Following the original thread from 5 months ago ( https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/reliance-on-this-covid-19-vaccine.203619/ ) it has become clear that we are completely reliant on a vaccine, at least with our current strategy.
As a forum member pointed out to me on Monday, this has now been confirmed by Matt Hancock:
So if the vaccine is delayed, it remains yet to be seen whether or not the current strategy will persist. But the longer it goes on for, they will become more and more reluctant to change course.
Whether this is a sensible course or not is highly debatable; a forum member sent me a link to an interview with two US public health experts about the USA's response to Covid-19, and raises some very good points; a key extract related to the above point is:
Other pertinent points from the interview include:
As a forum member pointed out to me on Monday, this has now been confirmed by Matt Hancock:
Covid-19 Update - Hansard - UK Parliament
Hansard record of the item : 'Covid-19 Update' on Monday 19 October 2020.
hansard.parliament.uk
Matt Hancock said:While, of course, no vaccine technology is certain, we must be prepared to deploy a vaccine as soon as one is safely available.
Matt Hancock said:There are three vaccine trials under way in the UK: the AstraZeneca trial, which is frequently discussed; the Imperial College trial; and a trial of the Novavax vaccine. The period of the trial is dependent on the clinical results and on the data. Of course, of those three, the AstraZeneca trial is the most advanced and is in phase 3 trials. We are closely in contact with all of them to ensure that they get the support they need
Matt Hancock said:We are doing everything in our power to suppress the virus, support the economy, support education and support the NHS until a vaccine is available. That is the right strategy, charting a path that allows for the greatest economic and social freedom while protecting life.
So if the vaccine is delayed, it remains yet to be seen whether or not the current strategy will persist. But the longer it goes on for, they will become more and more reluctant to change course.
Whether this is a sensible course or not is highly debatable; a forum member sent me a link to an interview with two US public health experts about the USA's response to Covid-19, and raises some very good points; a key extract related to the above point is:
We Need a Radically Different Approach to the Pandemic and Our Economy as a Whole
We talk to two public health experts about America's COVID-19 response and how poor households have borne a disproportionate share of the pandemic's hardship. We need to urgently fight for a more just society.
jacobinmag.com
This quote is from Katherine Yih, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School.Katherine Yih said:I don’t think it’s wise or warranted to keep society locked down until vaccines become available.
Other pertinent points from the interview include:
... It is the country’s poor and working-class households, particularly those with children, who have borne a disproportionate share of the burden. ...
...Progressives need to reject the unquestioning lockdown approach, which is simply inappropriate unless and until hospitals and other health care facilities are in danger of being overwhelmed. We need to be scrupulous about protecting the elderly and other high-risk groups. Others should be permitted to go about their business and keep society functioning...
...I think the lockdown is the worst assault on the working class in half a century, and especially on the urban working class. In effect, we are protecting low-risk college students and young professionals who can work from home at the expense of older, high-risk, working-class people that have no choice but to work, leading to more deaths overall. There have been studies, for example in Toronto, that show that lockdowns have primarily protected high-income, low-minority neighborhoods, but not low-income or high-minority neighborhoods...
(in the USA they must have a different meaning of the term "liberal" as most people in the UK who I know who describe themselves as "liberal" are against lockdowns)...Yes, the discussion of COVID-19 policy has become polarized into two camps, with most liberals advocating some form of lockdown and people on the Right arguing to open up..