Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[nw1]

But the "...SAGE scientists..." haven't yet realised the same thing, nor have Locktivist Sky News.

They are now warning of an "..Omicron Exit Wave.." in the summer once all restrictions are scrapped, with between 1,000 and 2,000 hospitalisations every day.

Given how well Omicron spreads even with restrictions, that does not sound at all likely. Maybe there will be a minor 'Plan B exit wave' in early February, but surely not the summer. They say it will be a result of 'resuming social activities'. People aren't going to wait for the summer to do this. Surely indoor social activities are more likely to spread it, and indoor activities are more likely in what remains of the winter, i.e. February and perhaps March depending on the weather. In the spring and summer, from the end of March onwards certainly, people will do more outside - hence less spread. I'd like to see these points put to SAGE.

And why the summer, when viral illnesses typically trough anyhow?

 

[Bantamzen]

But the "...SAGE scientists..." haven't yet realised the same thing, nor have Locktivist Sky News.

They are now warning of an "..Omicron Exit Wave.." in the summer once all restrictions are scrapped, with between 1,000 and 2,000 hospitalisations every day.

Put a <expletive deleted> sock in it will you.

Over the past two years we have had just about as much as we can take of your scaremongering, inaccurate so called "modelling" and your downright lies.

No-one is listening to you any more.

COVID-19: Omicron 'exit wave' possible in the summer, scientists say

Early data has shown Omicron to be a milder form of COVID-19, but that does not mean everyone can relax as hospital admissions are yet to peak, the scientists say.

news.sky.com

I think the real exit wave they are concerned about is the one they will get from ministers as they are shown out of the door....

 

[danm14]

The Telegraph does say that "..some rules on face masks may remain..",but even if they do, I wouldn't worry because compliance and enforcement is going to drop off a cliff, especially after the latest revelations about "wine Fridays" at Downing street right throughout the pandemic.

Restrictions are over in all but name.

I sincerely hope that if some "rules" on face masks do remain, that it is at worst a return to them being "expected and recommended but not legally required" as they were in the second half of 2021.

By contrast, mandatory face masks and domestic vaccine passports are no longer considered restrictions in Ireland, they are now the status quo and there is no plan to remove them.

 

[Dent]

The Telegraph does say that "..some rules on face masks may remain..",but even if they do, I wouldn't worry because compliance and enforcement is going to drop off a cliff, especially after the latest revelations about "wine Fridays" at Downing street right throughout the pandemic.

Restrictions are over in all but name.

The face mask rules are part of the Plan B legislation, which legally expires on the 26th.

 

[farleigh]

I think the real exit wave they are concerned about is the one they will get from ministers as they are shown out of the door....

Very good

 

[duncanp]

By contrast, mandatory face masks and domestic vaccine passports are no longer considered restrictions in Ireland, they are now the status quo and there is no plan to remove them.

This is what we absolutely must fight against.

There are plenty of people in the UK who would be quite happy for mandatory face masks and vaccine passports to become part of the "new normal". (I'm looking at YOU Nicola Sturgeon and Mark Drakeford)

 

[Mag_seven]

By contrast, mandatory face masks and domestic vaccine passports are no longer considered restrictions in Ireland, they are now the status quo and there is no plan to remove them.

Can you provide a link to that - that's very disturbing if true.

 

[davetheguard]

I sincerely hope that if some "rules" on face masks do remain, that it is at worst a return to them being "expected and recommended but not legally required" as they were in the second half of 2021.

By contrast, mandatory face masks and domestic vaccine passports are no longer considered restrictions in Ireland, they are now the status quo and there is no plan to remove them.

Makes mental note never to visit Ireland again unless that changes.....

 

[danm14]

Can you provide a link to that - that's very disturbing if true.

Phased reopening on the cards from February - but only if ICU numbers remain stable

The number of patients in critical care will be the key metric government looks at over the next two weeks.

www.thejournal.ie

Senior ministers agree that it is “too soon” to ease restrictions right now, as they need to wait and see how the ICU numbers fare in the next two weeks.

But if all goes well, and those numbers remain stable, it is understood that expectations are that restrictions will be eased on a phased basis.

Government hopes to “step back” to where the country was prior to the latest restrictions being brought in, returning closing time for pubs and restaurants to 11pm first, and then two to three weeks later rolling the country back to the restrictions that were in place on 22 October, which would include nightclubs re-opening.

Following that, two to three weeks later, the plan is to drop everything else – other than mask wearing in indoor public areas and Covid passes, sources said.

No reopening plan for Ireland has ever included the removal of masks, including the abandoned October 22nd, 2021 date which was described by Government as the "final" removal of restrictions.

An Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Micheal Martin, has also stated that booster doses will be required to access hospitality "in the fullness of time", suggesting that vaccine passports are to remain long term, although they were set to be removed on the abandoned October 22nd, 2021 date.

 

[nw1]

Phased reopening on the cards from February - but only if ICU numbers remain stable

The number of patients in critical care will be the key metric government looks at over the next two weeks.

www.thejournal.ie

No reopening plan for Ireland has ever included the removal of masks, including the abandoned October 22nd, 2021 date which was described by Government as the "final" removal of restrictions.

An Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Micheal Martin, has also stated that booster doses will be required to access hospitality "in the fullness of time", suggesting that vaccine passports are to remain long term, although they were set to be removed on the abandoned October 22nd, 2021 date.

The question is, why? If Omicron is peaking now and will be on the way down in the coming weeks, why do we need long-term vaccine passports? Why will Ireland need vaccine passports for hospitality in the spring and summer when they do not now, and presumably case rates will be much lower in spring and summer than now? The possibility of more dangerous future mutations (which would go against the general trend of successive mutations thus far)?

 

[Ian1971]

Can you provide a link to that - that's very disturbing if true.

I don’t know why you are worry about the truth of posts now given the amazing amount of misinformation posted in this tread

 

[danm14]

The question is, why?

Because it's a popular policy. The majority of Ireland want the opportunity to show that they are not "one of them" as frequently as possible.

A recent poll showed that 67% of the Irish public believe that harsher restrictions for the unvaccinated are necessary.

The unvaccinated are already barred from all indoor hospitality, cinemas, theatres, gyms and leisure centres; and de facto banned from all indoor events, as harsh social distancing and limits on numbers apply to events which don't check proof of vaccination. No medical exemptions are accepted for any reason whatsoever, and a negative test is not accepted in lieu.

They are also barred from a growing number of businesses who have chosen to bar them without being legally required to do so - for example in my hometown most hair and beauty salons and every optician other than Specsavers.

 

[yorkie]

I don’t know why you are worry about the truth of posts now given the amazing amount of misinformation posted in this tread

Can you point to misinformation on this thread?

Edit: I found this misinformation...

When proof is given, if masks don’t work then why do hospital staff all wear them in surgical situations to prevent them infecting their patients

...and it was corrected; is there anything else?

The question is, why? If Omicron is peaking now and will be on the way down in the coming weeks, why do we need long-term vaccine passports? Why will Ireland need vaccine passports for hospitality in the spring and summer when they do not now, and presumably case rates will be much lower in spring and summer than now? The possibility of more dangerous future mutations (which would go against the general trend of successive mutations thus far)?

Sooner or later everyone will have been exposed to the virus, rendering vaccine passports pointless.

The virus will continue to evolve regardless. Even if we could vaccinate all humans, which we can't, we can't vaccinate all the other animals that can get it.

 

[philosopher]

The unvaccinated are already barred from all indoor hospitality, cinemas, theatres, gyms and leisure centres; and de facto banned from all indoor events, as harsh social distancing and limits on numbers apply to events which don't check proof of vaccination. No medical exemptions are accepted for any reason whatsoever, and a negative test is not accepted in lieu.

The no medical exemptions are accepted sounds pretty disturbing, some people are effectively cut out from society out of no choice of their own, for example if you have a severe needle phobia.

I am surprised such a rule has not been ruled discriminatory by the courts in Ireland.

 

[102 fan]

Because it's a popular policy. The majority of Ireland want the opportunity to show that they are not "one of them" as frequently as possible.

A recent poll showed that 67% of the Irish public believe that harsher restrictions for the unvaccinated are necessary.

The unvaccinated are already barred from all indoor hospitality, cinemas, theatres, gyms and leisure centres; and de facto banned from all indoor events, as harsh social distancing and limits on numbers apply to events which don't check proof of vaccination. No medical exemptions are accepted for any reason whatsoever, and a negative test is not accepted in lieu.

They are also barred from a growing number of businesses who have chosen to bar them without being legally required to do so - for example in my hometown most hair and beauty salons and every optician other than Specsavers.

Replace unvaccinated with Jewish or coloured, and that policy sounds frighteningly sinister.

 

[brad465]

Replace unvaccinated with Jewish or coloured, and that policy sounds frighteningly sinister.

This is an argument I strongly believe in, but have avoided, for two reasons: firstly, because of Godwin's law, and secondly, because when I've seen others try that argument, while they haven't dismissed it under the aforementioned law of internet arguments, they've argued that the logic doesn't apply because vaccination status isn't a race/nationality/religion/etc, and people can choose on this issue. However, what they don't realise is the same principles apply: the othering/marginalising of a section of a society because of a particular status they have about them, in order to ensure the whole population are distracted from whatever their Government is up to, whether that's an authoritarian power grab, distraction from domestic policy failures, or something else. Besides, even if discrimination by vaccine status is not comparable to religion/race/etc., there's always a first for everything.

