[Poll] Conservative leadership challenge, predictions.

[najaB]

So, leadership challenge launched: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739

UK Prime Minister Theresa May will face a vote of confidence in her leadership later on Wednesday.

Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, Mrs May said: "I will contest that vote with everything I have got."

She said a new prime minister would have to scrap or extend Article 50, the mechanism taking Britain out of the EU on 29 March, "delaying or even stopping Brexit".

Conservative MPs will vote from 18:00 GMT to 20:00 GMT.

A result is expected fairly quickly after the voting finishes.

What do you think the likely outcome will be?

 

[trash80]

May will win, narrowly. But will stay on unlike The Thatch and blunder into a new set of daily crises next year.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A big concern I have about this is that it's been launched precisely to render the Government impotent at an important time, and thus force a no-deal Brexit by default.

 

[najaB]

A big concern I have about this is that it's been launched precisely to render the Government impotent at an important time, and thus force a no-deal Brexit by default.

Indeed. Not only are the current lot failing to arrange a drinking party at the brewery, but they've also set the place on fire.

Whatever the outcome, I hope it's conclusive.

 

[Spamcan81]

All schemed by Boris I reckon. A man who in my opinion would rather be captain of the Titanic after it’s hit the iceberg than be an able seaman on the Carpathia steaming to the rescue. He just wants to be the boss and sod the consequences. It won’t matter to him if we get a “no deal” as he’ll be insulated against the fall out and can bugger off when the going gets tough.

 

[hexagon789]

I think May will win comfortably enough. I have to say that while I did not support Mrs May during the last Conservative Party leadership election (I supported Andrea Leadsom instead), I have thought about it and I would support May to stay.

I think the instability of a leadership contest and subsequently potentially a new Prime Minster and cabinet or even, dare I say it, another General Election are the last thing needed just now.

 

[nlogax]

Reckon she'll win and stay on until either Brexit finally happens or postponed / cancelled.

A government of national unity wouldn't go amiss right now - not that any party considers the country above their own ambitions of power.

 

[bramling]

So, leadership challenge launched: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46535739


What do you think the likely outcome will be?

In the current climate anything could happen, however on balance I think May will win. Hard to say whether comfortable or not, but probably enough to see off the challenge. Then more of the same continues.

I can't see how a leadership election could work at the present time, with the March date approaching ad with Christmas in the meantime. It's another thing to damage people's faith in the politicians - the message I'm picking up at work is "why can't they just get on with what they've been elected to do?".

 

[Darandio]

She wins and she wins comfortably. Then we all wake up tomorrow morning in the same sorry mess.

 

[Kite159]

I reckon it will be 60/40 in terms of support, with May hanging on until March when she decides she has had enough & retires

 

[tbtc]

May has been on borrowed time for almost two and a half years - ever week she seems to have only 48 hours to save her job and somehow scrapes through - so I'm not going to predict her demise this time because she seems to be good at two things (surviving in her job and keeping the Tories together) - though I wish she were good at other things too.

I think that the "rebels" have a major problem (no, not their ability to count up to forty eight, which makes me doubt their other skills) - the Tory party seem to dislike the people who betray the PM - e.g. Heseltine was a good candidate against Thatcher but they didn't like him because he was the one who drew the knife on her - so if Rees Mogg/ Johnson are seen to be scheming too much then I wouldn't be surprised if they are rejected in a vote in favour of someone who kept their powder dry (as Major did - with his conveniently timed Dentist appointment in 1990). The public might like Johnson as a figure of fun on HIGNFY but do MPs really trust him?

There's also the issue that a large part of the Brexit myth lies in being able to portray it as a "betrayal" - which is why Johnson/ Davis/ Raab/ Farage etc would rather snipe from the backbenches (or LBC studio) than actually take the difficult decisions as leaders - if they sit on their hands a bit longer then they can spread the myth that "Brexit would have been great, if only they'd given responsibility to people who actually believed in it", as if it were Fairies - that way you don't have to deal with any of the responsibility and nor do you have to accommodate the fact that the seventeen million people voting for change in 2016 were voting for lots of different types of change (some in favour of international free trade but some in favour of protectionism, some in favour of spending £350m/week on the NHS and some in favour of slashing public services, some in favour of turning the UK into Singapore, some in favour of turning the UK into Cuba...).

I wouldn't be surprised if they decide it's better to be seen to challenge May with a stalking horse but don't actually want to bring her down - at least that way they can keep pretending they'd have gotten away with (a perfect Brexit) if only it wasn't for that pesky meddlin' remainer!

A government of national unity wouldn't go amiss right now - not that any party considers the country above their own ambitions of power.

I'd be happy with that but, since we know that Corbyn won't share a platform with a Tory or be friends with one (though is perfectly happy sitting down with terrorists etc), any Labour MPs who join a "national unity" platform would be ostracised from their party - it'd be a convenient way for Corbyn to stay on the sidelines whilst expelling any "impure" MPs from the Labour party.

 

[DarloRich]

It is a sad world where the sight of the Tory party imploding over Europe INST a source of humour. Sadly, the ship of state is powering full speed ahead toward the iceberg and the Tory crew are arguing over which moron gets to hold the tiler as the crash happens.

We should keep May if only to stop one of the ERG clown towners taking over or clot Corbyn forcing a general election. Not one of them would be able to get a better deal. We have no power to force one.

God it is a sad time. Has British politics ever been so low and so devoid of talent?

