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Oxford Vaccine phase three trial suggests it's highly effective with up to 90% protection

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AdamWW

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I suspect we will be told restrictions have to stay in place for a year or two while everyone gets the vaccine.

Even then, we are likely to be told that there are huge benefits to retaining the restrictions, such as lower flu numbers or some such nonsense.

I really don't think there will be an end to this - the government have seized almost all our civil liberties and now have complete control over our lives. They can, and are, granting and withdrawing freedoms on whim. The public are lapping it up and demanding more of it. The government are not going to let this go any time soon, no matter what the outcome.

I don't share your view. What makes you think that the government is likely to do this? It does not seem at all consistent with what Mr Johnson's views appear to be. (And given how many people are already not complying, it's only going to get worse as people see less and less need for restrictions, so unless the government is prepared to put the Army on the streets or take some other drastic action I don't see how this works).

They reckon about 60% for herd immunity. Some people are probably immune already but it may be easier to do everyone than to work out who doesn't need it. There's also the issue that immunity may not last very long, so we could be needing to repeat the process.

60-80% for herd immunity for a vaccine which prevents everyone given it from becoming contagious, and with no existing immunity in the community.

Both probably not the case (but both acting in opposite directions).
 
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I suspect we will be told restrictions have to stay in place for a year or two while everyone gets the vaccine.

Even then, we are likely to be told that there are huge benefits to retaining the restrictions, such as lower flu numbers or some such nonsense.

I really don't think there will be an end to this - the government have seized almost all our civil liberties and now have complete control over our lives. They can, and are, granting and withdrawing freedoms on whim. The public are lapping it up and demanding more of it. The government are not going to let this go any time soon, no matter what the outcome.

Social distancing restrictions in place for another year or two?? You must be joking!

The country is in a mess now because of this, but if this continues for as long as another year or two then this country will be absolutely wrecked. Thousands upon thousands of job cuts, thousands upon thousands more people unemployed(and close to zero chance of finding another job), hundreds or even thousands more companies closing down, plus the effect on many people's mental health. It's unsustainable and madness for this to continue for too much longer now.

The restrictions will soon have to be lifted so the economy can start to recover and everyone can start getting back to a more normal life again.

Boris himself has said that providing cases and deaths continue to fall, that it may MAY be possible to scrap social distancing altogether from November at the earliest. I am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt on this, but hope it will be no later than November.

I previously thought this would drag on into sometime next year at the earliest. But am somewhat more confident now that just over 3 months now, social distancing will at last be gone. We just need to have some patience in the meantime though.
 
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Huntergreed

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Social distancing restrictions in place for another year or two?? You must be joking! The country is in a mess now because of this, but if this continues for as long as another year or two then this country will be absolutely wrecked. Thousands upon thousands of job cuts, thousands upon thousands more people unemployed(and close to zero chance of finding another job), hundreds or even thousands more companies closing down, plus the effect on many people's mental health. It's unsustainable and madness for this to continue for too much longer now. The restrictions will soon have to be lifted so the economy can start to recover and everyone can start getting back to a more normal life again. Boris himself has said that providing cases and deaths continue to fall, that it may MAY be possible to scrap social distancing altogether from November at the earliest. I am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt on this, but hope it will be no later than November. I previously thought this would drag on into sometime next year at the earliest. But am somewhat more confident now that just over 3 months now, social distancing will at last be gone. We just need to have some patience in the meantime though.
I agree, but the majority want restrictions to continue well into 2021, as they feel November is not safe (and that includes the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser).

I just wish the economic impact of this crisis was as well documented as the Covid side. If we announced daily unemployment rates, business closures, how concerned we really are, I bet people wouldn’t still be screaming for these restrictions to stay for years to come.
 

Bantamzen

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I agree, but the majority want restrictions to continue well into 2021, as they feel November is not safe (and that includes the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Scientific Adviser).

I just wish the economic impact of this crisis was as well documented as the Covid side. If we announced daily unemployment rates, business closures, how concerned we really are, I bet people wouldn’t still be screaming for these restrictions to stay for years to come.

What a good idea.

"Good afternoon, today we are sorry to announce the sad passing of a few more people who may, or may not have been killed as a result of covid, and another couple of hundred laboratory confirmed (at least we think they are) cases. Oh, and several thousand people were chucked onto the dole."

I can foresee a slight problem with this....
 

MattA7

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I believe that there was already rumors that the government were claiming even a vaccine and treatments may not be enough.

Going a bit off topic Personally I fear we will never see normality as it was in feb 2020. There will probably be groups of “Covid extremists” who will insist on social distancing and the other restrictions until the virus is eradicated from the world and the government will pander to those people because it benefits them in the long run.
 

AdamWW

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Going a bit off topic Personally I fear we will never see normality as it was in feb 2020. There will probably be groups of “Covid extremists” who will insist on social distancing and the other restrictions until the virus is eradicated from the world and the government will pander to those people because it benefits them in the long run.

So long as they want to lose the next election...

Back on vaccines - obviously something which gives 100% protection from becoming infected for ever would be ideal.

