• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

[Poll] Conservative leadership challenge, predictions.

What outcome do you predict?

  • Comfortable win

    Votes: 16 22.9%
  • Slim win but May remains PM

    Votes: 43 61.4%
  • Slim win but May steps down

    Votes: 8 11.4%
  • Bad loss

    Votes: 3 4.3%
  • Other?

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    70
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ken H

On Moderation
Joined
11 Nov 2018
Messages
6,306
Location
N Yorks
It was obvious from the start that if the UK voted to leave, then it would be on the EU's terms.

It is the exact same if you leave a job, you leave on your employer's terms.
no. we could have said, 'OK we leave on 29th march 2019. If you want to trade, where are your proposals?' The tories have been so fixated on the need for a deal they didnt use the obvious bargaining chip. Especially as the EU sell more to us than we do to them.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

507021

Established Member
Joined
19 Feb 2015
Messages
4,681
Location
Chester
no. we could have said, 'OK we leave on 29th march 2019. If you want to trade, where are your proposals?' The tories have been so fixated on the need for a deal they didnt use the obvious bargaining chip. Especially as the EU sell more to us than we do to them.

Did you seriously think we'd be able to leave the European Union on our terms?
 

Iskra

Established Member
Joined
11 Jun 2014
Messages
7,944
Location
West Riding
Hopefully she wins. I really fear for our economy if she loses. The alternatives are pretty dire.

(I'm not Pro-May, I just think she's a safe pair of hands compared to the rest and it's the best thing for the country at the moment).
 

cb a1

Member
Joined
9 Mar 2015
Messages
352
Did you seriously think we'd be able to leave the European Union on our terms?
It's the tinkerbell effect. If you really really believe hard enough then reality will magically bend to your will.
 

trash80

Established Member
Joined
18 Aug 2015
Messages
1,204
Location
Birches Green
It was obvious from the start that if the UK voted to leave, then it would be on the EU's terms.

It is the exact same if you leave a job, you leave on your employer's terms.

Well you can leave a job whenever you like, though you will have to face the consequences of your decision. You will probably struggle to get your ex-employer to provide you with a reference for example if you don't work your notice period. As it is with Brexit, we can leave how we like. But there will be consequences.
 

nlogax

Established Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
5,373
Location
Mostly Glasgow-ish. Mostly.
Have a feeling the ERG are about to be put back in their box for a bit..I have a feeling May's about to get a decent result.

Not that it'll help a vote for her deal.
 

A Challenge

Established Member
Joined
24 Sep 2016
Messages
2,823
Theresa May has won the vote of confidence, she is going to stay, 200 to 117.
 

dgl

Established Member
Joined
5 Oct 2014
Messages
2,412
Mogg now claiming that the only reason why people voted for her was because they were employed by her????
Hopefully a bit of wind has been taken out of the Moggsters for now.
 

bramling

Veteran Member
Joined
5 Mar 2012
Messages
17,772
Location
Hertfordshire / Teesdale
A fairly comfortable win of 200-117. I wonder if there'll be a reshuffle now?

Depends on one’s definition of comfortable of course. That’s still roughly a third of her MPs who don’t endorse her.

I’d say the result is in line with what we’d have expected. Now back to the issue of getting a deal through parliament...
 

hexagon789

Veteran Member
Joined
2 Sep 2016
Messages
15,791
Location
Glasgow
Depends on one’s definition of comfortable of course. That’s still roughly a third of her MPs who don’t endorse her.

I’d say the result is in line with what we’d have expected. Now back to the issue of getting a deal through parliament...

I would say comfortable in that it wasn't down to the wire. Though perhaps not as comfortable as she would've hoped for.

Yep, going to be hard going, very hard going I think.
 

trash80

Established Member
Joined
18 Aug 2015
Messages
1,204
Location
Birches Green
Mogg now claiming that the only reason why people voted for her was because they were employed by her????
Hopefully a bit of wind has been taken out of the Moggsters for now.

