Paddington to Plymouth in 2.5 hours?

[irish_rail]

The chicken in that case would have to be the industrial revolution, since Preston connects to the mill towns of Blackburn, Accrington and Burnley, whilst also linking to the major seaside destinations of Southport and Blackpool. No one would say that Plymouth does not offer connections to nice seaside, arguably Newton Abbott and Exeter are the actual connection points (or stations west of Plymouth).

It would be great if there were more trains to everywhere, but I suspect that Plymouth is not top of the untapped market list. I hope I am wrong though and GWR do start adding more fast services rather than take this one away again.

Well we are certainly in agreement then on your second paragraph.

 

[Irascible]

The chicken in that case would have to be the industrial revolution

In Plymouth's case that'd be Devonport base, but since the RN is now a miniscule fraction of what it was that's not exactly a huge driver of traffic... and that wouldn't all come from London anyway. It is rather hung out there - even Exeter is rather hung out but it has managed to position itself as a somewhat attractive place for businesses to shift to ( even if it's also creaking at the seams ). That slow crawl over the foothills of Dartmoor doesn't do Plymouth any favours and I guess Exeter's ability to call the entirety of Devon east of Dartmoor it's suburbs helps too. Plymouth council seem to be investigating reopening the airport ( again ) although that might be just an attempt to squeeze cash out of Sutton.

https://www.railwaydata.co.uk/stations/overview/?TLC=PLY - the top 5 destinations are interesting reading though ( if that's actual ORR data & not just someone massaging numbers ). I'd assume a fair chunk of Exeter traffic is not staying in Exeter, but having local destinations be that high is unlike the other big stations.

 

[brad465]

The difference being there is decent custom from Plymouth right through Cornwall which easily rivals that of the singular destination of Glasgow when looked at in total. Penzance is just a small part of that overall picture. I'm not suggesting removing stops in Cornwall.
The first stop Preston stuff may have ended, but the reality is the first stop Plymouth service will be very popular. Preston is a much smaller place than Plymouth for one thing and less of a destination.

Preston has nearly double the rail users as Plymouth. It may not be the most beautiful place, but it's a very connected one - and it's certainly more of a 'destination' in rail terms - which is why we are all on RailUKForums - than Plymouth is.

I thought the main reason Preston was served on that train was as a crew change point? Is the rationale behind the pickup only call at Exeter somewhat driven by crew reasons as well?

 

[irish_rail]

I thought the main reason Preston was served on that train was as a crew change point? Is the rationale behind the pickup only call at Exeter somewhat driven by crew reasons as well?

No as it is a Plymouth driver. Exeter stop is for the westbound passengers from there.

 

[cle]

I thought the main reason Preston was served on that train was as a crew change point? Is the rationale behind the pickup only call at Exeter somewhat driven by crew reasons as well?

That was part of it, but I suspect it would have called always. Glasgow is not Edinburgh, and demand doesn't fill an hourly Euston Pendo by itself, sadly. Carlisle is even less consequential than Preston.

So the service needs it. It also needs Wigan/Warrington, arguably - but I think those could be covered by another - and a Lakes call or two. Lancaster has far more passengers to London than Carlisle does.

Preston also infuses a lot of northerners to Glasgow, especially Merseyside who don't/didn't have regular services (3tpd aside) - but Lancs as a whole.

And that service also skips Crewe, so it might pick up other folks, e.g. in the hour when the Euston/Wolves/Scot goes to Edinburgh instead.

 

[stevieinselby]

I wonder what the effect on numbers of passengers would be if journeys to Cornwall got speeded up by 15 minutes vs journeys to Taunton and Tiverton getting much slower (which they would if they all went to Westbury etc.). Positive or negative? Both in passenger numbers and revenue

From the 2022/23 stats based on journeys to/from London Paddington, the West Country stacks up as:
Exeter: 262k
Plymouth: 134k
Taunton: 130k
Tiverton: 84k
Totnes: 69k
Newton Abbot: 58k
Truro: 46k
Penzance: 46k
Bodmin: 32k
Barnstaple: 22k
St Austell: 21k
Torquay: 17k
St Ives: 15k
Paignton: 13k
Redruth: 13k
Newquay: 13k
Liskeard: 11k
Exmouth: 10k

So more passengers to/from Exeter than Taunton and Tiverton, and more than twice as many passengers continuing beyond Exeter as going to Exeter (albeit those making connections might not see a smooth increase in journey times depending on whether they get to jump to an earlier connecting service).
But proportionally 15 minutes on a journey to Taunton has a lot more impact than 15 minutes on a journey to Truro.