But something which kept people infectious but hugely reduced the severity of symptoms would be a lot better than nothing - though not so good for anyone vulnurable who can't have the vaccine for any reason.
 

Mag_seven

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Can we stick to the topic of developments in the Oxford Vaccine trial please. If anyone wants to discuss anything else then they are welcome to start a new thread.
 

Bantamzen

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Unfortunately the Oxford trial has been paused as one test subject has fallen ill.


Final clinical trials for a coronavirus vaccine, developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University, have been put on hold after a participant had an adverse reaction in the UK.

AstraZeneca described it as a "routine" pause in the case of "an unexplained illness".

The outcome of vaccine trials is being closely watched around the world.

The AstraZeneca-Oxford University vaccine is seen as a strong contender among dozens being developed globally.

  • How close to developing a vaccine are we?
  • What drugs can help treat coronavirus?
Hopes have been high that the vaccine might be one of the first to come on the market, following successful phase 1 and 2 testing.

Its move to Phase 3 testing in recent weeks has involved some 30,000 participants in the US as well as in the UK, Brazil and South Africa. Phase 3 trials in vaccines often involve thousands of participants and can last several years.

What have the developers said?
All international trial sites have now been put on pause while an independent investigation reviews the safety data before regulators decide whether the trial can restart, the BBC's Medical Editor Fergus Walsh reports.

"In large trials, illnesses will happen by chance but must be independently reviewed to check this carefully", an Oxford University spokesperson said.

This is the second time the Oxford coronavirus vaccine trial has been put on hold, our correspondent notes. Such events are routine in major trials, and happen any time a volunteer is admitted to hospital when the cause of their illness is not immediately apparent.

It is thought the trials could resume in a matter of days.

Stat News, the health website which first broke the story, said details of the UK participant's adverse reaction were not immediately known, but quoted a source as saying they were expected to recover.

Where are we in the search for a vaccine?
US President Donald Trump has said he wants a vaccine available in the US before 3 November's election, but his comments have raised fears that politics may be prioritised over safety in the rush for a vaccine.

On Tuesday, a group of nine Covid-19 vaccine developers sought to reassure the public by announcing a "historic pledge" to uphold scientific and ethical standards in the search for a vaccine.

AstraZeneca is among the nine firms who signed up to the pledge to only apply for regulatory approval after vaccines have gone through three phases of clinical study.

Industry giants Johnson & Johnson, BioNTech, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Merk, Moderna, Sanofi and Novavax are the other signatories.

They pledged to "always make the safety and well-being of vaccinated individuals our top priority".

  • Short cuts and 'dirty tricks' in the scramble for a vaccine
  • How will the world vaccinate seven billion people?
The World Health Organization (WHO) says nearly 180 vaccine candidates are being tested around the world but none has yet completed clinical trials.

The organisation has said it does not expect a vaccine to meet its efficacy and safety guidelines in order to be approved this year because of the time it takes to test them safely.

Similar sentiments have been shared by Thomas Cueni, director-general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers. The industry body represents the companies that signed the pledge.

Despite this, China and Russia have begun inoculating some key workers with domestically developed vaccines. All of them are still listed by the WHO as being in clinical trials.

Meanwhile, the US national regulator, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), has suggested that coronavirus vaccines may be approved before completing a third phase of clinical trials.

Last week it also emerged that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had urged states to consider waiving certain requirements in order to be ready to distribute a potential vaccine by 1 November - two days before the 3 November presidential election.

Although President Trump has hinted that a vaccine might be available before the election, his Democratic rival Joe Biden has expressed scepticism that Mr Trump will listen to scientists and implement a transparent process.
 

DelayRepay

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This news is unfortunate, but perhaps not unexpected. Finding problems is the purpose of the trial, and it doesn't mean the vaccine is useless. It is even possible that the "unexplained illness" is not related to the vaccine.

So unfortunate, but not yet a disaster.
 

Bantamzen

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This news is unfortunate, but perhaps not unexpected. Finding problems is the purpose of the trial, and it doesn't mean the vaccine is useless. It is even possible that the "unexplained illness" is not related to the vaccine.

So unfortunate, but not yet a disaster.

Indeed, but for those politicians trying to play towards a vaccine end game this is a real problem, and why we shouldn't hang all our hopes on one.
 

AdamWW

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This news is unfortunate, but perhaps not unexpected. Finding problems is the purpose of the trial, and it doesn't mean the vaccine is useless. It is even possible that the "unexplained illness" is not related to the vaccine.

So unfortunate, but not yet a disaster.

I think it's a bit more likely than "even possible". The more people you vaccinate in a trial, the more the chance of an unconnected hospital admission. Note the quote: "Such events are routine in major trials, and happen any time a volunteer is admitted to hospital when the cause of their illness is not immediately apparent." I.e. currently they are not suggesting there is any connection with the vaccine...but they presumably want to make as sure as they can be that there isn't.

Indeed, but for those politicians trying to play towards a vaccine end game this is a real problem, and why we shouldn't hang all our hopes on one.