The argument I've used that has tended to fair better is one or both of the following: 1) The unvaccinated are being made an enemy to distract from mainstream political failures, with some further explanation that doesn't involve anything from the 1930s. 2) Be careful what you wish for, populists like to exploit the grievances of a marginalised group in society in pursuit of power, something the far right Freedom Party in Austria are trying to do as a genuine example. This could help them in pursuit of power, which history shows doesn't end well. (While that last sentence sort of refers to examples of religion or colour, I've not stated any particular one deliberately)

 

[102 fan]

This is an argument I strongly believe in, but have avoided, for two reasons: firstly, because of Godwin's law, and secondly, because when I've seen others try that argument, while they haven't dismissed it under the aforementioned law of internet arguments, they've argued that the logic doesn't apply because vaccination status isn't a race/nationality/religion/etc, and people can choose on this issue. However, what they don't realise is the same principles apply: the othering/marginalising of a section of a society because of a particular status they have about them, in order to ensure the whole population are distracted from whatever their Government is up to, whether that's an authoritarian power grab, distraction from domestic policy failures, or something else. Besides, even if discrimination by vaccine status is not comparable to religion/race/etc., there's always a first for everything.

The argument I've used that has tended to fair better is one or both of the following: 1) The unvaccinated are being made an enemy to distract from mainstream political failures, with some further explanation that doesn't involve anything from the 1930s. 2) Be careful what you wish for, populists like to exploit the grievances of a marginalised group in society in pursuit of power, something the far right Freedom Party in Austria are trying to do as a genuine example. This could help them in pursuit of power, which history shows doesn't end well. (While that last sentence sort of refers to examples of religion or colour, I've not stated any particular one deliberately)

And the reverse, mandatory vaccination in all but name is equally bad. The whole thing stinks, but very few can smell it.

 

[Jimini]

And the reverse, mandatory vaccination in all but name is equally bad. The whole thing stinks, but very few can smell it.

Maybe they’ve got Covid

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

NHS England covid patients in mechanical ventilation down again today at 608 last below this level on 21st Jul 21.

 

[island]

A recent poll showed that 67% of the Irish public believe that harsher restrictions for the unvaccinated are necessary.

The poll that will tell the real story is the next general election, though that's not due till 2025.

 

[21C101]

Makes mental note never to visit Ireland again unless that changes.....

You mean Southern Ireland. Northern Ireland is still free.

And many in NI are refusing to have anything to do with masks or testing, even when they attend hospital.

"Doctors in Northern Ireland have expressed concern at the increasing number of patients and hospital visitors who are not wearing masks.

The BMA said there were also more people refusing to take Covid-19 tests before coming for hospital appointments or when attending emergency departments.


Dr David Farren, deputy chair of BMA Northern Ireland's consultants committee, said staff were facing aggressive behaviour when they challenged non-compliance"

www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/belfast-news/increasing-number-patients-refusing-wear-21318030

 

[danm14]

You mean Southern Ireland. Northern Ireland is still free.

Freer.

It's far from free compared to England; or even Scotland or Wales.

 

[bramling]

The Telegraph does say that "..some rules on face masks may remain..",but even if they do, I wouldn't worry because compliance and enforcement is going to drop off a cliff, especially after the latest revelations about "wine Fridays" at Downing street right throughout the pandemic.

Restrictions are over in all but name.

Mask use on LU is already declining again. It had gone up from the pre-Omicron 50% which has been the case for some months, but is now very visibly declining again, despite some uptick in the level of enforcement.

The Khan army were in force at Euston yesterday. I got a “Can you put your mask on please” upon entering the station, the wording of which irritates me as I don’t own a mask, and is rather reminiscent of speaking to minors. I gave an assertive reply, and continued my journey with no issues.

 

[21C101]

Freer.

It's far from free compared to England; or even Scotland or Wales.

True, but I doubt the measures will last (unlike Southern Ireland where they seem to be permanent) and also unlike Southern Ireland many are refusing to compy (see newspaper article in my edit above)

Mask use on LU is already declining again. It had gone up from the pre-Omicron 50% which has been the case for some months, but is now very visibly declining again, despite some uptick in the level of enforcement.

The Khan army were in force at Euston yesterday. I got a “Can you put your mask on please” upon entering the station, the wording of which irritates me as I don’t own a mask, and is rather reminiscent of speaking to minors. I gave an assertive reply, and continued my journey with no issues.