 

[stuu]

From the 2022/23 stats based on journeys to/from London Paddington, the West Country stacks up as:
Exeter: 262k
Plymouth: 134k
Taunton: 130k
Tiverton: 84k
Totnes: 69k
Newton Abbot: 58k
Truro: 46k
Penzance: 46k
Bodmin: 32k
Barnstaple: 22k
St Austell: 21k
Torquay: 17k
St Ives: 15k
Paignton: 13k
Redruth: 13k
Newquay: 13k
Liskeard: 11k
Exmouth: 10k

So more passengers to/from Exeter than Taunton and Tiverton, and more than twice as many passengers continuing beyond Exeter as going to Exeter (albeit those making connections might not see a smooth increase in journey times depending on whether they get to jump to an earlier connecting service).
But proportionally 15 minutes on a journey to Taunton has a lot more impact than 15 minutes on a journey to Truro.

Is that based on ticket sales from Paddington? I'm pretty sure that tickets to Paddington from Taunton are something like 50% of all journeys from there which would be a lot more than 130k

 

[irish_rail]

Is that based on ticket sales from Paddington? I'm pretty sure that tickets to Paddington from Taunton are something like 50% of all journeys from there which would be a lot more than 130k

Anecdotally, Taunton custom is well down, it's one of those platforms I consistently am surprised at how few are boarding London bound. Its possible it's the services I'm working , but I do a fairly broad selection of trains. To me it seems Taunton custom is well down compared with pre covid, though as I say, just basing that on personal observation. Same with Newton Abbot as it happens.

 

[stuu]

Anecdotally, Taunton custom is well down, it's one of those platforms I consistently am surprised at how few are boarding London bound. Its possible it's the services I'm working , but I do a fairly broad selection of trains. To me it seems Taunton custom is well down compared with pre covid, though as I say, just basing that on personal observation. Same with Newton Abbot as it happens.

The stats (22/23) show its down about 15% pre covid, where Exeter and others are back to where they were... anecdotally as well, when I catch the train, you don't see anything like as many groups of people obviously off to business meetings in London, which there used to be loads of in the past. I guess those are the lost passengers, and revenue

 

[JamesRowden]

A relatively simple way to make the London to Plymouth 'effective journey time' 15 mintues faster would be to operate the express services every 30 minutes rather than every hour. The 2 hourly Paddington to Exeter/Paignton service could also b replaced by an hourly Reading to Taunton non-intetcity service.

GWR having a decent sized fleet of 5-Car intercity sets means that the length of these services could be optimised against demand during the day/week.

I think the only items needed for GWR to provide such a service would be:

• Some extra non-intetcity stock (to free up intercity stock which is p
• resently being used on non-intercity services)
• Some more drivers, for which their salary should not be too significant relative to the ticket revenue of the passengers on board.
• 2tph of via Taunton paths between Paddington and Reading rather than the present setup of 1tph some hours and 2tph others.

 

[dk1]

[*]Some more drivers, for which their salary should not be too significant relative to the ticket revenue of the passengers on board.

[/LIST]

Are you suggesting drivers on these services have a reduced salary/conditions?

 

[JamesRowden]

Are you suggesting drivers on these services have a reduced salary/conditions?

No. I am suggesting that ~£30 per hour divided by an average loading of say 150 passengers makes 20p per passenger hour. Small change compared to a £60-£90 fare for a say 5 hour total journey time. 20p times 5 divided by £60 is 1.667%. Which I think is 'not too significant'.

 

[dk1]

No. I am suggesting that ~£30 per hour divided by an average loading of say 150 passengers makes 20p per passenger hour. Small change compared to a £60-£90 fare for a say 5 hour total journey time. 20p times 5 divided by £60 is 1.667%. Which I think is 'not too significant'.

Phew!!! I read that that drivers on those trains would not be on the same rate of pay & full T&Cs of other GWR main line drivers. Thanks for confirming.

 

[irish_rail]

No. I am suggesting that ~£30 per hour divided by an average loading of say 150 passengers makes 20p per passenger hour. Small change compared to a £60-£90 fare for a say 5 hour total journey time. 20p times 5 divided by £60 is 1.667%. Which I think is 'not too significant'.

Sssshhh don't be telling people that actually the driver contributes very little to the cost of the journey, the Dft won't like it!!!

 

[brad465]

A relatively simple way to make the London to Plymouth 'effective journey time' 15 mintues faster would be to operate the express services every 30 minutes rather than every hour. The 2 hourly Paddington to Exeter/Paignton service could also b replaced by an hourly Reading to Taunton non-intetcity service.