Or maybe this is indeed as claimed a routine event in such trails?
 

Bantamzen

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I think it's a bit more likely than "even possible". The more people you vaccinate in a trial, the more the chance of an unconnected hospital admission. Note the quote: "Such events are routine in major trials, and happen any time a volunteer is admitted to hospital when the cause of their illness is not immediately apparent." I.e. currently they are not suggesting there is any connection with the vaccine...but they presumably want to make as sure as they can be that there isn't.



Or maybe this is indeed as claimed a routine event in such trails?

It probably is, but it also highlights why vaccines can't be "fast-tracked" as so many governments around the world seem to want. Every single side effect, every single illness that affects any participants. And it highlights why we cannot pin our hopes purely on any vaccine, and have to relearn how to mitigate within society without punitive & damaging regulations as we are currently seeing.
 

Huntergreed

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It probably is, but it also highlights why vaccines can't be "fast-tracked" as so many governments around the world seem to want. Every single side effect, every single illness that affects any participants. And it highlights why we cannot pin our hopes purely on any vaccine, and have to relearn how to mitigate within society without punitive & damaging regulations as we are currently seeing.
Absolutely, we cannot base an exit strategy around obtaining a vaccine, as doing so is just committing economic suicide and going to lead to rushed vaccines (which Hancock has already said is being considered to be made compulsory). It’s really really not good what has happened here, we must change to a strategy of putting in place sensible, proportionate mitigations to ensure at no point hospital admissions are above NHS capacity, but other than that we simply have to let it spread and run society as close to normal as possible (which, right now, just isn’t happening)
 

DB

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Or maybe this is indeed as claimed a routine event in such trails?

Maybe it is - but it highlights the point that vaccines shouldn't be rushed and are not guaranteed to be a success - hence basing a strategy on there definitely being a viable vaccine within a fairly short timeframe is extremely risky.
 

adc82140

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There needs to be more focus on treatment. Take HIV- decades on there is still no vaccine, but we have effective treatments.
 

DB

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which Hancock has already said is being considered to be made compulsory

Has he? I've seen the mentions of it being rushed and ignoring some of the normal safeguards, but not any mention of it being compulsory.
 

Mag_seven

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Good news, the Oxford vaccine trials will resume:

On Tuesday, AstraZeneca said the studies were being paused while it investigated whether the reported side effect was connected with the vaccine.

But on Saturday, Oxford University said it had been deemed safe to continue.

The vaccine is seen as a strong contender among dozens being developed.

Oxford University said in a statement that it was "expected" that "some participants will become unwell" in large trials like this one.

The government's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, echoed this view, telling a Downing Street press conference on Wednesday what had happened in the Oxford trial was not unusual.


Trials of a Covid-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University will resume after it was paused due to a reported side effect in a patient in the UK.
 

radamfi

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Is there anything particularly special about the Oxford vaccine? I thought there were dozens of potential vaccines currently in development.
 

Dent

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Is there anything particularly special about the Oxford vaccine? I thought there were dozens of potential vaccines currently in development.
I think the Oxford vaccine is the one closest to completing its trial.
 

GRALISTAIR

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Yew

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I think the Oxford vaccine is the one closest to completing its trial.
Indeed, it was one of the first out the blocks, and is based on a modified adenovirus (sp?) platform, a technology which has previous approvals for ebola.
 

Richard Scott

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Indeed, it was one of the first out the blocks, and is based on a modified adenovirus (sp?) platform, a technology which has previous approvals for ebola.
Believe it's based on a previously developed vaccine so they weren't starting from scratch? Can someone elaborate on this?
 

AdamWW

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Believe it's based on a previously developed vaccine so they weren't starting from scratch? Can someone elaborate on this?

It was developed as a generic vaccine for yet-to-be-discovered diseases ("disease X")

As I understand it, you use part of the genetic code of the virus to tailor it to produce something on the outside of the virus that anti-bodies can latch onto.

(I think I read somewhere that they started it using the genetic code determined by Chinese scientists, without actually having any physical copy of the virus).
 

initiation

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On a related note. Hidden away is this consultation on (unlicenced) vaccines, liability, and expanding the number of people who can administer them.

 
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Howardh

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Glad to see the trials have resumed after a triallist fell ill. Good news!
 

anthony263

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Hopefully they can hurry up and get this vaccine developed quickly and introduced especially as sooner as its rolled out sooner we can get rod of these stupid restrictions
 

Bantamzen

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Hopefully they can hurry up and get this vaccine developed quickly and introduced especially as sooner as its rolled out sooner we can get rod of these stupid restrictions

Whilst a vaccine would be good news, we neither want it rushed nor should we be pinning all our hopes on it.
 
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AdamWW

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Whilst a vaccine would be good news, we neither want it rushed nor should we be pinning all our hopes on it.

I would have thought that stopping the entire trial because one participant became ill suggests a certain level of prudence.

(Unless you're cynical enough to think that it was all done to reassure people - personally I'm not that cynical).
 
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