Wasn't it a secret ballot then?
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,150
Location
SE London
As one historical comparison: 200-117 (63% for her) is a better result than the 204-152 (57% for her) that Mrs. Thatcher got in the no confidence vote that (combined with advice from colleagues) made her decide she didn't have enough support to carry on as PM. But not massively better.
 

Howardh

Established Member
Joined
17 May 2011
Messages
8,180
Not quite an inning's win but good enough. So we're back to where we were before she pulled the vote, but at least the ERG can't strike again and are out of the way.
It does look like she will need the support of Labour to get her Brexit through.
 

DarloRich

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
29,304
Location
Fenny Stratford
May got 63% of the vote. Can the Tory clown towners now shut up and get on with sorting out Brexit? We wont get a say sadly so they need to sort this out.
 

A Challenge

Established Member
Joined
24 Sep 2016
Messages
2,823
Mogg now claiming that the only reason why people voted for her was because they were employed by her????
Hopefully a bit of wind has been taken out of the Moggsters for now.
He does have some of a point - the 'payroll vote' is a known thing when it comes to MPs voting.
 

nidave

Member
Joined
12 Jul 2011
Messages
923
Jacob RM there saying 63% isn't a big enough margin. - I think JRM does not get the irony.
 

bnm

Established Member
Joined
12 Oct 2009
Messages
4,996
If she survives, I'd like to see 48 letters of resignation.

Resignation from what? Parliament? Don't be silly. And 117 voted against her. Do they all resign as MPs?

100+ Conservative MPs triggering by-elections? If just six lost such a by-election then the government would fall.
 

ainsworth74

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Global Moderator
Joined
16 Nov 2009
Messages
27,683
Location
Redcar
Jacob RM there saying 63% isn't a big enough margin. - I think JRM does not get the irony.

I'm sure he does. But unlike Brexit the No Confidence vote doesn't make his funds millions of pounds.
 

nidave

Member
Joined
12 Jul 2011
Messages
923
Delivering BREXIT. That's what our country voted for.
Define brexit please.

I assume you mean leave everything including the CU and SM. If so how do you stop the GFA being rendered invalid and a hard border in N. Ireland and ROI.

How are you going to keep the lights on in n. Ireland as when the GFA becomes invalid the electricity supply gets cut until a deal is made. N. Ireland does not have enough local generating capacity and the link to gb can't take up the slack.
 

Iskra

Established Member
Joined
11 Jun 2014
Messages
7,944
Location
West Riding
Resignation from what? Parliament? Don't be silly. And 117 voted against her. Do they all resign as MPs?

100+ Conservative MPs triggering by-elections? If just six lost such a by-election then the government would fall.

Fair enough, good points.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,150
Location
SE London
Does this count as the first election that Theresa May has overall actually won as Prime Minister ;)

(First chosen unopposed as Conservative leader so no election. Then didn't quite win the subsequent general election...)
 

bnm

Established Member
Joined
12 Oct 2009
Messages
4,996
Does this count as the first election that Theresa May has overall actually won as Prime Minister ;)

(First chosen unopposed as Conservative leader so no election. Then didn't quite win the subsequent general election...)

She won her constituency election to remain MP for Maidenhead in the 2017 General Election.

Whilst MPs cease to be MPs after a dissolution of Parliament, by convention the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until the result of the General Election is known.
 

cactustwirly

Established Member
Joined
10 Apr 2013
Messages
7,455
Location
UK
She won her constituency election to remain MP for Maidenhead in the 2017 General Election.

Whilst MPs cease to be MPs after a dissolution of Parliament, by convention the Prime Minister remains Prime Minister until the result of the General Election is known.

Well it wasn't exactly hard for her to win Maidenhead! (Also where I'm registered to vote, so technically she's my local MP, although in practice Liz Kendall is for half the year!)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top