Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[yorksrob]

I have a feeling that the most the government will do is go back to the "rule of six" for indoor hospitality, and pointlessly introduce more mask wearing in those places where it is not mandatory. (eg pubs and swimming pools)

Making pubs outdoors only for two, or even four, weeks isn't going to have much of an impact on reducing transmission, especially as January is usually a quiet month for pubs anyway.

I think we may even get away with "strengthened guidance", such as voluntarily limiting the number of people you mix with or going to pubs and hospitality venues at times of the day and days of the week when they are quiet.

This would seem more proportionate to the challenge faced by the health service.

I doubt that SAGE and their ilk would be satisfied though.

 

[21C101]

Yawn.

So yet again some dodgy SAGE "modelling" is released last thing on Christmas Eve in order to try and bounce the government into introducing new restrictions in time for the new year.

They are desperate for a lockdown before the curve peaks and cases start falling so they can claim it was the lockdown wot done it. Otherwise they become a laughing stock along with all the progressive politicians who have been fellow travellers.

Worse, far worse, the hated Tory Brexiteers whos rebellion has stopped any lockdown in England will be vindicated, and Boris will come out of it smelling of Roses.

I am convinced that a lot of people are exploiting Covid as part of an agenda to bring the government down.

 

[duncanp]

Given that most if not all broadcast media companies (including the BBC) derive revenue to a greater or lesser extent from subscription/pay per view TV, which inevitably gets more subscriptions if everyone is under house arrest. I'm wondering whether their hysterical lockdown mongering is wholly coincidental.

Of course their locktivist doom mongering has an ulterior motive.

As you say, the more people are at home, the more people are watching BBC and Locktivist Sky News, and there are more clicks on the associated websites.

There may be an increase in transmission of the virus when schools go back in January, and whilst closing schools would help stop this, it would be politically very difficult to implement, as well as imposing a wholly unacceptable burden on young people, both in terms of their mental health and the effect on their education.

I do think that imposing more restrictions now is too late anyway, as the Omicron variant is sufficiently well seeded in this country that it won't make a lot of difference. Imposing restrictions for a short period of time will only delay transmission of the virus, and there will be an "exit wave" when the restrictions are lifted.

We really have to learn to live with COVID now, which means keeping everything open and doing what we can to reduce transmission of the virus, just as we would with colds and flu.

 

[brad465]

It's amazing how the country that coined the phrase "Keep calm and carry on" is reacting the way we have done.

 

[35B]

They are desperate for a lockdown before the curve peaks and cases start falling so they can claim it was the lockdown wot done it. Otherwise they become a laughing stock along with all the progressive politicians who have been fellow travellers.

One observation. Many people are reducing contacts, going out less and doing less. A Christingle service that normally fills the church (~800) was half full; midnight service similarly quiet. Whatever one’s views on Covid restrictions, the impact of those behavioural changes needs to be allowed for.

It's amazing how the country that coined the phrase "Keep calm and carry on" is reacting the way we have done.

Except that the famous posters were never deployed and the history of the Home Front was much less calm than mythology suggests.

 

[21C101]

One observation. Many people are reducing contacts, going out less and doing less. A Christingle service that normally fills the church (~800) was half full; midnight service similarly quiet. Whatever one’s views on Covid restrictions, the impact of those behavioural changes needs to be allowed for.

No evidence of that in my local church in Bedfordshire. However generally yes. But out of a fear of testing postive and having to isolate over Christmas and having it ruined, not fear of a cold The Coof. So something artificially caused by all the testing.

But, conversely, also evidence that people can be trusted to do the "right thing" without the state imposing regulations.

 

[duncanp]

One observation. Many people are reducing contacts, going out less and doing less. A Christingle service that normally fills the church (~800) was half full; midnight service similarly quiet. Whatever one’s views on Covid restrictions, the impact of those behavioural changes needs to be allowed for.

I think that voluntarily reducing contacts is likely to have the most effect, simply because people are willing to do so, and over a long period of time.

What SAGE and all the other lockdown enthusiasts won't admit is that the effect of restrictions depends on:-

• How strict the restrictions are
• How long the restrictions are in force for
• The degree to which the public comply with the restrictions.