GWR having a decent sized fleet of 5-Car intercity sets means that the length of these services could be optimised against demand during the day/week.

I think the only items needed for GWR to provide such a service would be:

• Some extra non-intetcity stock (to free up intercity stock which is p
• resently being used on non-intercity services)
• Some more drivers, for which their salary should not be too significant relative to the ticket revenue of the passengers on board.
• 2tph of via Taunton paths between Paddington and Reading rather than the present setup of 1tph some hours and 2tph others.

Nice as that is, two pathing issues come to mind:

1) Mendip Quarry freight is plentiful on that route as far as Frome/Bruton.
2) Castle Cary to Cogload Jn has very poor signal spacing currently; it's not uncommon for a fast train to catchup a stopping Exeter train in the down direction simply because it can take over 5 minutes to clear the block to Somerton.

 

[irish_rail]

Nice as that is, two pathing issues come to mind:

1) Mendip Quarry freight is plentiful on that route as far as Frome/Bruton.
2) Castle Cary to Cogload Jn has very poor signal spacing currently; it's not uncommon for a fast train to catchup a stopping Exeter train in the down direction simply because it can take over 5 minutes to clear the block to Somerton.

And that second point is so frustrating as it is such a common occurrence (for the fast to catch the stopper). I find it hard to believe that one additional signal section being added in around Keinton Mandeville wouldn't provide good value for money in comparison with some rail projects that do get funded and cost way more for less benefit.

 

[The Planner]

And that second point is so frustrating as it is such a common occurrence (for the fast to catch the stopper). I find it hard to believe that one additional signal section being added in around Keinton Mandeville wouldn't provide good value for money in comparison with some rail projects that do get funded and cost way more for less benefit.

There is no tangible benefit, unless it either provides a journey time improvement or capacity then its going to struggle.

 

[JamesRowden]

Nice as that is, two pathing issues come to mind:

1) Mendip Quarry freight is plentiful on that route as far as Frome/Bruton.
2) Castle Cary to Cogload Jn has very poor signal spacing currently; it's not uncommon for a fast train to catchup a stopping Exeter train in the down direction simply because it can take over 5 minutes to clear the block to Somerton.

60mph freight trains seem to only take 30 minutes longer between the junction at Westbury and Taunton. Therefore only one passing loop would be required on that section since Westbury and Taunton should also offer overtaking opportunities.

 

[brad465]

60mph freight trains seem to only take 30 minutes longer between the junction at Westbury and Taunton. Therefore only one passing loop would be required on that section since Westbury and Taunton should also offer overtaking opportunities.

The quarry freight trains pretty much all go towards London, not Taunton. The main passing loops are at Woodborough, between Westbury and Pewsey. Newbury, Hungerford and Theale also have them, although they are only in one direction or in the case of Newbury, heavily utilised by passenger trains. To increase the frequency you would probably need to do something akin to Didcot-Swindon, by having extended/dynamic loops somewhere.

 

[JamesRowden]

The quarry freight trains pretty much all go towards London, not Taunton. The main passing loops are at Woodborough, between Westbury and Pewsey. Newbury, Hungerford and Theale also have them, although they are only in one direction or in the case of Newbury, heavily utilised by passenger trains. To increase the frequency you would probably need to do something akin to Didcot-Swindon, by having extended/dynamic loops somewhere.

Sounds like plenty of passing loops on that section since there would be only an every 30 minute express service and an hourly stopper west of Newbury. And only the hourly Paddington electric service would terminate at Newbury.

 

[irish_rail]

There is no tangible benefit, unless it either provides a journey time improvement or capacity then its going to struggle.

The tangible benefit would be a massive increase in ontime arrivals in the down direction. Or does the railway not care about running to time anymore?

 

[The Planner]

The tangible benefit would be a massive increase in ontime arrivals in the down direction. Or does the railway not care about running to time anymore?

Depends what is causing the delay. The fasts are 8 minutes behind at Athelney. If the stopper is losing time, or the fast is gaining, you fix that, not the signalling.

 

[irish_rail]

Depends what is causing the delay. The fasts are 8 minutes behind at Athelney. If the stopper is losing time, or the fast is gaining, you fix that, not the signalling.