 

[DarloRich]

I think that the "rebels" have a major problem (no, not their ability to count up to forty eight, which makes me doubt their other skills) - the Tory party seem to dislike the people who betray the PM - e.g. Heseltine was a good candidate against Thatcher but they didn't like him because he was the one who drew the knife on her - so if Rees Mogg/ Johnson are seen to be scheming too much then I wouldn't be surprised if they are rejected in a vote in favour of someone who kept their powder dry (as Major did - with his conveniently timed Dentist appointment in 1990). The public might like Johnson as a figure of fun on HIGNFY but do MPs really trust him?

it is slightly different these days. You no longer need the "stalking horse" candidate to force the issue. The vote of no confidence is enough. It is knockout politics now. If she wins things are over. If she loses she is out. That allows all the slimy tory types to slither out of the wood work and try for the top job.

Mogg, although a simpleton stuck in the past, isnt stupid enough to think he would be accepted by the populace. Johnson is different as his hubris is such that he considers himself a titan loved by all. Most of us know he is a cad, a charlatan and a spiv. Most of the MPs seem to detest him so while he may win a vote amoungst the aged Colonel Tufton Buftons who make up the Tory membership he wont get enough votes from his colleagues to win. Gove will see to that.

There's also the issue that a large part of the Brexit myth lies in being able to portray it as a "betrayal" - which is why Johnson/ Davis/ Raab/ Farage etc would rather snipe from the backbenches (or LBC studio) than actually take the difficult decisions as leaders - if they sit on their hands a bit longer then they can spread the myth that "Brexit would have been great, if only they'd given responsibility to people who actually believed in it

They are perpetuating the stab in the back myth. Just in case.

 

[HH]

ReeSmugg sees himself as Kingmaker, not King.

 

[DarloRich]

Agreed - the prospect of being the éminence grise arouses him no end! Johnson considers himself Roi Soleil in the manner of Louis XIV!

I think May will win and it seems strange the ERG have shot their bolt so early - unless the idea is to force a no deal brexit

 

[507021]

I think May will win and stay as PM.

 

[433N]

I think she'll lose and Arlene Foster will take over as the 'voice of reason' candidate.

 

[Cowley]

I’m pretty sure she’ll win, and she’ll just carry on as she has done throughout her leadership - A bit like she’s tripped on something while carrying a heavy load of plates and hasn’t been able to hold them in a strong stable way since, no matter how much she tells everyone that she’s got this.
As others have said though, what happens when her deal gets voted down remains to be seen

 

[Ianno87]

I think May will win with some, but not complete, comfort.

If May does get toppled and triggers a leadership election, I hope that sense prevails and Article 50 is withdrawn (even if only temporarily). It'd be outright irresponsible to spend precious weeks being distracted by this and to plough on towards 29th March without a clear resolution/strategy to avoid No Deal.

But then I have very little faith in government to act with any degree of sense any more...

 

[Bletchleyite]

If May does get toppled and triggers a leadership election, I hope that sense prevails and Article 50 is withdrawn (even if only temporarily). It'd be outright irresponsible to spend precious weeks being distracted by this and to plough on towards 29th March without a clear resolution/strategy to avoid No Deal.

I'm more than a little concerned that at least some people are actively trying to use a challenge in that way - render the Government impotent, then nothing can stop a "no deal".

 

[433N]

As others have said though, what happens when her deal gets voted down remains to be seen

But if she wins, she can't be challenged for a year.

 

[Cowley]

But if she wins, she can't be challenged for a year.

Indeed

 

[trash80]

Well it looks like the insipid provincial racist may survive another day, in return for saying she won't fight the next election.

 

[DarloRich]

however social media and commentators are saying team May are getting a bit twitchy and have been wheeling in people who previously had the whip withdrawn.

I think she will win but i am not sure she will survive.

 

[bnm]

(though is perfectly happy sitting down with terrorists etc)

Not forgetting of course that both John Major and Tony Blair sat down with terrorists.

 

[Basher]

I think she brought it on herself. She surrendered to the EU before negotiations started. If she strode up to them and said if I do not get a good deal we will just walk away. I think now she should say the people do not like whats on the table, and we are walking away. If you want to talk please telephone me.
I'm not a May supporter but no matter who went to the EU they would come back with their tail between their legs.
I fell let down how such a corrupt organisation as the EU can belittle this great UNITED KINGDOM.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I fell let down how such a corrupt organisation as the EU can belittle this great UNITED KINGDOM.

Our Government deserves to be belittled - it's a joke. More than ever it's apparent that it's really the Civil Service who are keeping things going.

 

[Ken H]

So she wins tonight.
(Remember this is purely Tory party affair)
Then Corbyn puts in a no confidence motion.
The government may lose that, because the DUP may well abstain over the backstop.
so then the government have 14 days to get the DUP back on side and win a new confidence vote. Or its a General election
And its Christmas!

And the clock ticking towards 29th march......

 

[507021]

I think she brought it on herself. She surrendered to the EU before negotiations started. If she strode up to them and said if I do not get a good deal we will just walk away. I think now she should say the people do not like whats on the table, and we are walking away. If you want to talk please telephone me.
I'm not a May supporter but no matter who went to the EU they would come back with their tail between their legs.
I fell let down how such a corrupt organisation as the EU can belittle this great UNITED KINGDOM.

It was obvious from the start that if the UK voted to leave, then it would be on the EU's terms.

It is the exact same if you leave a job, you leave on your employer's terms.

 

[Ken H]

Our Government deserves to be belittled - it's a joke. More than ever it's apparent that it's really the Civil Service who are keeping things going.

Oily Robbins....