So having "strengthened guidance" between now and the end of March would likely have a greater impact than a two week "circuit breaker" lockdown when everything is closed.

You are correct to say that the impact of behavioural changes needs to be accounted for in the modelling.

I strongly suspect that the SAGE "modelling" does not do this, because to do so would make the figures seem less scary.

 

[Snow1964]

This would seem more proportionate to the challenge faced by the health service.

I doubt that SAGE and their ilk would be satisfied though.

SAGE don’t have to worry about who pays for any reduction in economic activity, they can propose ideas without explaining who (which taxpayers) will ultimately pay for it.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

In amongst the paper dump from SAGE is a Dynamic CO-CIN report on hospitalisation from 1/12/21. Basically this report analyses what happened to patients after admission and shows very clearly a significant drop in hospital stay on Left to the dataset running back to 1/5/21 on the Right.



Have the modellers factored this in to there latest forecasts or are they using historical data.

EDIT: Seemingly not looking at the SPI-M briefing note


Of course what they don't model is the ability of the NHS to keep hospitals staffed which also needs to be factored in.

 

[anthony263]

I'm doing all in my power to ignore these regulations in Wales.i voted against Mr drakeford he is getting very hated in wales

 

[Lampshade]

One observation. Many people are reducing contacts, going out less and doing less. A Christingle service that normally fills the church (~800) was half full; midnight service similarly quiet. Whatever one’s views on Covid restrictions, the impact of those behavioural changes needs to be allowed for.

I was at the pub yesterday afternoon with a few mates, at no point during the afternoon did the total number of people in there, including staff, reach double figures.

 

[52290]

I was at the pub yesterday afternoon with a few mates, at no point during the afternoon did the total number of people in there, including staff, reach double figures.

I was in a village pub yesterday afternoon and it was fairly packed with people eating and drinking. The landlord said they were booked up for today.

 

[adc82140]

Someone on Facebook I know has posted a picture of their negative lateral flow tests with a caption "we are safe to go and see my family". I find this really rather sad. The whole lot of them have been triple jabbed.

If they feel like doing LFTs that's their business, but fancy posting it on Facebook.

 

[21C101]

Someone on Facebook I know has posted a picture of their negative lateral flow tests with a caption "we are safe to go and see my family". I find this really rather sad. The whole lot of them have been triple jabbed.

If they feel like doing LFTs that's their business, but fancy posting it on Facebook.

At my local supermarket they were handing out lateral flow tests yesterday and people were eagerly taking them. Why when you are healthy and vaccinated risk a false positive ruining Christmas?

I would have still had my student kids round for Christmas if they had tested positive (would have driven to London to pick them up instead of letting them get the train though). There are though a good few students self isolating in college halls of residences today who's families won't allow them home for fear of catching it.

I see online reports of kids with it being made to stay in their room and eat or made to wear a mask in the house. People have been really frightened by the propaganda haven't they? As far as I'm concerned that nonsene ends once the front door is shut.

 

[brad465]

At my local supermarket they were handing out lateral flow tests yesterday and people were eagerly taking them. Why when you are healthy and vaccinated risk a false positive ruining Christmas?

I would have still had my student kids round for Christmas if they had tested positive (would have driven to London to pick them up instead of letting them get the train though). There are though a good few students self isolating in college halls of residences today who's families won't allow them home for fear of catching it.

I see online reports of kids with it being made to stay in their room and eat or made to wear a mask in the house. People have been really frightened by the propaganda haven't they? As far as I'm concerned that nonsene ends once the front door is shut.

I'm wondering how long before the penny drops that all these tests are bad for the environment? The kits are loaded with single use plastics (so much for Attenborough's Blue Planet 2 effect), and they're shipped all the way from China.

 

[102 fan]

I'm wondering how long before the penny drops that all these tests are bad for the environment? The kits are loaded with single use plastics (so much for Attenborough's Blue Planet 2 effect), and they're shipped all the way from China.

Two years ago plastic was the Antichrist, now it's in abundance in shops and businesses, absolved of everything. Common sense, green issues and disability legislation have all taken a back seat.

