking too much.

Indeed, I'm noticing a surprising number of scientists who don't seem to be overly concerned, and they're not just the usual suspects.

 

[adc82140]

I wonder what would happen if the media ignored the Sage members and instead took their quotes from the highly respected medical opinions of the RailUK forum medical supremos....

It would be nice if the media listened to all the Sage members, rather than the same half dozen of them who have the most far-out opinions. It'd be nice to hear the actual opinion of SAGE as a whole, rather than xtz "speaking in a personal capacity"