Well the way to stop it is to retime the stopper. The timetable may work theoretically, but it only works theoretically. Because the way drivers are required to drive nowadays, added to the probability of an engine being out plus at least one TSR equals the fast catching the stopper. If the stopper could leave just a few minutes earlier from London it would be a game changer, but it seems that isn't likely to happen due to pathing issues. Whether or not these pathing issues could be rejigged I don't know , but from the coal face, I can categorically say something needs to be altered if we are serious about improving right time running on the Pad to Pz route..

 

[brad465]

There is no tangible benefit, unless it either provides a journey time improvement or capacity then its going to struggle.

Extra signal blocks would provide more capacity, especially if a new station around Somerton-Langport gets off the ground.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Well the way to stop it is to retime the stopper. The timetable may work theoretically, but it only works theoretically. Because the way drivers are required to drive nowadays, added to the probability of an engine being out plus at least one TSR equals the fast catching the stopper. If the stopper could leave just a few minutes earlier from London it would be a game changer, but it seems that isn't likely to happen due to pathing issues. Whether or not these pathing issues could be rejigged I don't know , but from the coal face, I can categorically say something needs to be altered if we are serious about improving right time running on the Pad to Pz route..

If the pathing can be rejigged, I can think of one obvious way of fitting the fasts around the slows.

Send the semi fast out of Paddington first and have the fast come past it at Newbury or Westbury, for example.

However... that does introduce a different variable into the risk in that you'd now be dependent on the semi fast getting into the platforms in time for the signals to clear without giving the fast an adverse aspect so I'm not convinced it would make a lot of difference overall. It could simply be replacing one potential source of an imported delay with another...

 

[irish_rail]

If the pathing can be rejigged, I can think of one obvious way of fitting the fasts around the slows.

Send the semi fast out of Paddington first and have the fast come past it at Newbury or Westbury, for example.

However... that does introduce a different variable into the risk in that you'd now be dependent on the semi fast getting into the platforms in time for the signals to clear without giving the fast an adverse aspect so I'm not convinced it would make a lot of difference overall. It could simply be replacing one potential source of an imported delay with another...

I don't think that would work, as for example the stopper is supposed to provide Cornish connections into the fast, so really needs to be able to keep infront of it.
OK, I'm no planner, but I just feel with a little imagination someone should be able to come up with a way of allowing the stopper to leave London 5 to 10 minutes earlier. That would be the cheapest and easiest solution to the issue if money isn't there for an additional signal section.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I don't think that would work, as for example the stopper is supposed to provide Cornish connections into the fast, so really needs to be able to keep infront of it.
OK, I'm no planner, but I just feel with a little imagination someone should be able to come up with a way of allowing the stopper to leave London 5 to 10 minutes earlier. That would be the cheapest and easiest solution to the issue if money isn't there for an additional signal section.

It's half hourly below Exeter towards Penzance now isn't it? Which means you could simply feed the intermediate stops into a different train at Exeter with no overall journey time impacts?

As the purpose of the thread is to discuss and suggest ways of speeding up the times beyond Plymouth to and from London, we should at least look at whether such options would make a difference or if they would simply move the causes of delay from one location to another?

 

[irish_rail]

It's half hourly below Exeter towards Penzance now isn't it? Which means you could simply feed the intermediate stops into a different train at Exeter with no overall journey time impacts?

As the purpose of the thread is to discuss and suggest ways of speeding up the times beyond Plymouth to and from London, we should at least look at whether such options would make a difference or if they would simply move the causes of delay from one location to another?

I guess if it where possible to hold the semi fast at Westbury it could work, but I doubt there is platform capacity there to do that.
Also Exeter to Penzance is definitely not half hourly most of the day, you'd need to get to Plymouth for that, which is a problem as most of the semis during the daytime go to either Exeter or Paignton.

 

[The Planner]

Extra signal blocks would provide more capacity, especially if a new station around Somerton-Langport gets off the ground.

Capacity for what though? If a new station requires it then it gets factored into its cost. You don't add blocks in just for the sake of it if another solution is available.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I guess if it where possible to hold the semi fast at Westbury it could work, but I doubt there is platform capacity there to do that.
Also Exeter to Penzance is definitely not half hourly most of the day, you'd need to get to Plymouth for that, which is a problem as most of the semis during the daytime go to either Exeter or Paignton.

For Westbury, it wouldn't need to be long hold if they timed it right because of the avoiding line? just need to get the semi fast onto the station loop in enough time for the fast to not get an adverse aspect before it comes past on the avoider.

Exeter to Plymouth... well... if they were to re-write the timetable anyway to allow these faster services we are speculating on ( of course we can't get near the 2½ hours of the thread title anyway ) then hopefully they'd rejig the Exeter to Plymouth bit as well...