 

[21C101]

Two years ago plastic was the Antichrist, now it's in abundance in shops and businesses, absolved of everything. Common sense, green issues and disability legislation have all taken a back seat.

When they revert to fretting about this after Covid hopefully the public will be a bit less receptive to computer models promising doom. Especially after they get their easter electric and gas bills...

And on the subject of plastic, I read that bacteria have evolved in the sea that are happily eating all the plastic waste. So of course rather than rejoicing that their taxpayer funded worrying was unneccesary they are now fretting about what happens when the food chain eats said bacteria....

 

[dave87016]

To be fair to the public , a lot of city centres have been quiet and deserted over the last few days or so and pubs etc have been quieter than they would be , this is because people are being cautious , prioritising events and who they see over the festive period in order to try and prevent further restrictions in the coming weeks if the goverment impose restrictions as mentioned above then their efforts were in vain

As I said repeatedly we need to learn to live with covid and the only SAGE boris should have this Christmas is stuffing and not listening to the numbers bandied about by the scaremongers and so called expert modellers

 

[brad465]

The Sunday Telegraph are certainly working to try and make imposing restrictions in the next week and beyond difficult, with a front page tomorrow accusing Jenny Harries of using dodgy data to push for tighter restrictions:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

 

[21C101]

The Sunday Telegraph are certainly working to try and make imposing restrictions in the next week and beyond difficult, with a front page tomorrow accusing Jenny Harries of using dodgy data to push for tighter restrictions:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

View attachment 107618

Good for them. These wannabe technocratic dictators need to be removed from their perches so nothing like 2020 and 2021 EVER happens again.

Importantly this will be read by every tory backbencher and lockdown sceptical cabinet member, making it impossible for Boris to pass further regulations without making his position untenable. (which regulations opposed by the majority of Tory MPs but passed by Labour would do).

 

[Drogba11CFC]

One of my Christmas presents is the book "Stop Bloody Bossing Me About" by Quentin Letts. Words to live by.

 

[duncanp]

Good for them. These wannabe technocratic dictators need to be removed from their perches so nothing like 2020 and 2021 EVER happens again.

Importantly this will be read by every tory backbencher and lockdown sceptical cabinet member, making it impossible for Boris to pass further regulations without making his position untenable. (which regulations opposed by the majority of Tory MPs but passed by Labour would do).

A read of the article shows that Dr Harries was using data on the lag between infection and hospitalisation that was nearly a year old, before the emergence of the Omicron variant.

The figure caused bemusement among some analysts and clinicians. It now transpires that it was a “generous” estimate provided by Dr Harries and rooted in studies that all pre-dated omicron.

It seems that the pro lockdown brigade are trying to pretend that the lag between infection and hospitalisation is longer than it really is, in order to try and justify new restrictions, because the "tsunami" of hospitalisations isn't quite as big as they predicted. In other words, they are worried that the data will start to improve before any new restrictions are imposed, which will mean that restrictions are more difficult to justify.

 

[3rd rail land]

As I said repeatedly we need to learn to live with covid and the only SAGE boris should have this Christmas is stuffing and not listening to the numbers bandied about by the scaremongers and so called expert modellers

My thoughts exactly especially as there is evidence that additional restrictions in Wales and Scotland didn't have the desired effect. If people wish to be cautious they can stay at home all the time, wear a face covering whenever they aren't at home or whatever else they wish to do but let everyone else lead a normal restriction free life.

 

[Typhoon]

I'm sorry if it has already been raised but:

Door-to-door teams armed with Covid jabs will be sent to the homes of unvaccinated Britons in plans being considered by Ministers to reach the estimated five million people yet to be inoculated.

Discussions between the Department of Health, NHS England and No 10 over the past week have looked at a nationwide drive to send vaccine teams to areas with low uptake rates as a crucial way to avoid lockdown and other restrictions.

It is also seen as a way to get jabs to rural areas or households where people cannot easily get to a vaccination centre.

One Cabinet Minister last night backed the plan, saying: 'I think anything that encourages the vaccine-hesitant is sensible,' before warning: 'The mood in the country is hardening against people who refuse to be vaccinated.