Even some of the BTP were not wearing masks in Luton Station today.

 

[102 fan]

You mean Southern Ireland. Northern Ireland is still free.

And many in NI are refusing to have anything to do with masks or testing, even when they attend hospital.

"Doctors in Northern Ireland have expressed concern at the increasing number of patients and hospital visitors who are not wearing masks.

The BMA said there were also more people refusing to take Covid-19 tests before coming for hospital appointments or when attending emergency departments.


Dr David Farren, deputy chair of BMA Northern Ireland's consultants committee, said staff were facing aggressive behaviour when they challenged non-compliance"

www.belfastlive.co.uk/news/belfast-news/increasing-number-patients-refusing-wear-21318030

A surprising but welcome dose of common sense from my Countrymen!

 

[brad465]

The Sunday Express seem to be backing up what The Telegraph had on their front page with a front page about all covid restrictions ending in 10 days, according to a senior government source, the difference here though is the tabloid nature of the Daily/Sunday Express means there maybe a bit more technicality than just "all rules ditched:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

 

[Stephen42]

Given how well Omicron spreads even with restrictions, that does not sound at all likely. Maybe there will be a minor 'Plan B exit wave' in early February, but surely not the summer. They say it will be a result of 'resuming social activities'. People aren't going to wait for the summer to do this. Surely indoor social activities are more likely to spread it, and indoor activities are more likely in what remains of the winter, i.e. February and perhaps March depending on the weather. In the spring and summer, from the end of March onwards certainly, people will do more outside - hence less spread. I'd like to see these points put to SAGE.

And why the summer, when viral illnesses typically trough anyhow?

Many seasonal viral illnesses can peak in summer if behaviour patterns are different to usual, the RSV hopsital admission peak last year was in August rather than winter. While indoors/outdoors makes some difference, last year many people particularly in older age groups increased their social/work activity more gradually which could be a larger factor. The media story is quite selective and the report itself doesn't suggest reading too much into the early projections.

... these show an ‘exit’ wave due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity. Precise timing and magnitude of this exit wave is highly dependent on both population behaviour and the scale of the current wave and cannot be predicted with any certainty.

Can you point to misinformation on this thread?

Edit: I found this misinformation...

...and it was corrected; is there anything else?

Even with good intentions it's easy to post things that are inaccurate, for example your next post after the one you quoted included "Around 80% of English hospital admissions with coronavirus are admitted for other reasons":

John Campbell remains upbeat:

That's not true as the video misinteprets a Telegraph article which is talking about new additional patients (i.e. increase in figures) rather than all new admissions. Additional patients won't be distributed the same as new admissions and will be impacted by stay length which admissions won't. Data released subsequently still has the current proportion of incidental patients well below 80%.

As such it's a good idea to consider that not everything posted on here is correct or will eventually be corrected and can come from sources you trust.

 

[DerekC]

So Boris is preparing his "Hero of the Pandemic" appearance. I hope everyone remembers that he gambled three times. The first two occasions he lost (or rather a lot of other people lost). The third occasion the chips seem to have fallen right for him, but that doesn't bring the unnecessary deaths from the first two back to life.

 

[Bantamzen]

So Boris is preparing his "Hero of the Pandemic" appearance. I hope everyone remembers that he gambled three times. The first two occasions he lost (or rather a lot of other people lost). The third occasion the chips seem to have fallen right for him, but that doesn't bring the unnecessary deaths from the first two back to life.

I hate to be the one to break it to you, but viruses don't pay much attention to political decisions. They spread regardless of whatever measures politicians think they can implement to stop them, and this can be demonstrated the world over. Even the zero-covid chasing countries are finding this out. I'm no fan of the clown that is BoJo, but he is far from alone on the list of politicians who could not stop the virus.

 

[yorkie]

So Boris is preparing his "Hero of the Pandemic" appearance. I hope everyone remembers that he gambled three times. The first two occasions he lost (or rather a lot of other people lost).

Are you suggesting we should have remained in lockdown for even longer? Can you elaborate what exactly you mean by this?

The third occasion the chips seem to have fallen right for him, but that doesn't bring the unnecessary deaths from the first two back to life.

Perhaps you can state how you would have avoided deaths; presumably by locking down for a very long period of time. There is no way people would accept that. When you release measures, the virus has not gone away and you will see an increase in cases.

The only way out of the epidemic is for a sufficient number of people to have good enough immunity that we can live with the virus in a state of equilibrium.

Omicron is so much fitter and more contagious, along with being milder, it really makes no sense to delay the onset of endemic equilibrium.