This, to me - a fully vaccinated person - is a leap too far. By all means invite the unvaccinated to contact 119 and ask medical staff to call on them if they are unable to get to a centre but to pressure people to have it done like this is way out of order, in my book. It will undoubtedly cause conflict between the medical staff and some residents.

It may be some left-field idea from some Under Secretary of State desperately seeking publicity but Ministers need to knock this on the head, and soon. There has been enough strife following Brexit without rumours like this.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...unvaccinated-britons/ar-AAS8WxU?ocid=msedgntp

At my local supermarket they were handing out lateral flow tests yesterday and people were eagerly taking them.

Bl@@dy hell, you can't get them for love nor money round my neck of the woods. The windows of every pharmacy I have passed in the last week have been plastered with signs - no tests available, They are unreliable in any case, yesterday I was told of an elderly man who was visited by a relative who had tested negative with lateral flow - the elderly man is now seriously in hospital with Covid, the relative took a proper test - positive.

 

[Watershed]

This, to me - a fully vaccinated person - is a leap too far. By all means invite the unvaccinated to contact 119 and ask medical staff to call on them if they are unable to get to a centre but to pressure people to have it done like this is way out of order, in my book. It will undoubtedly cause conflict between the medical staff and some residents.

It may be some left-field idea from some Under Secretary of State desperately seeking publicity but Ministers need to knock this on the head, and soon. There has been enough strife following Brexit without rumours like this.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/ukne...unvaccinated-britons/ar-AAS8WxU?ocid=msedgntp

If they're specifically visiting unvaccinated people, I'd have concerns about whether that is a justified use of personal data. Probably legally OK, but very much on the border in my view.

 

[Furryanimal]

The Sunday Telegraph are certainly working to try and make imposing restrictions in the next week and beyond difficult, with a front page tomorrow accusing Jenny Harries of using dodgy data to push for tighter restrictions:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

View attachment 107618

Unfortunately such dodgy data has us under restrictions in Wales.....I won’t be watching rugby or concerts for a while.
I would like to think common sense will prevail at the next review but I don’t trust Drakeford to change anything.
Interestingly St.Davids Hall have only cancelled their events up to January 16th at the moment.
Mine is on January 27th...so fingers crossed.
Will be ridiculous if Wales have no crowds at the Six Nations in Cardiff but play before a capacity one at Twickenham.

 

[johntea]

Just had a text come through on my phone…shocking really how the government can just click their fingers and make the mobile network operators bend over backwards for them

NHSbooster
GET BOOSTED NOW
Every adult needs a COVID-19 booster vaccine to protect against Omicron.
Get your COVID-19 vaccine or booster. See NHS website for details

 

[seagull]

Also inaccurate, you don't "need" a booster to protect against Omicron, it just (allegedly) helps give a bit extra compared to the vaccine alone. I've even heard horrible rumours that many people actually survived Covid before vaccines came along, too.

I was one of them...

 

[3rd rail land]

Just had a text come through on my phone…shocking really how the government can just click their fingers and make the mobile network operators bend over backwards for them

NHSbooster
GET BOOSTED NOW
Every adult needs a COVID-19 booster vaccine to protect against Omicron.
Get your COVID-19 vaccine or booster. See NHS website for details

I got this text as well. This is just scaremongering tactics. I am perfectly satisfied with the level of protection my initial 2 jabs are giving me and I have no plans to get the booster shot any time soon, if at all.

On a related note has anyone else heard that Israel is rolling out a 2nd booster for over 60s? Is there no end in sight from these wretched vaccines?

 

[duncanp]

On a related note has anyone else heard that Israel is rolling out a 2nd booster for over 60s? Is there no end in sight from these wretched vaccines?

If we have to keep getting "boosted" every 6 months or so, we have to question whether the NHS has the capacity to do this, as well as providing all the other routine treatments it is supposed to provide.

The answer is no, so NHS capacity will either have to be increased (eg. by pharmacies doing vaccinations - as happens with flu) or there will have to be permanent reductions in the range of treatments provided by the NHS, as well as increases in waiting times.

This is happening already, of course, but it is one thing if these changes are temporary and quite another thing if they are permanent.